Aurelia Butler

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SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The dollar ebbed on Monday on renewed expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March, while the Chinese yuan struggled near a one-month low ahead of a slew of economic data this week.China’s fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), December industrial production, retail sales and unemployment rate are among the economic indicators out on Wednesday, which are likely to provide further clarity on the pace of recovery in the world’s second-largest economy.Traders also have their eye on a reading on UK inflation due later in the week, as the market focus remains on how soon major central banks globally could begin easing rates this year.The euro hovered near the $1.10 mark in early Asia trade, with the single currency last at $1.0946.Sterling stood near its two-week peak hit last week and last bought $1.2732, while the dollar index was flat at 102.50, having drifted largely sideways over the past couple of sessions.Bets for a Fed cut in March have gathered some steam after data on Friday showed U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in December, sending U.S. Treasury yields sliding in response. [US/]”We move past the US CPI and PPI releases and the market has become even more convinced that the Fed’s easing cycle starts in March, with a 25bp cut priced for every meeting from this starting point,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.Market pricing now points to a 78% chance that the U.S. central bank will begin easing rates in March, as compared to a 68% chance a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.In Asia, the yen remained under pressure at 145.04 per dollar on expectations that the Bank of Japan is likely to keep its ultra-loose policy settings unchanged at its upcoming policy meeting next week.The offshore yuan languished near a one-month low of 7.1925 per dollar hit on Friday, and was last at 7.1861 per dollar.China’s central bank is expected to ramp up liquidity injections and cut a key interest rate when it rolls over maturing medium-term policy loans on Monday, as authorities try to get the shaky economy back on more solid footing.”I think more PBOC (People’s Bank of China) easing is coming this year,” said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY).”I don’t think (Monday’s move) will materially weigh on the (yuan) because a rate cut is more or less priced in.”I’ll also watch out for the data dump from China… I expect the activity data and GDP figure to show weak momentum into the end of 2023.”The Australian dollar, often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan, edged 0.07% higher to $0.6690. The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.13% to $0.6233.”I think the risks are skewed to an even weaker signal from the Chinese economy and that could be a headwind for… risk currencies like the Aussie and kiwi,” said Kong.Elsewhere, the Taiwan dollar was little changed and last at 31.13 per dollar, after the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) Lai Ching-te won the presidency over the weekend, though his party lost its majority in parliament.Analysts expect Taiwan’s stock market to take a hit this week as the spectre of policy paralysis fuels selling in a market that is up 25% in little more than a year.”On net, we do not expect large post-election market moves, given the outcomes were broadly in line with polls, no major changes in economic policy, and likely limited impact on cross-strait trade,” said analysts at Goldman Sachs, who are neutral on the Taiwan dollar. More

(Reuters) – The combined fortunes of the world’s five richest men have more than doubled to $869 billion since 2020 while five billion people have been made poorer, anti-poverty group Oxfam said.An Oxfam report, which comes as business elites gather this week for the annual World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Davos, found that a billionaire is now either running, or is the main shareholder of, 7 out of 10 of the world’s biggest companies.Oxfam called on Monday for governments to rein in corporate power by breaking up monopolies; instituting taxes on excess profit and wealth; and promoting alternatives to shareholder control such as forms of employee ownership.It estimated that 148 top corporations made $1.8 trillion in profits, 52 percent up on 3-year average, allowing hefty pay-outs to shareholders even as millions of workers faced a cost of living crisis as inflation led to wage cuts in real terms.”This inequality is no accident; the billionaire class is ensuring corporations deliver more wealth to them at the expense of everyone else,” said Oxfam International interim Executive Director Amitabh Behar.The Davos events were launched to champion “stakeholder capitalism”, which the WEF says defines a corporation as being not just about maximising profits but fulfilling “human and societal aspirations as part of the broader social system”. Oxfam said its report, based on data sources ranging from the International Labour Organization and World Bank to the Forbes annual rich list, showed such aspirations were far from being fulfilled.”What we know for sure is that today’s extreme system of shareholder capitalism, which puts ever-increasing returns to rich shareholders above all other objectives, is driving inequality,” said Max Lawson, its Head of Inequality Policy.The inflation-adjusted surge in wealth of the top five billionaires was driven by strong gains in the assets of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk, LVMH chief Bernard Arnault, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)’s Jeff Bezos, Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) co-founder Larry Ellison and investor Warren Buffett. Meanwhile nearly 800 million workers saw their wages over the past two years fail to keep up with inflation, resulting on average in the equivalent of 25 days of lost annual income per worker, according to Oxfam’s analysis. Of the world’s 1,600 largest corporations, just 0.4% of them have publicly committed to paying workers a living wage and to supporting a living wage in their value chains, the study found. (Writing and reporting by Mark John; Editing by Alexander Smith) More

LONDON (Reuters) – Average asking prices for British homes made the strongest start to the year since 2020, according to a Rightmove (OTC:RTMVY) survey on Monday that added to signs that the slowdown in the sector could be easing as demand picked up in January.The average price of homes put on sale between Dec. 3 and Jan. 6 was 1.3% higher than the month before, the biggest December to January rise since 2020 and more than double the average increase for this time of year, Rightmove said.House prices in Britain typically pick up at the start of January after a lull in the run-up to Christmas.”For now the data at the start of 2024 points to building momentum, and reasons for growing market optimism,” Tim Bannister, director of property science at Rightmove, said.Rightmove said the number of agreed sales was 20% higher in the first week of January compared to the same period last year, and buyer demand was up 5%. The number of homes coming to the market rose by 15%. British house prices, like those in many other rich countries, surged during the COVID-19 pandemic, rising by more than 25% according to official data. But transactions slowed sharply in late 2022 after then-Prime Minister Liz Truss’ budget plans caused turmoil in bond markets, which pushed up the cost of mortgages, while rising Bank of England rates acted as a brake through 2023.Asking prices in Rightmove’s January period are still 0.7% lower than the year before.Average mortgage rates have fallen, however, from a peak of 6.11% for a five-year fixed term in July 2023 to 4.86% now, Rightmove said.Financial markets expect the Bank of England to start cutting rates from their current 15-year high of 5.25% in May.Other indicators have also shows a rise in house prices. Britain’s biggest mortgage lender Halifax earlier this month reported a 1.1% monthly increase in prices in December and the first annual rise in eight months That said, buyers were still likely to feel the squeeze from elevated mortgage rates and the cost-of-living crisis this year, Bannister said.And while the housing market appears to be gaining momentum, Bannister said activity was likely to slow in the weeks leading up to the national election which Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has suggested will be held in the second half of this year. More

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