Aurelia Butler

Since President Tayyip Erdogan won re-election in May, authorities have abandoned the unorthodox low interest rate policy in favour of a sharp policy tightening.The ratings agency said the policy pivot now improves the prospects for bringing down the country’s currently very high inflation rates to more sustainable levels, the agency said.”While headline inflation is likely to rise further in the near term, there are signs that inflation dynamics are starting to turn, indicative of monetary policy regaining credibility and effectiveness,” Moody’s said.Turkey’s annual inflation rate climbed to 64.77% in December, sustaining an upward trend that is expected to continue in coming months after a big rise in the minimum wage.The agency maintained Turkey’s ratings at “B3”. More

The inflation rate during the previous year clocked in at 234%, one of the highest inflation rates anywhere in the world.But Venezuela’s monthly inflation for December eased to just 2.4%, according to the bank.While Venezuela’s economy has suffered a prolonged meltdown marked by triple-digit inflation and a mass exodus of millions of migrants seeking better prospects elsewhere, its inflation rate is no longer Latin America’s steepest since Argentina’s sped past 200% last year. More

ACCRA (Reuters) -Ghana has reached a deal to restructure $5.4 billion of loans with its official creditors, the finance ministry said on Friday, a milestone in the country’s quest for debt relief as it charts its way out of the worst economic crisis in a generation.The agreement with bilateral lenders including China and France was key to unlocking new International Monetary Fund (IMF) financing and will allow Ghana to access another $600 million under its $3 billion bailout program.IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva welcomed the announcement in a statement, adding the agreement “clears the path for IMF Executive Board consideration” of the first review of Ghana’s program.The West African country, which defaulted on most of its overseas debt in December 2022 after debt servicing costs soared, restructured most of its local debt and also needs to reach a deal with private holders of about $13 billion in international bonds.”Thank you to our bilateral creditors for their support & cooperation, that has today enabled us to reach agreement with our Official Creditors on comprehensive debt treatment under the G20 Common Framework,” the office of Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta said on X.The ministry later published a statement saying terms were “expected to be formalized in a memorandum of understanding” which will be dealt with bilaterally with all creditors.An index tracking Ghana’s bonds had rallied this week, more than recovering the early year losses, partly as the market anticipated an agreement. Spreads in the benchmark index tightened to 2,828 basis points from 2,964 a week ago.The ministry said the agreement will support ongoing engagements with bondholders and other commercial creditors.”The Ghana agreement is in line with our expectations that we will see a number of EM countries emerge from default in 2024,” said Shamaila Khan, head of fixed income for emerging markets and Asia Pacific at UBS Asset Management.”Distressed EM sovereign hard currency debt will continue to be a sector that outperforms this year,” she added. CUT-OFF KEYThere was no mention of the “cut-off date” – the date after which new loans signed with bilateral creditors will not be restructured – which emerged recently as a stumbling block to an agreement.Two sources told Reuters earlier on Friday that Ghana’s official creditors had agreed to restructure debts that were extended to the country up until December 2022. The gold and cocoa producer aims to cut $10.5 billion from its external debt repayments and interest costs that were due from 2023 to 2026 and implement an IMF reform programme.Ghana first sent “working proposals” for the debt restructuring to the official creditor committee in June 2023, having been locked out of international capital markets and seeing inflation spiral in the lead-up to its default.Ghana is aiming to restructure $20 billion out of total external debt that was about $30 billion at the end of 2022, according to a government presentation to investors.The debt is being restructured under the Common Framework, a process set up during the COVID-19 pandemic by the Group of 20 economies.Chad, Ethiopia and Zambia have also made debt relief requests under the platform, which has seen slow talks due to coordination issues and disagreements over assessing comparability of treatment between different types of creditors. More

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Major U.S. banks reported lower profits on Friday in a choppy fourth quarter clouded by special charges and job cuts, with signs an income boost from high interest rates is waning and some consumer loans are starting to sour.Still, the country’s largest lenders JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Citigroup struck an upbeat tone on the economy, noting that American consumers remained resilient even as defaults on consumer loans began returning to pre-pandemic levels. “This has been a period of credit normalization but the banks have been well ahead in terms of their reserves,” said Mac Sykes, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, which holds shares in JPMorgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo. “The wild card will be how the economy tracks this year but the big banks are well situated to handle any stress.”The Federal Reserve hiked rates last year in a bid to tame inflation. But with price increases slowing, the potential pace of interest rate cuts this year, and whether the economy will avoid a recession, are the key questions hanging over markets. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), the biggest U.S. bank and a bellwether for the economy, said consumers were still spending and that the markets were expecting a soft landing, but warned government spending could continue to push prices higher.U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in December, with Americans paying more for shelter and healthcare.”This may lead inflation to be stickier and rates to be higher than markets expect,” Dimon said. He also warned Fed rate cuts could drain system liquidity, and that the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East could cause global disruptions. “These significant and somewhat unprecedented forces cause us to remain cautious,” he added. Wells Fargo Chief Financial Officer Mike Santomassimo also said rate cuts created more market uncertainty than usual.JPMorgan shares pared earlier gains and was down 0.27%. Citi gained 0.57%, while Bank of America fell 0.66% and Wells Fargo was down 3.09%. The industry-wide S&P 500 index was down 0.98%.The banks combined set aside more than $8 billion to refill the government’s deposit insurance fund (DIF), which took a $16 billion hit after Silicon Valley Bank and two other lenders failed last year. Citi, the most global U.S. bank which is in the throes of a huge reorganization, had a dismal quarter, swinging to a surprise $1.8 billion loss on the DIF charges and as it stockpiled cash to cover currency risks in Argentina and Russia. Citi will cut 20,000 jobs over the next two years, its CFO Mark Mason said. Wells Fargo, which has also been undergoing a turnaround to fix longstanding problems, reported a $969 million expense on job cuts, along with a $1.9 billion DIF charge. Bank of America also cut jobs last year, it said, bringing total cuts for the three banks to 17,700 in 2023. NII MIXEDBeyond one-off charges, the core revenue picture was mixed. High rates last year boosted banks’ net interest income (NII), the difference between what they earn from loans and pay to depositors, but that revenue driver looks to be flagging as the Fed pauses hikes, loan growth slows, and banks pay more to retain deposits.Bank of America’s profit more than halved on the DIF charge, a one-off hit on how it indexed some trades, and a 5% decline in its NII on higher deposit costs and as demand for loans stayed subdued amid high rates.Of the four, Wells Fargo was the only lender to post a jump in profits, which rose 9% thanks to cost cuts, beating analyst expectations. But NII fell 5%, and it warned that 2024 NII could be 7% to 9% lower than a year earlier due, in part, to lower rates and an expected decline in average loans.JPMorgan also put in a strong performance. Its quarterly profits fell 15%, but the Wall Street giant posted a record annual profit of $49.6 billion and a 19% jump in NII. “My biggest worry is (did) the benefit of interest rates already occur?,” David Wagner, portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors, which holds the four banks, wrote in an email.Investment banking was a bright spot, as the prospect of rate cuts has buoyed stock markets, and executives said deal pipelines looked robust. BofA’s investment banking fees were up 7%, while JPMorgan’s climbed 13% on strong equity and debt underwriting. Custody giant BNY Mellon (NYSE:BK) also beat analyst estimates on strong interest revenue. “We see some slowing in the U.S. economy potentially ahead, but not a recession,” BNY Mellon CEO Robin Vince told reporters. “To be able to pull off a perfect, immaculate landing without any other real repercussions in the economy…is a tough thing to do.”SOURING LOANSAll the lenders set aside more money to cover souring loans, and charge-offs – debts that are unlikely to be recovered – rose on some consumer loans.Charge-offs at Bank of America – which has the biggest consumer bank – rose to $1.2 billion from $931 million in the third quarter, mainly from credit cards and office real estate.Consumer delinquencies had declined during the pandemic, as government stimulus and lockdowns boosted consumer savings. JPMorgan Chase CFO Jeremy Barnum said that the bank’s consumer credit metrics, including credit cards, had returned to normal. Citi said U.S. personal banking credit costs were rising due to “continued normalization” of non performing credit card loans.Credit card loss rates are still below long run averages, according to ratings agency Fitch. Some analysts, however, said they would like to see banks putting more cash aside in case credit trends worsen.”I’m not super worried…but my preference is that banks build reserves in this environment,” said Chris Marinac, director of research at financial adviser Janney Montgomery Scott. More

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Rising income expenses pushed the Federal Reserve system deep into a record loss last year, the central bank said in preliminary figures released on Friday. Fed income after expenses came in at a negative $114.3 billion last year, versus $58.8 billion in positive income the year before. The loss was tied to a jump in interest expenses faced by the central bank amid a rate hike campaign aimed at cooling inflation. The Fed paid a mix of financial institutions $281.1 billion last year, versus $102.4 billion in 2022. Meanwhile, interest it earned from bonds the central bank owns totaled $163.8 billion last year, versus $170 billion in 2022. The Fed said operating expenses at the 12 regional banks, which are quasi private institutions overseen by the Fed Board of Governors, stood at $5.5 billion in 2023. The Fed pays banks, financial firms and other eligible money managers interest to park cash on the central bank’s books as part of how it implements monetary policy and controls short-term rates. Aggressive Fed rate increases, starting in the spring of 2022 when the central bank’s rate target was at near-zero levels, pushed that rate range to between 5.25% and 5.5% as of the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with the collective impact of those action ending the Fed’s streak of strong profitability. The Fed funds itself through interest it earns on securities it owns and via services it provides banks. Usually it is profitable and hands excess earnings back to the Treasury as required by law. When it loses money it books what it calls a deferred asset which tallies the loss, which the Fed expects to cover over time before again handing profits back to the Treasury. At the end of last year, the deferred asset stood at $133 billion, and as of Jan. 10, it stood at $136.9 billion. Forecasting how big the loss will be is challenging because it depends on what the Fed does with interest rates, as well as how much further it shrinks its holdings of the bonds it currently earns interest from. The Fed is almost certainly done raising rates based on officials’ comments and if markets are right the central bank may be cutting them by spring. Meanwhile, it may also be approaching the end game for balance sheet shrinkage. This could ultimately cap the losses, which until recently some analysts were putting in the $150 billion to $200 billion range. Meanwhile, recent research from the St. Louis Fed said it would likely take the Fed four or so years to cover its loss and start returning money to the Treasury. Losing money doesn’t impair the Fed’s ability to conduct monetary policy, officials have stressed repeatedly. At the same time, the Fed has yet to face any real political pushback over the losses. More

This article is an on-site version of our Disrupted Times newsletter. Sign up here to get the newsletter sent straight to your inbox three times a weekToday’s top storiesBlackRock is buying Global Infrastructure Partners for $12.5bn in a deal that creates the world’s second-biggest infrastructure firm and shakes up private market investing. BlackRock, already the world’s biggest money manager, said assets under management had surged above $10tn for the first time since 2021.In other Wall Street updates, Citigroup said it would cut 20,000 jobs after its worst quarter in 15 years; JPMorgan Chase reported record annual profits thanks to high interest rates; Morgan Stanley will pay $249mn to settle with US regulators over block trading charges; Bank of America final quarter profits fell nearly 60 per cent thanks to a charge tied to last year’s regional banking crisis; and earnings at Wells Fargo jumped 9 per cent, despite an increase in loan loss provisions.China’s military vowed to “smash” any Taiwan independence “plots”, sending a stark reminder of its threat to use force against the island just hours before Taiwanese voters head to the polls to elect a new president and parliament.For up-to-the-minute news updates, visit our live blogGood evening.US and UK military strikes against Iran-backed Houthi rebels have fuelled concerns of an escalation of conflict in the region and serious disruption to the global economy through higher oil prices and the flow of goods on one of the world’s most important trade routes.The action was ordered by US President Joe Biden after “unprecedented” attacks by the Yemen-based militants on commercial ships in the Red Sea. You can read more here about the Houthis’ background and learn more about the possibilities of the conflict widening in the Rachman Review podcast but as for the impact on the world economy, alarm bells are already ringing.Crude prices have risen, with one analyst commenting: “The fear in the oil market is that the region is on an unpredictable escalating path where at some point down the road supply of oil will indeed in the end be lost.” Markets were already jittery after Iran yesterday seized an oil tanker off the coast of Oman, just south of the Strait of Hormuz on the other side of the Arabian peninsula, the world’s most important oil shipping route.The disruption to trade is the most severe since the Covid-19 pandemic and has raised the costs of moving goods by sea to the highest levels recorded outside that period.Some shippers are turning to air freight, driving up prices: the average cost to fly 1kg of cargo from the Middle East to Europe has increased 35 per cent in the last month.For freight still moving by sea, diversions mean journeys are far longer, putting supply chains at risk for industries such as electronics and cars: Tesla has already suspended production at its Berlin plant. Container shipping lines started diverting around the Cape of Good Hope in November when Houthi rebels first began attacking ships on their way to and from the Suez Canal. Services between Asia and Europe are most affected, although some from Asia to the US east coast have also been hit.At the same time there have been big cuts to the capacity of the Panama Canal, another key route between Asia and the US east coast, thanks to a drought that has lowered water levels. Freight rates have not yet risen enough to affect consumer prices but that could change, as Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey told MPs this week. He highlighted the risk of higher shipping costs driving inflation back up. Vincent Clerc, head of shipping giant AP Møller-Maersk, speaking to the Financial Times yesterday before the US and UK strikes, said it could take months to reopen the Red Sea route, risking an economic and inflationary hit to the global economy. Clerc’s voice carries weight: Maersk is seen as a bellwether of global trade, carrying about a fifth of ocean freight. But whether the crisis heralds a severe blow to globalisation is doubtful, argues FT senior trade writer Alan Beattie. Barring a huge escalation in the conflict, supply chains, for the moment at least, appear to have enough slack to absorb the extra strain. Need to know: UK and Europe economyThe UK economy bounced back more than expected in November with growth of 0.3 per cent, lifted by the services sector, strong Black Friday sales and fewer strikes. London mayor Sadiq Khan has highlighted new research suggesting the economy is £140bn smaller because of Brexit and has 1.8mn fewer jobs — a drop of 4.8 per cent — than it would otherwise have had. Official statistics show UK life expectancy has fallen to 2010 levels.The UK is to publish a set of tests that need to be met to pass new laws on artificial intelligence rather than creating a tougher regulatory regime.A compromise between Brussels and Hungary has produced a four-year aid package for Ukraine. The UK is also increasing funding. Concerns have been raised in the US about the possible diversion of military aid from Kyiv. A new analysis showed Russia was importing a third of its battlefield tech from western companies.Need to know: Global economyAnnual US inflation rose more than expected to hit 3.4 per cent in December, dimming expectations that interest rates might start falling as soon as March. Producer price inflation however fell unexpectedly. The FT editorial board said President Joe Biden’s team had a good record on the economy but needed to do more to address voters’ anxieties.Inflation in China, the world’s second-largest economy, on the other hand, is still in deflationary territory. Consumer prices fell for the third month in a row, decreasing 0.3 per cent. Hongkongers are increasingly flocking to mainland China on weekend trips, lured by cheaper groceries and American-style wholesale warehouses.The president of Ecuador said the country was at war with drug gangs amid a deteriorating security crisis that included jailbreaks, bombings and the temporary takeover of a television studio.The IMF agreed to release $4.7bn to Argentina despite the country’s failure to meet the terms of a $43bn loan, handing a crucial lifeline to new President Javier Milei as he pursues ambitious reforms. Need to know: businessMicrosoft briefly overtook Apple as the companies vied to be the world’s most valuable business. Microsoft’s market value has hit $2.9tn thanks to the boom in artificial intelligence.UK luxury group Burberry cut its full-year profit forecast following weak Christmas sales, echoing other big names such as Richemont and LVMH that have warned of falling demand.Chesapeake and Southwestern will merge in a $7.4bn deal to create the biggest US gas producer. US artificial intelligence companies including OpenAI have been engaged in secret diplomacy with Chinese AI exports amid shared concerns about the spread of misinformation.Boom times lie ahead for the UK scrap metal industry as steel production goes green with giant shredders that can chew through 400 tonnes of material an hour. Global demand for steel scrap is projected to surge by 2050 as steel decarbonisation gathers pace. The FT Magazine reports on how young people were lured by the promise of jobs at the “cutting edge” of AI in Nairobi but were left sifting through the internet’s worst horrors as social media moderators with few labour rights. Science round-upThe European earth observation agency confirmed that 2023 was the hottest year ever, with “climate records tumbling like dominoes” as the global average temperature reached almost 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.You are seeing a snapshot of an interactive graphic. This is most likely due to being offline or JavaScript being disabled in your browser.The mission that was to have returned the US to the Moon for the first time in 50 years appeared to be over after a failure in the propulsion system resulted in a “critical loss” of fuel. The Asia space race is also heating up. Chinese start-up LandSpace Technology plans to launch reusable rockets in 2025, in a similar approach to SpaceX, while India aims to begin a series of flight tests for an eventual crewed space flight in 2025. Aarti Holla-Maini, new director of the UN Office of Outer Space Affairs, told the FT that governments and industry should speed up attempts to deal with the growing problem of “space junk”. Millennia-old migration patterns explain why some Europeans are more at risk than others from a range of diseases including multiple sclerosis and Alzheimer’s, according to groundbreaking genomic research.Those of you have seen the TV series The Last of Us will be familiar with the concept of killer fungi. Scientists are now warning that fungicides applied to agricultural crops are contributing to a rising death toll from fungal infections by encouraging drug-resistant strains.Scientists have genetically engineered microbes with the potential to develop a vast range of new products from drugs to detergents and household plastics in the latest advance in synthetic biology.The Antarctic seal is the latest species to be hit by a virulent strain of avian flu as the virus jumps from birds to wild animals, increasing concerns it will adapt to infect mammals and humans more easily.How would you feel about using an AI death calculator? Academics using Danish data on education, salary, job, working hours, housing and doctor visits have developed an algorithm that can predict a person’s life course, including premature death.Some good newsA landmark UK study showed expanded genetic profiling could lead to breakthroughs in cancer diagnosis and therapy for common tumours. The research has highlighted the UK’s role as a global pioneer in genome sequencing. Recommended newslettersWorking it — Discover the big ideas shaping today’s workplaces with a weekly newsletter from work & careers editor Isabel Berwick. Sign up hereThe Climate Graphic: Explained — Understanding the most important climate data of the week. Sign up hereThanks for reading Disrupted Times. If this newsletter has been forwarded to you, please sign up here to receive future issues. And please share your feedback with us at [email protected]. Thank you More