Aurelia Butler

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. prices fell in November for the first in more than 3-1/2 years, pushing the annual increase in inflation further below 3%, and boosting financial market expectations of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next March.The report from the Commerce Department on Friday also showed underlying inflation pressures continuing to subside. Cooling inflation left more income at the disposal of households, helping to underpin consumer spending and the overall economy as the year winds down.This was yet another data set showcasing the durability of the economic expansion, thanks to a resilient labor market. The economy has defied dire predictions of recession from economists and some business executives going back to late 2022. “(Fed) Chair (Jerome) Powell couldn’t have asked for a better present this year,” said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. “So far at least, the endgame is turning out better than the Fed or nearly anyone could have imagined at the start of the year. While the Fed won’t rush into cutting rates, it’s likely now just a matter of time.”Inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, fell 0.1% last month, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said. That was the first monthly decline in the PCE price index since April 2020 and followed an unchanged reading in October.Food prices edged down 0.1% and energy prices dropped 2.7%. In the 12 months through November, the PCE price index increased 2.6% after rising 2.9% in October. October marked the first time since March 2021 that the annual PCE price index was below 3%.Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PCE price index unchanged on the month and rising 2.8% year-on-year.Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index rose 0.1% in November, matching October’s gain. The so-called core PCE price index advanced 3.2% year-on-year, the smallest rise since April 2021, after increasing 3.4% in October. The Fed tracks the PCE price measures for its 2% inflation target. The government reported on Thursday that core PCE inflation increased at a 2.0% annualized rate in the third quarter. That, combined with November’s mild gain, put the six-month core PCE inflation rate at 1.9%. Monthly inflation readings of 0.2% on a sustainable basis are needed to bring inflation back to the Fed’s target, economists say. Financial markets saw a roughly 75% chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s March 19-20 policy meeting, according to CME Group’s (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch Tool.Subsiding inflation is brightening the mood for many Americans, with a separate report from the University of Michigan on Friday showing consumer sentiment soaring in December, reversing all declines from the previous four months.President Joe Biden, whose popularity has been hurt by unhappiness over the high cost of living, welcomed the news. “This reflects the hard work we did together to fix our supply chains and the surge of Americans into the workforce. It’s remarkable progress,” Biden said in a statement.Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher. The dollar fell against basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices rose.CONSUMER SPENDING RISESThe U.S. central bank held rates steady last week and policymakers signaled in new economic projections that the historic monetary policy tightening engineered over the last two years is at an end and lower borrowing costs are coming in 2024. Since March 2022, the Fed has hiked its policy rate by 525 basis points to the current 5.25%-5.50% range.With the labor market still fairly tight, wages jumped 0.6% last month, more than offsetting the drag on personal income from decreases in government aid, including food stamps, social security and Medicaid. Personal income rose 0.4%. The saving rate ticked up to 4.1% from 4.0% in the prior month, which bodes well for spending. Income at the disposal of households after accounting for inflation and taxes rose 0.4% after gaining 0.3% in October.That allowed Americans to open their wallets at the start of the holiday shopping season. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, increased 0.2% last month after rising 0.1% in October.When adjusted for inflation, overall consumer spending increased 0.3% after nudging up 0.1% in October. The pick up in the so-called real consumer spending added to data this week, including single-family housing starts and building permits, in suggesting the economy was regaining speed after appearing to falter at the start of the fourth quarter. That was reinforced by a third report from the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau showing orders for durable goods jumped 5.4% in November, recouping October’s 5.1% drop.Though a fourth report from the Census Bureau showed new home sales plunging 12.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 units in November, a one-year low, the drop is likely temporary amid a dearth of previously owned houses on the market. Mortgage rates continue to decline from 23-year highs, which should help new home sales.Gross domestic product growth estimates for the fourth quarter range from as low as a 1.1% annualized rate to as high as a 2.8% pace. The economy grew at a 4.9% rate in the third quarter.”The U.S. economy is doing well heading into 2024,” said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial (NYSE:PNC) in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. “No recession in 2024.” More

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -President Joe Biden on Friday signed into law the U.S. defense policy bill that authorizes a record $886 billion in annual military spending and policies such as aid for Ukraine and push-back against China in the Indo-Pacific.The National Defense Authorization Act, or NDAA, passed Congress last week. The Democratic-controlled U.S. Senate approved the legislation with a strong bipartisan majority of 87 to 13 while the House of Representatives voted in favor 310 to 118.The bill, one of the few major pieces of legislation Congress passes every year, governs everything from pay raises for service members and purchases of ships and aircraft to policies such as support for foreign partners like Taiwan.The act, nearly 3,100 pages long, called for a 5.2% pay raise for service members and increased the nation’s total national security budget by about 3% to $886 billion. It also lists certain Chinese battery companies that it says are ineligible for Defense Department procurement.The fiscal 2024 NDAA also includes a four-month extension of a disputed domestic surveillance authority, giving lawmakers more time to either reform or keep the program, known as Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. That provision faced objections in both the Senate and House, but not enough to derail the bill. The bill extends one measure to help Ukraine, the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, through the end of 2026, authorizing $300 million for the program in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, 2024, and the next one. However, that figure is small compared to the $61 billion that Biden had asked Congress to approve to help Kyiv combat a Russian invasion that began in February 2022. Republicans had refused to approve assistance for Ukraine without Democrats agreeing to a significant toughening of immigration law. More

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – The annual rotation on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest-rate-setting committee means its 2024 voting members lean slightly more hawkish than the outgoing group from 2023 – but that won’t budge the outlook for a pivot to interest-rate cuts next year. In fact, plenty of analysts make the opposite argument: if inflation continues to fall more quickly than expected, Fed policymakers will want to reduce rates even more than the three-quarters-of-a-percentage point implied in fresh projections published last week. Friday’s release of the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, only served to strengthen that view. Both headline and core measures cooled more than economists had anticipated, bringing the annualized rates over the past three and six months down to at or below the Fed’s 2% target. Over the second half of the year, the center of gravity at the Fed policymaking table has become markedly more dovish, as evidence accumulates that price pressures are easing and the labor market is cooling in the face of the Fed’s rates hikes from March 2022 to July 2023. In particular, those policymakers who had been most hawkish, including Fed Governor Christopher Waller, have backed away from their previous support for rate hikes. “Everybody is a hawk when you are fighting inflation,” said Deutsche Bank’s Brett Ryan. “As the upside risks to inflation have diminished, they have changed their view.” After central bankers held rates steady at 5.25%-5.50% last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that the timing of rate cuts would be the Fed’s “next question,” sending bond yields plummeting and markets pricing in rapid-fire policy rate reductions starting in March. But even if cuts come later and more gradually than that, as policymakers have since tried to signal, the direction of those bets tracks the Fed leader’s changed tone. “Powell is not stupid,” said SGH Macro Advisors’ Tim Duy. “If he set expectations for more than 75 basis points of rate cuts, he did it for a reason.” One reason, Duy explains, is this: As lower inflation filters through the economy, firms that this year were able to raise prices will find it more difficult to do so next year, and may need to turn to trimming labor costs to protect their profits. Signaling easier policy ahead is a bid to head off those kinds of “nasty” disinflationary dynamics, he says. There is also another rationale for rate cuts next year: As inflation falls, holding the benchmark rate steady drives real borrowing costs up, so the Fed must dial back its policy rate to prevent overtightening. “If the Fed does decide to ease a little bit more aggressively,” argues BMO economist Scott Anderson, “it would really be because of inflation, not because of growth or a spike in unemployment.” The new year will bring plenty more data ahead of the Fed’s next meeting, on Jan. 30-31, including a read on the U.S. unemployment rate, now 3.7% and just a tenth of a point above where it was when the Fed began raising rates. FED VOTER ROTATION The four Fed bank presidents who get their turn next year at voting on policy under the Fed’s rules of rotation appear inclined to support fewer rate cuts than the four they are replacing, economists at Deutsche Bank, BMO and others believe. Among 2024 voters is Raphael Bostic, the chief of the Atlanta Fed. Though dovish in the sense that he has tended to express more concern about causing excessive job loss than some of his fellow policymakers, he has also said he believes the Fed policy rate should end next year in the 4.75%-5% range. Most of his colleagues feel a lower range will be appropriate, projections published last week show. Joining Bostic are Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, both seen as hawkish; San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, a centrist, is the fourth 2024 voter. In 2023 voters included the hawkish chiefs of the Minneapolis and Dallas Fed banks, and the leaders of the Philadelphia and Chicago Fed banks, who lean the other way. Fed policymaker views on rates do change with the data. Mester in particular has sounded in recent months less sure about the need for further tightening. And the voting lineup itself is subject to change: under the Fed’s rules Chicago Fed chief Austan Goolsbee would take over Mester’s voting right once she retires in June, if the Cleveland Fed has not by then selected a new president. Ultimately all 19 Fed policymakers, including non-voters, take part in the policy debates that shape the decisions. A number of evolving factors could halt or even reverse progress on inflation, rekindling the hawkish bias that dominated the thinking of most of those 19 throughout this year. An extended disruption of traffic through the Suez Canal resulting from Houthi militant attacks on ships in the Red Sea could push up prices of goods, after six months of inflation-dulling declines.A rise in consumer confidence could set up for stronger spending ahead. Easier financial conditions, with the 10-year yield now back down to where it was in July when the Fed last raised rates, could add fuel to borrowing and investment.And job growth could continue to surpass expectations, as it did for much of last year.”There are definitely risks” that inflation progress could stall, Oxford Economics’ Nancy Vanden Houten said. But in all, she said, she believes the Fed won’t adjust policy to counter a geopolitical shock unless it is seen as quite long-lasting, and with the policy rate as high as it is, the table looks set for weaker spending and job gains next year. The rotating cast of Fed voters will likely matter less than the data itself, she said, which in her view supports the three quarter-point rate cuts that most policymakers expect. More

The Toro Company’s earnings call provided a comprehensive view of its fiscal 2023 performance and strategic direction for the coming year. With an emphasis on innovation, productivity, and strategic partnerships, Toro is poised to navigate the challenges and capitalize on the opportunities that lie ahead. The company’s leadership, including Julie Kerekes, remains optimistic about the future, with the next earnings call scheduled for March 2024 to discuss the fiscal first-quarter results.In the wake of The Toro Company’s (NYSE: TTC) recent earnings announcement, investors are keen to understand the underlying financial health and future prospects of the company. According to InvestingPro data, Toro’s market capitalization stands at a robust $10.22 billion, reflecting investor confidence in the company’s market position. The company’s Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio for the last twelve months as of Q4 2023 is 22.53, which might suggest a higher valuation compared to industry peers. Additionally, the Price/Book (P/B) ratio is 6.77, indicating that the market assigns a premium to the company’s book value, potentially due to its strong brand and market share.InvestingPro Tips highlight that Toro has a history of yielding a high return on invested capital and has raised its dividend for 20 consecutive years, showcasing its commitment to shareholder returns. These factors are particularly relevant to investors looking for stable dividend-paying stocks. Moreover, the company’s stockholders receive high returns on book equity, which could be an attractive point for value-oriented investors.For those interested in further analysis, there are additional InvestingPro Tips available, providing deeper insights into The Toro Company’s financial health and stock performance. Subscribers to InvestingPro can access these tips to inform their investment decisions. Currently, InvestingPro subscription is on a special Cyber Monday sale with discounts of up to 60%, and using the coupon code sfy23 can get an extra 10% off a 2-year InvestingPro+ subscription.This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C. More

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Last-minute shoppers looking for late deals ahead of Christmas may find smaller discounts and fewer items marked down at major retailers including Macy’s, Target and Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA), according to an analyst and two datasets measuring retailers’ recent prices. After ramping up promotions for Black Friday, some of the country’s top gifting destinations cut back both the number and size of their price markdowns on key products from Nov. 1 to Dec. 1, according to data from Centric Market Intelligence, formerly StyleSage, which analyzes retailers, brands, online trends and products across the globe.At Macy’s (NYSE:M), products with price markdowns fell from 49% to 46%, and the average markdown dropped from 20% to 17%, during the time period. At Ulta, products on sale dropped from 10% to 5%, while the average discount dropped from 3% to 2%.Data analytics firm Vertical Knowledge, which examines pricing and discounts across retailers’ websites, found retailers including Abercrombie & Fitch and Macy’s-owned Bloomingdale’s also shrank or maintained their average discounts on products from November to December after deepening markdowns last year. Retailers could potentially adjust their discounts in a bid to entice price-sensitive shoppers in the days before Christmas. But so far, “what’s interesting this year is that even though we’re in a promotional environment, the promotions haven’t been very deep,” said Jessica Ramirez, a senior research analyst for Jane Hali & Associates.The decision to roll back discounts ahead of the Saturday before Christmas – dubbed “Super Saturday” and typically one of the busiest shopping days of the year – highlights the challenges retailers are facing as higher interest rates and other financial pressures weigh on consumer spending. Promotions have been vital to drawing shoppers during key periods such as back-to-school and Black Friday, as executives at Nike (NYSE:NKE) disclosed to investors on Thursday during a post-results conference call. But cutting back on discounts in December is a way to buoy profits, especially given that Black Friday discounts started as early as October for many retailers.“The people who are super price-sensitive have already done their shopping,” said Brian Yacktman, president of YCG Investments, which owns shares of retailers including Nike, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and LVMH. And with this year’s Super Saturday falling just two days before Christmas, shopping procrastinators are less likely to care about cost.“They’re at an inelastic demand point where they’ll pay anything to get the gift” if shoppers really need it, Yacktman said. “Which is a good opportunity for retailers looking to recover their margins.”FEWER SHOPPERS AND LOWER DISCOUNTSU.S. retailers expect 142 million shoppers on Super Saturday, a 10% decline from a year ago, according to the National Retail Federation trade group. Store visits in recent days were down from a year ago at chains including Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) and Home Depot (NYSE:HD), according to analysts.Shoppers are buying less overall. Sales revenue during the 2023 holiday shopping season is 6% lower than last year, and unit sales are 5% lower, according to early data from Circana. Ben Gibson, a pharmacist in San Antonio, Texas, on Thursday said he was perusing prices on video cameras and a tripod at Walmart (NYSE:WMT), and Best Buy. He said he might buy one he found on Amazon instead. Stacey Powells of Mammoth Lakes, California, said Thursday that she hadn’t seen compelling prices on gifts for her grandson. Retailers have spent the past year clearing out excess inventory and reducing orders in anticipation of weaker holiday sales, allowing them to focus more on boosting margins than convincing inflation-weary shoppers to splurge. Nike is one retailer offering fewer discounts as of Dec. 10 than last year, when its website advertised up to 50% off last-minute gifts, according to data from Jane Hali & Associates. As of Friday, most discounts on its U.S. website were between 14% and 30%, including a 24% discount on women’s leggings from its higher-priced Zenvy line, which typically cost $100 or more. More

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. President Joe Biden on Friday signed an executive order threatening penalties for financial institutions that help Russia circumvent sanctions, the White House said in a statement, as Washington seeks to increase pressure on Moscow.The order also gives Washington the ability to broaden import bans of certain Russian goods, such as seafood and diamonds, the White House said.”We are sending an unmistakable message: Anyone supporting Russia’s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system,” National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said in a statement.The move comes as U.S. funding for Ukraine military aid is running out and the United States and its allies search for new ways to slow Russia’s war effort.Washington already had the power to sanction non-Russian financial institutions but Friday’s executive order underscores the “very real risks for foreign financial institutions, many of whom don’t seem to have gotten the message yet,” said Edward Fishman, a sanctions expert at Columbia University. The measures clarify that the U.S. can target financial institutions involved in transactions on behalf of those hit with U.S. sanctions or tied to Russia’s military industrial base, including the sale of certain critical items.The order is being issued in coordination with allies, said senior administration officials, speaking on condition of anonymity.The United States has repeatedly warned companies against skirting U.S. sanctions imposed on Russia, and has targeted firms in the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and China that it has accused of helping Moscow avoid the measures.Senior U.S. officials have also traveled to Turkey, the UAE and other countries to warn that businesses could lose access to G7 markets if they do business with entities subject to U.S. curbs.A Treasury official said Washington expressed its concerns to governments around the world, adding that the U.S. is asking for more scrutiny of financial institutions that could be facilitating transactions supporting Russia’s procurement of military-industrial inputs.The official said that the new authority was not focused on any specific country and not intended to suggest that governments are aware of these transactions.While the order is not aimed at specific countries, those that have been most implicated in evasion and violations of U.S. sanctions are “obvious,” Fishman, who worked on Russia sanctions at the State Department during President Barack Obama’s administration, said, citing China, Turkey and the UAE as examples.CHOKE POINTThe new order gives Washington and its allies tools to target the networks Moscow was trying to put in place to circumvent these sanctions through the use of front companies and “witting and unwitting financial intermediaries,” one of the senior officials said.”We’ve sanctioned a number of these companies that we’ve found, but ultimately the choke point for these companies and Russia’s ability to continue to try and circumvent our sanctions is the financial system,” the official said.”What this tool allows us to do is to target those institutions and give them a very stark choice.”The provisions take effect immediately.The officials said they were not aware of any U.S. or European institutions that were in violation of the order, noting that most U.S. and European firms had already scaled back their business with Russia dramatically.Brian O’Toole, a former Treasury Department official now with the Atlantic Council think tank, said the executive order will allow the Biden administration to use secondary sanctions in a more nuanced way.”These are akin to Iran-style sanctions,” he said.The executive order will also give Washington the ability to ban products that originated in Russia but were transformed outside of the country, including diamonds and seafood, the White House said.The action comes after the Group of Seven countries earlier this month announced a direct ban on Russian diamonds starting Jan. 1, followed by phased-in restrictions on indirect imports of Russian gems from around March 1. More

In conclusion, Boqii’s fiscal year 2024 first half results reflected a challenging economic environment, but the company’s strategic adjustments and focus on high-margin private labels have helped to mitigate some of the impacts. With the pet industry in China poised for growth, Boqii is positioning itself to capitalize on this trend and deliver sustainable returns to shareholders.This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C. More