Why Mohamed El-Erian favours cash over equities for now

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European stocks surged on Tuesday, boosted by unconfirmed reports that China is considering a fresh round of stimulus measures and by dovish remarks from US Federal Reserve officials.The region-wide Stoxx Europe 600 rose 1.6 per cent, pushed higher by basic materials stocks and on track for its best day since July 2022, LSEG data showed.London’s FTSE 100 gained 1.7 per cent, led by mining companies including Anglo American and Antofagasta, which added 4.5 per cent and 2.9 per cent, respectively. France’s luxury goods-dominated Cac 40 jumped 1.5 per cent.“The region is ripping given the combination of dovish Fed-speak, a lack of escalation of the Israeli conflict to a regional conflict, and potential [additional] stimulus from China”, JPMorgan analysts said. More
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In the middle of the G20 summit in New Delhi last month, President Joe Biden peeled away for a small gathering with a few other world leaders.In attendance were Narendra Modi, the Indian prime minister and host, South African president Cyril Ramaphosa and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the leader of Brazil — three of the five countries in the Brics grouping of large developing countries. They held hands and smiled for the cameras, along with Ajay Banga, the new president of the World Bank. The event occurred shortly after Biden had presented what US officials describe as a big new push to deliver billions of dollars in additional financing to emerging and developing economies. Absent from the session at the G20 were China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin. The plan involves boosting the financial might of the World Bank and the IMF, the two Washington-based institutions that have been at the centre of the economic order America and its allies spearheaded after the second world war to foster international co-operation and increase their global leverage.Biden’s bet — and that of his top officials including Janet Yellen, the Treasury secretary — is that he can revitalise them in a way that expands America’s economic offering to developing nations around the world, while countering China’s mounting international influence.Joe Biden with Narendra Modi, prime minister of India, and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, president of Brazil, at the G20 meeting in New Delhi last month More
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Furthermore, the concept of Ethereum as “ultrasound money” is facing scrutiny. Touted as a deflationary asset due to the EIP-1559 upgrade, which introduced a mechanism to burn a portion of the transaction fees, Ethereum’s current state suggests otherwise. The deflationary pressures are not as pronounced as many had anticipated, leading to questions about its long-term economic model.Source: Amid these challenges, has found itself at a relatively unnoticeable support level. This support, often overlooked in favor of more prominent price points, could play a pivotal role in determining ETH’s trajectory in the coming weeks. If Ethereum manages to hold above this level, it could provide the foundation for a potential rebound. Conversely, a breach below could exacerbate the bearish sentiment.The importance of this hidden support is magnified by the broader context. With the overall trading volume on the decline and the DeFi and NFT landscapes not providing the bullish impetus they once did, Ethereum needs all the support it can get, both technically and sentimentally.At the time of writing, Shiba Inu is trading at $0.00000693, a value that is significantly suppressed from its all-time highs. A detailed analysis of its price movement reveals that SHIB is currently moving below the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a technical indicator that often provides insights into an asset’s momentum. The position below this EMA suggests that is heavily suppressed and is currently in a downtrend.The downtrend is further emphasized by the lack of attempts from the token to break through and reclaim higher levels. The 21 EMA acts as a dynamic resistance, and SHIB’s consistent position below it indicates a strong bearish grip on its price action.Another concerning factor for Shiba Inu’s potential recovery is its trading volume. A robust trading volume often signifies strong interest and activity around an asset, which can be a precursor to significant price movements. However, in the case of SHIB, the trading volume is at an extremely low level. This diminished trading activity suggests a lack of buying interest, which can further dampen any hopes of a swift price recovery.A detailed analysis of Solana’s price reveals that the cryptocurrency is still one of the strongest performers on the market. Currently trading at $22.93, Solana has only seen a slight decline of a little over 7% in the past few days. This is a modest dip, especially when compared to other assets in the crypto space that have experienced losses of around 15% from their recent highs.The resilience of can be attributed to its robust ecosystem and the growing interest in its platform. As decentralized applications (dApps) and DeFi projects continue to find a home on Solana, the demand for SOL, its native token, remains high. This demand acts as a buffer, preventing drastic price drops and ensuring stability even in turbulent market conditions.Another positive sign for Solana is the decreasing trading volume. While a drop in trading volume can be a cause for concern in some scenarios, in this case, it is a silver lining. The reason being that Solana is currently bearish on more local time frames but remains bullish on longer-term charts. A decrease in trading volume during a short-term bearish phase can indicate a lack of strong selling pressure, which can pave the way for a potential rebound.This article was originally published on U.Today More
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SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The dollar softened on Tuesday along with U.S. interest rate expectations and a fall in Treasury yields as investors detected a slight dovish shift in Federal Reserve officials’ tone.The yen held small gains as violence in the Middle East supported buying of safe-haven assets, and last traded firmly at 148.34 per dollar. The Swiss franc has also gained and was edging higher at 0.9045 to the dollar.The euro was up 0.1% in early Asia trade to $1.0580. The Israeli shekel steadied at 3.95 to the dollar, just off an almost eight-year low, after the central bank promised $30 billion in foreign exchange selling.Investors are bracing for a drawn-out conflict after a weekend attack from Palestinian militants – and Israel’s retaliation – has claimed more than 1,500 lives.However comments from two Fed officials turned around the mood and U.S. rate forecasts overnight after noting the recent selloff in bonds might negate the need for further hikes.”If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the Fed funds rate,” said Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan — a notable shift from previously hawkish rhetoric.Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said the central bank would need to “proceed carefully” given the recent rise in yields. Futures-implied pricing for the chance of another Fed hike this year fell from above 40% last week to about 26% on Monday.”A handful of other officials, including Fed Governor Christopher Waller, are scheduled to speak today. Markets will closely watch their comments for further clues on the path of (Fed) policy,” said CBA strategist Carol Kong in a note.Ten-year Treasury yields, which have been zooming, dived more than 13 basis points to 4.63% at the open in Tokyo on Tuesday on both rates relief and a safe-haven bet after the cash market had shut for Columbus Day on Monday. [US/]Sterling was a fraction firmer against the dollar at $1.2244. Against the Australian and New Zealand dollars the greenback was also a fraction weaker, with the Aussie up 0.2% to $0.6420 and the kiwi up 0.2% to $0.6031.China’s return from a week’s break has traders’ eyes back focused on the daily fix of the yuan’s trading band, which has for weeks on end been far firmer than market expectations.Ahead of the onshore open, the yuan held overnight gains to trade just above its 50-day moving average in the offshore market at 7.2876 per dollar. [CNY/] More
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BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Argentina’s central bank board will discuss the possibility of hiking the benchmark interest rate from its current 118% at its meeting later this week, a source with knowledge of the matter said on Monday, as officials battle to tamp down on triple-digit inflation.Latin America’s third-largest economy saw annual inflation top 124% in August, a 32-year high.”A decision has not been taken yet,” the source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, told Reuters. “There are those who want to hold (the rate) and those who want to raise (it),” the source added.Argentina’s central bank board meets every Thursday, though monetary policy decisions can be made at any time.An increased interest rate could encourage Argentines to leave their savings in pesos and relieve pressure on the local currency less than two weeks before the country’s presidential elections.The Argentine peso weakened to 945 per U.S. dollar on the parallel black market on Monday, a nearly 7% drop from Friday’s closing price. More


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