Aurelia Butler

When bailiffs threatened to change her locks out of the blue, Elizabeth’s first thought was to ring her landlord for help.But it turned out the landlord had not paid his mortgage so the single mother of three was evicted and placed in temporary accommodation by the local council in Oldham, just outside Manchester. “It’s stressful” not having a permanent home, the 49-year-old said, adding that despite the temporary placement being plagued with flies and bad smells, it was “better than being on the streets”.Elizabeth’s story is becoming increasingly common as the UK’s lack of affordable housing collides with growing demand, rising living costs and the tighter margins faced by landlords. Rents in the country are at their highest since the Office for National Statistics began recording them in 2016, following years of stagnant housebuilding and growing demand. The increase has left areas that did not have a significant problem with homelessness suddenly confronting soaring numbers of people with nowhere to live. Oldham has been a relatively affordable place to rent historically but its rate of homelessness is now nearly twice the national average, with an 80 per cent year-on-year increase between January and April, and a similar rise in the number of children living in emergency housing. “Unfortunately, the trends aren’t surprising and reflect that the overall housing crisis has affected all parts of the country, particularly places that aren’t traditionally thought of in this way,” said Jasmine Basran, policy and public affairs manager at the homelessness charity Crisis, adding that a chronic lack of social housing had removed a crucial safety net.The government’s latest homelessness statistics reveal the growing numbers at the sharp end of the crisis; the number of children living in temporary accommodation was up 10 per cent year on year in the first three months of this year.Experts said Britain’s shortage of housing was at the heart of the crisis. “It’s hugely problematic,” said Ben Beadle, chief executive of the National Residential Landlords Association. The answer, he added, was to “sort out the lack of homes”.You are seeing a snapshot of an interactive graphic. This is most likely due to being offline or JavaScript being disabled in your browser.The shortage of rental accommodation has been exacerbated by the challenges facing landlords, who have been hit with rising interest rates and higher mortgage costs over the past year, making buy-to-let investments less attractive. “Typically, people who are homeless, or at risk of homelessness, do look for some affordable housing within the private rented sector,” said Basran of Crisis. “But we’re seeing more competition at that end because people’s incomes are squeezed — and landlords are looking at their options and struggling, to be frank.”A report by the real estate consultancy Savills earlier this year found that net profits for investors in the private rented sector had fallen to their lowest levels since 2007, driven by interest rate rises and taxation changes.Beadle said a growing number of landlords were now in an “invidious position” financially. Even taking the mortgage rate rises of the last year “out of the equation”, returns had been “pretty marginal for quite a period of time”, he said. While there were no signs yet of an exodus of landlords from the market, anecdotally “more people are selling than buying and more people are saying that they are going to sell than invest”, he added. “I’ve just spoken to a chap whose mortgage is going from £800 to £1,500 — he’s not going to be able to pass on a £700 rent increase . . . he might have to sell.” Such decisions are feeding into destitution statistics. In the first quarter of 2023, the number of households becoming homeless as a result of landlords either selling up or raising rent jumped 27 per cent from the previous year, according to government data. “No fault” bailiff evictions under Section 21 of the Housing Act, in which tenants such as Elizabeth are forcibly ejected despite not breaching their tenancies, also rocketed 41 per cent during the same period. Evictions were banned during the coronavirus pandemic, but since 2021 the courts in England and Wales have gradually been clearing backlogs in applications. Rents in the UK are at their highest since the Office for National Statistics began recording them in 2016 More

Sir Keir Starmer has promised to try to get a “much better” Brexit deal for the UK if he wins the general election expected next year.But although the leader of the UK’s opposition Labour party described the deal negotiated by then prime minister Boris Johnson in 2020 as “far too thin”, he has ruled out forming a customs union with the EU and seeking membership of the single market.What could the Labour leader achieve within the Brexit “red lines” that he has set himself?When could Starmer negotiate a reset?Starmer’s advisers believe that his election would create a diplomatic inflection point that could allow him to draw a line under eight years of often bruising negotiations between London and Brussels under successive Conservative governments.Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has already improved relations with the EU, concluding his Windsor framework deal to break the diplomatic deadlock over post-Brexit trading arrangements for Northern Ireland and taking up membership of the Horizon Europe science exchange programme.Starmer could look to build on this limited progress via the five-yearly “implementation review” of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement, which can begin from the start of 2026.Can the UK get the EU to improve the TCA?Trade and diplomacy experts warn that while the UK is fretting about the fallout of the TCA for its exporters, in most European capitals Brexit is yesterday’s problem. Senior EU officials say the bloc is now focused on issues such as immigration, net zero, energy security and plans for Ukraine to become a member state.“There’s little appetite to reopen the Brexit psychodrama in Brussels,” said one, ahead of Starmer’s trip to Paris this week to meet French president Emmanuel Macron, which has been touted as laying the early groundwork for a reset.Charles Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, warned that the EU side had “many other priorities” and any initiative from a Labour government would require careful framing and a clear “offer”.“Before he takes office Starmer needs to work out what he wants to change in the Brexit settlement, and then forewarn EU leaders of what they should expect from Labour,” he added.What can the UK offer to the EU?The UK side will have to think carefully about a quid pro quo to unlock more flexibility from the European Commission on trade issues. This could include paying into EU programmes, like the Erasmus student exchange scheme that Johnson quit, or easier work visas for Europe’s young people and students.Other potential areas for deeper co-operation include diplomacy and security. The UK could join the bloc’s schemes for financing military aid to Ukraine or sign a defence pact enabling London to contribute advisers to EU peacekeeping missions abroad — such as Operation Althea, which oversees the peace agreement in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Deeper cyber security and intelligence co-operation is another area that would be of value, especially to eastern and Nordic EU states. Around renewables, London could look to build on an agreement signed last April to work together on renewable energy via the North Seas Energy Cooperation, a regional offshore grid co-chaired by the European Commission. Linking UK carbon-pricing systems with those of the EU would also reduce frictions caused by forthcoming carbon border taxes. London could also offer to share its disused North Sea oilfields for carbon capture and storage, a geological asset unique to the UK.Can the TCA be improved within Starmer’s red lines?By ruling out single market membership and a customs union with the EU, trade experts say Starmer has significantly limited how far the UK’s post-Brexit trading relationship with the bloc can be improved. They also warn that negotiations with Brussels are likely to be protracted and slow, with no sense of urgency on the EU side — unlike in 2019 or 2020 when both sides were trying to avoid a “no deal” Brexit.The UK could try to negotiate some improvements for individual sectors of the economy — such as a veterinary agreement to reduce checks on animal and plant products, which would benefit food and drink exporters.Aligning with EU rules will cut red tape and reduce border costs for individual sectors, but would entail the UK following large amounts of regulation without having a say over their creation, risking a political backlash at home.To ease so-called rules of origin issues, which require products to be about 50 per cent UK-made in order to enter the EU tariff-free, London could seek to join the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean (PEM) Convention, making it easier for British companies with supply chains running through countries such as Turkey, Israel, Morocco and Switzerland to export tariff-free to the EU.But Sam Lowe, trade expert at Flint Global, warned this would cut across existing elements of the TCA and would not address some areas of friction, such as the stand-off between the EU and UK over electric vehicles.Labour has pledged to seek “mutual recognition agreements” for professional qualifications, which Brussels has done with other trade partners, but experts warn that this will take time. It took Canada nine rounds of negotiations and more than a year to secure a single deal on architects.David Henig, a former official at the UK Department for International Trade who is now at the European Centre for International Political Economy think-tank, said such negotiations “won’t be automatic or easy”. “The EU will want to make sure the UK is committed to regulatory alignment, and I suspect may only want to start with a couple of sectors,” he added.London could also take unilateral steps to reduce frictions for business, as it has already by partially recognising the EU “CE” standards mark. It could also speed up its programme to digitise border arrangements. Can Starmer really fix Brexit?Given Starmer’s self-imposed red lines on rejoining the single market and a customs union, there are clear limits to how far any future negotiation can remove the barriers to trade erected by the TCA.Some experts warn that the Labour leader’s aspirations will quickly get bogged down in negotiations in Brussels while attracting domestic political flak from Conservatives accusing him of “betraying Brexit” and turning the UK into a rule taker from Brussels.Others are more optimistic, pointing out that Starmer can present himself as a clean break from the Conservative years. Analysts add that by gearing up to admit Ukraine, Brussels may have to build more flexible arrangements for non-members in the future.Mujtaba Rahman, head of European analysis at the Eurasia Group think-tank, argued that with the right political leadership there could be more space for innovation on the EU side, particularly since Brexit has not tempted other states to seek to leave the bloc.“If Starmer delivers consistent British engagement with the EU, based more on shared values and less on domestic politics, that will create goodwill, which will then underpin the dynamic between the two sides across the board,” he said.Video: Sketchy Politics: Starmer’s path to power More

SHANGHAI/HONG KONG (Reuters) – COVID wasn’t kind to wedding planners in China, where marriages are traditionally elaborate, expensive affairs, but the industry estimated at almost $500 billion is now facing a bigger threat: a plunge in the number of couples willing to tie the knot.The trend, which has become more obvious as the economy weakens and consumer confidence wanes, is also worrying officials trying to revive marriage, and birth, rates which dropped to record lows last year, leading to the first decline in population numbers in 60 years.”The number of marriages is falling and few are willing to spend a lot on weddings,” said Yuan Jialiang, who ran a full-scale wedding planning business for almost a decade in Shanghai before switching to focus on wedding photography before the pandemic.”The future of this industry doesn’t look promising.”There were 6.8 million marriages across China last year, 800,000 fewer than in 2021 and the lowest since the government began publishing the data in 1986.This drop in marriage registrations will exacerbate the decline in births in China, now one of the world’s fastest-ageing societies. Many cities deny unmarried mothers child-raising or healthcare subsidies and having children out of wedlock is often frowned upon.”You have a lot of consumers that are just saying ‘well, you know, marriage isn’t the right thing for me’ and a lot of younger adults in China feel that raising kids is just too expensive,” said Ben Cavender, managing director and head of strategy at China Market Research Group.”The traditional Chinese wedding industry is probably in for tough times.”BUDGET, BACKLOGBefore the pandemic hit, weddings were big business in China, with Daxue Consulting estimating the industry to be worth 3.6 trillion yuan ($487 billion) in 2020. Couples traditionally splash out on gold jewellery, elaborate decor and luxury venues but Frank Chen, from Chen Feng Wedding Planning in Shanghai, says few weddings this year had a budget of over 100,000 yuan ($13,736).”People are more inclined to go for a simple and niche wedding,” said Chen, adding that a decade ago, it was common for couples to spend millions of yuan.Many weddings planned for 2022 were postponed by COVID-19 lockdowns, resulting in a busier 2023 for some firms.Jewellery companies Chow Tai Fook and TSL said they expect demand for wedding jewellery this year to return to pre-pandemic levels.TSL, however, said the long-term future of the industry would depend on the strength of the economy.”It’s just the COVID backlog,” said wedding planner Xueyi, whose business in Xi’an and Shanghai has also seen a spike this year. “Some of my clients who had bookings rescheduled have actually separated.”‘NICHE, NICHE, NICHE’The economic downturn has hit the middle class, and the youth, the hardest, resulting in high jobless rates and low household spending.Wealthier consumers appear to be better insulated against the macroeconomic headwinds and Jewel Wang, owner of a network of stores selling wedding dresses by U.S. designer Vera Wang, expects companies specialising in high-end or bespoke services to fare better than those in the low-to-mid-ranges.Wang, who is also founder of Nora’s bridal boutique in Shanghai which stocks luxury gowns from designers including Oscar de la Renta and Carolina Herrera, said June was the best month in a decade due to pent-up demand. “For us it makes more sense to find the next bride who can afford our products versus capturing a greater part of the market,” she added.Still, she was cautious about the future.”As a market we see an absolute downturn in spending. Our strategy has been to stay niche, niche, niche,” said Wang.”We don’t want to flow with the broader market because we don’t think that it’s a good place to go.”($1 = 7.2802 Chinese yuan renminbi) More

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The euro clung to gains on Tuesday following hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers, while the yen languished near a 10-month low ahead of a key rate decision from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) later in the week.Currency moves were subdued in early Asia trade as markets stayed on guard ahead of this week’s slew of central bank meetings, with the Federal Reserve taking centre stage and the BOJ grabbing the spotlight in Asia.The euro eked out a slight gain to trade at $1.0695, having risen 0.3% in the previous session as ECB officials suggested further rate increases were on the cards – comments which boosted euro zone government bond yields.”With ECB speak noting how inflation is not expected to come down anytime soon… we should all be gearing to this idea that the cash rate will remain elevated for an extended period of time, and potentially a very long period of time,” said Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY). A Reuters report saying the ECB may soon start discussing how to tackle the multi-trillion-euro pool of excess liquidity sloshing around banks also lifted the single currency.This stash of money dulls the impact of the ECB’s rate hikes by reducing competition for deposits and results in hefty interest payments – and ensuing losses – by some central banks.In Asia, the yen slipped marginally to 147.64 per dollar and was kept pinned near last week’s 10-month low of 147.95 per dollar.The BOJ is due to announce its rate decision on Friday at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting, with the central bank coming under close scrutiny after Governor Kazuo Ueda stoked speculation of an imminent move away from ultra-loose policy.”Our sense is that the BOJ needs ammunition in order to back itself in terms of any shift or even any guidance for (a) potential shift in policy over the coming six months to the next year,” said Catril.”And we think that that needs to happen with a set of new forecasts, and that’s why we don’t think that we will get many surprises on Friday.”Elsewhere, the U.S. dollar edged broadly lower, though strayed not too far from a six-month peak hit against its major peers last week ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday.Against the greenback, the Aussie rose 0.12% to $0.6445, while the New Zealand dollar gained 0.11% to $0.5924.The dollar index slipped 0.04% to 105.04.Money markets expect the Fed to keep rates on hold at its upcoming meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool, though focus will be on the central bank’s forward guidance.”The market is fully pricing in a hold and this meeting was always likely to be a pass since the Fed skipped June, effectively moving to an every-other-meeting cadence,” said Erik Weisman, chief economist and portfolio manager at MFS Investment Management.”The market will be looking for any hints that the Fed may be leaning towards another hike by year end or that a more persistent pause is in order.”Sterling edged 0.04% higher to $1.2390, ahead of an interest rate decision from the Bank of England (BoE) also due this week.While the BoE is expected to deliver another rate hike on Thursday, the increase could mark the central bank’s last in its current tightening cycle as a cooling economy begins to worry policymakers. More

Speaking to the OAS permanent council, Ambassador Francisco Mora said the U.S. was concerned about efforts to undermine democracy in Guatemala, including the prosecutor’s office recently raiding electoral storage facilities and opening sealed ballots. “In a healthy democracy, institutions don’t tamper with ballot boxes after election results have been officially certified by the appropriate authority,” Mora said, adding the act represented “an assault on the rule of law.”Last week, the top prosecutor’s office in the Central American country raided facilities run by Guatemala’s main electoral tribunal as part of an investigation into the lead-up to the elections which saw anti-graft candidate Bernardo Arevalo and his Semilla Party overwhelmingly come out on top.Arevalo suspended his participation in the transition of power last week until “necessary institutional (and) political conditions are reestablished.”He said on Monday he would analyze the possibility of restarting the transition process, speaking to press as he presented a legal challenge against the investigation to Guatemala’s Supreme Court.Hundreds of protesters gathered in front of the court to accompany Arevalo, waving flags and holding signs that read “out with the coup-mongers.”More protests are expected to continue on Tuesday, with roadblocks planned throughout the country in support of Arevalo and to demand the resignation of the prosecutor investigating him. More

(Reuters) – An Indiana judicial watchdog on Monday accused Republican Attorney General Todd Rokita of violating professional conduct rules while making statements about a doctor in the state who performed an abortion on a 10-year-old rape victim from Ohio.The complaint by the Indiana Supreme Court Disciplinary Commission cited statements Rokita made on Fox News in July 2022 about Dr. Caitlin Bernard in a case that became a flashpoint in the debate over abortion access.The commission’s move is the latest in a state whose highest court in June upheld a law banning nearly all abortions in the state. The Indiana Supreme Court is also the ultimate arbiter for any attorneys charged with misconduct by the commission.Rokita, who opposes abortion, had opened an investigation into Bernard. During a show hosted by Fox’s Jesse Watters, he described her as an “abortion activist acting as a doctor – with a history of failure to report” child abuse cases.The commission said those comments violated rules barring lawyers from making public statements with a substantial likelihood of “materially prejudicing” a case.In a written response on Monday, Rokita said he was not required to maintain confidentiality in Bernard’s case, claiming she “violated her own duties of confidentiality by disclosing her patient’s condition.”Rokita also questioned whether an Indiana confidentiality law invoked by the commission held any power over him, arguing that it only applies to an attorney general’s employees.Bernard has said the Ohio child was referred to her three days after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the 1973 case that guaranteed federal abortion rights. Ohio and other states quickly enforced strict limits on abortion in the wake of the ruling, sometimes without exceptions involving rape.Rokita filed a medical licensing board complaint against Bernard in November, accusing her of violating her patient’s privacy rights and failing to immediately report child abuse to Indiana authorities.The board in May reprimanded Bernard for speaking publicly about her patient’s condition in violation of privacy laws and fined her $3,000. A lawyer for Bernard said she had no comment on the disciplinary case against Rokita. More