Aurelia Butler

Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for freeYour guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the worldThe plaque that honours David Ricardo in Bloomsbury seems almost designed to be walked past unnoticed. The nearby statue of his fellow free-trader Richard Cobden has become a popular latrine with the local bird population. And so a visual metaphor — about the soiled, neglected idea of trade — would have begun this column a few weeks ago.Now? The Ricardian cause has no lack of friends. These include: financial markets, which have judged that Donald Trump’s tariffs will destroy wealth, or stop it being created; the Chinese embassy in Washington, which quotes Ronald Reagan’s case against protectionism back at his party; and, most tellingly, the left, which has chosen not to defend the tariffs as a reassertion of the state. In taking such a welcome stand on this issue, progressives may not realise quite how much is being admitted — the sanctity of price competition, for instance — but let’s not scare them off.For the first time since the crash of 2008, globalisation has the high ground. It is those striving to undo it who are on the moral and intellectual defensive. Protectionism has turned out to be something of a fair-weather cause: popular as long as no one has to make a material sacrifice.Granted, moral and intellectual victories are worth only so much if tariffs keep escalating in tit-for-tat reprisals between the US, China and the EU. Winning the argument is small consolation for losing the world. But real events tend to follow, after a lag, the tide of ideas. “Liberation day” was the result of a decade or more in which free-traders lost all confidence.It matters, therefore, that old liberal verities are sayable again. Running a current account deficit is not failure. Workers are also consumers. Protectionism is a charter for lobbyists. (Look at the carve-outs for consumer electronics.) While no guarantee against war, trade can intertwine once-hostile states. (The Cobden statue was part-funded by Napoleon III.) An alternative timeline in which the US somehow smothered China’s industrial rise has to include higher retail prices: in fact, the possibility that the conquest of inflation in the 1990s never happened. Above all, don’t accord a spurious credibility to “limited” tariffs, such as the Joe Biden administration’s “small yard with a high fence”. No state gets to decide if the rest of the world retaliates.This change in the intellectual atmosphere should affect how governments behave over time. So should the humbling of a second protectionist president in a row. After the electoral flop of Bidenomics, it is Trump’s turn to misread the working class as people pining to do the manual jobs of their forebears. It takes a college degree to believe this patronising foolery, which the comedian Dave Chappelle has countered better than most. (“I want to wear Nikes, not make them.”) What is a “worker” in 2025? A sales rep with a sideline as a gig driver, probably, whose main exposure to trade is the purchase of cheap products. While 80 per cent of Americans want more factories, 25 per cent aspire to work in them. Physical labour for thee, but not for me. Will a third straight president make the protectionist error? It is slightly harder to imagine than it was at the start of the month. That is Trump’s unwitting gift to globalisation.Trade should be a popular, even populist cause, as the Anti-Corn Law League was in the 1800s. The word “globalist” should be high praise. If world leaders aren’t ready to go quite that far, they should at least hold off on all the talk of a post-global era, which the well-meaning premiers of Canada and Singapore have fanned. Trade as a share of world output is stuck where it was on the eve of the crash. But it is higher than it was at the millennium, at which point it was twice as high as in 1970. It could be a plateau of trade that we are living through, or a transient dip, and from a historically high baseline. (What is true of trade is true of the other half of liberalism: political freedom. The number of democracies is down, but from a level that was scarcely imaginable in the 1970s.) Don’t crown protectionists with victories that haven’t been earned yet.If globalisation has newly vocal friends, the relief should be mixed with a sense of waste. The time to speak up was years ago. Instead, rational people went along with tariffs because a Democratic president was levying them. It is still all too easy in bien pensant company to raise pantomime boos with talk of “neoliberalism”. Even the premise of that word is false. It just isn’t the case that Reagan, Thatcher and their heirs abandoned people to global market forces. In the US and UK, but also Australia, France and beyond, social spending was higher as a share of GDP in 2008, and now, than in 1980. The lesson? Liberals tend to choose feeling good over thinking hard. In the culture wars, what allowed woke-ism to go as far as it did was not the zealots who were steeped in critical theory. These were few in number. It was the failure of those nearer the centre — who couldn’t abide being seen as big meanies — to stand up to them. Something similar has enabled protectionism to gain ground since the crash. Aching to be seen as good and chastened people, liberals have indulged all manner of economic nonsense. Even now, I suspect many are only banging the drum for trade because it is Trump on the opposing side. As a service to the cause, his is unintentional, but no less statue-worthy for [email protected] More

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This article is an on-site version of our FirstFT newsletter. Subscribers can sign up to our Asia, Europe/Africa or Americas edition to get the newsletter delivered every weekday morning. Explore all of our newsletters hereGood morning and welcome back to FirstFT. The Trump administration is clamping down on Nvidia’s ability to sell AI chips to China, sending its shares sliding in after-hours trading. We’ll explain the move and bring you more reaction to it. Here’s what else we covering today: Jamie Dimon on the risks of eroding US credibility China’s first-quarter growth beats expectationsPrivate equity groups pause dealmakingTurkey’s opposition leader writes from his prison cell And the rise of the “it” smoothieSilicon Valley chip giant Nvidia was forced to take a $5.5bn hit to its earnings last night after the US government introduced new controls on its ability to sell artificial intelligence chips to China. The move sent Nvidia’s shares down 7 per cent and has knocked sentiment across the tech sector. Here’s what you need to know.What are the new restrictions? The chipmaker said its H20 chip, which is tailored to comply with Biden-era export controls that already prevent the sale of its most powerful chips in China, would now require a special licence to be sold to Chinese customers. The company did not say how many licences would be granted but said the H20 licence requirement would “be in effect for the indefinite future”. Bernstein analysts said yesterday that the H20 accounted for about $12bn of Nvidia’s $17bn in China revenues over the past year.Why has the US unveiled these new measures? The US said the new controls were necessary to address the risk of H20 chips being used in “a supercomputer in China”, Nvidia said in its filing. The US government is worried China will be more successful building supercomputers, which can be used for everything from the development of hypersonic weapons to modelling for nuclear weapons, to help the People’s Liberation Army.Are any other companies affected? As well as issuing new export licensing requirements for Nvidia’s H20 chip, the US commerce department issued new licences for AMD’s MI308 and equivalent chips. AMD is Nvidia’s closest direct competitor in the AI data centre chip market and its shares were down 7 per cent in after-hours trading. Broadcom, whose custom AI chips are sold to customers including China’s ByteDance, also fell in after-hours trading although it was unclear whether Broadcom’s chips would be affected by the new measures. In Europe, the shares of Dutch chipmaking equipment company ASML sank 6 per cent while in Hong Kong lead AI chip buyer Alibaba was down nearly 4 per cent and Baidu and Tencent were both down about 2 per cent. Here’s the latest on the share price moves. Join our live Q&A today on the changing trade, economic and geopolitical relationship between the US and its allies. And here’s what else we’re keeping tabs on today:Monetary policy: All eyes will be on The Economic Club of Chicago later today where Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell is scheduled to share his views on the economic outlook for the US.Economic data: March retail sales are published in the US as well as industrial production figures. The World Trade Organization publishes its annual global trade outlook, including a 2025 growth forecast.Company earnings: Abbott Laboratories and Travelers are expected to report first-quarter results. In the financial sector, Citizens Financial Group and US Bancorp also publish results for the period ending March 31.Five more top stories1. China’s economy grew at a robust 5.4 per cent in the first quarter of this year as producers front-loaded exports to beat a blitz of tariffs from Donald Trump’s administration. The strong first-quarter growth exceeded Beijing’s full-year target for 2025 as well as the 5.1 per cent forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll. 2. Trump has signed an executive order aimed at lowering drug prices for Americans by instructing regulators to allow more states to import medicines directly from countries with lower prices. With the US paying over three times more for branded drugs than other developed countries, the move will shake up the pharmaceutical industry in its biggest, most profitable market.3. PwC has ceased operations in more than a dozen countries that its global bosses have deemed too small, risky or unprofitable, including cutting ties with several member firms in francophone Africa. Stephen Foley has more details on the Big Four firm’s push to avoid further scandals.4. The US is engaging in efforts to negotiate a landmark global tax deal despite Trump’s criticism of the agreement, according to the OECD’s chief. Secretary-general Mathias Cormann told the FT the talks included technical concerns on how to implement reforms aimed at closing loopholes for Big Tech and multinationals, in a sign the US could back the deal.5. Donald Trump’s tariffs are forcing private equity groups to pause their dealmaking and focus on managing their existing portfolio companies, executives in the industry have told the Financial Times. The comments are a stark reversal of earlier expectations for a boom in activity under the new administration. Here’s what private equity executives told the FT.Today’s big interviewJamie Dimon said the US’s economic pre-eminence could come under threat from the president’s attempt to reshape global trade Donald Trump’s trade war risks eroding the US’s credibility, Jamie Dimon has told the Financial Times. The JPMorgan Chase chief executive said that the US remained “a haven” because of its prosperity, rule of law and economic and military strength, but that America’s economic pre-eminence could come under threat from the president’s attempt to reshape global trade. Read more of Dimon’s comments here and watch the interview in full.We’re also reading . . . Chart of the dayThe story of the English-speaking peoples, including the US, has been one of taming arbitrary power, writes Martin Wolf. Replacing tyranny with the rule of law, the role of courts in determining that law and that of the legislature in making it serves both moral and practical goals. Only in such a state can people feel safe against despotism, he adds. The Trump trade wars are a demonstration of the dangers of unchecked power. We have also been given an object lesson in the economic costs.Take a break from the newsToday, health is wealth. The boom in wellness — from sleep aids and snacks to fitness tourism — is worth $7tn globally, according to the Global Wellness Institute. The latest accessory being brandished by 20-somethings isn’t a designer bag — it’s a made-to-order protein smoothie in a branded cup.Members’ club Soho House offers photo-friendly protein shakes in its branded cups More

Unlock the Editor’s Digest for freeRoula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.This article is an on-site version of our Unhedged newsletter. Premium subscribers can sign up here to get the newsletter delivered every weekday. Standard subscribers can upgrade to Premium here, or explore all FT newslettersGood morning. We finally had a calm day in markets. The S&P 500 was down less than 0.2 per cent yesterday. Most sectors fell, but only by a little, while info tech and a mix of defensives saw modest rises. How long will that last? Rob is off on holiday, so email me instead: [email protected]. If you have questions about trade we have not answered on Unhedged, please join our colleagues senior trade writer Alan Beattie, US markets editor Kate Duguid and chief foreign affairs commentator Gideon Rachman for a live trade Q&A today at 10am ET/3pm BST. Leave your questions here.Emerging marketsUnhedged had suspected that emerging market equities would be hit especially hard by Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs. More than half of Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs were on EMs, and EM equities tend to underperform in broader risk-off environments. The strongest EMs, particularly tech-heavy countries in south-east Asia, were hit with some of the highest tariffs. And EM assets tend to strain when the dollar strengthens — which, we were told, would happen after US tariffs took effect. That turned out to be wrong. While both the MSCI emerging markets index and the MSCI emerging markets index excluding China fell hard in the first few days after the tariffs, MSCI emerging markets ex China did not fall as sharply as the S&P 500. And both have outperformed the S&P 500 since April 2:There are a few potential explanations. While the market’s fall immediately after “liberation day” was a risk-off event, the storm was most severe in the US. That may have been from investors locking in their gains from years of US outperformance. Or it could have been emblematic of something worse — a flight from American capital towards other countries’ assets, as suggested by the fall of the dollar alongside rising Treasury yields.Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs — and his eventual pause — was also a positive surprise for some EM investors. There was already some EM weakness priced in going into “liberation day”; according to the Institute of International Finance, portfolio flows to emerging market equities fell sharply in March — particularly flows to China ($9bn outflow), but also flows to most other EM countries. However, with the exception of China, EMs have not been the focus of Trump’s policies, or so says Thierry Wizman of Macquarie Capital:By dint of luck [such as not having big car industries], or because they have low trade with the US, many EMs — particularly in Latin America — got off pretty well after “liberation day” . . . That they are really off of Trump’s radar screen is perceived as a net benefit by investors.Though the EMs in China’s periphery such as Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam were hit particularly hard, Trump’s 90-day pause and his exemption of electronics tariffs has given those countries’ equities a boost, at least for now.But, as is always the case with diverse EMs ranging from developed economies such as Taiwan to relatively poor countries such as Nigeria, there has been a range of outcomes. The outlooks have differed, too — and have changed radically since Trump paused his ‘reciprocal tariffs’, and doubled down on China. Some countries stand to benefit from the growing rift between the US and China, and their equity indices have been lifted further by Trump’s recent focus on Beijing. Indian manufacturers hope to fill the void of cheap goods flowing to the US, and countries such as Brazil and South Africa can satiate some of China’s demand for non-US agriculture. Others may struggle if China languishes. For example, equities in countries in Latin America that rely on Chinese investment — including Peru and Argentina — have either fallen or just barely beaten the broader emerging markets ex-China index since Trump’s reversal. And with falling oil prices and what many fear will be slowing global energy demand, oil exporters such as Saudi Arabia have underperformed:Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.But, broadly speaking, EM equities look better positioned than we would have expected. The picture is similar for fixed income. Spreads between emerging market bonds and safer assets have widened only modestly since the middle of March. Meanwhile, US high-yield spreads have stretched dramatically, indicating a bigger sell-off of riskier US debt than EM bonds:It is tempting to say that EM strength — on both the equity and fixed-income sides — is a sign of the end of American exceptionalism. Indeed, many EM countries have benefited from the falling dollar, which has strengthened their currencies in comparison and made it easier for sovereigns and local corporations to service their debts. And the pick-up in US high yield, above and beyond EM spreads, is particularly concerning. But Unhedged will not go that far yet. Though EM outperformance could be a sign of shifting global capital flows, equity outperformance has been marginal and varied, and we still do not have the full flows data from the first half of April. And other indicators of a shifting global regime have not been strong enough to draw any conclusions: US Treasury auctions have been fine, and we have not seen other obvious signs of a drawback by foreign buyers.On the EM fixed-income side, as William Jackson at Capital Economics notes, there is also a lot of variation:[Spreads for] major EMs [have only widened] around 10 to 20 basis points since ‘reciprocal tariffs’ were first announced; they’ve risen further in some oil producers (Gabon, Angola, Iraq) and some EMs where concerns over debt distress are high (Bolivia, Kenya, etc)And some of the gap between spreads in the US and EMs is down to divergent paths for monetary policy. Various EMs have successfully tamed inflation, and are likely to cut their policy rates in the coming months to fight off a potential global slowdown. Meanwhile, the monetary policy outlook for the US remains unclear. We are still in the early stages of the post-“liberation day” fallout, too. ‘Reciprocal tariffs’ — or something more dire — could still be applied to imports from EMs after 90 days, making them worse off by comparison. Trump’s tariffs also matter more for the US than they matter for most EMs; US businesses are dealing with uncertainty on all fronts, whereas EM companies and sovereigns are just contending with potentially slower growth and their changing relationship to the US and China. More clarity in the US — and lower tariff barriers (we hope) — could lift American assets again. One good readADHD.FT Unhedged podcastCan’t get enough of Unhedged? Listen to our new podcast, for a 15-minute dive into the latest markets news and financial headlines, twice a week. Catch up on past editions of the newsletter here.Recommended newsletters for youDue Diligence — Top stories from the world of corporate finance. 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China’s economy grew a robust 5.4 per cent in the first quarter of this year as producers frontloaded exports to beat a blitz of tariffs from US President Donald Trump that threatens to decouple the world’s two largest economies.The official GDP figures, released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday, matched the year-on-year growth rate in the fourth quarter despite Trump’s first salvo of additional 20 per cent tariffs taking effect.The growth exceeded Beijing’s full-year target for 2025 as well as the 5.1 per cent forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll.But economists expect China’s economy to come under pressure as the full US levies take force.The economy had a “good start” in the first quarter, said NBS deputy commissioner Sheng Laiyun.But he warned that “the current external environment is becoming increasingly complex and severe, the driving force for domestic effective demand growth is insufficient and the foundation for the economy to continue its rebound and improvement still needs to be solidified”.Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.Chinese markets declined, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index falling 2.5 per cent while mainland China’s CSI 300 index shed 0.9 per cent. The renminbi weakened 0.15 per cent to Rmb7.326 a dollar.China on Wednesday rejigged its trade negotiating team ahead of potential talks with the US over tariffs, naming its representative to the World Trade Organization, Li Chenggang, as its top official.Li, who was educated partly in Germany, is replacing Wang Shouwen, who served in the role from July 2022.Li “is a lawyer by training, which positions him better than Wang Shouwen to handle the complex legal issues that are emerging in the current negotiations”, said Henry Gao, professor of law at Singapore Management University.The change “demonstrates China’s willingness to delve into legal intricacies during negotiations, suggesting a strategic approach to resolving the ongoing trade war”, he added.Beijing has set what analysts have described as an ambitious growth target of 5 per cent for this year, which policymakers have pledged to back with stimulus measures, funded by a record budget deficit target for the central government.But economists have downgraded their forecasts in the wake of Trump’s trade war, with Morgan Stanley cutting its estimate for China’s 2025 GDP growth from 4.5 per cent to 4.2 per cent. UBS projects the economy will grow just 3.4 per cent, and Goldman Sachs forecasts 4 per cent growth.“China needed to get off to a strong start in the first quarter to have any chance of hitting the full-year target,” said Lynn Song, ING’s greater China chief economist.Higher industrial production in the first quarter could “also partly [be] due to just frontloading” exports to the US, he added, “so we’ll have to see how the next couple months unfold”.Goldman analysts said they expected “China’s sequential growth to fall meaningfully” in the second quarter “due mainly to the strong headwinds from increased US tariffs and potential payback effects from previous export frontloading”.Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.Trump has imposed a total of 145 per cent additional levies on Chinese goods, although he granted what he said would be temporary exemptions on products such as smartphones and electronics. China has responded with retaliatory duties of 125 per cent.Beijing and Washington stepped up their rhetoric in the trade stand-off this week. Trump on Tuesday said China “needs to make a deal with us”.“We don’t have to make a deal with them,” he added. “They need our money.”Later, he said “the ball is in China’s court” to start talks.But Xia Baolong, director of the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office, said China would not be intimidated.“The Chinese people have persevered through hardships, and anyone who attempts to drag us back to a state of poverty and weakness is our enemy,” he said.The Chinese growth figures come as households struggle to recover from a deep property slowdown that has damped consumer sentiment and domestic demand.The NBS on Wednesday said retail sales rose 5.9 per cent last month against a year earlier, beating the average analyst forecast of 4.2 per cent and a reading of 4 per cent for the January-February period.March industrial production was up 7.7 per cent from 5.9 per cent in January-February, also beating analysts’ forecasts.In the face of deflationary pressures from weak household demand, Chinese policymakers have leaned on manufacturing and exports to drive growth. The country reported a record global trade surplus last year of nearly $1tn despite increasing tensions with its trading partners.Figures released on Monday showed exports rose 12.4 per cent in dollar terms in March on a year earlier, the biggest rise since October, while imports fell 4.3 per cent.NBS’s Sheng said the rapid growth in exports despite the increase in tariffs and trade restrictions since February demonstrated China’s “resilience”.“We have a rich toolbox of policy options, ensuring that we can respond to external shocks and challenges,” he said.Data visualisation by Haohsiang Ko in Hong Kong More

Unlock the White House Watch newsletter for freeYour guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the worldGlobal auto parts suppliers have entered a bruising pricing battle with carmakers as they seek to survive prohibitive tariffs that could wipe out thousands of smaller players from the $1tn industry. The clash comes as car manufacturers are also holding crunch talks with Donald Trump to dissuade him from pushing ahead with 25 per cent tariffs on the majority of imported car parts from May 3. The US president signalled on Monday that there would be “help” for the industry but details remain unclear on how the parts tariffs will be implemented.Jean-Louis Pech, head of French trade body Fiev representing car parts suppliers, said its members were “bracing themselves for tough negotiations with carmakers who are also under pressure”, adding: “It’s going to be a terrible fight.” French car parts supplier Valeo earlier this month said it had successfully agreed to pass on the extra costs from tariffs to half of its customers, but one global car company said it was standing firm against price increase requests from its 150 suppliers, among whom asked for a contractual pause known as “force majeure”.“We’re not against each other, but we’re both in tough spots,” a senior executive at the car company said. Executives warn that carmakers will probably resist attempts by many parts suppliers, already operating on thin margins below 5 per cent, to pass on the tariff costs amid concerns about a possible recession and sluggish vehicle demand.Most parts supply contracts do not automatically allow car parts contractors to pass on costs to clients, with more than half of those surveyed by EU trade body Clepa and McKinsey saying they would have to renegotiate contracts to adapt to the tariffs.In Europe, the industry had already been under severe financial pressure long before the trade war broke out due to slowing vehicle demand. Job losses more than doubled last year while several German suppliers, including seat producer Recaro and luxury car part maker Walter Klein, went bankrupt.To support the industry, Pech called for Brussels to put in place more local content rules on car parts, subsidies for EV purchases and an investment programme akin to Joe Biden’s IRA. “We risk losing half of the existing [French] industry if nothing is done in the next five years,” said Pech, adding that France had 56,000 jobs linked to car parts. The impact of the tariff shock on the sector could be worse than during the pandemic, warn executives. The relationship between suppliers and their clients then became strained, as carmakers refused to fully absorb the soaring costs of securing components, especially semiconductors, which were in extremely short supply.Most suppliers struggled with squeezed profit margins, while carmakers — especially premium brands such as Mercedes-Benz and BMW — raised prices and expanded their margins during the period.“We can’t absorb the costs again,” one executive at a German supplier said.“If things stay as they are now, [bankruptcies] will be part of the picture: suppliers can either absorb the cost or lose market share,” said Benjamin Krieger, Clepa’s secretary-general. French car parts maker OPmobility has been hit by recent decisions by Stellantis and other carmakers to suspend production at sites such as Mexico and Canada to import cars to the US. “When a client like Stellantis stops, we have no choice but to stop,” chief executive Laurent Favre said. Compared with Europe, automotive experts say consolidation among Japan’s parts contractors has been held back by the corporate keiretsu network founded on cross-shareholdings with the likes of Toyota and Honda at the centre.Toyota has informed suppliers that it will shoulder the extra cost of tariffs, according to two people familiar with the matter, although some parts suppliers question how long the group can continue providing the support.Japanese auto parts suppliers are under pressure with bankruptcies hitting an 11-year high of 36 companies in 2024, according to data from Tokyo Shoko Research.Hideki Takamiya, president of mobility solutions at Starlite, an Osaka-based grille supplier to Mazda, Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors, highlighted the fears rippling through supplier ranks. He forecast a 10 per cent drop in sales from the tariffs on finished cars alone and a potential “double punch” from a stronger yen for Japanese exports.“I want to say that we can turn this risk into an opportunity but there’s no opportunities here, just risks,” he said. “If we don’t strike new balanced partnerships between car and parts makers, then we won’t survive.” More

This article is an on-site version of our Europe Express newsletter. Premium subscribers can sign up here to get the newsletter delivered every weekday and fortnightly on Saturday morning. Standard subscribers can upgrade to Premium here, or explore all FT newslettersGood morning. A scoop to start: France and the UK are in early talks to reach an agreement on migrant returns across the Channel, officials have said.Today, our finance and trade correspondents report on the uncertain future for Ukrainian food exports into the EU, while our Dublin correspondent has news of a Donald Trump-related threat to Irish students hoping to work a summer in the US.How has Trump changed the world order? Join senior trade writer Alan Beattie, US markets editor Kate Duguid and chief foreign affairs commentator Gideon Rachman for a live Q&A at 4pm CET today. Bridging the gapThe European Commission won’t extend trade measures giving Ukraine free access to the EU market, trying instead to negotiate broader trade liberalisation by a tight June 5 deadline, write Paola Tamma and Andy Bounds.Context: So-called Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs) abolishing tariffs on Ukrainian goods have been in place since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, to enable Ukraine to export its agricultural goods overland and avoid the contested Black Sea. But EU countries bordering Ukraine, including Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, have been lamenting that Ukrainian imports undercut domestic prices and spurred unrest among farmers. The commission has introduced “emergency brakes” limiting imports of foodstuffs like eggs, poultry, sugar, oats, maize, groats and honey that can be triggered once import levels surpass a certain threshold.The measures expire in early June, and will not be renewed this time. “The decision on the European Council is already made, ATMs are expiring,” Adam Szłapka, EU affairs minister for Poland, said last week.The question is what comes in their place. The commission promised to negotiate broader bilateral trade liberalisation under the EU-Ukraine association agreement last year, but the process has not yet begun. Two EU diplomats said the commission has delayed the proposal to avoid stirring up Polish farmers before Poland’s presidential election on May 18.“The commission is committed to consultations with Ukraine . . . and our goal is to address reciprocal tariff liberalisation. We are finalising the work in this proposal and we will present it, as soon as we can, to Ukraine,” commission spokesperson Olof Gill said yesterday. “The goal of this process is to ensure economic stability and predictability for businesses and farmers both in Ukraine and the EU,” Gill added.But negotiations on this proposal would need to reach an agreement by June 5 to provide a “seamless transition”, as promised by the commission.Many fear that is unlikely, and would leave Ukraine with pre-invasion trade conditions under which its exports would face high tariffs — something that the country can ill-afford, as support from the US in its war against Russia wavers.An EU official said they were working on a “legal bridge” should there be no agreement before the deadline.“Trade liberalisation should continue because the war is still there,” Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy premier, said last week. Negotiations should lead to “transparent and sustainable trade liberalisation that addresses the concerns of member states but does not reverse progress,” she added.Chart du jour: End of an eraSome content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.Almost 84,000 active US service members are spread across at least 38 European bases — some of them dating back to the end of the second world war — which are all at risk of a withdrawal by Washington.Travel warningFor many Irish students, a working summer holiday in the US has long been a rite of passage. But the Union of Students in Ireland (USI) is now urging participants to be careful of “the potential risks involved in activism” while there, writes Jude Webber.Context: US President Donald Trump has clamped down on what he terms “antisemitism” since returning to office. A US immigration judge last week ruled that Columbia University graduate Mahmoud Khalil, a Syrian-born green card holder, could be deported for taking part in pro-Palestinian protests. Opponents say Trump is stifling free speech.The USI urged holders of so-called J1 visas in the US to be “cautious and informed”, and slammed “any attempt to restrict the rights of Irish students on J1 visas to engage in activism, including support for the Middle East”.Ireland, together with Spain and Norway, last year officially recognised the state of Palestine, and sympathy for Palestinians is high in Ireland, which had its own history of colonisation by Britain.The J1 programme, typically billed as offering “ridiculous fun” by the USI, allows Irish and US students to study and work in each others’ countries. But as the EU issues its officials with burner phones to avoid the risk of espionage while on official trips to the US, some student leaders are also warning J1 participants to delete their social media history before travelling to avoid problems with immigration officials.Some participants are boycotting the programme altogether in favour of EU locations.What to watch today European Commission to present report on dangerous products.German Chancellor Olaf Scholz meets Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw.Now read theseGuns vs butter: Belgium is preparing to borrow more and implement welfare cuts to reach Nato’s current defence spending goal.Turning tables: European carmakers are increasingly doing deals with Chinese rivals to prevent them from falling behind in core areas.Staying hopeful: The US is engaging in efforts to negotiate a landmark global tax deal despite Trump’s criticism of the agreement, according to the OECD. Recommended newsletters for you Free Lunch — Your guide to the global economic policy debate. Sign up hereThe State of Britain — Peter Foster’s guide to the UK’s economy, trade and investment in a changing world. Sign up hereAre you enjoying Europe Express? Sign up here to have it delivered straight to your inbox every workday at 7am CET and on Saturdays at noon CET. Do tell us what you think, we love to hear from you: [email protected]. Keep up with the latest European stories @FT Europe More