Aurelia Butler

HONG KONG (Reuters) -HSBC Holdings will raise its mortgage rates in Hong Kong by a maximum of 50 basis points, a spokesperson for the bank said on Monday, as it tries to maintain its profit margin amid higher interest rates.New mortgage loans linked to the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) from HSBC will be increased to as much as 4.125% from 3.625%, effective Sept. 18, according to the spokesperson.”We have decided to revise our mortgage rate following a recent review, which takes into account a range of factors, including HIBOR, our competitiveness and market pricing,” the spokesperson said in a statement.The move by the territory’s largest lender weighed on Hong Kong property developers’ stocks on Monday, with the market’s real estate gauge shedding 3.28%, compared with a 0.58% dip in the benchmark Hang Seng Index.Sun Hung Kai Properties slumped 9.5% after the Hong Kong property giant reported a 17% decline in underlying profit for the year ended June.Hong Kong banks, including HSBC, last raised mortgage rates by 25 basis points in December, after Hong Kong’s central bank hiked rates following the U.S. Federal Reserve. Interest rates in Hong Kong have been on the rise as its monetary policy moves in lock-step with the U.S., as its currency is pegged to the U.S. dollar.Hong Kong interbank rates also spiked this year. One-month HIBOR, which is the benchmark banks take as a reference for residential mortgages in the city, hit 5.42988% on Aug. 2, the highest since mid-October, 2007.Private home prices in the city had been declining for three consecutive months by July, official data showed, as high rates and a weak economic outlook weigh on sentiment. More

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – U.S. West Coast ports, which reached a labor deal with their workers this summer, gained market share in August from the previous month, while their main rivals on the East Coast lost ground, Descartes (NASDAQ:DSGX) Systems Group said on Monday.For more than a year, as worker labor talks dragged on, West Coast ports lost market share. Worried shippers diverted containers filled with everything from furniture to food to ports on the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico. Some shippers told Reuters they started sending cargo back to West Coast ports before employers and the longshore union reached a tentative contract agreement covering 22,000 dockworkers on June 15 and employees ratified the deal on Aug. 31. August market share for the biggest West Coast ports rose 3.6% from July to 41.9%, while the top ports on the East and Gulf Coasts fell 3.3% to 43.1%. While it is too early to tell if the West Coast labor deal swayed the August results, “we can expect some of the 1 million TEUs that left to come back now that the uncertainty is gone,” Chris Jones, an executive vice president at Descartes, said referring to 20-foot equivalent units, a measurement standard for ocean cargo. The Port of Los Angeles, historically the nation’s busiest, handled 47,095 more TEU in August than July, an increase of 12.9%. The adjacent Port of Long Beach gained 12.1%, after adding 35,996 TEU. Across the country, the busiest East Coast port at New York/New Jersey processed 24,089 fewer TEU versus July, a 6.3% decline. Savannah, Georgia’s port had the biggest drop at 11.4%, or 26,020 fewer TEU. “The continuing drought situation in Panama may hasten that return” of cargo to the West Coast, Descartes said in its report. Low water levels in the Panama Canal have slowed ship passages, which could prompt some companies to reroute cargo destined for the East Coast and Gulf Coast to the West Coast. More

(Reuters) – Retail traders getting their first bite at Arm Holdings’ highly anticipated public offering when the British chip designer begins trading this week should beware: individual investors often get burned when they jump on hot listings.Arm’s goal of raising around $5 billion in New York in what might be the biggest IPO of 2023 follows other major listings in recent years whose returns have mostly disappointed.Since Arm, owned by Japan’s SoftBank (TYO:9984) Group’s, is not well-known among consumers, it is focusing its IPO marketing efforts on institutional investors, people familiar with the deal said.That leaves Main Street investors to buy Arm shares at potentially higher prices once they begin trading. With retail investors holding individual stocks for less than a year on average, recent history suggests they could lose money, a Reuters analysis shows.The 10 biggest U.S. initial public offerings (IPOs) of the past four years are down an average of 47% from the closing price on their first day of trading, according to the analysis of LSEG data as of Friday. Investors who bought at the top of an intra-day price surge that often occurs in high-profile listings would have fared even worse, with an average loss of 53%.Only two of the stocks in those top 10 are up from their IPO prices: software seller Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW) and Airbnb, which leads with a 111% return.While dabbling in individual stocks is a notoriously risky business for amateur investors, the analysis underscores just how perilous it can be to buy into blockbuster IPOs on Day One. Even institutional investors invited to buy into those 10 IPOs before trading would be down an average of 18%.The S&P 500 has gained an average of 13% since each of those IPOs, nine of which happened in 2020 and 2021.”If you’re buying in the market, on average, you’re buying at a premium to the offer price,” said Jay Ritter, a professor at the University of Florida who studies IPOs. “For almost all retail investors, buying and holding a low-cost index fund is the best strategy.”Arm’s debut and an upcoming listing from grocery delivery service Instacart are expected to rejuvenate a lackluster IPO market which has slowed over the past two years due to volatility and economic uncertainty. Instacart will be offering some retail investors a chance to buy into its IPO via underwriter fintech company SoFi (NASDAQ:SOFI), its prospectus said.While Arm is a business-to-business company with little consumer brand recognition, its IPO publicity is likely to attract retail interest, said analysts. Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), the chipmaker at the center of an artificial intelligence boom, has been a retail favorite this year. Retail participation in U.S. stocks surged in 2021, fueled by low interest rates, zero-cost trading apps, and social media hype around GameStop (NYSE:GME) and other so-called meme stocks. But Main Street investors have become more cautious after last year’s stock market sell-off, said Marco Iachini, a senior vice president at Vanda (NASDAQ:VNDA) Research, which tracks retail trades. “Whatever comes out of the Arm IPO, you’ll see niches of the retail community trying to get in on it, but it’s not going to be at the levels we saw in some of the IPOs in 2021,” he said.Spokespeople for Arm and SoFi declined to comment. Spokespeople for Instacart and the 10 companies whose IPOs were analyzed did not provide comment, or did not respond to comment requests.CRUSHED VALUATIONS Arm is seeking up to $51 per share, potentially valuing it at more than $50 billion – the most valuable company to list in New York since electric carmaker Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) Automotive debuted in 2021.Burning through cash to ramp up production, Rivian’s market value has collapsed by over $60 billion since it listed. Also among the biggest IPOs in recent years, food delivery company DoorDash’s stock remains down by more than half from its intraday high on its December 2020 debut.To be sure, it has been a tough few years for IPOs. Wall Street’s steep sell-off in 2022, along with rising interest rates and fears of a potential U.S. recession, have crushed valuations of companies that went public before they were profitable. But studies by Ritter and others have shown IPOs offer poor returns.In the past four years, over 260 IPOs have debuted with stock market values above $1 billion, mostly in the technology, healthcare and consumer discretionary sectors, according to LSEG. They are down on average 29% from their offering prices and down 49% from their initial trading highs.One standout among recent big IPOs is chipmaker GlobalFoundries, which has gained 23% since its 2021 listing, compared to the S&P 500’s 3% dip over that time. More

1. Futures point higherU.S. stock futures edged into the green on Monday, extending gains made in the final session of the prior week, as investors looked ahead to the release of a batch of fresh economic data in the coming days.At 05:54 ET (09:54 GMT), the Dow futures contract added 79 points or 0.2%, S&P 500 futures rose by 17 points or 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures jumped by 84 points or 0.5%.On Friday, the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed by 0.2%, while the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite both inched up by about 0.1%. However, over the whole trading week, all three of the major indices finished lower.Attention now turns to a series of economic releases out of the U.S. later this week, with traders hoping that the figures will provide some clues about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path. Recent data have suggested that the world’s largest economy has remained resilient despite a nearly year-and-a-half long surge in interest rates, fueling some bets that the Fed may roll out another hike this year.2. CPI figures to headline U.S. data this weekConsumer prices will be in the spotlight this week as Fed policymakers and markets alike watch out for signs that inflation is cooling back down to the Fed’s 2% target.Economists expect the annual headline consumer price index (CPI) to have accelerated to 3.6% in August from 3.2% in the prior month, due in part to a recent jump in energy costs. On a monthly basis, the measure is anticipated to have picked up to 0.6% after a 0.2% increase in July. The core reading, which strips out volatile items like food and fuel, is estimated to slow to 4.3% year-on-year and hold steady at 0.2% month-on-month.Following Wednesday’s CPI release, Fed officials will have had two separate months of consumer price data to parse through ahead of their Sept. 19-20 policy meeting. The U.S. central bank, which has vowed to be “data-dependent” heading into the gathering, is widely tipped to keep borrowing costs unchanged at a range of 5.25% to 5.50%.Rounding out the inflation picture this week will be the publication of the latest monthly producer price index, while retail sales numbers on Thursday may sketch a rough outline of the consumer spending picture.3. Alibaba’s (HK:9988) outgoing CEO steps down as cloud unit chiefOutgoing Alibaba boss Daniel Zhang has stepped down as the head of its cloud division, surprising many observers who had expected him to helm the unit after a planned break-up of the Chinese business empire.In a statement, Alibaba said that Eddie Yongming Wu will take over as acting Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the division, and will also take over as CEO of the wider group. Hong Kong-listed shares in Alibaba slumped following the announcement.Earlier this year, Alibaba said Zhang would step down as CEO of the firm as part of a plan to split its core businesses into six separate entities. Zhang was reportedly intended to lead the spun-off cloud unit, which is also set to seek a separate listing.Alibaba noted that it still intends to go ahead with the proposed spin-off of its Alibaba Cloud Intelligence Group under a separate management team.4. Renminbi rallies; yen risesChina’s renminbi bounced back from a 16-year low against the dollar on Monday after China’s central bank set an unexpectedly strong daily midpoint guidance rate, hinting at how uncomfortable policymakers in the country have become with the currency’s recent weakness.The People’s Bank of China placed its midpoint rate, which sets a 2% trading band around the onshore yuan, at 7.2148 per dollar, far above of market forecasts.The PBOC has been setting firmer-than-anticipated daily guidance rates over the past few months to help shore up the currency. Financial regulators in China said on Monday they were still “confident” that they can help bring stability to the yuan after it slumped to its lowest level against the greenback since 2007 late last week. Elsewhere, Japan’s yen was among the best performers in Asia today, buoyed by comments from Bank of Japan head Kazuo Ueda that sparked hopes for policy tightening.Ueda told a local newspaper that the BOJ could have enough data by the end of the year to determine whether rates should stay below zero. He added that wage growth has also somewhat picked up in the country, adding to speculation that Japan’s central bank may be nearing the end of an almost decade-long era of negative interest rates.5. Arm eyeing IPO pricing at top of range – ReutersArm is closing in on attaining enough investor support to secure the fully diluted valuation of $54.5 billion it is seeking in its initial public offering at the top of its indicated range, according to a Reuters report over the weekend.The British chip designer, which is owned by Japan’s SoftBank (TYO:9984) Group, may be able to price the highly-anticipated IPO at the top end — or even above — its stated range of $47 to $51 a share, Reuters added, citing people familiar with the matter.Sources also told the news agency that, due to strong investor demand for the IPO, Arm is exploring possibly increasing that range to a level that could push its valuation above $54.5B. However, Arm will reportedly not be offering more shares, as SoftBank looks to maintain a 90.6% stake in the company following the flotation.A decision on the price range may come this week, the unnamed sources told Reuters, although they warned that many investor commitments have yet to be finalized. Both Arm and SoftBank declined to comment to Reuters.Arm is hoping to rake in roughly $5B from its sale of about 10% of the total shares outstanding, in what is expected to be the largest IPO this year. More

PwC is planning to cut back on its consulting work to the tune of several million dollars and implement changes to pay for its US leadership.The plan would target miscellaneous consulting work, which would be phased out by 2025, and would not touch the firm’s tax work. PwC was set to announce the details in May, but it was embroiled in a scandal in Australia in which partners were revealed to have misused confidential information about the government’s tax plans, according to people familiar with the situation.In addition to cutting consulting, PwC aims to implement pay clawback provisions for its seven-strong US leadership team, which will be activated in the event of ethics scandals or other firm-wide failures.The accounting firm’s US leaders are keen to avoid criticism from clients and to improve its reputation, particularly among younger potential recruits. PwC’s move comes shortly after one of its Big Four rivals, EY, failed to spin off the consulting arm of its business. Before going ahead with its plan to curtail consulting, PwC had suggested large accounting firms act together via an industry group called the Center for Audit Quality, but it did not get cross-industry backing for its ideas.The move will put pressure on other large accounting firms to implement changes. “We have really good competitors but what they do is up to them,” said Tim Ryan, senior partner of PwC US.Read the full story on PwC’s plan to cut down its consulting business here.Here’s what else I’m keeping tabs on today:Biden’s itinerary: The US president is holding a meeting with his Vietnamese counterpart, Vo Van Thuong, in a bid to strengthen relations between the two. He will then travel to Alaska where he will mark the 22nd anniversary of 9/11.Results: Oracle and Vistry Group report.Five more top stories1. Google is preparing to take on the US government in a landmark antitrust case over contracts that the justice department alleges illegally shut out competitors. Legal observers say the outcome will be an important test of the ambitious strategy of US regulators and help determine the Biden administration’s efforts to rein in Big Tech.2. Interview: Janet Yellen touted the US plan to increase funding for the World Bank that was agreed at the G20 summit at the weekend. The US Treasury secretary also defended the group’s joint statement, particularly accusations that it had weakened its position on Ukraine, telling the FT the statement was “substantively very strong”.3. Venezuelan bonds have rallied as investors bet on a diplomatic breakthrough with the US. News of talks between the two countries have pushed bonds to trade at 10 to 11 cents on the dollar, up from 8 to 9 cents a few weeks ago, as investors bet on warming relations that could lead to a softening of US sanctions.4. Nato is preparing its biggest live joint command exercise since the cold war next year, assembling more than 40,000 troops to practise how the alliance would attempt to repel Russian aggression against one of its members. The Steadfast Defender exercise will start in the spring as part of Nato’s rapid push to transform from crisis response to a war-fighting alliance.5. Spanish football chief Luis Rubiales has resigned from his post days after prosecutors filed a criminal complaint against him for kissing Spanish player Jenni Hermoso during World Cup celebrations. Rubiales’s actions have stirred anger about the treatment of women in sport and the prevalence of machismo in Spanish society.The Big Read

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Singapore’s open, trade-reliant economy has proved resilient to external shocks such as rising global protectionism and supply chain fragmentation. But as the city-state wrestles with rising inequality — linked to unrestrained capital inflows from the US, Europe and especially China — some are questioning whether its economic model so reliant on foreign capital is benefiting citizens as it once did.We’re also reading and listening to . . . Retail media: Supermarkets are looking for more profitable ventures, and the next big product is your data, writes Helen Thomas.US banks’ exceptionalism: The era when foreign lenders in China were immune to geopolitical tensions between Beijing and the west has come to an end — it’s a surprise it didn’t happen sooner, writes Patrick Jenkins.Behind the Money 🎧: FT technology correspondent Tim Bradshaw and author James Ashton discuss Arm’s looming IPO and whether all the excitement around the chip designer will actually generate profits for investors.Map of the dayA powerful earthquake struck Morocco on Friday night, killing more than 2,000 people and injuring another 2,000, according to reports on Sunday. The quake is the strongest to hit north Africa in 120 years. Rescuers are combing through the rubble as the window to reach survivors starts to close.Take a break from the news

There are few better places to get a sense of Switzerland than in Zürich’s street markets. From Bürkliplatz to Kanzlei, FT Globetrotter takes us to markets filled with stories about the country, its people and its economy.Additional contributions from Grace Ramos and Benjamin Wilhelm More

Good morning after a busy weekend in New Delhi. You can find all of our G20 coverage here, including: news of the EU-backed project to create a trade corridor from India to Europe, anger at the group’s failure to crack down on fossil fuel usage, and Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni’s latest step in pulling Rome from China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Today, I explain why some European delegates left the New Delhi summit feeling like they’d scored a victory, even as many fear the west compromised on its Ukraine stance. And we hear from the EBRD’s chief economist on the oft-overlooked benefits of getting a country ready for EU membership.Tough sellThe EU’s G20 delegates arrived in New Delhi ahead of this past weekend’s summit pledging to “defend our principles” regarding the war in Ukraine. They left, somewhat chastened, talking of the value in “formulating compromise.”Context: This year’s leaders’ summit, which ended yesterday, issued a joint statement that did not feature any condemnation of Russia for its war against Ukraine, drawing ire from Kyiv. But European officials vehemently claim that they are playing the long game. Stripping out language critical of Russia from the joint statement, they say, was the price of getting a text that all members would agree on — and thus, in theory, be bound by.As such, the west can now point to the statement and call on India, Brazil, South Africa and others to put pressure on Russia to stick to its declarations, from respecting territorial integrity to implementing the Black Sea grain initiative and — the big one — finding a “just peace” in Ukraine.That, however, relies on these countries making good on their promises. Absent proof of that, the feeling was that Europe had given ground now for the chance of uncertain gains sometime in the future. “It is step by step,” said one European delegate at the summit. “[Success] will depend on our ability to persuade emerging economies.”The mood music was not helped by French president Emmanuel Macron who, in attempting to defend the statement’s compromises, echoed China’s longstanding criticism that the US, EU and its G7 allies talk too much about Ukraine. “Let’s face it, let’s be honest, the G20 is not the forum for political discussions,” he said in his post-summit press conference.Adding to the geopolitical 3D chess, the US — which wants to tighten relations with India — was particularly keen for host prime minister Narendra Modi to forge a consensus statement. “For us it is not a good outcome,” said one senior EU diplomat. “We have been caught between the US who wanted to please Modi and the Chinese who were leaning on the Russian side.”Chart du jour: Rising tollRescuers are still digging through collapsed buildings in Morocco’s High Atlas region in search of survivors, after a 6.8 magnitude quake struck the country on Friday night, killing more than 2,000 people. Reform, nowGovernments on the EU’s accession list are increasingly frustrated with the wait. But the time spent focusing on reforms is crucial, writes Alice Hancock.Beata Javorcik, chief economist of the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) told the FT that measures to meet the bloc’s benchmarks for democracy and rule of law are more important than the strength of candidate countries’ economies.Context: The prospect of the EU expanding is looming ever closer, boosted by the need to assure Ukraine that it can join the bloc in the not too distant future, improving the prospect for other candidates too. European Council president Charles Michel has called for the EU to be ready to expand its borders by 2030.Without mentioning the bloc’s recent concerns over rule of law in Hungary or her homeland Poland, Javorcik said: “Everybody knows that the minute you enter the EU, the levers [the] EU has to put pressure on reforms are limited”.That means that “you see a lot of reforms prior [to accession] and then just a drop in interest”, she added.The process of acceding to the EU is neither straightforward nor fast. According to the Pew Research Center, it has taken nine years on average for countries to join the EU since the Maastricht treaties were signed in 1993.Government officials across countries in the EU’s waiting room — among them Ukraine, Moldova, Montenegro and Serbia — have accused Brussels of leading them on.EBRD research shows that cutting corruption has a benefit for countries’ economies not only because it means more money can enter the government’s tax coffers, but also because it decreases people’s intention to migrate.Javorcik said Brussels policymakers must ask whether this path to accession is credible. “Do the people in charge believe that it’s worth investing the effort and political capital?”What to watch today European parliament plenary session kicks off in Strasbourg.Heads of state of Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Luxembourg and Liechtenstein meet Belgian royals in Brussels.Now read theseChicken dinner: The EU is considering scrapping tougher animal welfare rules because of fears over the impact on food inflation.Cyber partners: Russian émigré hackers are teaming up with Turkish cybercriminals to steal your data — and your money.Culture wars: Forget financing, it’s public opinion that really threatens to undermine the green energy transition, warn campaigners. More

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The European Central Bank’s hawks have their last big chance for many months to raise interest rates this week, according to analysts who are divided on whether they will be able to seize it. There are potential pitfalls for the ECB in whichever decision it makes: keeping rates on hold invites criticism that it is giving up too early in the fight against inflation, but raising them risks making a looming economic downturn worse.Ahead of Thursday’s knife-edge decision, Dutch central bank boss Klaas Knot said investors may be underestimating the possibility of a rate rise, not least because persistently high wage growth remains “pretty far off” the level consistent with inflation falling to the ECB’s 2 per cent target. Others, such as Germany’s central bank head Joachim Nagel and Belgian governor Pierre Wunsch, have echoed those concerns. “If they don’t hike in September, the window will close,” said Frederik Ducrozet, head of macroeconomic research at Pictet Wealth Management. “GDP growth is on the verge of contracting, and credit growth is slowing fast.”Whatever happens, this week’s decision is seen as the hardest to call since before the ECB started to raise borrowing costs in July 2022, made more tricky by the lack of any signals from the central bank on its next move for the first time in over a year.The ECB, led by president Christine Lagarde, has raised borrowing costs at nine consecutive policy meetings, lifting its benchmark deposit rate from an all-time low of minus 0.5 per cent to a record high of 3.75 per cent in a push to tame the biggest inflation surge for a generation.More “dovish” members such as Portugal’s central bank boss Mário Centeno say the risk of “doing too much” has become “material” as the outlook for the eurozone economy has deteriorated in recent weeks.Ignazio Visco, governor of Italy’s central bank, said: “I believe we are near the level where we can stop raising rates”, citing measures of underlying inflationary pressure that show it is declining.ECB president Christine Lagarde has overseen nine consecutive rate rises © Boris Roessler/dpaInvestors are betting on a pause, with derivatives markets pricing just a 35 per cent chance of the ECB raising its deposit rate to 4 per cent on September 14. The chance of higher rates fell last week after data revealed sliding business activity, falling German industrial production and a downward revision to second-quarter eurozone growth from 0.3 per cent to 0.1 per cent.Inflation in the eurozone has halved since last year to 5.3 per cent in August. But it is still running well above the ECB target, while upward pressure is coming from rising oil prices and a weakening euro that pushes up import costs, meaning another rate rise is still on the cards.“I anticipate that they [the hawks] will prevail next week and hike,” said Vítor Constâncio, former vice-president of the ECB, predicting inflation will remain high even as the eurozone stagnates. “Stagflation is coming to the euro area, which should imply that for quite some time there will not be other hikes.”The ECB will also publish new quarterly forecasts on Thursday, which are likely to show lower estimates for growth this year as well as slightly higher inflation expectations for both 2023 and 2024. Last year, the ECB was criticised for being too slow to start raising rates after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine sent energy and food prices soaring. The US Federal Reserve reacted quicker and inflation is now lower in the US than in the eurozone.

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“It looks bad if they pause when inflation is still at 5.3 per cent,” said Ludovic Subran, chief economist at German insurer Allianz. “Is the ECB throwing in the towel too early? It is spooky for people who worry about this narrative of stagflation in Europe.”Another reason for the ECB to keep raising rates is a concern that rapid wage growth will keep price pressures stubbornly high, particularly for services companies, for which labour makes up the majority of their costs.Figures published by the ECB last week showed pay per employee in the eurozone rose at an annual rate of 5.5 per cent in the second quarter, while unit labour costs were up 6.4 per cent — both near all-time highs.“The hawks will be able to rely on the numbers to support their position,” said Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at researchers Pantheon Macroeconomics, adding that falling productivity risked fuelling inflation. However, the economic outlook is increasingly grim, bank lending has slowed sharply and the eurozone’s labour market is starting to weaken. These all support the doves’ cause. Core inflation — which excludes energy and food and is seen as a better indicator of underlying price pressures — looks to have peaked this summer. It is expected to fall further as economic activity slows and once discounted German public transport tickets from last summer fall out of the year-on-year comparison this month.“What is the point of tightening monetary policy?” said Dirk Schumacher, a former ECB staffer now working as an economist at French bank Natixis. “It is to slow the economy. Well that is happening now.”

Some predict that, as the ECB nears the peak on rates, it could look to tighten policy using other tools, such as shrinking its balance sheet quicker through so-called quantitative tightening (QT) by bringing forward the end of reinvestments in the €1.7tn bond portfolio it started buying in the pandemic.“We expect the ECB to accelerate the process of QT,” said Camille de Courcel, head of European rates strategy at French bank BNP Paribas. Another option could be to cut the amount of interest paid to commercial banks or governments on their deposits at the ECB.Whether the ECB raises rates or not, the biggest challenge for Lagarde could be trying to convince markets that borrowing costs could still rise should inflation end up remaining too high. Krishna Guha, a former Fed official now vice-chair at US investment bank Evercore-ISI, said: “The ECB is probably done in September either way.” More