Aurelia Butler

$75 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

$75 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

JAKARTA (Reuters) -Indonesia’s anti-graft agency raided the headquarters of the central bank in Jakarta on Monday in relation to a probe into alleged mishandling of a corporate social responsibility programme, the agency and the central bank said.The office of Bank Indonesia (BI) Governor Perry Warjiyo was among those raided, where investigators took documents and electronic devices related to the programme, deputy chief investigator Rudi Setiawan told reporters on Tuesday. The anti-graft agency suspected that the central bank had donated some of its CSR funds to several foundations improperly, Setiawan said.”We’ve already had two suspects that we allege had received funds from BI’s CSR,” Setiawan said. He declined to provide names, nor the size of the funds, but he said the money flow was “quite big”.Investigators would question all central bank officials relevant to the probe, he said. BI said it respected the investigation and would cooperate with the anti-graft agency.The agency in September had said it was investigating CSR programmes run by financial regulators in 2023, including the central bank, for potential misuse of funds for personal gain, according to local media.Warjiyo in September said BI had cooperated with the probe, but defended the governance of its CSR funds.”We can ensure that CSR or BI’s social programmes have strong regulatory governance and their decision-making process is through stages,” Warjiyo told a press conference at the time. BI typically donates to education, social empowerment or religious foundations.The beneficiaries are selected following a survey and must meet a set of requirements, Warjiyo said at the time, adding the board of governors decides on the size of such donations.The central bank allocated 1.6 trillion rupiah ($99.66 million) in 2023 for social programmes and projects supporting micro-, small- and medium-enterprises, as well as price stabilisation measures, according to BI budget documents provided to parliament. There was no breakdown of or details about the use of the funds.The raid happened a day before the central bank started its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, with its decision due to be announced on Wednesday. It is expected to keep policy rates unchanged, according to a narrow majority of economists polled by Reuters.($1 = 16,055.0000 rupiah) More

BENGALURU – U.S. Treasury yield forecasts from bond strategists have marched higher for a second month amid expectations of limited remaining Federal Reserve rate reductions and rising inflation risks in 2025, a Reuters survey found.Having kicked off its easing cycle with a jumbo half-percentage point cut in September, the central bank has lowered its fed funds rate by 75 basis points and looks set to trim another 25 bps on Wednesday to 4.25%-4.50%.Yet, since the first reduction, the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, which moves inversely to prices, has shot up around 70 basis points – hitting a near six-month high of 4.50% last month.The resilience of the world’s largest economy and President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies from tariffs to tax cuts – all expected to be inflationary – have put a dampener on the Fed’s easing plans and pushed yields higher, particularly on longer-dated bonds.While the benchmark 10-year yield has moderated to around 4.40%, the median forecast from a Dec. 12-17 Reuters poll was for it to fall modestly to 4.25% in a year – above the 4.10% recorded last month and 50 bps higher than an October median.Around 55% of forecasters raised their twelve-month 10-year note yield forecasts from November.”If Trump’s policies focus on pushing growth up via increasing deficits, rates have even more room to move up,” said Zhiwei Ren, portfolio manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management. “Over the coming two years, it’s very hard to see those deficits coming down materially – which means the government will have to sell a lot of Treasuries to finance spending.” An Oct. 28 estimate from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a budget-focused think-tank, found Trump’s proposed policies could push up U.S. fiscal debt by $7.75 trillion over the next decade.”Inflation was coming down sharply during the summer, but now that has stopped. The labor market has weakened a bit, but is still strong. Consumer spending is resilient and equities are hitting record highs. Financial conditions may not be as tight as the Fed thinks,” Ren added. “If the Fed keeps cutting in this raging bull market, long-end rates will move even higher.”In line with interest rate futures, economists surveyed by Reuters last week now expect only three more quarter-point rate cuts next year – half the amount predicted earlier this year.Yet, forecasters remained mostly conservative in their point estimates for higher yields.Survey medians from 44 strategists showed the benchmark yield slightly below current levels at 4.30% in three months and 4.27% at end-May, but both higher than November.”Market rates are likely to remain around current levels,” said Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist at PGIM Fixed Income. “While the Fed is likely to continue to cut, it definitely won’t be the one-cut-per-meeting pace priced in at some points over the last several quarters.”A 75%-strong majority, 15 of 20 strategists, responding to an additional question said the 10-year yield was unlikely to cross 5% next year. The last time it did so was in October 2023.”One of the scenarios we considered is a ‘higher for longer’ yield curve, where the 10-year yield could return to 5%. In that case, extending duration, i.e. buying longer-dated bonds, could be detrimental. But it’s not our base case,” said Hong Cheng, head of fixed income and currency research at Morningstar. More

OTTAWA (Reuters) -The abrupt resignation of Canada’s finance minister leaves the government adrift less than a month before the inauguration of a new U.S. administration that could impose crippling sanctions on Canadian exports.Chrystia Freeland quit on Monday after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau offered her a lesser position. She said his wish to increase spending could endanger Canada’s ability to withstand the damage done by the tariffs that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is threatening to impose.Freeland had headed a special cabinet committee on Canada-U.S. relations and was working closely with the 10 provinces to ensure a united response.”As a country we have to project strength and unity, and it’s chaos right now up in Ottawa,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford (NYSE:F) said after a scheduled online conference call of provincial premiers on Monday to discuss the U.S. threat.An unimpressed Alberta premier, Danielle Smith, one of Trudeau’s biggest domestic critics, said the provincial leaders had only learned halfway through their call that the point person on Canada-U.S. relations had quit.”It’s chaos. I’d be looking at this wondering who the next leader is … are they going to be able to bring forward a coherent plan? Is there going to be a team that is able to do a Team Canada approach?” she said.”It’s not the greatest time to have a vacuum,” she added, calling for a national election to help restore stability.Unhappy legislators from the ruling Liberal Party, some of whom have been calling on Trudeau to quit for months, met on Monday in Ottawa to vent their frustration.The Liberals are trailing badly in the polls ahead of an election that must be held by late October 2025. Trudeau has until now ruled out the idea of resigning but if pressure on him mounts significantly, the results could be unpredictable.”Trump will be inaugurated in 34 days. Canada must have a stable government,” former Trudeau foreign policy advisor Roland Paris said in a post on X.When Trump came to power in 2017 he vowed to tear up the trilateral free trade treaty with Canada and Mexico. Freeland, who was then foreign minister, played a large role in helping renegotiate the pact and saving Canada’s economy, which is heavily reliant on the United States.Vincent Rigby, a former national security and intelligence adviser to Trudeau, said Freeland’s departure meant the Canadian stance with Trump was up in the air.”This is going to be quite problematic for the prime minister from a political perspective, but it’s now also going to be problematic in terms of how the Canadian government deals with an incoming Trump presidency,” he said on the sidelines of an event in Washington.The role of chief federal coordinator on U.S. relations now passes to Dominic LeBlanc, the new finance minister, who flew with Trudeau to Florida late last month to meet Trump.”The one thing I think the American administration will respect is a government that’s focused on our common priorities, on the shared issues,” he told reporters after being appointed.Freeland was not invited along. Trump, who made it clear during trade talks in September 2018 that he did not like Freeland, cheered her departure late Monday.”Her behavior was totally toxic, and not at all conducive to making deals which are good for the very unhappy citizens of Canada. She will not be missed!!!” he wrote on his social media platform. More

S$99 per monthComplete digital access to quality FT journalism with expert analysis from industry leaders. Pay a year upfront and save 20%.What’s included Global news & analysisExpert opinionFT App on Android & iOSFT Edit appFirstFT: the day’s biggest stories20+ curated newslettersFollow topics & set alerts with myFTFT Videos & Podcasts20 monthly gift articles to shareLex: FT’s flagship investment column15+ Premium newsletters by leading expertsFT Digital Edition: our digitised print edition More

FRANKFURT (Reuters) – A key indicator of the health of Germany’s property sector likely improved in 2024 and will make further gains next year, but will remain close to the weakest levels in more than a decade, underscoring the sector’s struggles, forecasts on Tuesday showed.Global real estate firm Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) predicted that property transactions in Germany would rise to 35 billion euros ($37 billion) in 2024 and increase further to between 40 billion and 42 billion euros in 2025.The forecasts, if they pan out, would mean that 2023 was a low point in what has been a severe crisis in the industry in Europe’s largest economy. But they also reveal that any recovery will be slow.”Despite the growth, the picture remains sobering,” JLL said.Economic weakness has resulted in companies abandoning or postponing relocation and expansion plans, it said.For years, property in Europe and particularly Germany boomed as interest rates fell, spurring demand. But a sudden jump in interest rates and building costs tipped some developers into insolvency as bank financing dried up and deals froze.Germany has been hardest hit in Europe’s real estate-related rout that has also struck China and the United States.Cuts in interest rates have since lent some support to the market.Separate data on Tuesday pointed to ongoing weakness in the German economy, with business morale worsening more than expected in December, weighed down by companies’ pessimistic assessment of the coming months amid geopolitical uncertainty and an industrial slump.($1 = 0.9535 euros) More

BRUSSELS (Reuters) -The European Commission opened formal proceedings on Tuesday against social media firm TikTok over its suspected failure to limit election interference, notably in the Romanian presidential vote last month.The Commission said it will request information and look into TikTok’s policy on political advertisements and paid-for political content as well as TikTok’s systems to generate recommendations and the risks of them being manipulated. The opening of formal proceedings empowers the Commission to take further enforcement steps and to accept commitments made by TikTok. There is no specific deadline to complete proceedings.China’s Bytedance-owned TikTok said it had protected the integrity of its platform through more than 150 elections worldwide and had provided the European Commission with extensive information on its efforts.It added it did not accept paid political advertisements and proactively removed content violating its policies on misinformation and hate speech.The Commission ordered TikTok on Dec. 5 to freeze data linked to the Romanian elections under the bloc’s sweeping Digital Services Act (DSA), which regulates how the world’s biggest social media companies operate in Europe.Romania’s top court subsquently annulled the presidential election after accusations of Russian meddling and the victory of pro-Russia ultranationalist Calin Georgescu in the first round.The Commission is conscious of the risk of interference in the German parliamentary election in February and the presidential election in Croatia starting on Dec. 29. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the new investigation followed serious indications that foreign actors interfered in the Romanian presidential election.”We must protect our democracies from any kind of foreign interference. Whenever we suspect such interference, especially during elections, we have to act swiftly and firmly,” she said in a statement.This is the third investigation the Commission has launched against TikTok under the DSA, both related to risks for minors. One has been closed after TikTok committed to remove TikTok Lite Rewards from the EU. More