Aurelia Butler

The UK economy is suffering a nasty bout of stagflation and the prospects appear poor. That is the conclusion financial markets drew this week from yet more disappointing data, highlighting the weakness of the post-Covid economy and the persistence of high inflation. With no growth in output since last July and inflationary pressures intensifying as wage growth increases, almost no one is satisfied with the way the economy is working. Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, launched a review into its own performance after accepting inflation was “taking a lot longer than we expected” to fall away. Traders in financial markets shunned UK government debt, sending two-year borrowing costs above the levels hit in the worst moments of Liz Truss’s shortlived tenure as prime minister. And households, facing average real pay no higher than in 2005 and soaring mortgage costs, drew little comfort from ministers telling them that the economy had avoided a recession.All of this is taking place ahead of a general election that is expected next year. Lord Nick Macpherson, a former top official at the Treasury, says this means the government would face voters at a time of recently rising interest rates and necessary economic pain to squeeze inflation out of the system. “I can’t remember an election when, 18 months out [from the vote], interest rates were still rising steeply,” he says.

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Adam Posen, head of the Peterson Institute think-tank in Washington, goes even further, saying that in comparison to the US and eurozone, the UK is suffering the additional problems of Brexit, a loss of credibility of economic governance and the legacy of under-investment in public health and transport services. “It’s not good,” says Posen, highlighting what he says are signs that inflation would stay higher for longer in the UK than in most other advanced economies on both sides of the Atlantic. “The mystery to me is not so much the UK economy doing worse than the eurozone or the US, but why it’s not doing even worse and why sterling remains as strong as it is.” Common problemsChancellor Jeremy Hunt dismissed such talk as “declinist” on Monday. But later in the week he was forced again to address inflationary pressures, saying the government was aware of the pain on families’ budgets and the best he could do was “support the Bank of England as they bear down on inflation”. The chancellor might feel he has cause to be aggrieved by the market and media reaction. Both the US and the eurozone’s own economic difficulties this week show that the UK is not alone. After holding interest rates at between 5 and 5.25 per cent, Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell accepted on Wednesday that US inflation had not been beaten as he signalled the central bank would need to raise interest rates another two times. The Fed still needed to see “credible evidence that inflation is topping out and then beginning to come down”, Powell said.Christine Lagarde, European Central Bank president, also warned that inflation would stay “too high for too long” across the eurozone as she raised interest rates for the eighth consecutive time and presented new forecasts showing higher inflation and slower growth than previously expected.The general economic problems are therefore common, but financial markets have singled the UK out because most believe the issues are more difficult in the UK than elsewhere. Over the past month data has showed core inflation rising from 6.2 per cent in March to 6.8 per cent in April, unlike the more stable rates in the eurozone and US. Wage figures published this week showed average earnings grew at a near-record pace of 7.2 per cent on an annual basis between February and April. These convinced traders that the BoE would need to tighten the screws further because rapidly rising wages were not compatible with a target rate of 2 per cent inflation.By Friday, expectations of UK official interest rates had risen to a peak of close to 6 per cent, having been at as low as 4.5 per cent in early May.

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Views differ on what makes the UK’s situation worse and financial market reaction larger than most other economies when many of the problems are shared.One theory is that it has suffered the worst of all worlds on both sides of the Atlantic. It has had the sort of strong demand seen in the US that has led to labour shortages while also experiencing the blow from high energy prices that the rest of Europe has faced from the Ukraine war. Financial markets and many economists think it will take more than this to explain the continued rapid growth of wages and the downbeat outlook even as the energy price shock starts to dissipate. The outsized market reaction to this week’s data, economists say, is in part due to growing doubts about the wage setting process, the Bank of England’s handling of inflation and the lack of a convincing government strategy to boost growth and productivity in the longer term. The Bank of England may inflict more pain on households — in the form of job losses and higher mortgage costs — in order to bring inflation under control © Charlie Bibby/FTBailey was forced to admit, in recent testimony to MPs, that the BoE’s forecasting models had been misfiring recently, forcing monetary policy committee members to “aim off” in setting interest rates. Under pressure to explain these errors, the BoE this week rushed forward an announcement of a wide-ranging review of its forecasting processes, acknowledging the extent of concerns about its communication of policy decisions. “The Bank of England has managed to dent a well-deserved reputation for competence in this arena over recent quarters,” says Simon French, chief economist at the investment bank Panmure Gordon. One problem arose from the BoE’s protocol of basing forecasts on publicly announced government policy, he says, at times when it was “widely accepted that the policy position lacks credibility” and the government was likely to spend more or tax less. The severity of the challengesThere are two deeper problems. First, that the rapid growth of wages suggests that the public think inflation will stay higher for longer and are seeking to defend their interests. And second, that although Rishi Sunak’s government has managed to rebuild credibility with markets after the autumn’s turmoil, it has not convinced investors it can lift the economy out of its long-term stagnation. This week’s renewed political drama within the Conservative party will not have helped.

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The data this week showed that while the UK has so far avoided recession, output is no higher now than in October 2019 while households’ earnings have been flat since 2005. With more people in work, James Smith, research director at the Resolution Foundation, a think-tank, says this left “much of the economy flatlining and productivity tanking”. Hunt assured an audience at an event in London last week of the government’s commitment to boosting productivity in both the public and private sectors to escape a “low growth trap”. But a report on trade published on Thursday by the Resolution Foundation underlined the severity of the challenges the UK faces. It argued that the most productive parts of the country’s manufacturing sector would be doomed to decline unless ministers embraced the need for a radical rethink of trade arrangements with the EU.Most economists expect the Bank of England to raise rates by 0.25 percentage points to 4.75 per cent on Thursday © Charlie Bibby/FTAndrew Goodwin, at the consultancy Oxford Economics, says that despite the measures announced in Hunt’s March Budget — including the expansion of state-funded childcare to help more parents work — investors are “still waiting for a credible supply side strategy”. In its absence, as the recent data shows, “any growth at all . . . is quite inflationary”, he says.The implications of this are stark. If the UK economy can barely grow without overheating, the Bank of England will be forced to inflict more pain on households — in the form of job losses and higher mortgage costs — in order to bring inflation under control. The first indication of the BoE’s thinking will come on Thursday, when it sets interest rates for the first time since financial markets have taken fright. Almost all economists expect the BoE to raise rates by 0.25 percentage points to 4.75 per cent because they think there is little doubt the economic data has cleared the central bank’s hurdle of wanting to see “more persistent pressures” on prices before it raised rates. Economists at BNP Paribas said that while rate setters might previously have worried about raising interest rates above 5 per cent — because of the “outsized” effect on homeowners — “we now think the monetary policy committee will be more willing to cross the Rubicon”.A protester holds a placard caricaturing the relationship between UK prime minister Rishi Sunak and his predecessor Boris Johnson, during a rally in London this week © Henry Nicholls/AFP/Getty ImagesThere are economists who reject the argument that the UK is inherently more inflationary and think its disinflation is merely delayed. Swati Dhingra, one of the MPC members who has already opposed any further tightening in policy, argued this week that the effects of interest rate rises could take longer to show up than in the past, because fixed rate mortgages were more prevalent. Despite this, higher rates were “already starting to add to ongoing pressures for families that are renting or negotiating in the mortgage market”, she said, and wage growth could also be expected to slow soon. But cautionary voices such as this have become rarer over the past month as the evidence of the UK’s stagflationary problems have mounted. Although the data might improve spontaneously, making the UK’s problems appear less severe, most MPC members are poised to deliver a tough message on Thursday: that they need to keep pressing harder on the brakes because they cannot allow wages and prices to drive each other higher. As Jonathan Haskel, an MPC member, recently said: “As difficult as our current circumstances are, embedded inflation would be worse.” More

Today’s top storiesVeteran Conservative MPs have urged colleagues to endorse a parliamentary report on former prime minister Boris Johnson in the House of Commons on Monday, as jittery Tories consider skipping an expected vote.Odey Asset Management suspended trading in a fourth fund following a “sizeable level” of withdrawal requests in the wake of sexual misconduct allegations against founder Crispin Odey, which have precipitated the break-up of one of London’s oldest hedge fund firms.Job cuts at the big Wall Street banks are set to top 11,000 this year as they unwind a pandemic-era hiring binge.For up-to-the-minute news updates, visit our live blogGood evening.Pause, cut, raise, stick or twist? A series of contrasting policy decisions from central banks this week have highlighted the uncertain nature of global economic recovery and policymakers’ continuing struggle to rein in inflation.The Federal Reserve was first to declare on Wednesday, suspending its rate-raising programme but signalling that two more increases were on the way. Fed chair Jay Powell struggled to explain the “hawkish pause”, leaving a former official to describe the move as “a policy mistake wrapped in a communication error”. Figures on Tuesday had showed the annual pace of US inflation eased last month to its lowest level in more than two years.By contrast, China on Thursday cut its main policy rate for the first time in 10 months, as poor retail sales and industrial production reports reinforced concerns that its post-Covid recovery was faltering (see also our explainer on why the rebound is hanging in the balance).Later that day, the European Central Bank raised rates to 3.5 per cent — the highest level in 22 years — as it struggles with a wage-price spiral and a stagnant economy. The ECB also raised its inflation forecast and cut growth predictions for the next three years. Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel said today that ECB rate-setters still had “a long way to go” to reach their 2 per cent inflation target. The IMF concurred, arguing that “persistently high inflation” meant further rate rises were necessary. Attention now turns to the Bank of England, which makes its decision next Thursday, with markets believing rates will go higher than previously expected, potentially topping 5.7 per cent by the end of the year.BoE governor Andrew Bailey admitted this week that it would take “a lot longer than we expected” for inflation to fall. Figures on Tuesday showing wage growth accelerating pushed UK short-term borrowing costs above the level reached during the turmoil following the “mini” Budget last autumn.The prospect is more grim news for mortgage holders. NatWest and Nationwide, two of the UK’s largest home loan providers, said yesterday they were increasing rates, piling further pressure on household budgets.The BoE has launched a review of how it makes and uses economic forecasts after coming under fire from politicians for repeatedly failing to predict the rise and persistence of inflation. Public confidence in its efforts has hit a record low, according to a survey published today.Although the interest-rate raising cycle is within sight in the US and the EU, it will be harder for BoE policymakers to convince markets that is the case for the UK, the FT editorial board says. A 25 basis point increase makes sense, while a 50bp rise, as some are pushing for, may be too much of a shock for markets. But the central bank’s communications will be just as important as the rate rise increment, the FT argues. “It will need to convince the public that it understands its recent errors, to help maintain its influence over rate expectations. The bank may also wish to reassert more forceful language on its determination to bring inflation back down to 2 per cent. It needs to get a grip quickly.” Need to know: UK and Europe economyGermany and France clashed over how strict the EU’s revamped budget rules should be. Brussels wants to overhaul its Stability and Growth Pact to better tailor the rules to individual member states’ economic circumstances.European gas prices have doubled in just 10 trading days, highlighting how the market still remains on the edge despite storage levels at record highs.Turkey’s new economic team faces a huge challenge to fix its $900bn economy after the unorthodox policies of president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan are ditched. Expectations are for a big jump in interest rates next week.Russia said it would seize “naughty western companies” and make it harder for them to exit the country. A carrot-and-stick approach aims to punish western countries that seize Russian assets while rewarding those that play by the Kremlin’s rules. US senators are launching an attempt to allow the seizure and transfer of Russian assets to Ukraine.Need to know: Global economyA delegation of African leaders began a peace mission to Ukraine and Russia. They have sought to display neutrality but have suffered from the war’s impact on global food and fertiliser prices.New Nigerian leader Bola Tinubu has scrapped fuel subsidies, stopped bolstering its currency and suspended the heads of the central bank and anti-corruption agency, moves welcomed by investors in Africa’s largest economy.The IMF said Pakistan’s proposed budget needed more work before it could get a $7bn bailout that many analysts believe is needed to avoid default.Need to know: businessTesco, Britain’s biggest supermarket chain, said there were “encouraging signs” that inflationary pressures were easing.Big Tech companies are in talks with leading media outlets over the use of news content to train AI systems.The hacker gang Clop (Russian for bedbugs) that compromised large UK employers such as British Airways and the BBC has threatened to release sensitive information from international institutions, including US investment firms and European manufacturers, unless it receives “substantial” sums.A new Big Read highlights how just seven tech companies are driving the US stock market rally, with the S&P 500 enjoying its best first-half of the year for two decades, despite worries about the direction of the economy. Some of the biggest tech stocks were hitting all-time highs by the end of the week after investors sensed the Fed’s policy tightening was coming to an end.

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Science round upFT commentator Anjana Ahuja condemns India’s decision to scrap the periodical table from textbooks. The famed graphic is literally elemental to our understanding of the world, she writes, and its removal will dent India’s reputation for science and technology.Experts are waking up to the threat posed by artificial intelligence programmes if they fall into malevolent hands, writes Gillian Tett.New research showed cruise ships emitted four times more harmful sulphuric gases into the atmosphere in Europe than passenger vehicles last year. Although a cap on sulphur content in fuels has helped cut emissions per tonne of fuel, dozens of extra cruise ships have been added to fleets since 2019.Watch the new FT film to learn how hydrogen, the lightest, most abundant element in the universe, could play a crucial role in that fight against emissions. One of the west’s biggest hydrogen investors said the UK was falling badly behind in green hydrogen development. Here’s how green hydrogen could eventually enable carbon-free flying.

Video: Can hydrogen help the world reach net zero?

Something for the weekendTry your hand at the range of FT Weekend and daily cryptic crosswords.Some good newsSynthetic human embryos, built using stem cells, could further our understanding of genetic disorders and causes of miscarriage. More

(Reuters) – U.S. stocks were set to open higher on Friday as signs of easing price pressures and slowing economic growth raised hopes the Federal Reserve could end its monetary tightening campaign soon.The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallied to fresh 14-month highs on Thursday as a slew of economic data pointed to cooling inflation, eclipsing concerns about further interest rate hikes that the Fed forecast on Wednesday.The U.S. central bank signaled borrowing costs could rise by as much as half a percentage point by the end of this year but traders have priced in just one more 25-basis-point rate hike, expected in July, as per CMEGroup’s Fedwatch tool.”The proverbial ‘thread the needle’ outcome engineered by the Fed’s efforts to tame inflation, at the same time not quelling economic growth is the narrative that has been embraced by investors,” said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.”The enthusiasm can be seen by way of the rally, that is fortunately beginning to broaden beyond just the narrow group of AI-related companies.”The main U.S. indexes were on track for a strong weekly showing, with gains in megacap stocks including Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) setting up the tech-heavy Nasdaq for its eighth consecutive week of gains.Microsoft edged 0.6% higher in premarket trading, a day after its shares closed at an all-time high and the software giant notched a record market value of $2.59 trillion.Nvidia rose 1.5% after scaling new peaks on Thursday, as Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) hiked its price target to $500 and named the chipmaker as its top pick among U.S. semiconductor firms.Trading, however, is expected to be volatile on Friday due to the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures and index options contracts, known as triple witching.In economic data, the University of Michigan’s preliminary reading on consumer sentiment, due at 10:00 a.m. ET, is expected to show the index rose to 60 in June from 59.2 in May.At 8:42 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 45 points, or 0.13%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 11 points, or 0.25%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 55 points, or 0.36%.Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) Inc rose 4.9% after the Photoshop maker’s earnings forecast surpassed analyst estimates as efforts to drive up demand with generative artificial intelligence (AI) integrations pay off.Maker of Roomba vacuum cleaners iRobot (NASDAQ:IRBT) Corp jumped 20% after Britain’s competition regulator cleared Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN)’s planned $1.7 billion acquisition of the company.Carnival (NYSE:CCL) Corp gained 1.7% after Citigroup (NYSE:C) raised its price target on the cruise operator, citing higher confidence in the cruise sector. More

The hedge fund, once run by the founder Crispin Odey, has grappled with investor flight after the well known hedge fund manager became the focus of sexual misconduct allegations in media reports last week. The firm suspended trading in the Odey Special Situations and LF Odey Portfolio funds, after investors sought redemptions, letters dated June 15 and on the firm’s website said. Bloomberg first reported the news. A spokesperson for OAM did not immediately reply to a request for comment. More

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Richmond Federal Reserve president Thomas Barkin said Friday he is comfortable with further interest rate increases if coming data does not show that weakening demand for goods and services is feeding through to slower inflation.”I am still looking to be convinced of the plausible story that slowing demand returns inflation relatively quickly” to the 2% target, Barkin said in comments prepared for delivery to the Maryland Government Finance Officer Association. “If coming data doesn’t support that story, I’m comfortable doing more.”The Fed this week held the policy interest rate steady in a range between 5% and 5.25%, but new policymaker projections showed Fed officials feel rate may need to rise at least another half point by the end of the year.Many investors now expect the central bank to resume rate increases at its meeting in July.Barkin did not speak to that.But he did say the focus remained on returning “stubbornly persistent” inflation to the Fed’s 2% target, from a current level more than twice that. Barkin said he recognized that raising rates further “creates the risk of a more significant slowdown.”But backing off too soon created even worse potential problems.”The ’70s provides a clear lesson: If you back off inflation too soon, inflation comes back stronger, requiring the Fed to do even more, with even more damage,” Barkin said. “That’s not a risk I want to take.”Barkin said he did believe that demand in the U.S. is now “softening.”But “think of it as weaker but not yet weak,” Barkin said, adding that he regarded it as an open question whether inflation can fall while the labor market remains “robust” and higher-income consumers “are still spending.” More

ISTANBUL (Reuters) – Turkey’s central bank is expected to raise its policy rate by a huge 1,150 basis points next week, from 8.5% to 20%, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, in a policy U-turn after rate cuts under President Tayyip Erdogan led to a cost-of-living crisis.The central bank slashed its policy rate from 19% in late-2021 to 8.5% as Erdogan, a self-described “enemy” of interest rates, implemented his unorthodox economic policy, prioritising growth, investment and exports.But the rate cuts that came in the face of rising inflation led to a currency crisis, which in turn stoked inflation, sending it to a 24-year high of 85.5% last year. The central bank’s reserves were depleted as it sought to stabilise the lira’s exchange rate by countering soaring forex demand.Facing economic turmoil as he was elected to his third term last month, Erdogan appointed Mehmet Simsek, highly regarded by markets, as finance minister, and Hafize Gaye Erkan, a former Wall Street banker, as central bank governor.The appointments have heightened expectations that Turkey will abandon its unorthodox policies, which led the lira to shed more than 80% of its value since 2018.The median forecast of 15 economists that participated in the Reuters poll for the one-week repo rate at next week’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting was 20%, which would be the highest since mid-2019 and the first hike March 2021.Forecasts ranged widely, from 12.5% to 30%, given that the central bank has not provided any signals about its next steps, including the pace and size of the hikes, since Erkan was appointed last week.Erdogan appeared to say this week that he has given the green light for rate hikes with the caveat that he not changed his views. The president has frequently said high borrowing costs lead to high inflation, contrary to common theory.Authorities are hoping foreign investors will return after years away, but market watchers warn that Erdogan has pivoted to orthodox policies in the past only to change his mind shortly after.However all but one of 12 economists that took part in the poll for the policy rate at year-end expected further hikes with the median standing at 30%, and forecasts ranging between 18% and 35%.The central bank will announce its rate decision at 1100 GMT on Thursday. More

That’s a line pulled directly from a speech given by Ambassador Katherine Tai, the US Trade Representative, yesterday at the National Press Club in Washington DC. I had the pleasure of moderating the fireside chat with her afterwards, which is definitely worth a view. I also interviewed former White House competition adviser Tim Wu and did a panel with Chris Gopal, who is for my money the world’s best supply chain expert. There is a lot to be teased out from Tai’s talk, which I’ve done in my upcoming Monday column. Tai’s message built on National Security adviser Jake Sullivan’s April speech about connecting the dots between US domestic economic policy and US foreign policy. She took it further in terms of trade, noting her desire to put the “US” back in USTR. This means a return to domestic economic needs as the starting point of good trade policy, which as the former USTR Robert Lighthizer’s upcoming book No Trade Is Free lays out, is actually the historic norm for America — with good reason. No country has been able to maintain its position as a world power by giving up on manufacturing, as the US has over the last 20 or 30 years, thanks in part to various trade deals that assumed our economy could survive and thrive on the service sector. Manufacturing is the sector where most innovation comes from and in that sense, it represents the long-term economic capacity of a country. Consumption on the other hand, is more about short-term gains. As I’ve pointed out many times, more cheap stuff has not offset inflation in all the important areas like healthcare, housing and education.Tai made a point of noting that she was spending a lot of time travelling through the US heartland, talking to all sorts of business leaders and public officials about what they want from the trade system. USTRs don’t usually spend a lot of time at home; rather they are abroad, wrangling the latest new trade deal. But as Sullivan made clear in his recent speech, trade qua trade is no longer good enough. We need trade that works for both people and planet. And when it comes to people, the benefits do need to start with the American people first, given that they’re the ones that are voting for the policymakers that implement these deals.This is an important point, and one that Lighthizer really takes up in detail in his book, which lays out what an anomaly the last 20 years have been when it comes to US trade policy. He cites, for example, a speech that Ronald Reagan gave in 1985 in which he said, “Above all else, free trade is by definition fair trade. When domestic markets are closed to the exports of others it is no longer free trade. When governments subsidise their manufacturers and farmers so that they can dump goods in other markets it is no longer free trade. When governments permit counterfeiting and copying of American products it is stealing our future and it is no longer free trade. When governments assist their exporters in ways that violate international laws, then the playing field is no longer level, and there is no longer free trade. When governments subsidise industries for commercial advantage and underwrite costs, placing an unfair burden on competitors, that is not free trade.”Indeed. Lighthizer was brave enough to raise the scrim on the fact that China was doing all of that, which was one of the rare triumphs of the Trump years. Like it or not, he started an important conversation, one that the Biden administration has now taken up. Tai has recently made some strongly worded statements about Chinese economic coercion, and also focused on the importance of reducing chokepoints of economic power wherever they come from — be it Chinese mercantilism or multinational corporate concentration. Neither Lighthizer (in his book) or Tai are arguing for America Alone, or some total reshoring of jobs, which isn’t possible anyway. Rather both seem to be making the point that you need a better balance of production and consumption, both domestically and in fair alliances with allies, to achieve a prosperous society economically and otherwise. As Lighthizer puts it, “free trade is a unicorn — a figment of the Anglo-American imagination. No one really believes in it outside of countries in the Anglo-American world, and no one practices it.” Given the prevalence of industrial strategy and state subsidies in most countries, I think that’s more or less true. As he points out quite rightly in his book, continental Europeans love to talk about free trade, but rarely practise it fully. The wilful blindness to all the contradictions in the global trade system is one reason that the World Trade Organization itself is fundamentally broken. What’s to be done? I think both Lighthizer and more recently Tai have done a great service by fostering an honest conversation about how trade needs to work at home before it can work abroad. US tariffs are at record lows. America’s willingness to give unfettered access to the largest and richest consumer market in the world with very few requirements has led to a global race to the bottom in terms of people and planet. We need to build floors not ceilings. This was a point that Tai made in her talk, which stressed the desire of the US to move beyond a “colonial” model of wealth extraction in which desire for cheap goods and natural resources trump labour rights for environmental impact.Nobody thinks global trade isn’t necessary and good. But the system is in desperate need of tweaking. Tai’s speech really starts to lay out a new paradigm in which access to US markets and investment are contingent on good behaviour for people and planet, as well as supply chain resiliency.Lighthizer makes a strong case in his book that something more akin to the old General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade system could work better for the US than the WTO. He also advocates the use of section 301 provisions to resolve trade disputes at a bilateral level, given that the WTO seems fundamentally unable to enforce its own rulings, even when it can make them. There’s much more to say here and I will be saying it in future columns as well as a review of the Lighthizer book in July. But the point that trade needs to work at home before it can work abroad is a crucial one.Ed, rather than asking you to sound off on what I’ve written, I’d like to ask you a historical question since you are at the moment finishing up a biography of Zbigniew Brzezinski. What do you think he would have to say about where the global trading system is at the moment and how we might fix it? Recommended readingThis personal history in the New Yorker by Jiayang Fan, who emigrated from China with her mother (a former doctor who had to become a housekeeper in the US to make ends meet, and ultimately died a slow and miserable death from ALS) is one of the most haunting and poetic pieces of writing that I’ve read in a long time. This New York Review of Books piece on childhood in the 16th century, is an interesting look at what it was like to be a kid before the invention of helicopter parenting. And in the FT, check out our farewell to one of my all time favourite writers, Cormac McCarthy, as well as the tour de force magazine piece on the odious Crispin Odey.Edward Luce responds Thanks Rana — and I am glad you haven’t totally lost interest in what you recently labelled GMOTP (great men of the past)! There is a lot we can learn from history that is relevant to our future. As another dead man once said, “The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.” That said, I wish I could give you a richer answer on Zbigniew Brzezinski’s view of the global trading system. Alas, like most foreign policy strategists, including Henry Kissinger, George Kennan, Madeleine Albright and so on, Zbig did not engage much with economics. He had a strong philosophical belief in the economic and technological openness of the US system and why that gave it a decisive advantage over the USSR. That proved to be correct. The ignorance of geopolitical minds about economics is matched only by the economics profession’s ignorance about foreign policy. In Lighthizer’s case, I would argue that ignorance stretches to the history of economics. The postwar story is one of declining trade barriers, both tariff and non-tariff, producing greater general prosperity. The further a developing country has been from the Cuba or Venezuela model, the better its people have fared. The fact that there has been no such thing as perfect free trade is a very poor argument for abandoning it. It’s like saying total objectivity is impossible in journalism, or scholarship, so we should just give in to our prejudices. As for Katherine Tai putting the US back into USTR, it has always been there. What has changed is the “T”: I would argue that she is acting as the US Tariff Representative.Your feedbackAnd now a word from our Swampians . . . In response to “What went wrong at CNN?”:“I completely agree that news shouldn’t be done behind a desk if we want to reach wider audiences. While it’s a format that worked before, it’s not one that many people are engaging with now and that’s exactly why we’re doing the news differently at The News Movement. As an example, we’ve been covering the Canadian wildfires in a way that engages young people while still providing them with the facts . . . With important elections on the horizon across both sides of the Atlantic, there’s lots to be done to get quality news to young audiences! What’s encouraging to see however, is that there is an appetite for news from younger audiences. It just looks a little different.” — William Lewis More