Aurelia Butler

Invesitng.com —  Deposits and lending activity at commercial U.S. banks increased for the third-straight week in the week ended May 31, the latest data from the Fed showed, as the recovery from the fallout of the banking turmoil seen in the spring continues. 
Deposits at large U.S. banks rose $46.6 billion to $17.238 trillion from a week earlier, on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Commercial bank lending increased $4.6B to a seasonally adjusted $12.139 trillion during the week. 
Residential lending increased $0.6B, commercial real estate loans climbed $3.7B, while consumer loans were down $2.1B from the prior week. Commercial and industrial loans were up about $0.6B from a week ago on a seasonally adjusted basis. 
The ongoing improvement in lending activity, which has now stretched to a third week, has stoked optimism that stress in the banking sector – from the collapse of several banks including Silicon Valley Bank – will likely be less than feared.   
“We have now learned enough about the banking stress to be fairly confident that it will not deliver a recessionary blow,” Goldman Sachs said in a note.
Lending standards have tightened “only modestly further since the bank failures,” Goldman Sacsh adds, and growth in lending volumes “has declined only moderately so far too.”
The Federal Reserve is closely watching the impact on the economy from the banking turmoil and has suggested that tighter lending standards could help rein in economic growth and inflation, lessening the need for aggressive monetary policy tightening.  
With just days ago until the Fed kicks off its two-day meeting on Tuesday, investors continue to bet that the central bank will keep rates in June, though may resume hikes in July.    More

KARACHI, Pakistan (Reuters) – Pakistan presented its federal budget for the next fiscal year, one of three measures the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will gauge before releasing at least some of the $2.5 billion still pending under a lending programme expiring this month. The cash-strapped country, with reserves to barely meet a month’s worth of imports, is undertaking steps to secure a $1.1 billion loan, part of a $6.5 billion IMF bailout package, which has been delayed since November, with more than 100 days gone since the last staff-level mission to Pakistan, the longest such delay since at least 2008.On Thursday, the resident representative for Pakistan told Reuters that Pakistan needs to restore the proper functioning of the FX market, pass a fiscal year 2024 budget consistent with programme objectives, and secure firm and credible financing commitments to close the $6 billion gap, adding that there was only time for one last IMF board review before the end of the current bailout package. Pakistan is eyeing GDP growth of 3.5%, expecting inflation at 21%, and targeting a fiscal deficit of 6.54% of GDP for the 2023-24 fiscal year, slightly below the current year’s revised estimate of 7%.Experts have mixed reactions on whether the budget will meet IMF requirements and the impact on the economy.COMMENTARYGHIAS KHAN, PRESIDENT & CEO, ENGRO CORP , ONE OF THE LARGEST CONGLOMERATES IN PAKISTAN”Our ongoing economic challenges call for bold action to address our deep-rooted problems. The announced budget 2023-24 falls short of tackling critical issues like expanding the tax net, investing in education and human development, managing the mounting fiscal deficit, and creating an enabling business environment. “Pakistan cannot prosper till we generate higher exports and equitable tax revenues from real estate, agriculture, and retail sectors. The budget has enhanced the tax burden on the already compliant formal sectors, which will limit capital formation and growth-oriented initiatives in the manufacturing sector.”EHSAN MALIK, CEO OF THE PAKISTAN BUSINESS COUNCIL”It’s a budget ‘as usual’ at times ‘unusual’. It fails to take the opportunity of fundamental reforms by taxing the untaxed and under-taxed sectors – wholesale, retail and real estate. Nor is there a mention of steps to harvest data on non filers and NADRA to widen the tax base. Nothing on stemming under-invoicing. The ‘No new Taxes on Industry’ claim is belied by increase in super tax and that too in not a fully progressive way. “Having said that there are a few good measures. The focus on agriculture, especially on seeds and mechanisation is good as is on promoting IT and IT-enabled exports. The reduction in minimum tax on listed companies is a step in the right direction. However the opportunity of encouraging consolidation and widening the shareholder base by removing double taxation of intercorporate taxes was missed. “Business will derive confidence from the limited mention of steps taken to revive the IMF program especially also as there was no mention of how debts would be reprofiled.”What will change? Will more than 3% of tax payers contribute 90% or more to direct taxation? Will retailers and the agri sectors that together contribute 40% contribute more than 2% as a result of the budget? No.”The tax collection targets look unrealistic and the increase in government salaries and pensions will put pressure on the fiscal deficit. A mini budget is inevitable.”SHAHID HABIB, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER OF ARIF HABIB LIMITED”It will be very difficult to achieve revenue targets of 9.2 trillion rupees without taking serious taxation measures on agriculture, retail and wholesale trading, and real estate; and relying only on the industrial sector. “The government should not have allocated a high number on the public sector development programme, and should not have proposed such a steep increase in salaries and pensions for all employment grades.”MUSADAQ ZULQARNAIN, DIRECTOR AT PAKISTAN TEXTILE COUNCIL AND CHAIRMAN AT INTERLOOP HOLDINGS, ONE OF THE LARGEST TEXTILE MANUFACTURERS IN PAKISTAN”The budget appears to be a balancing act. Incentives for (the) agricultural sector are encouraging. Company reserves have not been taxed which is a relief. “Apparently, the scope and extent of super tax has been increased at the same time undocumented Real estate and trade sectors have not been adequately taxed. This is counterproductive in the long run as increasing tax burden on existing tax payers without bringing untaxed sectors into (the) tax net is not going to strengthen the economy. “In addition, the provision of empowering the federal government to impose up to 50% additional tax on so-called unexpected gains during tax year 2023 and five preceding years, is arbitrary and uncalled for when any such income is already being taxed.”On the whole (the) budget appears to be reasonable under the given circumstances.”M ABDUL ALEEM, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER AND SECRETARY GENERAL OF THE OVERSEAS INVESTORS CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY IN PAKISTAN”Based on first assessment of the budgetary tax measures announced today, it appears to be an interim budget with short-term measures for certain sectors but lacking on measures to stabilize the economy. However, positive measures for (the) IT and agriculture sector as well as for promotion of SMEs are appreciated. “There is absence of measures to incentivize investment in manufacturing and other job-creating sectors, while there are no special measures to attract large foreign investment in the country.”The substantial increase in salaries and pension of government employees, partially justified, will have snowball effect in the economy and should have been accompanied by measures to improve productivity and reduction in (the) huge cost of governance in Pakistan. “Overall, there is need for us to go through the details of the budgetary measures before giving any final comments as one needs to understand solid measures planned by the government to justify the projected economic growth.”IRFAN IQBAL SHEIKH, PRESIDENT FEDERATION OF PAKISTAN CHAMBERS OF COMMERCE & INDUSTRY”The federal budget presents an unrealistic picture of the economy; and, therefore, the budgetary targets set in the budget documents are unrealistic as well. Additionally, the business community will be looking for any hidden taxes in budget.”The revenue target of PKR 9,200 billion revenue not only looks difficult; but, it can have far-reaching negative consequences. “Last year’s target was PKR 7,500 billion; which is still under failing efforts to be achieved. Last year, the economic growth rate was close to 6%; while this year the economic growth rate has dropped a lot to only 0.29%. So, how can more taxes be imposed on very little economic growth performance?”MUSTAFA PASHA, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER AT LAKSON INVESTMENTS”The budget is unlikely to improve chances of a SLA in June. IMF will likely ask for additional revenue measures of 500-800 billion. Expect a mini budget when a new program is being negotiated.”SHAHBAZ ASHRAF, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER AT FRIM VENTURES“It is surely not a budget that the IMF would approve of. There is no control on fiscal expenditures, while they’ve announced a dollar amnesty which the IMF doesn’t like.”It is a plain-vanilla budget with no path to structural reforms. There are no new sectors being taxed. There’s been a maximum increase in pension and government employees’ salaries. 50% or more will go towards interest payment, which is the same old story we’ve seen over the years.”The increase in super taxes and re-imposition of taxes on bonus tax will not be liked by capital market investors”Lastly, withholding tax on cash withdrawals is negative for improving financial inclusion. This will increase currency in circulation and grow the cash economy, and also create more upside pressure on inflationary readings.”FAHAD RAUF, HEAD OF RESEARCH AT ISMAIL IQBAL SECURITIES”So far, I don’t see any major deviations from the IMF path. This does not seem like an election budget full of populist action other than increasing salaries for government employees. However, will need to see the budget statistics for a test of logic.”GOHAR EJAZ, PATRON IN CHIEF, ALL PAKISTAN TEXTILE MILLS ASSOCIATION “The budget is balance given the current scenario as all IMF conditions being met to revive the programme, especially keeping interest rates positive.”The regional energy price budget, which has built in cross subsidies, general collection and distribution losses is something the export industry cannot sustain.” More

The Wall Street bank, in an overhaul to a number of its forecasts for Turkey, said stabilising the economy “will require a large, and we think discontinuous, adjustment to the exchange rate.”While guidance was for the monetary policy framework was still missing at this stage, the bank noted, a “fully orthodox policy-maker” would allow the exchange rate to adjust upfront and would raise the repo rate to a level where it anchored interest rates in the economy.”In our view, this suggests that an orthodox policy-maker would raise rates to 40%, the current level of deposit rates,” Clemens Grafe said in a note to clients.Grafe added that once the exchange rate and inflation expectations stabilised, rates could be lowered quickly, possibly to 25% by end-year. Goldman Sachs also cut Turkey’s GDP forecast to 2.3% year-on-year in 2023, from previously 2.9%. More

Exactly a month ago I was married in St Andrew’s Church, Didling, in front of a vicar, family and friends. It was divine. As a Hitchens-grade atheist, however, I had to stifle the odd hypocritical pang.Thankfully, banking taught me how. Inconsistency and self-delusion were integral to the job. Bosses would lie to my face and we both knew it. Dots weren’t joined and nothing was taken at face value. Everyone worked on regardless.Hypocrisy is ubiquitous, of course. But whereas in politics it is said voters don’t mind lies (it’s the saying one thing and doing another that appals), in business we can seemingly cope with the dissonance required of hypocrisy.How else to explain Jay Monahan’s straight face on Tuesday when announcing that the PGA Tour he runs is now in bed with Saudi Arabia? Only last June, when asked about the kingdom’s alleged connections to 9/11, he replied. “I have two families that are close to me that lost loved ones.”Likewise, no one at the CBI — whose website calls for a “dynamic, competitive” UK — appeared embarrassed this week when crying foul at the announcement of a new rival lobby group.Other recent examples abound. Those US start-ups who brag of breaking things but demanded their deposits were repaid by taxpayers when Silicon Valley Bank, er, broke. Or global tech firms calling employees “family” for decades — and then firing almost a quarter of a million of them this year.The United Arab Emirates — a third of whose GDP comes from oil and gas — is hosting COP28 in November. And few companies in free-market America are refusing any of President Joe Biden’s trillion-plus dollars of clean energy handouts.What explains our toleration of hypocrisy in business and finance? Why was Boris Johnson forced to resign as UK prime minister after being accused of throwing parties during lockdown, yet the boss of Philip Morris International can claim without blushing that the tobacco maker is almost an ESG stock?The major reason is money. Trading and modern economies are predicated on hypocrisy. Middlemen convince buyers and sellers they both have the better deal. Bankers earn a fortune telling corporates they are listing at a high price and investors they are getting a bargain.Hypocrisy also drives the conflict between short and long-run goals. For example, it is common for bosses to wax on about the future while loading up a company with debt and awarding themselves huge dividends.Likewise ESG assets have boomed over the past decade, supposedly as more investors think long-term. But following 18 months of underperformance, ESG funds in the UK are now seeing outflows for the first time ever (not including one month during the Covid meltdown).Those running the money are no less hypocritical A recent paper by the Swiss Finance Institute compared the ESG scores of US mutual funds with how much of a manager’s own money was invested in the fund. More skin in the game equalled less ESG exposure.A second explanation for our tolerance of hypocrisy is that companies are good at fooling everyone. Billions are spent on promoting their worthiness, irrespective of harm caused by the core business. In Shell’s annual report, the word “renewable” appears five times more than “hydrocarbon”.Another corporate ploy is the widespread use of euphemisms to avoid being labelled a hypocrite — the subject of a paper by Joakim Kromann and Anders la Cour. It sounds far nicer to be “bridging East and West” than “winning contracts in Beijing”. Selling arms is “defence”. And don’t forget the diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, the net zero promises by 2050 or the philanthropy. According to Giving USA data, American firms give $21bn annually to charitable causes. If such reputation-washing didn’t work, Coca-Cola wouldn’t support youth sport (distracting us from the obesity pandemic) nor would oil major BP have chosen a lovely green sunflower as its logo.Ultimately though, maybe we don’t care too much if businesses deal with, say, Saudi Arabia because we are all sometimes hypocritical in similar ways. Hating our employer but loving the pay. Criticising bosses behind their backs. Philosophers link hypocrisy to the ethics of blame. A fear of being called a hypocrite keeps our urge to blame others in check. This is healthy. But it also lets some wrongdoing business off the [email protected] More