Aurelia Butler

BENGALURU (Reuters) – Australia’s central bank will keep key interest rate unchanged at 3.85% on Tuesday despite inflation staying well above the target range, according to a Reuters poll of economists who were divided on when and where rates would peak this year.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised rates last month after pausing in April, confounding financial markets and a majority of economists who were expecting the central bank to hold.So far there has been little evidence inflation will fall to the RBA’s target range of between 2% and 3% anytime soon and RBA Governor Philip Lowe said in a recent appearance before lawmakers “we’ve got work to do there.”But while expectations for future rate hikes were very much alive, a strong three-quarters majority of economists, or 22 of 30, forecast the RBA to hold its official cash rate at 3.85% on June 6.All major local banks – ANZ, CBA, NAB and Westpac – expect a pause on Tuesday.The remaining eight in the poll taken between May 29 and June 1 poll expected a 25 basis point hike. Interest rate futures were pricing in a roughly one-in-three chance of a rate hike then.TARGET RANGE”We expect a pause in June because the RBA has slowed down the cadence of rate hikes. And having gone in May after pausing in April, we are not sure the data makes the case for them to go as soon as June, even as we do still expect (one) more hike,” said Taylor Nugent, economist at NAB.”The level of interest rates is still not sufficiently restrictive for the RBA to be comfortable inflation will get back to target in time,” Nugent added. “We think the RBA will move again by August.”Inflation has stayed at or above the central bank’s upper target range since June 2021. The latest monthly data showed annual price rises in April accelerated to 6.8% from 6.3% in March. On a quarterly basis, inflation was last reported at 7.0%, with the next set of data due in July. While many say rates will still need to rise, there was no clear consensus about where the cash rate would be by the end of the third quarter, a split that has persisted from a poll conducted last month. Some analysts have referred to a stop-start approach from the central bank in recent months as leading to confusion over how much higher rates will need to go, if at all. More than half of respondents, or 18 of 28, expected rates to reach 4.10% or higher by end-September, including four who saw rates at 4.35%. The remaining 10 expected rates to stay at 3.85%. “If the inflation data comes in stronger than the RBA’s forecasts, then they will likely deliver on that hiking bias. So there’s a clear risk over the next two or three meetings that they hike (the) cash rate,” said Gareth Aird, head of Australian Economics at CBA.Meanwhile, the housing market outlook has improved significantly, with home prices expected to on average stagnate this year, compared with a near double-digit fall predicted three months ago.(Other stories from the Reuters global long-term economic outlook polls package can be found on this link.) More

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – Hackers have stolen data from the systems of a number of users of the popular file transfer tool MOVEit Transfer, U.S. security researchers said on Thursday, one day after the maker of the software disclosed that a security flaw had been discovered.Software maker Progress Software (NASDAQ:PRGS), after disclosing the vulnerability on Wednesday, said it could lead to potential unauthorized access into users’ systems.The managed file transfer software made by Burlington, Massachusetts-based Progress allows organizations to securely transfer files and data between business partners and customers, and according to the company is used by thousands of organizations.Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL)’s Mandiant consulting and cybersecurity firm Rapid7 (NASDAQ:RPD) disclosed on Thursday that they had found a number of cases in which the flaw had been exploited to steal user data.It wasn’t immediately clear how many users were impacted, but Mandiant Consulting said it was investigating “several” intrusions linked to the bug.It was not known when the flaw was discovered by hackers. A Progress Software spokeswoman didn’t immediately respond to a request for further comment.”Mass exploitation and broad data theft has occurred over the past few days,” Charles Carmakal, chief technology officer of Mandiant Consulting, said in a statement.Such “zero-day,” or previously unknown, vulnerabilities in managed file transfer solutions have led to data theft, leaks, extortion and victim shaming in the past, according to Mandiant.”Although Mandiant does not yet know the motivation of the threat actor, organizations should prepare for potential extortion and publication of the stolen data,” Carmakal added. Rapid7 said it had noticed an uptick in cases of compromise linked to the flaw since it was disclosed. Progress, in a statement on Wednesday, outlined steps users at risk can take to mitigate the impact of the security vulnerability. More

(Reuters) – Lululemon Athletica (NASDAQ:LULU) Inc raised its annual sales and profit forecasts on Thursday as wealthy Americans snap up its pricey activewear even though inflation hounds wider retail spending, sending the company’s shares up 13% after hours. A strong rebound in China, easing air freight costs and tighter inventory control also helped first-quarter results surpass estimates at the Vancouver, Canada-based company. The pandemic-era appetite for comfortable clothing and activewear has turned into a habit for most Americans. That, along with a higher-income customer base, has been a boon for companies such as Lululemon and Nordstrom Inc (NYSE:JWN).”We’ve seen no change in our (customer) behavior in terms of frequency of purchase or engagement,” Lululemon CEO Calvin McDonald said on a post-earnings call. Transactions increased from both existing and new customers, while traffic was also robust. Lululemon’s crowd-favorite Dance Studio pants and new silhouettes such as flared and wide-leg leggings were also in vogue, along with accessories such as backpacks and duffle bags, McDonald added. “I think they surprised everybody … There’s not many companies in retail that have had this solid track record of very strong growth in comps every quarter,” said M Science analyst Matthew Jacob.Lululemon’s inventories at quarter-end were up 24%, a smaller increase than the company had estimated in March. It expects growth of about 20% at the end of the current quarter. The easing of China’s strict COVID-19 curbs bolstered revenues from the region by 79%, while North America sales jumped 17%. That drove net revenue up 24% to $2 billion in the quarter, beating estimates of $1.93 billion, according to Refinitiv IBES.Lululemon now expects full-year 2023 revenue between $9.44 billion and $9.51 billion, compared with $9.30 billion to $9.41 billion projected earlier.It forecast annual profit between $11.74 and $11.94 per share, up from $11.50 to $11.72 earlier. More

The Republican-controlled House of Representatives passed the bill on Wednesday evening in a bipartisan 314-117 vote. Here’s a summary of the deal:A CAP ON DISCRETIONARY SPENDINGThe deal would suspend the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling until Jan. 1, 2025, allowing the U.S. government to pay its bills.In exchange, non-defense discretionary spending would be “roughly flat” at current year levels in 2024, “when factoring in agreed upon appropriations adjustments,” according to White House officials.They estimated that total non-defense discretionary spending excluding benefits for veterans would total $637 billion for the 2024 fiscal year, down marginally from $638 billion the year before. That total would also increase by 1% in 2025.A BREATHER FOR THE 2024 ELECTIONThe debt limit extension lasts past 2024, meaning Congress would not need to address the deeply polarizing issue again until after the November 2024 presidential election.Still, tough conversations about how to allocate money under the new spending caps will need to take place in Congress this year.INCREASED DEFENSE SPENDINGThe deal would boost total defense spending to $886 billion, in line with Biden’s 2024 budget spending proposal.That is about a 3% increase from the $858 billion allocated in the current budget for the Pentagon and other defense-related programs in other agencies.MOVING SPECIAL IRS FUNDINGBiden and Democrats secured $80 billion for a decade in new funding to help the Internal Revenue Service enforce the tax code for wealthy Americans in last year’s Inflation Reduction Act, a move the administration said would yield $200 billion in additional revenue over the next 10 years.The IRS earmarked the money for hiring thousands of new agents, and the extra tax revenue they generated was expected to offset a slew of climate-friendly tax credits.The new legislation and subsequent appropriations would shift $10 billion in each of calendar years 2024 and 2025 in funding away the Internal Revenue Service. But administration officials believe the IRS can make do in the near term since it was funded over a 10-year period. COVID CLAWBACKBiden and McCarthy agreed to claw back much of the unused COVID relief funds as part of the budget deal. The estimated amount of unused funds is between $50 billion and $70 billion.White House officials said some funds would be retained, including items related to vaccine funding, housing assistance and support for Native Americans.WORK REQUIREMENTSBiden and McCarthy battled fiercely over imposing stricter work requirements on low-income Americans for being eligible for food and healthcare programs.No changes were made to Medicaid in the deal, but the agreement would impose new work requirements on some low-income people who receive food assistance under the program known as SNAP up to age 54, instead of up to age 50. STUDENT LOANS The new bill would require the Biden administration to follow through with a plan to end the current pause on student loan repayments by late August.But it did not strike down Biden’s plan to forgive $430 billion in student debt, which the Supreme Court is currently reviewing.’PAYGO’Republicans secured a budgeting mechanism known as “PAYGO,” which is short for pay-as-you-go, that says new government agency actions affecting revenues and spending should be offset by savings.But the law would give Biden’s budget director the opportunity to issue waivers to that requirement and it would also limit judicial review of the decisions.ENERGY PERMITTINGBiden and McCarthy agreed to tweak rules to make it easier for pipeline projects – including fossil-fuel based ones – to gain permit approval, but did not make any changes to help solar and wind projects get access to the nation’s power grid. The legislation does include swifter approval of a project backed by U.S. Senator Joe Manchin. The long-delayed $6.6 billion Mountain Valley natural gas pipeline would get streamlined approval under the legislation. More