Aurelia Butler

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -With Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris locked in a dead heat in the race for the White House, political forecasters will be eyeing a clutch of counties across the country for clues on who has the edge once polls start to close on Tuesday evening.Here is a list of bellwether counties Reuters compiled, based on research by UBS, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn), Barclays (LON:BARC), Beacon Policy Advisors in Washington and Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball (NYSE:BALL) with the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. The list, which is not exhaustive, includes the most pivotal counties in the seven battleground “swing” states that will determine the winner. ARIZONAArizona’s Maricopa County, home to 4.5 million people — over half of the state’s population — is seen as one of the most pivotal battlegrounds across the United States, both for the presidency and the Senate.Biden in 2020 was the first Democrat to win the county since President Harry Truman in 1948, according to Beacon, and a strong performance by Harris would bode extremely well for her in the swing state.Polls there close at 9 p.m. ET (0200 GMT), but the state does not begin reporting results until roughly 10 p.m.   Election officials have warned it could take up to 13 days to tabulate all the ballots in Maricopa, according to local media reports. In 2020, the Associated Press and Fox News called the state for Biden hours after polls closed, but other outlets waited nine days to declare him the winner.FLORIDAWith Trump holding a near double-digit lead over Harris in Florida polls, the Sunshine State is not a battleground. But politicos will be watching Miami-Dade County, the state’s most populous, which is also expected to report results relatively early after polls close there at 7 p.m. ET. The county was solidly Democratic from the 2008 election cycle through to 2016, when Hillary Clinton won it by 30 points, but by 2020 Biden only had a seven-point edge.As such, it’s seen as a critical county for Harris. Further erosion of support for the vice president in the Miami area, particularly among Hispanic voters, could spell broader trouble for her, according to Beacon. Goldman Sachs analysts noted that the U.S. dollar reacted strongly to that weaker Democratic Miami-Dade result in 2020, as investors raised their bets on a potential Trump win.GEORGIAGeorgia’s DeKalb, Fulton and Gwinnett counties are also seen as bellwethers for Democrats’ performance in the state. Biden built strong margins in the urban counties, helping him narrowly win the swing state in 2020. Analysts also point to nearby Cobb County, where Democrats have been gaining votes over the last two presidential elections and which may indicate how well Harris is performing with suburban voters, a key voting bloc. Barclays also flagged Fayette County, south of Atlanta, as a county that has trended toward Democrats in the last two elections.Polls close in Georgia at 7 p.m. ET but early-vote counting starts at 7 a.m. ET, meaning the state could post results faster than some other battlegrounds. MICHIGANSaginaw County has backed the candidate who went on to win the state in every presidential race since 2008, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Biden narrowly won the state in 2020.UBS and Morgan Stanley also flagged Wayne County, which includes most of the Detroit metro area, as another critical Michigan county. Biden won Wayne by a roughly 2-1 margin in 2020, but if Trump improves his margins there it could bode well for the former president in the swing state. Most polls in Michigan close at 8 p.m. ET, and the state has adopted policies since the 2020 election that should speed up vote counting. NEVADAIn Nevada, which was won by Biden by less than 3 percentage points in 2020, Clark County is the heavyweight with more than half the state’s population, including the Las Vegas area. For Trump to win Nevada, he has to minimize Democratic votes in the county. Washoe County, home to Reno and Nevada’s second most populous county, is also one to watch in the swing state, said analysts. Republicans are hoping to eat into Democratic margins there as well. Nevada polls close at 10 p.m. ET, although much of the state is expected to vote by mail, which could delay some results. NORTH CAROLINADemocrats have not won a presidential race in North Carolina since President Barack Obama in 2008, but close polling has made it a swing state in 2024. Wake and Mecklenburg counties, which host North Carolina’s biggest cities and have become Democratic strongholds, are the ones to watch, said Beacon analysts. Harris would have to run up large margins there to win back the state.Sabato’s Crystal Ball also flagged suburban Cabarrus County, which neighbors Charlotte, as another county to keep an eye on. Trump comfortably won Cabarrus in 2016, but his margin slipped by 10 percentage points in 2020, the biggest swing away from him in the state. Nash County and New Hanover County are also two counties that flipped from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020, according to Barclays.Polls in North Carolina close at 7:30 p.m. ET, and state officials can begin tabulating early votes at 5 p.m. ET.PENNSYLVANIAPennsylvania ultimately handed Biden the presidency four days after Election Day in 2020, and is widely seen as a critical state for both candidates in 2024. UBS analysts say a good bellwether for which way the state will go is Erie County, a working-class area that Trump won in 2016 and Biden narrowly took in 2020. Northampton County similarly flipped to Biden in 2020, and Barclays said if Trump can win Bucks County — one he narrowly lost to Biden in 2020 — it could put him on track to win the key swing state.Analysts at Sabato’s Crystal Ball also flagged Lackawanna County, home to Scranton, Biden’s birthplace. Lackawanna is another working-class county, but in contrast to Erie it has trended Republican in recent years. A strong turnout for Trump there could suggest a robust performance statewide. Polls close in Pennsylvania at 8 p.m. ET, and state officials cannot begin processing early ballots until 7 a.m. ET, which could slow results — several other swing states allow for ballot processing weeks before Election Day. WISCONSIN In 2020, Biden won over 75% of the vote in Wisconsin’s Dane County, and Harris would likewise have to lock in a large block of support there to take the state. Waukesha County, once a Republican stronghold that has drifted towards Democrats in recent elections, is another on analysts’ watchlist. Sauk and Door counties are another two swing state counties that flipped from Trump to Biden that will be on analysts’ radar as well.Polls in Wisconsin close at 9 p.m. ET, although analysts caution results could be slow as early ballots are processed on Election Day, and votes from Milwaukee sometimes are not reported until early the following morning. More

The BoC slashed its key policy rate by 50 basis points to 3.75% last month, its fourth cut in a row and the first larger-than-usual move in more than four years, after declaring an almost victory over inflation.The members of the rate-setting committee, however, discussed the merits of a 25 basis point cut but saw a strong consensus among them for the larger step, the summary of deliberations said. “Governing Council members wanted to convey that a larger step was appropriate given the economic data seen since July,” it said.There was concern among the members that many would construe the bigger rate cut as a sign of economic trouble, leading to expectations of further moves of this size or to assumptions that the policy interest rate would need to become very accommodative in the future.”Members felt that a larger step was appropriate given the ongoing softness in the labor market and the need for stronger economic growth to absorb excess supply,” it said. Inflation in Canada eased to 1.6% in September, falling below the bank’s mid-point of the 1% to 3% control range as over a 23-year high interest rate shrunk consumer prices. But it has also throttled growth with the GDP stalling in August and expectations are that it would miss the BoC’s revised 1.5% target in the third quarter.The central bank and economists feel the latest government’s efforts to curtail population growth would soften the GDP and consumption in the coming quarters. “The slowing rate of population growth would act as a brake on total consumption growth,” the minutes said, adding it could slow in the near term even though reductions in interest rates would ultimately support stronger growth in consumption. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government announced measures last month which could lead to a population decline of 0.2% in both 2025 and 2026 before returning to a marginal growth in 2027.The six-member committee also discussed the risk that lower interest rates, pent-up demand, and new rules for mortgage qualification could increase demand for housing and boost housing prices more than expected. By Promit Mukherjee, editing by Dale Smith(promit.mukherjee@thomsonreuters.com) More

MADRID (Reuters) -Damages to businesses in towns hit by floods in eastern Spain could rise to over 10 billion euros, with banks loan exposure to the area worth alone around 20 billion euros ($21.82 billion), representatives for local firms and a Bank of Spain official said on Tuesday.On Tuesday, the government earmarked around 10.6 billion euros to help victims of some of Europe’s worst flooding in decades. At least 217 people died and more are still unaccounted for.Spanish banks’ loans to areas worst hit by floods mainly in Valencia region would rise to around 13 billion euros to households and 7 billion euros to companies, said Angel Estrada, the central bank’s head of financial stability.In total, the central bank identified 23,000 companies with outstanding loans and 472,000 loan holders in those regions.Of those 150,000 were mortgage contracts on which the government and banks agreed to offer loan moratoriums. Clients will be spared from paying monthly instalments for the first three months and just pay interests for an additional nine months on their mortgages.Estrada said it was important to make sure that those moratoriums would not lead to reclassification of credits that might trigger higher provisions.Jose Vicente Morata, Chairman of Commerce for Valencia region, said that the damage to businesses in the worst affected area of this region would provisionally rise “well over” 10 billion euros.Estrada said it was still too early to assess the precise economic impact of the floods though he acknowledged that there had been a more “significant destruction of capital” than during the COVID-19 pandemic.He said the banking sector would be “able to absorb” any impact, though they had laid bare that climate risks were materialising faster than expected and banks should now focus on measuring accelerating physical risks as well as addressing the transition risks of shifting to a lower carbon economy.Mirenchu del Valle, chairman of Spain’s UNESPA insurance association, said the Valencia floods would represent Spain’s “most significant damages claim for a climate event”, without putting a potential figure on it. A spokesperson for the Economy Ministry, which oversees the insurance sector, declined to provide a figure for the claims so far.So far, the most costly economic event by floods took place in Bilbao in 1983, when claims rose to more than 821 million euros and 1.08bln included associated damage for high winds, according to data from the Spanish insurance consortium.($1 = 0.9175 euros) More