Aurelia Butler

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s gross domestic product likely gathered pace in the first quarter, data is expected to show on Tuesday, as the end of strict COVID curbs lifted the world’s second-largest economy out of a crippling pandemic slump, although some headwinds persist.GDP is tipped to have risen 4.0% in January-March from a year earlier, a Reuters poll showed, quickening from 2.9% in the fourth quarter.Beijing has pledged to step up support for the economy as it emerges from one of its worst performances in nearly half a century last year due to COVID curbs.Investors are closely watching first quarter data for clues on the strength of the recovery after Beijing lifted COVID curbs in December and eased a three-year crackdown on tech firms and property.Recent data shows the recovery remains uneven, with consumption, services and infrastructure spending perking up but slowing inflation and surging bank savings raising doubts about demand.On a quarterly basis, GDP is forecast to have grown 2.2% in the first quarter, having stalled in the previous quarter.China’s central bank said on Friday it will maintain ample liquidity, stabilise growth and jobs and focus on expanding demand.On Monday, the central bank extended liquidity support to banks through its medium-term lending facility but kept the rate on such loans unchanged, an indication authorities are not overly concerned about the immediate growth outlook.”This is an important signal that the first quarter GDP report due on Tuesday will not be too soft. But we do not expect it to be particularly strong either,” Iris Pang, chief Greater China economist at ING, said in a note.Exports unexpectedly surged in March, data showed last week, but analysts cautioned the improvement partly reflects suppliers catching up with unfulfilled orders after COVID disruptions.UNEVEN RECOVERYAnalysts polled by Reuters expect China’s growth in 2023 to speed up to 5.4%, from 3.0% last year.The government has set a modest target for economic growth of around 5% for this year, after badly missing the 2022 goal.The central bank cut lenders’ reserve requirements for the first time this year in March and the government has unveiled more fiscal stimulus.GDP and activity data is due on Tuesday at 0200 GMT. Separate data on March activity is expected to show retail sales growth hitting a near three-year high and factory output also speeding up.”The current market concerns about deflation largely reflect concerns about the strength and sustainability of the economic recovery,” Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, said in a research note.”After the optimisation of epidemic prevention and control, the production side has basically returned to the pre-epidemic level, but the demand side momentum is still weak.”($1 = 6.8761 Chinese yuan) More

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.Investors’ focus on Tuesday rests squarely on China: From an economic and market perspective, eyes are on a raft of data including first-quarter GDP; while the latest twist in souring U.S.-Sino relations will do little to ease geopolitical concerns.U.S. law enforcement officials on Monday arrested two New York residents for allegedly operating a Chinese “secret police station” in Manhattan’s Chinatown, part of a crackdown on Beijing’s alleged targeting of U.S.-based dissidents.Also on Monday, U.S. prosecutors unveiled charges against 34 Chinese officials for allegedly operating a “troll farm” and harassing dissidents online, including by disrupting their meetings on U.S. technology platforms.This comes amid growing tension between the world’s two superpowers, most recently over Taiwan. A U.S. warship sailed through the Taiwan Strait on Sunday, just days after China ended its latest war games around the island.Investors are reacting with their feet. Big global money managers dumped Chinese equities in recent days, while adding U.S. energy shares to portfolios at a near-record pace, according to a Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) report. GRAPHIC: China GDP growth vs interest rates https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/mopakyrmmpa/ChinaGDPRates.jpg If it were solely down to the economic numbers coming out of China, investors might be reacting differently. By many measures, the country’s re-opening from nearly three years of Covid lockdown has gone better than expected – China’s economic surprises index last week hit a 17-year high.Figures on Tuesday are expected to show gross domestic product expanding 4.0% from a year ago and rising 2.9% from the October-December period.The annual readings of growth in urban investment, industrial output and retail sales for March are all seen rising strongly too, especially retail sales – economists expect a 7.4% rise, more than double February’s 3.5% increase.Indonesia’s central bank, meanwhile, is widely expected to leave its key interest rate unchanged at 5.75% for a third consecutive meeting, and for the rest of 2023.Although inflation has been cooling since September, March’s reading of 4.97% was still above Bank Indonesia’s target range of 2%-4%. Policymakers are confident, however, that previous tightening will get it back to target later this year.Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:- Chinese ‘data dump’- Indonesia central bank policy decision- U.S. Q1 earnings season picks up pace (By Jamie McGeever) More

Shares of trucking operator fell 2.43% to $172.36 in extended trading.Logistics firms are struggling with excess delivery capacity as demand from e-commerce companies declines from pandemic highs. Volumes at J.B. Hunt’s intermodal business fell 5%. The U.S. trucking companies have also been forced to pay higher wages for drivers as they deal with a shortage in the industry. Major players in the global transportation industry, which was ravaged by supply chain disruptions and port logjams last year, have begun to pursue high-margin customers to help their businesses stay afloat in a rapidly changing economy. Delivery giants such as FedEx (NYSE:FDX) and United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS) have instituted cost control measures to better equip themselves in an unpredictable economy. Lowell, Arkansas-based J.B. Hunt managed to cut its operating expenses by roughly 6% to $2.95 billion in the first quarter.The company reported a profit of $1.89 per share for the quarter through March, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $2 per share, as per Refinitiv data.Its revenue also declined 7.4% to $3.23 billion, short of analysts’ average estimate of $3.40 billion. More