Aurelia Butler

The writer is president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, and an adviser to Allianz and GramercyLet’s start with the good news. The flashing red light resulting from a speed-of-light run on the US banking system, or what economists broadly refer to as financial contagion, is behind us. Yet it is too early for policymakers to declare mission accomplished. Instead, red has become a flashing yellow due to the slower-moving economic contagion whose main transmission channel, that of curtailed credit extension to the economy, increases the risk not just of recession but also of stagflation. Poor risk management and inadequate business diversification were at the root of the bank failures. They were exposed for all to see by two factors: first, a mishandled interest rate cycle that saw the US Federal Reserve start raising rates way too late and then be forced into a highly concentrated set of hikes; and second, as remarked to Congress by vice-chair Michael Barr in an unusual episode of frankness and humility from the current Fed, lapses in supervision and regulation. The risk of a generalised deposit flight from similar — regional and community — banks was material, especially as, immediately following three bank failures (Silicon Valley Bank, Signature and Silvergate), a fourth (First Republic) found itself on the ropes. The combination of unlimited deposit insurance for failed banks and a partial bailing in of large banks to help First Republic helped stop the deposit panic. Yet it is shock abated but not eliminated.Smaller banks have suffered significant outflows of deposits to their largest peers — which depositors deem too big to fail — money market funds and, to a much less extent, the crypto space. They are unlikely to be fully reversed any time soon. Instead, they will force an adjustment by institutions that are big providers of loans to small- and medium-sized businesses, as well as mortgages. As these banking activities are unlikely to be undertaken at any scale by the beneficiaries of deposit outflows, system-wide credit will contract. This is not the only contractionary impulse on the economy due to the banking tremors. Regulation is likely to increase, and so is supervision, particularly on the part of a Fed that has been caught making yet another policy error and that can ill-afford any more. There are also three other considerations that will make the banking system as a whole more cautious. First, the bank failures have alerted investors to overall losses on the system’s “hold-to-maturity” portfolios that nominally amount to more than a quarter of the capital. If forced to realise such a loss through significant deposit outflows, the banking system itself would end up with a pressing capital hole. This comes at a time when other assets, such as commercial real estate, are already under some pressure. Second, some banking models are now deemed a lot more fragile. In stark contrast to the 2008 global financial crisis, this applies to institutions that run more of a “narrow” banking model that has little, if any, investment banking component. Finally, banks’ ability to pass on higher borrowing costs and larger fees for deposit insurance will be limited by the greater availability of alternative interest-paying products. All this leads to the uncomfortable finding that we are on the cusp of a credit contraction that will play out over the next several quarters, probably reaching its apex towards the end of this year or the beginning of next year. It is a phenomenon that, unlike financial contagion, is not easily countered by policies. The use of fiscal policy is constrained by political divisions and the concern that the tool was overused during and in the aftermath of the pandemic. Monetary policy needs to remain focused on curtailing inflation. Indeed, while the markets are pricing in both a cut in interest rates as early as June and an end-year level that is a whole percentage point below forward policy guidance, recent Fed commentary suggests that policymakers recognise this could be counterproductive as it would enable high inflation to persist. The recent Opec+ decision to cut output adds to this stagflation risk. Success in dealing with the immediate threat of bank runs, as welcome as this is, has not eliminated the risk that the US banking tremors pose for the economy as a whole. Rather than bet on early rate cuts, markets should be encouraging the Fed to complete its inflation-reduction task before trying to offset a credit contraction that will only play out over a number of quarters. Failing that, we will be dealing with a higher probability of the even trickier challenge of stagflation.  More

NEW DELHI/LONDON (Reuters) -Global fuel suppliers are turning to longer and costlier routes that produce more carbon emissions to move their diesel and other products as Western restrictions on Russian cargoes have reshuffled global energy shipping patterns.As a result of the European Union ban on Russian fuel that started on Feb. 5, tankers carrying clean oil products such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and naphtha are travelling between 16 and 18 days to bring Russian supplies to Brazil or U.S. cargoes to Europe, according to two shipping sources.That is up from the four to six days a ship used to travel from Russia to Europe, said the two sources, a broker at a major shipbroking firm and a charterer involved in the Russian trade of naphtha, which is used to make plastics and petrochemicals.The ban comes on top of a halt late last year on Russian crude sales into the bloc as well as Western price caps. Since the start of the ban, the Clean Tanker Index published by the Baltic Exchange, which measures average freight rates for shipping fuels like gasoline and diesel on some of the most common global routes, has more than doubled.The redrawing of the shipping map underscores the knock-on effects of Western efforts to punish Russia over its invasion of Ukraine last year, adding to fuel supply insecurity and pushing up prices even as policymakers worry about inflation and the risk of a global economic downturn.”Not only are voyages much longer, but vessel behaviour has also changed, keeping vessels from operating in other CPP (clean petroleum product) markets,” Dylan Simpson, freight analyst at oil analytics firm Vortexa, wrote in a March 31 note.Russian cargoes of fuel are heading to far-flung buyers in Brazil, Turkey, Nigeria, and Morocco as Moscow compensates for the lost European business, while Europe is importing more fuels such as diesel from Asia and the Middle East, according to shipping data from Refinitiv and Kpler.Asian cargoes, in turn, are being displaced by Russian fuels in Africa and the eastern Mediterranean, and redirected to the blending hub of Singapore for temporary storage, two northeast Asian refinery sources said.European importers whose naphtha cargoes travelled from Russian ports to Antwerp in four days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine now must wait 18 days for alternative supplies from the United States, the shipbroking source said. The U.S. is also emerging as a top supplier of heavy naphtha to Europe amid the EU ban, while the Group of Seven Nations, EU and Australia have capped Russian naphtha prices at $45 a barrel and diesel and gasoline at $100 a barrel for trades that use Western ships and insurance. Meanwhile, Brazil, traditionally a U.S. naphtha importer, is boosting purchases from Russia at more attractive prices.    However, the journey from Russia to Brazil can take 18 days or longer and, at up to $7 million per voyage, the costs are nearly double that of a U.S. shipment, the ship charterer involved in the Russian market said.Brazil received around 240,000 tonnes of Russian diesel and gasoil in the first three weeks of March, accounting for a quarter of Brazilian imports, up from Russia’s 12% share in February and less than 1% last year, said Benedict George, head of diesel pricing with energy and commodity data provider Argus.    “Until February, Europe had remained Russia’s primary market for refined product exports; however, in the space of a month, a major pivot has been observed,” tanker broker E A Gibson said in a recent report.LONGER DISTANCES, MORE POLLUTIONMeasured in terms of cargo miles, which multiplies the cargo quantity in metric tonnes by the distance travelled in nautical miles, the amount of Russian oil product shipments to Brazil in March rose to 3.07 billion metric tonne-nautical miles (MT-NM) from 941 million MT-NM in November, according to data from valuation company VesselsValue.   Shipments from Russia to Nigeria rose to 1.88 billion MT-NM in March from zero in November, VesselsValue estimates showed.Clean product cargoes to Saudi Arabia in March jumped to 1.75 billion MT-NM from 31 million MT-NM in November, while shipments to the United Arab Emirates were 4.43 billion MT-NM in March, up from 2.85 billion MT-NM in November, the data showed.Also in March, Russian clean products shipped to Togo reached 973 million MT-NM, up from zero in November. In volume terms, Brazilian imports of oil products from Russia were about 284,000 metric tonnes in February, up from 73,300 tonnes in September, VesselsValue data showed. Conversely, Russian exports to the Netherlands dropped to 238,200 tonnes in February from 1.15 million tonnes in September. Those longer distances are being done at higher costs for Russian products than for typical shipments from Europe.According to market estimates, freight rates for the UK/European continent to West Africa are quoted at $55.77 per tonne for a product tanker with a standard 37,000-tonne load. This compares with an indicative rate of $174.24 per tonne for shipments from Russia’s Baltic ports to Nigeria, $103.84 for Morocco and around $150 to Egypt.With ships travelling further, that is also likely translating into greater emissions from smokestacks. Based on pre-pandemic data, a 10% increase in mileage for all tankers travelling to and from the European economic area would increase their emissions by around 1.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, equal to the emissions of around 750,000 cars per year in Europe, said Valentin Simon, data analyst with the Transport & Environment think tank in Brussels. More

TOKYO (Reuters) -The bankruptcy filing by Richard Branson’s Virgin Orbit Holdings Inc has dealt a blow to Japan’s hopes of building a domestic space industry, with plans for a Kyushu-based spaceport designed to attract tourism on hold for lack of funding.Oita prefecture, home to Japan’s largest number of hot springs, partnered with Virgin Orbit in 2020 to create its first Asian spaceport at Oita Airport using a Boeing (NYSE:BA) 747 for horizontal rocket launches. Founded by British billionaire Branson, Virgin Orbit had marketed itself as a military and intelligence satellite launch platform for the U.S. and its allies, including Japan, at a time when both Washington and Tokyo see China’s rise as a space power as a concern.The original aim was to launch small satellites from Oita as early as last year, but that never occurred, in another setback in Japan’s attempt to become a player in the crowded market for commercial satellite launches after two recent rocket launch failures.Two Japanese companies, ANA Holdings unit All Nippon Airways Trading Co and little-known Japanese satellite development start-up iQPS Inc emerged among the top six creditors when Virgin Orbit filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Tuesday.ANA, owed $1.65 million, had been a key partner for the Oita spaceport, entering a provisional deal with Virgin Orbit in 2021 for 20 flights of its LauncherOne rocket there. ANA said it was hopeful Virgin Orbit, which has said it is seeking a buyer, would be able to restructure and resume business.Fukuoka-based iQPS had paid a $5.2 million deposit to launch its small, lightweight constellation satellites weighing under 100 kilograms (220 pounds), representing a major portion of the $17.2 million Series A funding it had raised in 2017.”We were disappointed when we heard the announcement as we had hoped the situation would improve,” iQPS said of the bankruptcy filing. “We pray that Virgin Orbit will resume their business for the development of the global space industry.”TOURISM HOPESOita prefecture had estimated the spaceport, similar to Virgin Orbit’s Cornwall, England facility, would produce economic benefits worth about 10.2 billion yen ($77.4 million) in the region over the five years from the initial launch. With expectations of about 240,000 tourists visiting the site, local businesses created alien-related souvenirs, from alien passports to “E.T.” bicycles.Locals are still hopeful that a spaceport will eventually emerge. “It is possible that some other company will buy Virgin Orbit. Also, there are other companies and competitors besides Virgin Orbit that are considering horizontal launches, so Oita still has many options to reenter into a contract with them,” said Kunio Ikari, an economics lecturer at Oita University.Oita prefecture said that its efforts to attract a spaceport remains unchanged, while declining to comment on Virgin Orbit or the current status of the project. Oita Airport also declined to comment.While Japan has big ambitions for space – Tokyo has said it hopes to put one of its astronauts on the lunar surface in the latter half of the 2020s – it has also had some other recent setbacks.Japan’s medium-lift H3 rocket failed in March following an aborted launch the month before, in a blow to its efforts to cut the cost of accessing space and compete against Elon Musk’s SpaceX.The Japanese space agency’s solid-fuel Epsilon rocket, which was set to carry iQPS’ small satellites, also failed after launch in October.After the unsuccessful launches, some experts are urging Japan to shift the focus of its space industry.”Japan is concentrating too much on launches,” said Jun Nagashima, cyber and space expert and adviser at Nakasone Peace Institute. “With SpaceX coming out with affordable rockets that can be used repeatedly, it would be better for Japan to compete in different activities and areas in space.”($1 = 131.7900 yen) More

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.The dramatic escalation in China-Taiwan tensions will loom large over Asia on Monday, potentially cranking up market volatility in a session with trading volume already likely to be reduced with much of Europe closed for the Easter Monday holiday.On the economic data front on Monday, Japanese current account figures for February and the possible release of Chinese credit, loan growth and money supply data for March could divert investors’ attention away from the geopolitics.Looking ahead, the major Asian economic and policy calendar events for the rest of the week are: Chinese CPI and PPI inflation, and trade balance; Indian inflation; Australian unemployment; and interest rate decisions from South Korea and Singapore.Globally, market direction this week will be driven in part by March U.S. consumer price inflation on Wednesday. Headline annual inflation is expected to continue slowing, but core remains sticky. Indeed, headline is expected to fall below core.The latest U.S. employment data on Friday – on balance, a pretty solid report – didn’t really change rates traders’ outlook for the Fed much. They still think the Fed has probably peaked and will cut rates by at least 50 basis points this year.The first-quarter U.S. earnings season gets underway this week too, with major banks including JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) and Citigroup (NYSE:C) out on Friday. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to fall 5.2% from Q1 last year.More immediately though, attention on Monday will be fixed on the final day of China’s three-day military drills around Taiwan.The exercises, which Beijing launched after Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen met with U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California last week, involve China simulating precision strikes on Taiwan and encircling the island with around 10 warships and dozens of fighter jets.The de facto U.S. embassy in Taiwan said on Sunday the U.S. was monitoring China’s drills and was “comfortable and confident” it had sufficient resources and capabilities regionally to ensure peace and stability.Meanwhile, Foxconn said on Sunday it is planning to invest $820 million in the next three years in new manufacturing facilities in southern Taiwan to support its electric vehicle (EV) ambitions.Foxconn, a major Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) supplier and iPhone assembler, has big ambitions in the EV market as it seeks to diversify its revenue base.Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:- Day 3 of China’s military exercises around Taiwan- Japan current account (February)- China credit, loan growth, money supply (March) (By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie Kao) More

Options trading is surging as investors brace for a fresh round of financial turmoil in US regional bank stocks, with lenders preparing to reveal how badly their earnings have been squeezed by the troubles that took down Silicon Valley Bank.Since SVB’s collapse and the massive mid-March slide that came as a result, regional bank share prices have stabilised. Now, traders are buying record amounts of options tied to midsized lenders that had some of the highest volatility, according to Bloomberg data. And several banks that were badly hit in the recent volatility — such as Citizens Financial, Charles Schwab and Keybank — have seen options interest hit record levels, while many more are at multiyear highs.Pricing of the contracts suggests investors expect stock swings for some banks to be up to three times normal levels, according to analysis by RBC Capital Markets.The interest in lenders including Citizens Financial and KeyBank, as well as Charles Schwab, an investment group with a banking licence, reflects the trouble facing midsized lenders: they have long played an outsized role in the US economy but face a diminished profit outlook, deposit outflows and tighter regulation that could test their ability to thrive.Analysts at Morgan Stanley recently cut earnings estimates for regional banks by 20 per cent this year and nearly 30 per cent for 2024.“The profitability of the sector has gotten a lot harder in the past month,” said Chris McGratty, who follows regional banks for KBW and expects the recent crisis will result in more mergers. “Bank boards are going to have to discuss whether it still makes sense to be an independent company.”Here’s what I’m keeping tabs on today: Easter Monday: Many financial markets in Europe, Canada, and Hong Kong are closed today for the second day of Easter.Economic Data: Turkey releases its employment rate data for February today.Northern Ireland: The UK celebrates the 25th anniversary of the signing of the Good Friday Agreement that ended 30 years of conflict in Northern Ireland and set up the region’s current power-sharing agreement.PS We’re launching a new newsletter on April 17: One Must-Read. The newsletter will bring readers the most exceptional story from the FT each weekday. Sign up by clicking here.Five more top stories1. Tesla plans to build a factory in Shanghai to produce its Megapack energy storage system, as chief executive Elon Musk resists rising opposition in Washington to US technology companies investing in China.2. China holds a second day of military drills after Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen’s US trip. The manoeuvres, which are said to run through Monday, began after Tsai returned late on Friday from the trip.Related: How did Taiwan and the US manage risks in Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting with Kevin McCarthy?3. A Saudi delegation has arrived in Yemen for talks to end the war. The delegation, and a team from Oman which had mediated negotiations, are due to meet a top rebel leader in the Houthi capital Sana’a in the coming days.4. Japanese pharma boss rules out an exit from China after executive’s arrest. Astellas chief executive Naoki Okamura said the company will diversify its supply chains, in the first comments since a local executive of the company was detained last month.5. The Biden administration vows to fight a Texas judge’s ruling on abortion pills. Health secretary Xavier Becerra says “all options” are being considered to guarantee the availability of the abortion drug mifepristone.The Big Read

Zaslav, centre, is once again on the charm offensive. The company’s streaming service is relaunching, combining HBO Max — home of White Lotus and Game of Thrones — with Discovery Plus, and traditional blockbusters are in the works © FT montage/Bloomberg/Warner Bros/HBO

After a painful 12 months, Warner Bros Discovery CEO David Zaslav is once again on the charm offensive. Hoping to repair ties with Hollywood’s talent community and improve morale among Warner staff — already bruised after several tumultuous years under AT&T’s leadership — he is promising to revive big Warner film franchises and prioritise full cinematic runs before moving to streaming services. Can he win back Hollywood?We’re also reading . . . Will AI solve my midlife crisis? The answers from a chatbot career coach are mind-numbingly obvious and matter-of-fact. But they may entice people to be more open, writes Emma Jacobs.Yotam Ottolenghi: The Israeli-born British chef talks about his unusual education, running his business like a kibbutz, and why he’s taking his brand to Paris in this week’s Lunch with the FT.DIY spirituality: With the decline of organised religion in the west, we are seeking solace in the strangest places, writes Camilla Cavendish.Chart of the dayAccording to the Uzbek central bank, deposits in the country grew by UZS 60.5tn ($5.3bn) in 2022, twice as fast as the previous year, hinting at how Russians have retained access to international commerce despite international sanctions. Read the full story here.Take a break from the news

© Mikiko Hara

Japanese photographer Mikiko Hara holds her camera — a 1930s German-made Ikonta — at chest height. She never uses a viewfinder. It’s as though she doesn’t want her eye to be too involved. Or at least to not let it overpower the moment itself. See more from Small Myths, her book of previously unpublished photographs, in this week’s FT Magazine.Additional contributions from Tee Zhuo, Emily Goldberg and Vita Dadoo Lomeli More

The world’s leading economies are showing surprising resilience despite facing a perilous moment, according to research for the Financial Times that suggests the global economy may avoid a sharp slowdown this year. China, the US, the eurozone, India and the UK are all growing faster than had been expected late last year, the latest edition of the twice-yearly Brookings-FT tracking index found, with consumer and business confidence rising after a rocky end to 2022. As recently as January, central banks and institutions such as the IMF were bracing for a severe downturn. The research comes as global policymakers prepare to meet in Washington at the IMF and World Bank’s spring meetings this week. The fund is expected to confirm that the global economy will grow at a stronger rate than it forecast at its last meetings in October. There is little sign of the recessions that some analysts had feared, despite high inflation and rising geopolitical and financial risks. Despite this, managing director Kristalina Georgieva has warned that medium-term prospects for the global economy are at their bleakest since 1990. Eswar Prasad, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington-based think-tank, said the recent banking turmoil in Europe and the US was “exposing the frailties of financial systems in the major economies and adding to concerns about medium-term growth”. Policymakers, especially central bankers, were “floundering” in an environment of rapidly multiplying risks, he said.Despite that, the index suggested the world’s two largest economies would perform better than expected by analysts in the autumn. China was “poised to register strong growth in 2023”, Prasad said, while the US economy continued “its surprising run despite numerous headwinds”.China’s recovery would stem from the end of its zero-Covid policy and a slowdown in the subsequent wave of infections, with the country likely to reach its 5 per cent growth target this year despite an increasingly state-dominated economy.

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Banking stresses in the US could derail the current strength in consumer spending and employment growth. But a soft landing was still possible, Prasad said, with expectations of inflation easing.The eurozone and the UK were past the worst of their difficulties from 2022, with wholesale gas prices down more than 80 per cent compared with the peaks last summer. High inflation would constrain growth, however.India was seeing the benefit of economic reforms of recent years and was poised for another year of strong growth, according to the index. The Brookings-FT Tracking Index for the Global Economic Recovery (Tiger) compares indicators of real activity, financial markets and confidence with their historical averages, both for the global economy and individual countries. The main composite index showed economic conditions to be close to historic averages both in advanced and emerging economies. While hard data had deteriorated since the autumn, confidence indicators had picked up as had financial markets, especially in emerging economies.

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Prasad said that, although activity was tracking historic averages, the global economy faced significant headwinds. The research “underscores a perilous moment for the world economy, with persistently high inflation, banking sector turmoil, and geopolitical risks threatening to derail growth”, he said. If these materialised, they would “take a toll on household and business confidence and are likely to impinge negatively on medium-term growth”, he warned.Leading emerging economies were benefiting from inherent dynamism and improved policy frameworks, but outside these economies the outlook was considerably worse, according to the Tiger index. Low-income and frontier economies were suffering the most as a result of rising debt-servicing costs, weak export demand, and the limited ability of governments to stimulate growth while maintaining the confidence of international financial markets. More

Hello and welcome to the working week. Jonathan is taking a well-deserved break for the next fortnight, so I’ll be taking you through forthcoming events to look out for. A few world leaders are taking to the air this week. Brazil’s president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is off on his delayed state visit to China and French president Emmanuel Macron is visiting the Netherlands. President Joe Biden will be the guest of honour in Northern Ireland as the region marks 25 years since the Good Friday Agreement. The US leader is arriving on Tuesday and will then begin a tour that also takes in the Republic of Ireland, including visiting some distant cousins, before flying back to Washington on Friday. While Biden’s Belfast visit marks a milestone in the Irish peace process, Jude Webber’s excellent Big Read shows that a quarter of a century on some of the paramilitaries that took part in the revolt against British rule have now morphed into something closer to organised crime groups.Northern Ireland remains on a difficult path. The region’s government is locked up by political paralysis as the Democratic Unionist party has boycotted the region’s power-sharing executive for more than a year in protest at the proposed Brexit deal, meaning the rudderless region is missing out on investment.Steve Baker, UK minister for Northern Ireland, has urged the DUP to “seize the moment” of the Good Friday Agreement and end its protest or the British government may have to consider direct rule from London. While Biden is out of Washington, the IMF and the World Bank have moved in and will be holding their annual spring meeting. Expect a lot of talk about inflation and the plans to bring it under control. Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey is due to speak on Wednesday and US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen will brief the press on Friday. This is my first week in the driver’s seat for the Week Ahead and there’s a lot to choose from, but my eye was caught by the big tobacco companies that will on Friday have to pay a collective $9bn to 46 US states as part of the 1998 Master Settlement Agreement. The amount is a percentage of the overall revenues tobacco companies make for the year, and they will continue to pay it while cigarettes are sold in the US. Contact me at [email protected] with your feedback, or if there’s anything interesting happening next week that you think I should cover. If you’re reading the Week Ahead as an email, just hit reply. Economic dataA few pieces of economic data to keep an eye on this week. Canada has an interest rate announcement on Tuesday and the European Central Bank is releasing long-term interest rate statistics for March on Friday. As part of its spring meeting, the IMF will on Tuesday release its global financial stability report, an overview of the health of the worldwide economy. There are also a clutch of countries releasing data on consumer prices for March, including China on Tuesday and the US on Wednesday, which will offer an indication of how efforts to calm inflation are going. CompaniesIn the UK, supermarket chain Tesco reports its results for 2022. This will be a bellwether for how UK shoppers are adapting to higher prices. The supermarket boss said in January that inflation had not yet peaked and as a result consumers would move towards cheaper products. There are a few other retail results such as Christian Dior on Tuesday and LVMH on Wednesday that will offer a peek at how the luxury market has fared. Towards the end of the week banks including Citi, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo report first-quarter results, the first since the recent crisis that took down Silicon Valley Bank.Key economic and company reportsHere is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.MondayTurkey, employment rate data for FebruaryGreece, March Consumer Price Index (CPI) dataUK, Philippe Schaillee takes over as CEO of Costa Coffee, the UK’s largest coffee chain TuesdayUK, Barclays publishes consumer spending data for March including trends in credit and debit usage Brazil, China, Denmark, Norway, Taiwan, Ukraine: March consumer price index (CPI)US, the IMF releases its global financial stability reportResults: Boeing Q1, Christian Dior Q1WednesdayCanada, Bank of Canada interest rate announcement. The bank has held rates steady at 4.5 per cent since January where it indicated it wanted to pause rate rises after a spate of aggressive increases in 2022US, Department of Labor releases March consumer price index (CPI) dataResults: BlackRock Q1, LVMH Q1 ThursdayCzech Republic, Germany, Romania, Ireland, Netherlands, Portugal, release Consumer Price Index (CPI) for MarchOpec monthly oil market report Results: Delta Air Lines Q1, Infosys FY, Tesco FYFridayECB, Long-term interest rates statistics for March UK, Office for National Statistics releases productivity dataUS, Treasury secretary Janet Yellen press briefing at IMF/World Bank spring meeting Results: Citi Q1, JPMorgan Chase Q1, Wells Fargo Q1, 888 Holdings FYWorld eventsFinally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this weekMondayEaster Monday bank holiday, many financial markets are closed including in Europe, Canada and Hong KongUK, 25th anniversary of the signing of the Good Friday Agreement that ended 30 years of conflict in Northern Ireland and set up the region’s current power-sharing agreementTuesdayBrazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva starts his week-long visit to China that was postponed at the end of last month. Lula plans to meet Chinese president Xi Jinping and sign about 20 agreements. Before his visit was postponed Lula’s foreign minister Mauro Vieira told the FT the Brazilian president was interested in discussing a peace club to bring an end to the Ukraine conflictFrench president Emmanuel Macron visits the Netherlands Switzerland, the country’s two chambers of parliament hold an extraordinary session to debate the deal negotiated by the government for UBS to buy Credit SuisseUK, Joe Biden arrives in Northern Ireland for events to celebrate the anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement. He is expected to travel to the Republic of Ireland later in the weekUK, junior doctors stage a 96-hour walkout in protest over payWednesdaySwitzerland, the European Court of Human Rights hears the case brought by Geneva union action community against the Swiss government over its ban on protests imposed early in the Covid-19 pandemicBank of England governor Andrew Bailey speaks at an Institute of International Finance event on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank spring meetingsThursdayFrance, The line-up of films that will feature at the 76th Cannes Festival in May is revealedIndia, Rahul Gandhi former leader of the Opposition Congress is in court for a second hearing to appeal against the defamation charge that has barred him from parliamentUK, NHS releases figures for February and March including accident and emergency waiting timesUS, Jury selection for voting-machine maker Dominion’s $1.6bn lawsuit against Fox News. The case is set to start the following week. The jury will decide if Fox acted with “actual malice” or “reckless disregard” when broadcasting false claims about DominionFridayFrance, The country’s Constitutional Council rules on Emmanuel Macron’s proposed pension reforms. The council’s decision will be a crucial point for the president’s push to increase the retirement age from 62 to 64, which has seen large protests and the police using tactics not deployed since the gilets jaunes movementUS, National Rifle Association holds its annual meeting. Former president Donald Trump and his former vice-president Mike Pence will speak. Trump recently pleaded not guilty to 34 charges in a New York courtSaturdayIsrael, the Jewish orthodox Holy Fire ceremony is held at the Church of the Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem UK, Grand National horse race is set to be held in Liverpool US, the currently declared Republican presidential candidates, Donald Trump and Nikki Haley, disclose campaign finance details for the past three months. The data will give an idea of which big donors are backing each candidate so far and how much goodwill Trump and Hayley hold among the party’s grassroots supportersSundayJapan, Foreign ministers for G7 countries including the UK and the US meet to discuss issues such as Ukraine and ChinaUK, Amazon workers in Coventry strike over pay. While the union is not officially recognised by the company, a strike in January was a milestone for unions that have long struggled to gain a foothold in logistics More