Aurelia Butler

PARIS (Reuters) -Protesters marched across France on Thursday in a show of opposition to President Emmanuel Macron and his deeply unpopular pension bill, after a meeting between the prime minister and labour unions failed to break the political stalemate.Protests against the reform – which lifts the retirement age by two years to 64 – have drawn crowds of hundreds of thousands in rallies organised by unions since January, and at times turned violent.Labour groups vowed to dig in their heels after talks with Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne on Wednesday, which lasted just an hour, failed to calm the situation.”What those in power do, the people can undo,” protesters chanted in the western France city of Rennes, carrying banners that read: “Fight for our pensions”, and “Strike, blockade, Macron walk away.”Union leaders and protesters said the only way out of the crisis was for the legislation to be withdrawn, an option which Borne and Macron have repeatedly rejected.”There is no other solution than withdrawing the reform,” the new leader of the hardline CGT union, Sophie Binet, said at the start of the Paris rally.Laurent Berger, head of the country’s biggest union CFDT, called “a maximum of workers, men and women, to join the marches across France tomorrow.”Thursday’s marches – the 11th nationwide day of protests in the past three months – could provide an indication of whether the drawn-out rallies are losing steam or gaining momentum.The previous day of demonstrations on March 28 drew smaller crowds, according to the Interior Ministry, with 740,000 people protesting across the country compared with a record 1.28 million seen on March 7.’UNPOPULAR’Paris public transport operator RATP predicted traffic would be almost normal on Thursday. Trains were also less heavily disrupted than in previous days of strikes against the reform.Civil aviation authority asked airlines to cut flights by 20% in cities like Bordeaux and Marseille, but not at Paris airports like in previous strikes since mid-January.Some 20% of primary school teachers are also expected to join the strike, local media quoted the Snuipp-FSU union as saying, down from 30% for March 28.Strikes are still disrupting operations at oil refineries and nuclear plants, while garbage collectors have vowed to resume their protest from next week.The latest wave of demonstrations represents the most serious challenge to the authority of President Emmanuel Macron, on a state visit to China, since the “Yellow Vest” revolt four years ago.Polls show a wide majority of French oppose the pension legislation and the government’s decision to push it through parliament without a vote.But a source close to Macron said that was not what mattered.”If the role of a president of the republic is to make decisions according to public opinion, there is no need to have elections,” the source said. “Being president is to assume choices that may be unpopular at a given time.”A key date will be April 14th, when the Constitutional Council gives its verdict on the pension bill. Constitutional experts say it is unlikely to strike it down, which the government likely hopes will help weaken protests.”Mobilisation will continue, one way or another … it’s a long distance race,” the CGT’s Binet said. More

LONDON (Reuters) – The dollar seesawed around two-month lows on Thursday, as traders weighed up how pivotal U.S. jobs data coming out on a stock trading holiday might impact Federal Reserve policy, and unleash a potentially volatile market reaction.The closely watched U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday, when many markets around the world are closed, will follow disappointing manufacturing and services sector data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and private employment figures on Wednesday. While the slew of sluggish economic data has caused traders to scale back bets on how much longer U.S. rates would need to stay in restrictive territory, it has simultaneously reignited concerns about the risk of recession.Economists polled by Reuters expect non-farm payrolls to have grown by 239,000 in March, following February’s 311,000 gain. The non-farm payrolls number has been far more prone to delivering upside surprises than misses in the last year or two.For markets, this could make for a highly volatile session.Michael Brown, a markets strategist at TraderX, said payrolls numbers had beaten expectations 11 months in a row – the longest unbroken stretch of positive surprises in several decades.”That’s got to end at some point. It’s almost ironic for it to come to an end on Good Friday, when liquidity is horrible and no one is trading the markets,” he said.”If we get a miss, I think it’s too soon for anything to change for policy again in May – they’re not going to over react to one jobs print. But in terms of trading it all, or expecting a logical market reaction to it, we’re going to get absolute pandemonium whatever happens, there is not going to be the volume in the market,” he said. GRAPHIC – Surprise me “STEER CLEAR”The U.S. dollar index, which hit a two-month low this week, thanks in part to a drop in Treasury yields, was flat at 101.89. A non-farm payrolls miss might beef up the dollar’s appeal as a safe haven, TraderX’s Brown said.”Arguably, if we get a miss you probably want to buy the dollar, the yen rallies a bit. Treasuries would rally hard as that’s the only thing that is actually open. ‘Steer clear’ is really the message from the market side of things,” he said. The Japanese yen, which has also some support from safe haven bids, was last down very slightly on the day at 131.37 per dollar.Meanwhile, the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars slid 0.43% and 0.66%, respectively.”The key to FX is going to be that interplay between what the U.S. economy numbers dish up as far as interest rates and sentiment about Fed policy,” said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY).In other currencies, sterling was up 0.07% on the day at $1.247, while the euro was little changed at $1.091.The dour economic signs have strengthened the view that the Fed will reverse course on rate increases, with traders hoping for more insight when Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard speaks later on Thursday.Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, a known hawk, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Wednesday that it was too early to know if the Fed would need to raise its benchmark rate at its next policy meeting in early May.U.S. rate futures markets are currently pricing in a roughly even chance of the Fed leaving rates unchanged at its next meeting, with rate cuts being priced in as early as July and through to the end of the year. More

In the first three months of the year the percentage of Italian businesses that expected better economic conditions rose to 14.9% from 6.3% in the previous three months, the Bank of Italy said in its quarterly survey.The percentage of those expecting worsening economic conditions almost halved to 23.7% from 47%.Italian Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said in March the outlook had brightened since a 0.1% quarterly fall in gross domestic product at the end of 2022, and the country was likely to avoid a second quarter of contraction at the start of this year.Expectations are less gloomy thanks both to stronger demand and falling energy prices, the survey said.In contrast to the fourth quarter of 2022, inflation forecasts decreased “probably thanks to the strong fall in the Consumer Price Index seen at the start of the year,” the central bank added.In February Italian inflation was revised down slightly due to the energy prices decline but core components accelerated.Firms’ expectations for consumer price inflation in 12 months time fell to 6.4%, compared with 8.1% in the previous survey. Over a two year horizon the expectation was for a 5.3% inflation rate, down from 6.7%.Problems due to sky-rocketing inflation lessened and employment expectations in the second quarter are positive for all sectors. The survey was conducted between Feb, 24 and March 17 among Italian industry and services businesses with at least 50 employees.The banking crisis triggered by the U.S. lenders Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank (OTC:SBNY) erupted on March 10. More

BENGALURU (Reuters) – New Zealand’s central bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May to 5.50% following a surprise half-point move on Wednesday and then pause for the remainder of the year, a snap Reuters poll of economists showed on Thursday.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) April 5 decision stunned financial markets and economists who were expecting a smaller quarter-point move as the economy has already slipped into a mild recession.One of the first global central banks to tighten monetary policy, the RBNZ has raised rates by 500 basis points since October 2021 but inflation, at 7.2% in the fourth quarter, is still more than double the central bank’s target range of 1-3%.A majority of economists in a snap Reuters poll, 13 of 21, said the RBNZ would opt for one final 25 basis point hike at its next meeting on May 24, taking the official cash rate to 5.50%, a higher terminal rate than thought just two days ago. The remaining eight expected rates to remain unchanged at 5.25%. The largest banks in the country – ANZ, ASB, Kiwibank, Bank of New Zealand, and Westpac – all expected a final 25 basis point hike next month.”The RBNZ is determined to lower inflation, whatever the cost,” noted Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank. “We must expect a 25bp move to 5.50% in May. Even if it is a step too far, it’s a step they are clearly willing to take – and they can mop up afterwards. We continue to highlight the risk of overtightening, the reality of which rises with every move.”The RBNZ’s approach is in sharp contrast to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision on April 4 to hold its cash rate unchanged at 3.60% after noting it needed additional time to assess the impact of previous rate increases.Among economists who had a view on RBNZ rates beyond the May meeting, a comfortable majority, 11 of 19, expected rates to peak at 5.50% in May, in line with the central bank’s terminal rate forecast. Of the remaining eight, seven forecast rates to end at 5.25% and one predicted a rate of 5.75%.A like-for-like analysis of the latest poll and the one taken before the April 5 decision showed nearly all respondents, 15 of 16, had raised their peak rate projection.(For other stories from the Reuters global long-term economic outlook polls package:) More

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia has conveyed to International Monetary Fund its commitment to provide financing to Pakistan, Pakistani junior finance minister Aisha Ghaus Pasha said on Thursday, a critical support to secure IMF funding.Saudi Arabia’s $2 billion pledged in external financing support to Pakistan is one of the final conditions for an IMF deal that Islamabad needs to avert a default. “Apparently Saudi Arabia has committed to IMF, and IMF has indicated to us that there has been a correspondence from them,” Pasha told reporters in Islamabad.The IMF’s resident representative did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for a comment. The IMF has asked Pakistan to secure assurances on external financing from friendly countries and multilateral partners to fund its balance of payment gap for this fiscal year, which ends in June. Islamabad has been hosting an IMF mission since early February to negotiate a series of policy measures to secure $1.1 billion funding for the cash-strapped economy, which is on the verge of collapse.The funds are part of a $6.5 billion bailout package the IMF approved in 2019, which analysts say is critical for Pakistan to avert defaulting on external payment obligations.The deal will also unlock other bilateral and multilateral financing avenues for Pakistan to shore up its foreign exchange reserves, which have fallen to four weeks worth of import cover, and help it steer out of a balance of payment crisis.Pasha said Islamabad was also in talks with UAE to secure an assurance for a foreign reserves deposits in central bank. More