Aurelia Butler

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) -The Mexican economy could grow up to 3.0% both this year and next, boosted by increased manufacturing investment and cooling inflation, according to a copy of the government’s latest budget forecasts seen by Reuters on Friday.The ministry estimates Latin America’s second-biggest economy will expand between 2.2% and 3.0% this year, and between 1.6% and 3.0% in 2024, the document showed, as the country continues to claw back pandemic-led losses.For 2023, the “lower end of the range was adjusted upwards due to the good performance of the domestic economy,” said the document containing preliminary forecasts for next year.Mexico’s inflation rate by the end of this year is seen slowing to 5.0%, and then to 4.0% by the end of 2024.As inflation climbed worldwide, central banks rushed to hike interest rates and slow the trend. Mexico’s central bank raised rates 25 basis points to 11.25% Thursday, but hinted the hiking cycle could be nearing its end.The international rate increases have not compromised Mexico’s public finances, the ministry said.Debt when President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s term concludes next year should be “moderate and diversified,” the ministry said, with around 80.6% denominated in Mexican pesos.The ministry forecast Mexico’s crude oil export mix to average $66.60 per barrel this year, then slip to $56.30 next year, in estimates that are key to public finances since exports from state oil company Pemex represent a major source of tax revenue for the government.The ministry saw total crude output at 1.877 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, mostly coming from Pemex operations, then ticking up to 1.914 million bpd in 2024.The Dos Bocas refinery, a Lopez Obrador project underway in the Gulf state of Tabasco, is expected to begin operating at full capacity next year, the finance ministry said.Mexico is also primed to benefit from private investment fueled by “nearshoring,” the trend of moving production to North America and away from Asia, the ministry said.Nearshoring could add up to 1.2 percentage points to GDP the ministry said, without specifying a time frame.In particular, the ministry anticipated a boost to foreign investment in manufacturing, and said the automotive industry was a “natural candidate” to take advantage of nearshoring.Electric vehicle maker Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) recently announced it would build a “gigafactory” in the northern border state of Nuevo Leon, which local officials have said could bring in up to $10 billion in investment and create 10,000 jobs. More

“On the one hand, if tighter financing conditions restrain the economy, the appropriate path of the federal funds rate may be lower than it would be in their absence,” Cook said in remarks prepared for delivery. “On the other hand, if data show continued strength in the economy and slower disinflation, we may have more work to do.”The Fed last week lifted the policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a 4.75%-5.00% range, and said “some additional policy firming may be appropriate.” Economic data had been coming in stronger than expected, with inflation showing signs of accelerating and the labor market tight, feeding a mounting sense among Fed policymakers that more aggressive policy tightening would be needed to bring inflation down to the Fed’s 2% goal. But the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank less than two weeks before the Fed’s meeting up-ended that view, and now Cook says the policy outlook needs to balance a focus on economic data with forward-looking analysis.”I am closely watching developments in the banking sector, which have the potential to tighten credit conditions and counteract some of that momentum,” Cook said. More

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) -The International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved Argentina’s fourth review under its $44 billion loan program on Friday, unlocking the disbursement of $5.4 billion to the indebted country, the lender said in a short statement.The IMF made no mention of Argentina’s request for easing reserve targets that have becoming increasingly difficult to meet amid a historic drought hitting the country’s grains exports, but said a longer statement would be released later.The country’s central bank foreign reserves jumped by $2.5 billion on Friday versus a day earlier, data from the bank showed. That reflected the new IMF funds minus $2.7 billion of repayments Argentina had to make to the lender on Friday.The IMF said its executive board had completed the fourth review of Argentina’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) which “enables an immediate disbursement” of funds to the country, taking the total given via the program to $28.9 billion.A central bank source told Reuters the funds had arrived and been reflected in reserve levels. Those remain very depleted after drought has hit the country’s grains exports, its main source of dollars, and global inflation has pushed up costs.”The disbursement from the Fund has entered and it will be reflected in the reserves, which rose more than $2.5 billion as a net effect after payments were made,” the source said. More