Aurelia Butler

Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) out on Thursday showed vacancies in the February quarter fell 1.5%, from the previous quarter, to 438,500.That was the lowest number in a year, but still 92% higher than in February 2020 before the pandemic struck.”There is still a very high demand for labour from employers across Australia and across all industries,” said Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics.”This continued to be most acute in the Accommodation and food services and Arts and recreation services industries, where vacancies were around three to four times what they were before the pandemic.”The strength of the labour market is one reason the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has raised interest rates ten times since May to 3.60%.Thursday’s data showed vacancies in the private sector dipped 1.5% in the February, while the public sector saw a drop of 1.4%. The number of vacancies was highest in public administration followed by the accommodation and food sector, health care and education. More

SYDNEY (Reuters) – National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY) said on Thursday it expects Australian interest rates to peak at 3.85%, down from a previous estimate of 4.1%. NAB added it still expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its official cash rate by 25 basis points in April for a final time, beginning rate cuts in the first half of 2024.”We continue to see rate cuts in H1 2024 bringing the cash rate back to 3.1% as the economy slows and unemployment rises,” the bank’s chief economist Alan Oster said in a statement. Fellow Australian bank Westpac also cut its peak rate forecast to 3.85% earlier this month. More

Indonesian business has criticised the “unfair” exclusion of the country’s critical minerals from a huge package of US subsidies for green technology as it seeks to assuage Washington’s concerns about Chinese dominance of its sprawling resources sector.Arsjad Rasjid, chair of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin), which has close ties to the government, said Indonesia could play a crucial role in fulfilling US demand for electric vehicles and batteries. The country has the world’s largest reserves of nickel, a vital material for EV battery production.The US government is expected in the coming weeks to publish guidance on how battery and EV makers can qualify for tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act, a landmark climate bill passed last year which includes $370bn in subsidies for clean energy technology.But experts and people close to the negotiations said batteries containing Indonesia-sourced components may remain ineligible for the full IRA tax credits because the country does not have a free trade agreement with the US and because Chinese companies dominate its nickel industry via joint ventures and mine ownership.Rasjid said Indonesia was working closely with multinational companies to build separate China and non-China nickel supply chains.Indonesia is “friend to both” China and the west, he said. “We are supplying to China and supplying to the US and EU. Even on nickel mines, we have to make sure we have a Chinese portfolio and non-Chinese portfolio.”The US “should look at Indonesia and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations [Asean] as an alternative to China”, added Rasjid, who is also president director of Indonesian conglomerate Indika Energy.The IRA grants tax credits to companies if a certain percentage of the value of critical minerals in EV batteries is extracted or processed in the US or FTA partner countries.Indonesia and other countries hope the US will choose to grant members of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) equivalent status to those with full FTAs with the US.“We are in discussions about IPEF and the spirit of that agreement is to work together. If the US excludes Asean, it feels really unfair,” Rasjid said. Indonesia is the chair of Asean this year.Washington and Tokyo on Tuesday signed a trade agreement covering critical minerals for EV batteries that Japan believes is likely to pave the way for tax incentive eligibility, while the US launched talks with the EU on a similar deal this month.Another provision of the IRA restricts tax benefits if a “foreign entity of concern” extracts, processes or recycles critical minerals or manufactures or assembles components. Experts said the “foreign entity of concern” provision was especially worrying for Jakarta.From the beginning of 2025, companies wishing to receive the full credits will have to eliminate Chinese critical minerals and components from their supply chains altogether.“Establishing separate supply chains that rely on Indonesian nickel — one for the US that is IRA-compliant and one for other markets — is not easily implementable given there is no FTA between the USA and Indonesia and the dominance of China in nickel in Indonesia,” said Ross Gregory, executive director of electric vehicle consultancy New Electric Partners. “The crux is how much leeway will be given in IRA interpretation for external downstream processing of Indonesia source nickel,” he added.One US mining executive familiar with negotiations said there would “almost certainly” be no deal for Indonesia in the near term, while the interpretation of the “foreign entity of concern” clause was unlikely to be clarified until next month.

Indonesia’s fate also has broader ramifications for EV supply chains in the region. South Korean conglomerates LG, SK Group, Samsung and Hyundai are significant investors in downstream segments including cathodes, battery cells and vehicle production.LG Energy Solution, the world’s leading non-Chinese battery maker, is building an EV battery factory in Indonesia with carmaker Hyundai.An LGES-led consortium has also signed an agreement with Indonesian state-owned companies to establish an EV battery supply chain to reduce their dependence on China.The consortium has invested in an Indonesian nickel mine, which will also help it secure supplies of cobalt, a byproduct of nickel production.Additional reporting by Aime Williams in Washington More

    Bolsonaro spoke to a CNN Brasil journalist at an airport in Florida before boarding a flight to Brazil, where he is returning to for the first time since losing reelection in October. “I will not lead any opposition. I will help my party as a person with experience,” he said. Bolsonaro added he plans to travel across Brazil in an effort to help his party in local elections next year. More

BRASILIA (Reuters) -Brazil’s new fiscal framework targets a zero primary deficit in 2024, followed by surpluses in subsequent years, as President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva seeks a sustainable trajectory for the country’s public debt, government sources told Reuters on Wednesday.The primary surplus will be equivalent to 0.5% of GDP in 2024, rising to 1% of GDP in 2025, one of the sources said. The new framework will combine a target for primary results with a spending rule and will have adjustment mechanisms in case of noncompliance.”It is a target with bands, associated with a spending rule where expenditure cannot grow by more than 70% of revenue,” the source said, adding that there would be a cap on annual expenditure growth.The sources spoke anonymously because the topic is being addressed in private conversations with members of Congress.The framework is scheduled to be presented on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. local time (1330 GMT), the Finance Ministry said later on Wednesday in a statement. The framework is needed to ease fiscal concerns after Lula secured congressional approval for a multi-billion-real package that bypasses the constitutional spending cap so his government can boost social spending and fulfill campaign promises.This year’s primary deficit target, the first of the leftist Lula administration, is 228.1 billion reais ($44 billion), but the Finance Ministry recently estimated that the shortfall will be 107.6 billion reais, equal to 1.0% of GDP, helped by a jump in expected tax revenue. Earlier on Wednesday, Institutional Relations Minister Alexandre Padilha said the government was finalizing the new rule, adding that Lula and Finance Minister Fernando Haddad would meet to do so. Haddad is expected to present it to leaders of the lower house of Congress later in the day.Talking to reporters, Padilha said that the leaders of Brazil’s Congress have indicated that, once submitted, the fiscal rules should be approved quickly. ($1 = 5.1351 reais) More

LONDON (Reuters) – London is no longer the clear leader among global financial centres after New York rose from second place to level peg with the British capital as more companies list in the United States, the City of London Corporation’s said on Thursday.The City, which administers London’s financial district, said in its annual survey that benchmarks on the performance of global financial centres gave London an overall competitiveness score of 60, up from 59 in 2022, but New York increased its score to 60.Singapore was third with 51, Frankfurt 46, Paris 43, and Tokyo 35.The City said Britain continues to build on its long-standing strengths as the world’s largest centre for international debt issuance, commercial (re)insurance, and foreign exchange trading, and the second largest asset management centre.But the number of international company listings in London is falling, and few global firms are choosing to list there, the City said.Britain’s Financial Conduct Authority flagged proposed changes on Wednesday to streamline listing rules.Finance sector officials in Britain have called for faster reforms of financial rules to bolster the City’s competitiveness after Brexit pitted London against EU centres such as Amsterdam, Paris and Frankfurt.New York overtook London in 2018 to become the top global financial centre in the separate Z/Yen survey.The City is due in the third quarter to set out recommendations for a long-term blueprint to “kickstart” London’s role as a post-Brexit global financial centre by 2030.”The UK remains one of the most open and global financial centres with better access to international markets than the US, France, or Japan. But our competitive advantage is at risk,” said Chris Hayward, policy chairman at the City of London Corporation. More