Aurelia Butler

Today’s top storiesGerman chancellor Olaf Scholz rejected comparisons between Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse as a slump in the German lender’s shares sparked a further day of turmoil for the banking sector. The Swiss regulator defended the wipeout of $17bn in AT1 bonds in the takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS. US bondholders are preparing to sue. The UK competition regulator dropped a key concern about the impact of Microsoft’s $75bn acquisition of video game maker Activision Blizzard on rival Sony, clearing a substantial roadblock to approving the deal. France and the UK have been forced to postpone King Charles’s state visit because of mass protests against President Emmanuel Macron’s plan to raise the pension age from 62 to 64 by 2030 in an effort to cut costs.For up-to-the-minute news updates, visit our live blogGood evening.Whether it’s spy balloons, US export controls or security concerns over a video app, tech tensions between the US and China show no sign of letting up.We report today that China has released a top chip investor from detention to help it navigate its way through a semiconductor battle with the US. Chen Datong, head of Yuanhe Puhua (Suzhou) Investment Management, also known as Hua Capital, had been detained last August as part of a crackdown against the country’s chip industry, which despite spending billions of dollars, had failed to come up with any big breakthroughs to end its reliance on foreign semiconductors. US restrictions on chip-related exports, first announced last October, are part of wider efforts to build up its domestic capacity and prevent China from developing technologies with military uses. The latest stipulation says US chipmakers operating in China will have to halt their operations for at least a decade if they want access to federal funds earmarked in the $280bn Chips and Science Act.The moves have prompted a rethink of semiconductor strategy in China, with chipmakers given easier access to subsidies and more control over state-backed research. In the meantime, some Chinese AI groups are getting round the restrictions by accessing high-end US chips through intermediaries, while companies such as the Netherlands’ ASML, the chip toolmaker that is Europe’s biggest tech company, have expressed concerns about potential intellectual property theft. Tensions are also ratcheting up over TikTok, the viral video app that has become a flashpoint in relations between the US and China as politicians express fears that it could be used to steal sensitive data.A US congressional committee yesterday battered chief executive Shou Zi Chew, threatening to ban the app, calling it a “cancer” and a tool of surveillance, while the UK parliament became the latest public organisation to ban it from its devices and networks. It has already been banned from UK government devices, following similar moves in the EU, the US and Canada.Chew vowed to keep the app “free from government manipulation” but was rather undermined by China denouncing Washington’s demand that it should be sold by its owner ByteDance to cut ties with its home country.All of which might go some way to explain why US businesses are rather shy about their attendance at the China Development Forum — “China’s Davos” — which opens tomorrow. This year’s event, billed as an opening-up party after three years of pandemic restrictions, could offer some clues as to whether political concerns are still being trumped by the lure of what Deloitte calls “the most attractive growth market in the world”. Need to know: UK and Europe economyThe UK enjoyed some positive economic news to end the week with S&P Global’s PMI survey showing business activity expanding again in March to hit a score of 52.2, where 50 marks the difference between expansion and shrinking. Separate official data showed UK retail sales jumped by a more-than-expected 1.2 per cent in February, while a survey showed consumer confidence improving in March (although still in negative territory).Today’s data follows yesterday’s decision by the Bank of England to raise its key interest rate for the 11th consecutive month, this time by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.25 per cent. It left future options open but raised its GDP prediction for the second quarter to slight growth, rather than its previous estimate of a 0.4 per cent decline.The eurozone also had a good PMI result, hitting a better than expected 10-month high of 54.1, driven by growth in the services sector. The individual result for Germany, the bloc’s biggest economy, although overall positive, showed a decline in manufacturing activity. Germany’s energy regulator said the country risked running out of gas next winter. A new Big Read delves into Europe’s attempts to ramp up solar power, a sector reliant on China for raw materials and technology.Need to know: Global economyThe US PMI result also showed a decent expansion in business activity, hitting a score of 53.3, up from 50.1 in February. US investors are betting that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate rise this week will be the last for a while as bank failures help the fight against inflation by turning the screws on borrowers. Fed officials today defended their decision.Russia and Iran, both targets of western sanctions, have stepped up economic relations. Moscow has become the Islamic republic’s biggest source of overseas direct investment. Copper prices will hit a record high this year as demand from China risks depleting low stockpiles, according to Trafigura, the world’s largest private metals trader. China’s Covid-19 crackdown and property collapse was bad news for the country’s super-rich, with the country’s total wealth falling 15 per cent, according to the M3M Hurun Global Rich List. It still remains the world’s “absolute No. 1” for billionaires. Need to know: businessFT analysis showed executive pay at Silicon Valley Bank soared after it embarked on a new strategy to buy riskier assets. US business editor Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson says it’s time to ask directors at failed banks what they were up to.Commercial property loans are the latest risk worry for bank investors. Strains have increased in tandem with rising borrowing costs and analysts fear any further reductions in lending could make the situation worse.Coffee chain Starbucks is braced for a price war in China as it plans a burst of openings to hit 9,000 locations by 2025 as well as a $130mn roasting plant in Kunshan, its first in Asia.Ford said it expected to lose $3bn making electric vehicles this year. Columnist Simon Kuper says it’s about time SUVs — whether fuelled by petrol or electricity — are regulated out of existence.Join us at the Future of the Car summit on May 9-11 for analysis of the industry’s toughest challenges. Register today here.Science round-upThe world’s top scientists said global warming was “more likely than not” to result in a 1.5C rise in temperatures in an update from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here’s our round-up of recent books on climate and the environment. A report from the UK’s “hydrogen champion” said ministers should go ahead with the blending of hydrogen into the UK gas network as long as it was proved safe.The debate about the origins of Covid-19 rumbles on. The World Health Organization said data from China pointing to animals in Wuhan’s wet market as the virus source should have been shared with the world three years ago and that the findings “do not provide a definitive answer”.The WHO urged African health authorities to step up monitoring after Tanzania reported its first outbreak of Marburg virus. Marburg spreads to humans from fruit bats and is passed on through direct contact with the bodily fluids of infected patients. The scrapping of a major drug trial from Novartis has dented the UK government’s ambitions for its life sciences sector. The collaboration with the NHS on Inclisiran, a twice-yearly injectable drug for lowering cholesterol, had previously been announced to great fanfare.Our latest Tech Tonic podcast discusses the weird science at the heart of quantum computing.Another Big Read examines how new technology is enhancing soil’s ability to store carbon and help mitigate the environmental effects of industrialised farming.

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Some good newsSticking with the environmental theme, researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have come up with an open-source version of a mobile pollution detector that can be made by 3D printing, enabling much easier and cheaper tracking of air quality.© Courtesy of the researchers. Edited by MIT NewsSomething for the weekendThe FT Weekend interactive crossword will be published here on Saturday, but in the meantime why not try today’s cryptic crossword? More

It has been a frantic two weeks. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on March 10 sparked a domino effect that toppled another regional US lender, Signature Bank, spooked global markets, and led to the emergency takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS. Bank shares fell again on Friday, led by Deutsche Bank — prompting chancellor Olaf Scholz to insist there was “no reason to be concerned” about the German lender. Regulators and central banks appeared to have brought some stability this week, but it is still unclear if more dominoes will fall. The trigger for the turbulence — high interest rates — remains a threat; confidence is shaken and vulnerabilities in the banking sector could metastasise. It may not be over yet.For starters, the fallout from the past two weeks is still being cleaned up. First Republic, another US regional leader, is still tottering and shares in similar banks are under pressure amid concerns that they, like SVB, hold lots of interest rate-sensitive assets. The UBS acquisition of Credit Suisse also has repercussions. The record of shotgun bank marriages is varied, and the giant new entity will take on even greater global importance. The structure of the deal — with convertible bondholders wiped out but shareholders receiving a payout — has made investors question the hierarchy of claims in the event of bank failures. Equity is usually junior to these bonds, though Swiss regulators say small print allowed this to be overridden. Legal battles are set to follow.The authorities have acted to stem contagion in the banking sector. The US Federal Reserve’s generous liquidity scheme, concerted central bank action, and reassurances have helped. Remarks by US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen, however, sowed confusion over whether deposit insurance above the mandated $250,000 — as with the collapsed SVB and Signature Bank — would be in place if others fail, driving a sell-off in shares of smaller US banks. Interest rate risks loom beyond banks too: overleveraged sectors and investment funds with rate-sensitive assets remain exposed. Those risks could yet intensify. With the battle against inflation not yet conclusively won, central banks need to nudge rates higher. Following its 25 basis point rise midweek, the Fed indicated one more rate increase in the pipeline; the European Central Bank has even further to go. The Bank of England also lifted rates by 25bp. Recent events are a reminder that rate rises do not feed through smoothly. Indeed, Fed chair Jay Powell implied fewer increases may now be necessary as the turmoil itself helps to tighten financial conditions.Even if more banks are not toppled, there is a real risk of a broad credit squeeze. Higher interest rates have already slashed lending to the real economy, and banks are likely to raise their lending standards even further in response to recent events. Property lending appears particularly vulnerable. If credit tightens significantly, a spiral of falling prices and defaults is possible. In the US, the bulk of commercial real estate lending comes via the smaller lenders that are now under pressure. Those needing to refinance loans could face challenges. Mortgage-backed securities held by banks are already taking a hit, risking a self-reinforcing cycle.For all the fears, a crisis on the scale of 2008 remains unlikely. Bank capital is stronger now, and failures have largely been due to idiosyncratic exposures and poor management. The authorities have been reassuringly proactive in offering support. Lending standards are better now too. But a tightening of credit is inevitable; how severe is unclear. And with the recent turmoil taking root in the less-regulated regional US banking sector, it remains possible that other vulnerabilities are lurking elsewhere. Rather than a blip, this episode could be a sign of things to come. More

Britain and the EU formally adopted a post-Brexit deal on Northern Ireland on Friday, ending months of tensions on the issue and opening the door for closer co-operation between the two sides.James Cleverly, UK foreign secretary, and Maroš Šefčovič, European Commission vice-president, signed off the so-called Windsor framework at “constructive” talks in London.Cleverly said the deal on Northern Ireland’s trading arrangements would open the way for “further effective co-operation with the EU on key issues, such as security and energy”.In a joint communiqué, both sides agreed to “take forward discussions” on Britain taking part in some EU programmes, notably the EU’s €95bn Horizon research programme, and the Euratom nuclear co-operation deal.Rishi Sunak, prime minister, is still considering whether Horizon represents value for money, but British participation is highly valued by universities and scientists.MPs on Wednesday voted by 515 to 29 to approve a key part of the Windsor framework, the so-called Stormont brake, which gives the Northern Ireland assembly a say over new EU goods laws.The deal, which aims to streamline border processes on trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland and address the “democratic deficit”, has also been approved by EU member states.The Democratic Unionist party continues to oppose the revamped Northern Ireland protocol and has refused to return to the region’s Stormont assembly, but the deal will take effect anyway.Ministers hope that the DUP will lift its boycott of Stormont later this year, possibly after local elections in May. “They need time and space,” a senior UK government official said.

Cleverly and Šefčovič said they were looking for ways to build on the “excellent co-operation” that saw both sides agree a compromise last month in Windsor to end the simmering dispute.They confirmed plans to develop work on securing energy supplies, including new electricity trading arrangements, and said they would soon sign a memoranda of understanding on financial services and intellectual property.They also discussed areas of friction, including Britain’s plan to rip up swaths of EU law by the end of the year, a move which Brussels fears could distort the level playing field for trade.Both sides have also agreed to co-operate over Ukraine and to help stem the flow of illegal migration across the continent.Sunak’s resounding House of Commons victory on the Windsor framework this week is being seen by some moderate Tory MPs as a watershed moment in Britain’s post-Brexit relations with the EU. More

Federal Reserve officials on Friday defended their decision to press ahead with their monetary tightening campaign this week despite ongoing stress across the US banking sector, citing continued concerns about elevated inflation.On Wednesday the central bank raised rates by a quarter point for the second time in a row, lifting federal funds rate to a new target range of 4.75 per cent to 5 per cent, even as midsized lenders struggled to weather the fallout from the implosion of Silicon Valley Bank.“There was a lot of debate . . . but at the end of the day, what we decided was there’s clear signs that the banking system is sound and resilient,” Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Fed, said in an interview with NPR on Friday. “And with that as a backdrop, inflation is still too high.”James Bullard, president of the St Louis Fed, reiterated Bostic’s comments on price pressures, saying inflation remains “too high” and arguing the central bank was right to continue squeezing the economy since it has the tools to stabilise the financial system. “Appropriate monetary policy can continue to put downward pressure on inflation,” he said.In remarks on Friday, Bullard played down the impact of the current banking turmoil on the US economy, suggesting that it was unlikely to result in a material shock.“Financial stress can be harrowing but also tends to reduce the level of interest rates,” he said in remarks. “Lower rates, in turn, tend to be a bullish factor for the macroeconomy.” He later told reporters he puts the odds of the current bout of financial stress ending without further deterioration at 80 per cent. That means the Fed is more likely to face a hot economy and higher inflation, prompting it to “ratchet up somewhat higher as we go through 2023”, he said.Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields have declined by more than half a percentage point to 3.32 per cent since the collapse of SVB, while the two-year yield has fallen more than a percentage point to 3.63 per cent. The two-year yield in particular is sensitive to interest rate expectations, and has recorded its biggest moves since 1987 in recent weeks.Investors in the futures market on Friday have now fully priced out the possibility of an additional quarter-point increase in May. Traders also wager the Fed will be forced to cut interest rates this year — something Powell said the Fed does not expect to do.

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In the press conference that followed Wednesday’s rate decision, Fed chair Jay Powell acknowledged officials had considered pausing their campaign of rate rises in light of the recent banking turmoil, but said that ultimately an increase was “supported by a very strong consensus”.Tom Barkin, president of the Richmond Fed, told CNN on Friday that the case for raising rates this week was “pretty clear” given inflation is still “high” and demand “hadn’t seemed to come down”.But Powell this week also noted that there was still uncertainty about the extent to which a credit crunch would result from reduced activity at small and regional banks, comments that suggested the Fed could be closing in on the end of its tightening campaign.While the Fed’s policy statement noted that “some additional policy firming may be appropriate”, Powell emphasised to reporters the significance of the words “some” and “may”.Bullard told reporters on Friday he had raised his forecast for how far the Fed would lift its benchmark rate this year by a quarter of a percentage point, reflecting stronger growth in the first few months of the year. He now expects a so-called “terminal” rate of 5.6 per cent.That is higher than the median estimate pencilled in by officials this week, with most forecasting the rate peaking between 5 per cent and 5.25 per cent. It suggests just one more quarter-point rate rise, and is in line with December’s projections. More

The UK economy may be more resilient than thought in the face of rising inflation, higher borrowing costs and banking turmoil, according to data released on Friday showing that retail sales and consumer sentiment were up and business activity had expanded. The volume of retail sales, or the amount of goods sold in UK shops, increased 1.2 per cent in February, after a 0.9 per cent jump the previous month according to the Office for National Statistics. Analysts had predicted a smaller rise of 0.5 per cent. It was the first time since August 2022 that sales rose to pre-pandemic levels.Meanwhile, the closely watched monitor of private sector health, the S&P Global’s flash UK composite purchasing managers’ index, eased to 52.2 in March from 53.1 in the previous month. Despite the drop, it was still above the 50 mark, signalling that a majority of businesses had reported an expansion. The data suggest some economic resilience in the face of the multiple headwinds. On Wednesday official figures showed that UK inflation unexpectedly rose to 10.4 per cent in February, up from 10.1 per cent the previous month and not far below its October peak of 11.1 per cent. The following day, the Bank of England raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.25 per cent, marking the central bank’s 11th consecutive increase since December 2021.Global banking turmoil, with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the hasty merger of Credit Suisse and UBS, which is likely to make banks more cautious about lending, added to the challenges.Yet the figures published on Friday are “consistent with the economy faring remarkably well” in the face of those challenges, said Gabriella Dickens, economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Chris Williamson, chief economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence estimated that the PMIs were consistent with a 0.2 per cent expansion of the UK economy in the first quarter — an improvement from the stagnation of the previous three quarters. Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said in a BBC interview on Friday that he expected Britain would now avoid recession this year. “The prospects for the economy in terms of growth are better, considerably better,” he said. Bailey also urged businesses to assume lower inflation when setting prices.“But what I would say, please, is that when we are setting prices in the economy and people are looking forwards, we do expect inflation to come down sharply this year. And I would just say, please bear that in mind,” he said.His comments came as business costs grew at their slowest pace since March 2021, according to the PMI report. Survey respondents were the most optimistic about their business prospects since March 2022, which Williamson said showed “sentiment has been little affected so far by the banking sector woes”.Separate data by the research company GfK showed that UK consumer confidence ticked up 2 points from the previous month to a one-year high of minus 36 in March. However, retail sales were still down 0.3 per cent in the three months to February compared with the previous three months, following a sharp contraction in December. “The broader picture remains more subdued, with retail sales showing little real growth, particularly over the last 18 months with price rises hitting consumer spending power,” cautioned ONS director of economic statistics Darren Morgan.Moreover, sales were boosted by discount department stores and food shops as cost of living pressures led consumers to cut back on takeaways or eating out, according to the ONS. “The coming months may still be a struggle for retailers,” warned Ashley Webb, UK economist at Capital Economics. “Although the worst of the falls in real household incomes are in the past, the full drag on activity from higher interest rates has yet to be felt.” More

His words were unscripted, but they spoke volumes. When Xi Jinping bade farewell to Vladimir Putin after three days of talks in Moscow this week, he looked the Russian leader in the eye and hardened his expression with a taut grin. “Change is coming that hasn’t happened in 100 years. And we’re driving this change together,” Xi said. Putin replied: “I agree.”Xi was referencing one of his favourite slogans. “Changes unseen in a century” is well-known code in Beijing for the decline of the US-led west and the rise of China as the world’s pre-eminent power. For Xi, Russia’s war in Ukraine and the tenor of Beijing’s ties with Moscow are foremost about countering the US-led west. Their bilateral ties represent an intensifying axis of authoritarianism to oppose what Xi characterised this month as the “all-round containment, encirclement and suppression of China” by the US and its allies.“In response, China now aims to build a countering coalition,” wrote Arthur Kroeber, Yanmei Xie and Tom Miller for Gavekal Dragonomics, a consultancy specialising on China. “The alignment with Russia is the core of this coalition and the central message out of Moscow this week is that nothing . . . will weaken the China-Russia axis.”The primacy of China’s anti-western orientation explains the public messages emanating from the Xi-Putin summit. While tensions between the US and China have been clear for several years, history may assign this week a special significance. Beijing’s anti-containment strategy is building in step with its tightening embrace of Russia. While few people know what Xi told Putin during private discussions, the public readout of their meeting suggests that the Chinese leader did not apply meaningful pressure on his “dear friend” to end the war in Ukraine. A joint statement signed by Putin and Xi did not call for Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine, honour Ukraine’s internationally recognised border or even repeat the call for a ceasefire made in Beijing’s 12-point “position paper” on ending the conflict last month.Instead, it used coded language to blame Russia’s invasion on Nato expansion, saying that the “legitimate security concerns of all countries must be respected and bloc confrontation should be prevented”. Further, it demanded that the UN charter must be observed — but failed to mention Moscow’s flagrant violation of the article in that charter which says UN members should refrain from the “use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state”.China’s credibility as potential peacemaker in the crisis has quickly evaporated. Despite hopes that Xi might contact Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy by phone after his visit to Moscow, no such call has yet been made. Indeed, a few hours after Xi’s departure, Russian air strikes pounded Ukraine once again.Yu Jie, senior research fellow at Chatham House, a London-based think tank, says that since the minimum requirement for brokering peace is to be perceived as neutral and be prepared to talk to both sides, China has already discredited itself. “It would be very difficult for China to be a peace broker between Russia and Ukraine given the lack of direct contact with president Zelenskyy so far,” she adds.Several commentators go further. Jude Blanchette, China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, says that Beijing’s efforts to position itself as a peacemaker are aimed at shoring up deteriorating diplomatic relations in Europe, rather than actually altering the course of the war. China’s ultimate hope is for a Russian victory, Blanchette maintains. “A prolonged war fundamentally works against China’s own economic and diplomatic interests, but a war that ends with a Russian defeat would be a disaster for Beijing and for Xi Jinping personally,” he adds.The next test will be whether Beijing’s economic support for Moscow expands to include the supply of lethal aid. Chinese officials have denied that this is their intention. But even if they exercise restraint on weapons, China’s anti-western turn has already inflicted real collateral damage. Economic decoupling is accelerating, creating turbulence for companies operating in the world’s second largest economy.On Friday, Chinese authorities raided the Beijing offices of US due diligence firm Mintz and closed its China operations. Beijing is also notifying foreign universities and research institutions that their access to China National Knowledge Infrastructure, a crucial database, will be curtailed, academics said. Multinational carmakers, meanwhile, are rethinking their reliance on the Chinese supply chain. Apple’s manufacturing partners, such as the Taiwanese company Foxconn, are ramping up investment in production facilities in India in a bid to diversify away from an overreliance on China.The pressures motivating such decisions are unlikely to abate. In a long essay published in February on Aisixiang, the respected Chinese academic Zheng Yongnian predicted that confrontation between the PRC and the US will continue “for a long time”. “We need to be a responsible major power”, he argued, “centering on the goal of reshaping the world order.”[email protected] More

Eurozone business activity expanded faster than expected in March, driven by growth in the dominant services sector, indicating that an economic rebound from last year’s energy crisis remains on track. A survey of purchasing managers published by S&P Global on Friday pointed to an easing of supply constraints, lower input price pressures and an acceleration of jobs growth, although companies also expressed concern about banking stress and higher borrowing costs.The flash eurozone composite purchasing managers’ index, a measure of activity in manufacturing and services, rose for the fifth consecutive month to a 10-month high of 54.1 in March, up from 52 in the previous month and higher than the reading of 51.9 expected by economists. The result was based on responses collected between March 10 and March 22, with the impact on confidence of the banking turmoil that resulted in the rescue takeover of Credit Suisse by rival UBS only partially accounted for. About a third of the results were collected this week. The reading was also above the 50 mark for the third month in a row, meaning a majority of businesses in the 20-country bloc reported an increase in their activity from the previous month.“Growth has been buoyed since the lows of late last year as recession fears and energy market worries fade,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. However, he added that “stubborn inflationary pressures” indicated “more work may be needed in terms of bringing inflation down to target”.The resilient performance of the eurozone economy has boosted demand and kept price pressures elevated, contributing to the European Central Bank’s decision to raise interest rates by half a percentage point last week.The survey found a “steep rise” in input costs at services companies due to rising wages, while industrial input prices fell for the first time since July 2020, reflecting improved supply chains and lower demand.Average selling prices “continued to rise sharply”, as companies passed on more of their higher costs to customers — although the rate slowed to its lowest since May 2021. “Continued fast price increases, a still-resilient labour market and signs the economy is weathering interest rate hikes well so far, will bolster ECB hawks’ calls for the bank to continue on its steep tightening path, despite wobbles in the banking sector,” said Melanie Debono, an economist at research group Pantheon Macroeconomics.The PMI results highlighted a contrast between the improved outlook of services companies and a sharper-than-expected downturn in manufacturing. The PMI score for the services sector hit a 10-month high, while the reading for manufacturing fell to a four-month low.

Employment growth rose to a nine-month high, driven by a pick-up in hiring at services companies. Business confidence about the year ahead dipped from February’s 12-month high, which S&P Global said “could be in part traced to concerns over uncertainty caused by recent banking sector stress and the potential impact of further interest rate hikes”.Franziska Palmas, an economist at research group Capital Economics, said she still expected a eurozone recession later this year as higher interest rates hit demand, but added that a rebound in new orders recorded by the PMI survey “suggests it may take a bit longer than we anticipated for that weakening to occur”.Growth picked up in financial services and the real estate sector, as well as in consumer services, such as travel and tourism. There was also higher activity in the industrial services, IT and healthcare sectors. Stronger growth in the automotive sector, helped by easing supply constraints, was a rare bright spot amid broad stagnation in the manufacturing sector, where new orders have fallen for 11 consecutive months. More