Aurelia Butler

LONDON (Reuters) – Average asking prices for British residential property rose by just 14 pounds ($17) in February from January, the smallest rise on record for a month which normally sees a big seasonal increase, data from property website Rightmove (OTC:RTMVY) showed on Monday.Rightmove said the minimal increase – effectively zero in percentage terms – suggested that property sellers were heeding advice to price their homes realistically in order to sell them into a market which has slowed sharply in recent months.Tim Bannister, Rightmove’s director of property science, said asking prices usually rose at this time of the year, which marks the start of the spring selling season.”This month’s flat average asking price indicates that many sellers are breaking with tradition and showing unseasonal initial pricing restraint,” he said.The monthly change – which is not seasonally adjusted – was the smallest January to February move since Rightmove’s records started in 2001. Compared with a year earlier, asking prices were still 3.9% higher.At the start of February, mortgage lender Nationwide Building Society reported the longest run of monthly falls in selling prices since the global financial crisis.Asking prices remaining flat on the month, rather than falling, could be a positive sign for the housing market, suggesting a softer landing than many analysts have forecast, Rightmove said. Economists polled by Reuters in November forecast prices would fall by 5% this year, while analysts at Japanese bank Nomura predicted last month that there would be a 15% decline by mid-2024.Rightmove said there had been some recovery in demand since late 2022, when mortgage rates soared following former prime minister Liz Truss’s “mini-budget”. Buyer demand was up by 11% in the first two weeks of February compared with the same period in 2019. The number of sales agreed was down 11% on pre-pandemic levels, compared with a 30% crash just after the mini-budget. British house prices had risen by more than a quarter since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, mirroring a trend in other rich economies which reflected ultra-low interest rates and a greater desire for living space during lockdowns.Since December 2021, British interest rates have risen steeply. The Bank of England raised interest rates from 3.5% to 4% this month to tame double-digit inflation, and markets expect the main rate to peak at 4.5% in June. “The frantic market of recent years was unsustainable in the long term, and our key indicators now point to a market which is transitioning towards a more normal level of activity after the market turbulence at the end of last year,” Bannister said.($1 = 0.8363 pounds) More

(Reuters) – Australian supermarkets will reap bigger profits in fiscal 2023 half-year due to decades-high inflation and increased savings, but analysts warned of a rough second-half as households reel from mounting expenses due to higher cost of living.Top supermarket chains Woolworths Group and Coles Group (OTC:CLEGF) will likely see growth in their half-year profit, according to analyst estimates, helped by higher shelf prices and lower COVID-19 related costs.Australian households face higher grocery and energy bills due to global inflationary pressures, while budgets are further squeezed by higher mortgage payments because of the central bank’s rate hikes aiming to quell inflation. The hikes have added A$900 a month in repayments to the average A$500,000 mortgage, according to an estimate. “There’s a bit of a disconnect between confidence and reality at the moment – the confidence levels are low, but people are still spending. So I think outlook statements will be cautious” said Matthew Haupt, a lead portfolio manager whose WAM Leaders fund has holdings in Woolworths and Coles. Haupt said high household savings after the government handed out stimulus checks during the pandemic has kept Australians spending despite higher prices, but once rates peak and mortgage payments top out, retailer top-lines may shrink. Woolworths said food prices over the September quarter rose 7.3%, while Coles reported a 7.1% rise. Australia reported headline inflation of 7.8% in the December quarter, a 33-year high.A return to in-store shopping is also expected to improve margins, according to analysts at Macquarie, as in-store margins are usually better than online. Analysts at Citi also expect benefits from selling prices rising faster than cost bases.As spending power reduces over the second-half, electronics retailers were seen feeling the pinch disproportionately, as later confirmed by JB Hi-Fi reporting slower sales growth and flagging an “uncertain period” ahead.”We are concerned that the rising cost of living, fixed rate mortgage roll-offs and normalising service consumption erode consumer discretionary spending in the second half of calendar 2023,” analysts at Macquarie said. Retail conglomerate Wesfarmers’ main earner, Bunnings, reported only a slight pickup in profit and Wesfarmers relied on a recovery in Kmart, which was under lockdown in the previous period, for profit growth.Coles and Woolworths are expected to report half-yearly earnings on February 21 and 22, respectively.Brokerage estimates:1H23 estimates Woolworths Coles Macquarie A$842 million A$568 million Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) A$893 million A$542 million UBS A$871 million A$555.2 million Jefferies A$881 million A$584 million Average A$871.75 million A$562.3 million 1H22 reported A$676 million A$549 million More

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.Three central bank policy decisions dominate the economic calendar in Asia this week, as investors continue to grapple with the profound market implications of the most dramatic repricing of U.S. interest rate expectations in decades. This comes against an increasingly nervy geopolitical backdrop – Sino-U.S. relations are deteriorating over the spy balloon crisis, and the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine falls on Friday.U.S. markets are closed on Monday for Presidents Day so Asian activity and volumes will be lighter than usual. This could give traders some rare breathing space to reflect on the scorching rise in U.S. market-based rates and yields.Wall Street and global markets more broadly have held up remarkably well – the S&P 500 and MSCI World index ended the week down just 0.3%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.6%.Asia has felt the heat more. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index is down three weeks in a row, its worst run since October. Chinese stocks are down three weeks too, with last week’s fall accelerated by Friday’s 1.5% slump – the steepest this year – after Lenovo reported its largest revenue fall in 14 years.The People’s Bank of China is scheduled to set its lending benchmark interest rates on Monday morning. Many analysts expect it to keep benchmark lending rates unchanged for a sixth month, leaving the one-year loan prime rate at 3.65% and the five-year rate at 4.30%. GRAPHIC – Chinese interest rates The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to scale back its tightening on Wednesday, and raise rates by half a percentage point to 4.75%. It will then repeat the dosage by mid-year for a peak rate of 5.25%, according to a Reuters poll. The Bank of Korea on Thursday, meanwhile, is expected to keep its policy rate on hold at 3.5%, which would mark its first on-hold decision after back-to-back hikes since April. But don’t be surprised if guidance is more hawkish than last month – inflation is sticky, the U.S. policy outlook has shifted dramatically, and the won has slumped 7% in the last two weeks. GRAPHIC – New Zealand and South Korea interest rateshttps://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/movaklxyeva/RBNZBOK.jpg Other market-moving Asian economic data this week include Japanese consumer price inflation for January on Friday – expect a rise in the annual rate to a 41-year high above 4% – and final readings of Q4 Hong Kong and Taiwan GDP on Wednesday. On the corporate front, the controversy surrounding India’s Adani Group is becoming increasingly political. Reuters reported on Friday that the Indian government has told the country’s top court to examine the “truthfulness” of the allegations made against the group by U.S. short seller Hindenburg Research. Here are three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:- China interest rate decision- Indonesia current account (Q4)- Euro zone consumer confidence (February) (By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Deepa Babington) More

“No one has asked me to continue [as central bank chief] but even if they do, I think this is enough,” he said in a televised interview with Egypt’s AlQahera News on Sunday.Salameh, who became the head of the central bank in 1993, has come under increased scrutiny both at home and abroad since Lebanon’s financial system began unraveling in 2019.The collapse has locked most savers out of their bank accounts and pushed more than 80% of Lebanon’s population below the poverty line. Salameh, meanwhile, is being investigated in Lebanon and abroad for alleged embezzlement. Lebanon’s finance minister has said he would be difficult to replace once his term ends. On Sunday, Salameh said the economic crisis was due to ongoing political instability and that inadequate foreign currency reserves had prompted parallel exchange rates. Earlier this month, Lebanon officially devalued the national currency for the first time in more than two decades to 15,000 pounds to the U.S. dollar, a 90% devaluation from the previous peg of 1,507.That still lies far off the parallel market, which has hovered around a record-breaking 80,000 pounds to the U.S. dollar over the last week.Salameh on Sunday said Lebanon’s foreign exchange reserves currently measured at $10 billion and that he was in favor of unifying all exchange rates – one of the preconditions set out by the International Monetary Fund for Lebanon to get access to $3 billion in relief funds. Those preconditions also included an audit of the central bank’s foreign asset position, which includes gold. Salameh said on Sunday that Lebanon’s gold reserves were valued at $17 billion.The central bank had announced in November 2022 that a “specialized and professional international auditing firm” had completed an audit of the gold reserves but had not announced its value. More

Rishi Sunak is pressing to seal a deal with Brussels on post-Brexit Northern Ireland trade rules early this week, rejecting calls from Boris Johnson, his predecessor as prime minister, to take a more confrontational approach.Sunak’s officials held talks with their Brussels counterparts on Sunday on how to give Northern Ireland politicians a say in the application of EU law in the region, addressing a “democratic deficit”.British officials said there were still “hard yards” ahead in the talks, but Sunak hopes to agree a deal and confront Johnson and other Tory Eurosceptics with the result as early as Tuesday.“He’s focused on securing a deal that works for the people of Northern Ireland,” said one ally, noting that “really good progress” had been made in settling the bitter post-Brexit dispute with Brussels.Sunak hopes that a deal will restart Northern Ireland’s power-sharing executive, which is currently boycotted by the pro-UK Democratic Unionist party, and transform relations with the EU.UK officials left open the possibility of a breakthrough on Tuesday or possibly Wednesday. Cabinet ministers would be asked to approve the deal, which would then probably be laid out in a command paper and presented to parliament. Although Downing Street says an agreement would not “technically” have to be put to a House of Commons vote, senior Tories expect MPs to have a say, with all eyes on Johnson and Tory MPs in the pro-Brexit European Research Group.Johnson intervened in the dispute on Sunday, warning Sunak that it would be a “great mistake” to ditch the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, which would allow ministers to unilaterally override the 2020 Brexit treaty with the EU.The bill, tabled by Johnson and described by one senior EU official as “a loaded gun on the table”, is on hold in the House of Lords, and Brussels expects it to be dropped as part of a deal.Sunak’s allies said the bill would not be needed if the deal to reform the protocol resulted in a better outcome. They said the legislative measure might not be axed, but could be left to die quietly at the end of the parliamentary session.One senior Tory said Johnson was guilty of “hypocrisy”, given that, as prime minister in December 2020, he dropped a threat to break international law from the UK Internal Market Bill in a deal with the EU over the implementation of the Brexit agreement.George Osborne, former Tory chancellor, told Channel 4’s Andrew Neil on Sunday that Johnson was “interested in becoming PM again” and would use any instrument to hit Sunak “over the head”.The pro-Brexit cabinet minister Penny Mordaunt said on Sunday that any deal had to be backed by the DUP, which has set out seven tests for assessing a deal.Sunak believes his deal will meet those tests, which include no border in the Irish Sea and no checks on goods moving between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, which remains in the EU’s single market for goods.A big focus is now on the DUP’s fourth test, which party leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson has described as giving “the people of Northern Ireland a say in making the laws that govern them”. Sunak’s allies confirmed this was “an important part of what we are trying to fix”.Brussels has suggested establishing “structured dialogues between Northern Ireland stakeholders” — including the Stormont assembly — and the European Commission.Officials have talked about early consultation on legislative changes. A decision that left Northern Ireland paying tariffs on some steel imports from Great Britain could have been avoided with better co-ordination, one said.But updates to the more than 300 single market regulations in force at the time of Brexit apply automatically. While Belfast’s views will be taken into account, no one in Brussels has countenanced giving it a veto.Sunak, who held talks with EU leaders at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday said no deal was yet done, adding: “We need to find solutions to the practical problems that the protocol is causing families and business in Northern Ireland, as well as address the democratic deficit.”Edwin Poots, a former DUP leader, called the protocol in its current form “the antithesis to democracy”. In a recent interview with the FT, Poots said the democratic deficit was a major concern for unionists. More

Hello and welcome to the working week. Friday marks the first anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, an event that shocked the world by bringing large-scale conflict to European soil. US president Joe Biden’s visit to Poland at the start of the week will serve as a show of strength to Ukrainian and Nato allies in the face of Russia’s long-expected spring offensive.The EU’s Foreign Affairs Council meeting on Monday will focus on the war and it will be the keynote item at Friday’s UN Security Council meeting in New York. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy may travel to Manhattan to address the assembled delegates. The Financial Times has a special magazine issue marking the anniversary of the war featuring essays by our Ukrainian correspondent Christopher Miller and academic Mary Elise Sarotte, alongside a powerful picture package by Ukrainian photographers.Henry Foy examines how western governments have provided more than $110bn in support to Kyiv since last February — $38bn in the form of weapons — and how the reality of maintaining these numbers is only just beginning to dawn on the west. The UK’s winter of industrial unrest rumbles on. Staff at more than 150 higher education institutions will walk out in a long-running dispute over pay and conditions while regional ambulance staff in England and Northern Ireland will hold various strikes this week.FT Live holds a free online event, the Future of Business Education: Spotlight on MBA, on Wednesday, where the FT’s global education editor and business education rankings manager, will share details about how the best business schools are rated. Click here to register.As ever your comments and suggestions about items are appreciated. For this edition, email me at [email protected] or if you received this email in your inbox just hit reply. Jonathan will be back next week. Economic dataGross domestic product is the main US data point on Tuesday and minutes from the last Federal Reserve’s meeting land on Wednesday. UK public-sector borrowing figures for January are out on Tuesday. Increases in debt interest and spending on energy support schemes made last month’s release the highest monthly total since records began in January 1993. Turkey’s central bank announces interest rates on Thursday. CompaniesUK banks will stay in the spotlight. Last week NatWest announced an almost tripling of profits driven by higher interest rates. These should also boost profits for HSBC and Lloyds Banking Group when they report on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively, but these revenue channels are looking increasingly exhausted. Several miners report this week, including Newmont, the world’s largest gold miner, which launched an all-share $17bn bid for Australian rival Newcrest earlier this month. Global demand for gold is surging as central banks and investors shelter from persistent inflation and geopolitical upheaval. Key economic and company reportsHere is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.MondayEU, December construction output figures EU, Consumer confidence data UK, Sam Woods, deputy governor for Prudential Regulation and chief executive of the Prudential Regulation Authority, speaks at the Association of British Insurers Annual DinnerUK, Office for National Statistics publishes its evidence review on hidden homelessness TuesdayEU, S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash dataEU, Zew Economic Sentiment IndexUK, S&P Global/Cips Services and Manufacturing PMI Flash data UK, CBI Industrial Trends ordersResults: Standard Chartered FY; HSBC FY; Antofagasta FY; InterContinental Hotels FY; Home Depot. Q4; Medtronic Q3; Palo Alto Networks Q2; Capgemini FY; Engie FY; Coinbase FYWednesdayFrance, Business confidence data Germany, January harmonised index of consumer price inflation data Italy, January consumer price index (CPI) inflation data US, Federal Reserve Bank of New York president John Williams participates in a fireside chat on Taming Inflation before the hybrid Credibility of Government Policies conferenceResults: Lloyds FY; Nvidia FY; Stellantis FY; Baidu Q4; Danone FY; Ebay Q4; Garmin FY; Etsy FY; Domino’s Pizza Q4; Rio Tinto FYThursdayUK, Keynote speech at the Resolution Foundation in London by Catherine L Mann: ‘The result of rising rates: Expectations, lags and the result of rising rates’.UK, Bank of England deputy governor Jon Cunliffe speaks on cross-border payments at a meeting of G20 officialsUS, unemployment claims US, Q4 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index Results: Alibaba Group Q3; Deutsche Telekom Q4; Intuit Q2; American Tower Q4; Dr Pepper Snapple Group Q4; Budweiser Q4; CBRE FY; Warner Bros Discovery Q4; BAE Systems FY; Telefónica FY; Coterra Q4; Live Nation FY; Serco FY; Drax FY; Rolls-Royce FY; Spectris FY; Greencoat UK FY; Morgan Sindall FY; Qantas Q2; Anglo American FY; Newmont FYFridayFrance, Q4 GDP dataGermany, Q4 GDP dataJapan, January consumer price index (CPI) inflation dataUK, April-June 2022 housebuilding data released UK, Cost of living and higher education students, England (Scolis) data: January 30 to February 13US, data on new home salesResults: Jupiter Asset Management FY; International Consolidated Airlines Group FY; OCBC FY; CIBC Q1; Endesa FY; Holcim Group FY; Amadeus FY; PKN Orlen FYWorld eventsFinally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week. MondayIsrael, the Knesset holds the first reading of a contentious legal reform billSpain, the International Renewable Energy Conference begins in MadridUN World Day of Social JusticeUS, George Washington’s birthday marks Presidents’ Day where a federal holiday is observedTuesdayBelgium, meeting of the EU General Affairs Council in BrusselsItaly, Venice Carnival ends Sweden, EU energy ministers meet until Wednesday in StockholmUK, London Fashion Week endsUnesco International Mother Language Day promoting linguistic and cultural diversityUS, Mardi Gras parade and celebrations in New Orleans, LouisianaUS, Supreme Court releases orders and hears oral arguments WednesdayIndia, Finance ministers of G20 countries and their central bank chiefs begin a summit in Bengaluru until SaturdayIndonesia, China’s foreign minister Qin Gang visits Jakarta Japan, the Emperor’s Birthday (Naruhito) is marked with a public holidaySouth Africa, finance minister Enoch Godongwana presents the 2023 budgetUS, UN Security Council to meet on Somalia US, First Lady Jill Biden begins a trip to Africa with stops in Namibia and KenyaThursdaySpain, energy minister Teresa Ribera to speak at economy forum in MadridUS, UN Security Council to meet on co-operation between the UN and EUFridayMalaysia, national budgetSaturdayNigeria, elections to the Nigerian presidency, Senate and House of Representatives US, the 2023 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) Finance and Central Bank Deputies’ meetingSundaySouth Africa, ICC Women’s T20 Cricket World Cup final in Cape TownUK, Manchester United play Newcastle United in the Carabao Cup Final at Wembley Stadium More

MUNICH (Reuters) – Slow German government export approvals are holding up Airbus Defence & Space defence exports worth several billions of euros, the company’s chief executive said on Sunday, urging Berlin to speed up the process.”Several countries are interested in the (military transport plane) A400M. Unfortunately we are having difficulties to get the German export licences on time,” Michael Schoellhorn told Reuters in an interview at the Munich Security Conference.”Our problem is that we haven’t received any contracts yet from the Zeitenwende and important exports are not being approved. This puts us in a very unsatisfactory situation,” Schoellhorn said.He was referring to a 100-billion-euro ($107 billion) special fund set up last year to bring the military back up to scratch after Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a “Zeitenwende” or sea change in security policy days into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”We cannot put up with the constant delays (in export procedures). Planning security is essential,” Schoellhorn said.He said orders for several products, not only the A400M, were stuck with the government in Berlin but declined to give details – although he offered a rough estimate of the financial volume.”In total, we are talking about several billion euros,” he said.On the loss-making A400M, Schoellhorn said he expected no further significant charges due to industrial problems in future if developments continued as they had in the past years, after Airbus results showed another 500-million-euro charge on Thursday.He added that the company should eventually receive partial payments that customers held back.Asked whether in future space developments Europe will have to fall back on Elon Musk’s SpaceX company following Airbus Defence & Space’s loss of two satellites on a Vega C rocket, Schoellhorn said any such solution would be temporary.”Depending on the mission, we will have to temporarily use other launchers, whether they will come from SpaceX or somewhere else we will have to see,” he said. “But we don’t want to do this over the long haul.” (This story has been refiled to add dropped name in paragraph 2) More