Aurelia Butler

NEW YORK (Reuters) – JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM)’s head of trading sees China as its largest potential overseas market as the bank aims to expand its international business.”China is by far the biggest opportunity for us,” Troy Rohrbaugh, JPMorgan’s head of global markets, told investors at a conference. “We continue to invest as we did previously, obviously cautiously. We’re ready to adjust if necessary.”China’s reopening, and its impact on global growth, is being watched closely by economists and business leaders. Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan’s chief executive officer, told Reuters in an interview last week that he was planning to visit the country. Rohrbaugh also highlighted the rapid pace of change in the Middle East, and particularly Dubai, which has attracted capital and businesses relocating from Asia.More broadly, Rohrbaugh expects markets to be dominated by uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s path of interest-rate increases aimed at curbing inflation.”Volatility is going to remain elevated, particularly in macro products,” he said. Meanwhile, debt and equity capital markets were faring better than expected despite concerns about an economic slowdown.Traders in fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC)bolstered bank profits last year as dealmakers lagged.JPMorgan’s fixed-income revenue climbed 12% to $3.7 billion in the fourth quarter, fueled by rising revenue in rates, currencies and emerging markets. In 2022, the markets division posted its second-highest annual revenue. More

World Bank president David Malpass will step down from his post at the end of June, nearly a year before his term expires. The bank issued a statement on Wednesday saying Malpass, who was appointed to his position by former US president Donald Trump, had informed the board of his decision to step down after four years “to pursue new challenges”. “It has been an enormous honour and privilege to serve as president of the world’s premier development institution alongside so many talented and exceptional people,” Malpass said in a statement. The US and other big World Bank shareholders have been pressing the institution over the past year to step up efforts on tackling global challenges, including climate change, alongside its traditional mandate of tackling global poverty.Earlier this month US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen stepped up pressure on the World Bank by urging it to “quickly” enact reforms to free up more money to address climate change, among other global challenges.Five more stories in the news1. Xinjiang governor cancels Brussels and London visits The governor of Xinjiang, where about 1mn Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities have been under detention, has cancelled his visit to Europe, following an outcry from politicians and activists. British parliamentarians and human rights groups strongly criticised ministers for granting Erkin Tuniyaz an official meeting.2. US risks defaulting on debt this summer, agency warns The US government risks an unprecedented default as soon as July if the debt ceiling is not raised, the Congressional Budget Office has warned amid a growing war of words between the White House and congressional Republicans over lifting the borrowing limit. 3. Sturgeon quits as Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon announced her resignation yesterday after a backlash over her strategy for securing independence and controversy over proposed gender laws. A thorn in the side of UK prime ministers for almost a decade, Sturgeon led the pro-independence Scottish National party to repeated electoral success. Get the latest: Sign up to our Inside Politics newsletter4. Elderly in China protest against health insurance reforms Tens of thousands of Chinese pensioners took to the streets yesterday to protest against health insurance reforms that were introduced as cash-strapped city governments sought to control spending in the aftermath of China’s costly zero-Covid policy. Video footage obtained by the Financial Times showed the mostly elderly demonstrators facing off against hundreds of police.5. China launches corruption probe into football association chief The president of the Chinese Football Association is being investigated by the Communist party’s feared anti-corruption agency for suspected “serious violations of discipline and law”, according to a government statement. The probe is the latest setback for President Xi Jinping’s ambitions of turning the nation into a soccer powerhouse.More on the business of sport: The Iranian-American billionaire Jahm Najafi is preparing a blockbuster $3.75bn takeover bid for Tottenham Hotspur, the Premier League football club, according to two people with direct knowledge of the plans. Join us in Singapore on March 16 at our inaugural Wealth Management Summit to discuss how best to scale up while navigating geopolitical tensions, regulatory shifts, and investment risks. Register today.The days aheadEngland begin Test series against New Zealand The Black Caps will host England in the first of two matches between the teams this month. Today’s match is set for 1am GMT/2pm local time at the Bay Oval cricket ground in Mount Maunganui.Japan trade balance figures January data are set to be released this morning. Earnings Commerzbank, Nestlé, Orange, Paramount, Pernod Ricard, Renault and Standard Chartered will report results today. Correction: Yesterday’s newsletter incorrectly stated the date of Tui’s latest earnings. The H3 rocket launch in Japan was also delayed until Friday.What else we’re reading SoftBank’s future rests on Arm Following a historic selldown in Alibaba, an investment on which Masayoshi Son built his name as one of the world’s greatest technology visionaries, Arm now accounts for a bigger percentage of SoftBank’s net asset value than the Chinese ecommerce group. The question is whether Son is now going on an offensive to make sure that Arm’s initial public offering, most likely in the US, succeeds.‘Big Bang 2.0’: Reviving the City of London Ministers and financiers hope a series of proposals to loosen EU-derived rules can be a blueprint for the post-Brexit era, and there is political pressure to show that leaving the EU has brought benefits. But can the reforms make London more competitive against rival financial capitals?

Syrians left to fend for themselves after quake The international community responded immediately to the devastating February 6 earthquake by sending hundreds of millions of dollars in supplies and rescue teams to disaster-hit southern Turkey. But in the rebel-held Syrian town of Jinderes, no international aid arrived for nearly a week.A war for climate talent is hotting up As competition for green business experts grows, financial firms are snapping up staff from environmental non-profit groups at a pace — and price — that industry veterans say is striking. Globally, demand for green talent and skills has been outstripping supply.A year of war in Ukraine has left Europe’s armouries dry Conversations between western defence ministers are littered with furrowed brows and anxious looks: how long can we sustain this level of support for Ukraine, and with what? Europe’s factories are barely able to make enough shells to supply a week’s worth of Ukraine’s needs.Thank you to readers who took our poll yesterday. A majority of respondents said they do find meaning in their work. See the breakdown of the results below.

Take a break from the newsCalling strong retired chess players: now is your chance to represent England. Nigel Povah, the team manager, hopes that former talents will be interested in representing in the 50-plus and 65-plus categories. Here’s how to be considered for selection. More

US retail sales increased sharply in January, the latest in a series of hotter than expected economic data that may force the Federal Reserve to keep tightening monetary policy for longer to slow the American economy.Retail sales, which include spending on food and fuel, rose 3 per cent last month over December’s levels, the Census Bureau said on Wednesday. It was one of the biggest monthly increases of the past 20 years and surpassed economists’ expectations for a 1.8 per cent increase.The data, which included signs that American consumers have not pulled back spending on discretionary items despite high inflation, came a day after the labour department published inflation figures that showed price pressures were not easing as much as they were late last year.It also follows a labour department report on non-farm payrolls, which showed that hiring nearly doubled in January, with the US economy adding more than a half million jobs in the month — up from 223,000 in December.Fed chair Jay Powell has repeatedly warned that the central bank will need to keep rates high to fight off inflation: the consumer price index rose at a rate of 6.4 per cent in January compared with a year ago.But in recent months financial markets have signalled that investors believe the Fed will be able to take its foot off the brake by the end of 2023 because of quickly moderating price data.However, February’s spate of strong data has triggered a reversal in market sentiment. On Wednesday morning, the rate-sensitive two-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level since early November, though subsequently reversed some of that move and was flat at 4.63 per cent in late afternoon trading.The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, rose to its highest level since early January. US stocks were positive overall, with the blue-chip S&P 500 closing 0.3 per cent higher and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite adding 0.9 per cent.

Wednesday’s retail sales report showed that higher borrowing costs, driven up by the Fed’s aggressive year-long campaign to increase interest rates, and persistent inflation have yet to put Americans off shopping.But there was “unlikely” to be a sustained recovery in sales, according to Oren Klachkin at Oxford Economics. While it might take time for spending to soften, cooling job and wage growth and “stubborn” inflation would ultimately weigh down consumers’ willingness to spend.“For the Fed, these data are supportive of their view that additional rate hikes are needed to cool the economy and bring the inflation down to 2 per cent,” he said.January’s reading indicated a strong recovery from the holiday month, which had reported the biggest monthly decrease in retail sales since December 2021. The figures are not adjusted for inflation.Spending at petrol stations remained flat from December but was still up 5.7 per cent from a year ago even as prices at the pump have moderated.The so-called retail control group, which excludes building materials, motor vehicle parts and petrol station sales, increased 1.7 per cent, topping economists’ expectations for a 0.8 per cent increase.James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, said January’s increase in sales was spurred along by warmer weather that encouraged consumers to leave their homes and spend.“We have to be a little cautious that with weather patterns returning to more seasonal norms in February we could get a significant correction next month — especially with household finances remaining under pressure from high inflation and slowing wage growth.”Additional reporting by Kate Duguid in New York More

The US government risks an unprecedented default as soon as July if the debt ceiling is not raised, the Congressional Budget Office has warned amid a growing war of words between the White House and congressional Republicans over lifting the borrowing limit.The CBO, a non-partisan government agency that analyses fiscal policy for Congress, projected on Wednesday that if the debt ceiling, the legal limit on the government’s borrowing, is unchanged, the government’s “ability to borrow using extraordinary measures will be exhausted between July and September 2023”.The exact timing for the cliff edge is dependent in part on income tax receipts due in April. The CBO noted that if these receipts fall short of current estimates, the Treasury could “run out of funds” before July.Treasury secretary Janet Yellen told Congress in January that the department had begun taking “extraordinary measures” to meet its obligations after running up against the $31.4tn borrowing limit. Yellen has previously said it is “unlikely” the government will run out of money before “early June”, although independent economists have offered a range of estimates about when the US will run up against a possible default.The CBO warned that if the debt limit is not raised or suspended, and the government is unable to pay its obligations in full, the Treasury would either need to delay making some payments, default on its debt obligations, or both.The CBO forecasts are the latest warning to lawmakers over the risks of not raising the debt ceiling. The Biden White House has called on Congress to lift the borrowing limit without conditions, while Republican lawmakers have sought to tie raising the debt ceiling to sweeping budget cuts.Each side has accused the other of acting irresponsibly, raising fears of a stalemate in a sharply divided Washington that could have wide-reaching repercussions for markets and investors. Lawmakers narrowly averted a default in 2011, but only after an S&P downgrade to the government’s creditworthiness and a market rollercoaster.On Wednesday, President Joe Biden delivered a speech accusing the Republicans of pushing proposals that would add $3tn to the national debt over the next decade, and insisting that his forthcoming budget would cut the deficit by $2tn over the same period.

But Kevin McCarthy, the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives who has come under pressure to lay out his own budget proposal, shot back, accusing Democrats of “reckless spending” that was “jeopardising our economy”.“That’s why we must negotiate a responsible debt limit increase that gets our fiscal house back in order,” McCarthy added.The CBO issued its warning alongside a report on the federal budget and economic outlook for the next decade. The watchdog projected that the federal budget deficit would total $1.4tn this year, with annual deficits averaging $2tn over the next decade. The CBO said the “cumulative deficit” over the coming decade would be $3tn higher than previously forecast, in large part due to recent legislation and the rising cost of borrowing.“Over the long term, our projections suggest that changes in fiscal policy must be made to address the rising costs of interest and mitigate other adverse consequences of high and rising debt,” said Phillip Swagel, the CBO director. More

Today’s top storiesNicola Sturgeon resigned as Scotland’s first minister and leader of the Scottish National party. The EU will hit Russia with trade bans and tech export controls worth €11bn as part of its 10th package of sanctions ahead of the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24.Iranian-American billionaire Jahm Najafi is preparing a blockbuster $3.75bn takeover bid for Tottenham Hotspur, the Premier League football club. A consortium of investors will put in 70 per cent and backers from the Gulf, mainly from Abu Dhabi, will contribute the rest.For up-to-the-minute news updates, visit our live blogGood evening.Today’s UK data shows inflation falling in January, hot on the heels of fresh numbers from the US, and adds to growing evidence that price pressures in the global economy have peaked.Consumer price inflation fell more than expected to 10.1 per cent from 10.5 per cent in December. Core inflation, which strips out volatile items such as food and energy costs, also declined more than forecast, dropping from 6.3 per cent to 5.8 per cent. The new data boosted expectations that the Bank of England will pause its monetary tightening programme in the next few months. Earlier this month the BoE forecast that headline inflation will fall sharply for the rest of the year as energy prices drop, but it was pessimistic about the outlook for growth.The fall in inflation is little solace to British workers, whose wages are still far behind. Data yesterday showed that regular pay, excluding bonuses, rose at a rate of 6.7 per cent in the last quarter of 2022. Public sector workers are still faring the worst — their wages grew at just 4.2 per cent compared with 7.3 per cent for the private sector — explaining some of the anger behind the current wave of industrial unrest. The overall labour market remains tight, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7 per cent.On the positive side, the cost of some fixed-rate mortgages is set to drop after the BoE suggested inflation may come under control sooner than expected. The picture across the Atlantic is also one of falling inflation and a still-strong jobs market. New data yesterday showed consumer prices rose 6.4 per cent in January, a slight slowdown from the previous month but higher than economists had expected. It follows unexpectedly strong jobs numbers, which have fuelled expectations that the Fed might have to keep tightening monetary policy for longer, a view reinforced today by strong retail sales figures. Optimism on the economy also remains strong among executives at Wall Street’s biggest banks, as belief grows that the Fed can engineer a “soft landing”.In the eurozone, the first estimate for inflation in January was 8.5 per cent, but this could be revised upwards following the addition of delayed data from Germany, the bloc’s dominant economy.The region’s labour market also remains strong, with the unemployment rate in December at its lowest since records began in 1995.Browse our global inflation tracker to see how countries compare on rising prices.Need to know: UK and Europe economyBoE policymaker Jonathan Haskel said Brexit had cost the UK £29bn in business investment and worsened the country’s productivity problem. Our Big Read examines whether “Big Bang 2.0” financial reforms can revive the City of London in the post-Brexit era. London and Brussels are edging towards a deal on Northern Ireland’s trading arrangements.Brussels has urged EU capitals to unblock talks over reforming the union’s budget rules as it tries to focus on policies such as the green transition.Need to know: Global economyPakistan is raising taxes on luxury imports and cigarettes to secure approval for a $6.5bn IMF loan and stave off a foreign debt crisis.Latin American leaders have snubbed pleas from US and Europe to send weapons to Ukraine even though Washington had offered to replace their ageing Russian-made kit with superior American systems. Container shipping costs on important global trade routes have fallen 85 per cent since their pandemic peak and widespread bottlenecks have subsided. Behind the drop is a decline in demand for goods — 90 per cent of which reach retailers by ship. However, chief economics commentator Martin Wolf says that global trade has another hurdle to overcome: the threat of government interventionism.Another Big Read examines a topic often billed as a post-pandemic solution for the real estate sector in the US: Is it feasible for New York City to turn empty offices into condos? Need to know: businessFord is cutting 3,800 jobs across Europe as it pares back its range of models ahead of the switch to electric vehicles. The EU said trucks and coaches would have to cut emissions to near zero by 2040 but was criticised by green campaigners who argue the target is not ambitious enough.There were more encouraging signs regarding the recovery in the travel industry. TripAdvisor and Airbnb both reported strong results, while Air India is buying 250 planes from Airbus in one of the world’s biggest aviation deals, boosting hopes that India could become an international hub.Amazon is to double down on its move into physical grocery stores, despite recently announcing that its growth plans were on hold. Five years since buying Whole Foods for $13.7bn, the company has yet to disrupt the $1.6tn US grocery sector. The EU, meanwhile, is investigating Amazon’s purchase of Roomba-maker iRobot over the autonomous vacuum cleaner’s ability to take pictures as it moves around a home.It has been revealed that LockBit, the hacking group that targeted Royal Mail, demanded a ransom of £65.7mn that the company has refused. The hackers are threatening to release large amounts of Royal Mail data.Apple is having problems increasing production in India as it attempts to reduce its reliance on China. The rewards could be substantial: consultancy Bain estimates manufacturing exports from India could more than double from $418bn in 2022 to more than $1tn in 2028, with electronics exports alone growing at an annual rate of up to 40 per cent.Miner and commodity trader Glencore reported record earnings of $34bn, highlighting how trading houses have been among the biggest beneficiaries of the energy crisis. The World of WorkAllen & Overy is introducing a chatbot powered by the same AI behind ChatGPT to “support” its lawyers in creating contracts. It’s an early indication of how the AI revolution could hit certain professions.With hybrid working set to stay, many UK workers are being caught up in “complicated and inconsistent” tax rules. Experts have urged the government to reform the laws, especially around topics such as the tax treatment of office equipment to be used at home.It’s possible to hate your job but still love your work, writes columnist Sarah O’Connor, or as one health worker puts it: “We absolutely love what we do but have been broken by the lack of infrastructure, investment and decades of ‘do more with less’.”The latest Working It podcast discusses the pros and cons of pay transparency. Some good newsA UK toddler with a rare medical condition called MLD has become the first child to be treated by the NHS with a new life-saving gene therapy called Libmeldy. The one-off treatment costs £2.75mn and is the most expensive medicine ever approved by the NHS. UK readers can watch a film about the cutting-edge treatment on BBC iPlayer. More

Sterling suffered a heavy decline on Wednesday, slipping to its lowest level in six weeks against the dollar as a sharper than expected slowdown in UK inflation eased the pressure on the Bank of England to keep raising interest rates.The pound dropped as much as 1.5 per cent to $1.198, a level last touched in early January. The moves followed the release of data showing UK inflation fell to a five-month low of 10.1 per cent in January from 10.5 per cent the previous month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a drop to 10.3 per cent. The currency’s decline reflects a growing conviction among investors that the BoE might be about to pause its monetary tightening cycle, and comes as strong US economic data fuels bets that the Federal Reserve may have further work to do to rein in inflation.“There seems to be a divide opening up between what’s going on in the UK and the US,” said Jordan Rochester, a foreign exchange strategist at Nomura. “US inflation came in hot, there’s no other way to put it, but the UK might be in a situation where inflation falls more quickly than expected as consumers pull back spending.” In contrast with the UK, US inflation was higher than expected in January, with consumer prices rising at an annual rate of 6.4 per cent against a forecast of 6.2 per cent. The dollar strengthened as a result, while futures markets priced in a higher peak interest rate. The world’s de facto reserve currency has slipped 8.8 per cent over the past four and a half months but has rallied so far in February following a recent run of strong US economic data.

The BoE earlier this month raised rates by half a percentage point to 4 per cent, but hinted that the increase might be its last. A combination of a “dovish shift in policy guidance from the BoE” and a “hawkish repricing of Fed policy” has weighed on the pound, said analysts at MUFG.The fall in sterling helped London’s FTSE 100 stock benchmark hit an all-time high on Wednesday, touching 8,000 points for the first time. The index, which is packed with multinational companies earning much of their revenue overseas, tends to benefit when the UK currency weakens.Sterling’s latest decline still leaves it far above the all-time low of less than $1.04 it struck in September at the height of the gilts crisis, when former prime minister Liz Truss’s borrowing plans and a crisis in the pensions sector undermined investor confidence in the UK. More