Aurelia Butler

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    Wolfe Research predicts stronger dollar, lower interest rates in 2025

    The report outlined the reasons behind the firm’s belief in the dollar’s continued strength. Wolfe Research had initially identified a stronger U.S. dollar as a primary investment theme at the beginning of the year. The firm’s stance remains unchanged, as they foresee the currency gaining further ground.Wolfe Research also addressed the future of interest rates, particularly the U.S. 10-year yield, which has been primarily driven by the term premium since mid-September of 2024. The firm anticipates that rates will gradually decrease throughout 2025. This forecast is based on inflation moving closer to the Fed’s 2% target, which could lead to additional rate cuts, and a reduction in term premiums following a significant increase due to concerns over Trump Administration policies.In light of the expected stronger dollar, Wolfe Research has provided a screening of S&P 500 companies that generate a high percentage of their revenue from outside the United States. These companies could potentially experience weaker growth due to the currency implications.The report serves as a guide for investors who might be considering the impact of currency strength and interest rate changes on their portfolios, specifically targeting companies with significant international exposure that may be affected by these macroeconomic trends.This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C. More

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    in Cryptocurrency

    Abu Dhabi firm invests $5 million in crypto exchange GRVT

    The investment follows GRVT’s recent acquisition of a Class M Digital Asset Business License from the Bermuda Monetary Authority, positioning it as the world’s first regulated decentralized exchange (DEX).GRVT’s Mainnet Alpha, launched last month, reported a 30-day trading volume of nearly $1.3 billion, with a record 24-hour trading volume of $88 million. These figures underscore the platform’s growing traction and its commitment to compliant and innovative DeFi solutions in the region.The strategic investment by Further Ventures, a prominent player in capital markets infrastructure, highlights their belief in GRVT’s vision and its potential to innovate in the financial sector. This partnership aims to bolster the development of institutional-grade on-chain investment products in the Middle East.Further Ventures will support GRVT in areas such as product development, legal and regulatory compliance, talent acquisition, and business expansion. This collaboration is expected to enhance GRVT’s offerings to both retail and institutional traders in the Middle East, and it aligns with the exchange’s ambition to obtain an Abu Dhabi Global Market capital markets license.Hong Yea, Co-Founder and CEO of GRVT, expressed enthusiasm for the partnership with Further Ventures, which he believes will be pivotal in the exchange’s growth and expansion into Abu Dhabi’s dynamic crypto ecosystem. Mohamed Hamdy, Managing Partner at Further Ventures, commended GRVT’s approach to combining decentralized finance (DeFi) with traditional finance (TradFi) principles, emphasizing compliance and self-custody.This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C. More

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    in Economy

    Funds start Trump 2.0 era most bullish on dollar since 2016: McGeever

    ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) -As Donald Trump begins his second term as U.S. president, currency speculators are giving the dollar their strongest backing since before he was first given keys to the White House.The question now is whether this signals more USD strength ahead or marks the peak of the current cycle for the “mighty dollar”, as Trump referred to the greenback late last year.The bullish dollar trade has had a remarkable run since late September when investors began betting on a stronger U.S. economy, ‘higher for longer’ U.S. interest rates, and a Trump victory. In the three and a half months since then, Commodity Futures Trading Commission funds have flipped a leveraged net short dollar position against major and key emerging market currencies worth around $15 billion to a leveraged net long position worth over $35 billion. That’s the biggest ‘long’ since January 2016. A long position is essentially a bet that an asset will rise in value, and a short position is a wager its price will fall.At the same time, the dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s value against its G10 peers, rose 10% to its highest level in more than two years, posting multi-year peaks against sterling and the Canadian dollar as well as record highs against emerging market currencies like the Brazilian real and Indian rupee.As the ‘Trump 2.0′ era begins, the dollar index is some 20% higher than its average over the past quarter of a century and at levels rarely seen since the 1980s. As Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY)’s Kit Juckes notes, the dollar might be “mighty” but may also be “getting a little bit ahead of itself.”TARIFF TENSIONS COOL?Analysts at Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) agree, announcing on Friday that they were turning bearish on the dollar and recommend selling it against the euro, sterling and yen. They argue that most of the economic fundamentals and dynamics that have strengthened the dollar recently – and there have been many – are fully priced into the dollar’s exchange rate or even over-priced in some cases.They suggest that Treasury yields have topped out, the “U.S. exceptionalism” narrative has little juice left in it, investors are too optimistic on the size and scope of Trump’s dollar-friendly tariffs, and the doom and gloom surrounding Europe’s fortunes is overdone.Put all that together, and the near-term outlook for the dollar isn’t all that rosy, at least from a tactical if not long-term fundamental perspective, especially with fund and investor positioning so one-sided.As Morgan Stanley’s FX strategists wrote on Friday, “we acknowledge that there is considerable uncertainty about the sequencing and outcome of U.S. policy. But in the near term, we think the asymmetric risk clearly favors dollar weakness alongside lower yields.”Their take on the dollar certainly isn’t unanimous. For example, analysts at Goldman Sachs last week upgraded their bullish dollar outlook citing continued U.S. economic outperformance, supportive Treasury yields, and the belief that the dollar-positive impact of Trump’s expected tariffs has not yet fully been priced in.Still, given speculators’ stretched dollar positions, it might not take much to send the “mighty dollar” sliding from this lofty height.And right on cue, a Trump administration official on Monday said that tariffs will not be slapped on U.S. trading partners immediately. This pushed the dollar down more than 1%, putting it on track for its worst day since August. (The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters) (By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Andrea Ricci) More

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    in Cryptocurrency

    New Trump coins ‘represent risk to bipartisan crypto legislation’: TD’s Seiberg

    According to the analyst, the Democrats are expected to seek detailed information on the purchasers of the coins, potentially to determine if foreign governments or businesses used the tokens to gain favor with the Trump team.“This puts at risk the ability to advance the crypto bill with the bipartisan support it will need to become law,” Seiberg said in a note.He pointed out that the introduction of the Trump coin might lead to increased demands from Democrats for transparency regarding the buyers and the reasons behind the coin’s price increase.“They will be searching for indications that foreign governments, foreign businesses and domestic companies are using the coin to influence Trump’s decision-making. They also will demand details on how the Trump family is monetizing this investment,” Seiberg explained.In turn, Republicans will likely respond to these inquiries, the analyst added, potentially increasing partisan tensions and complicating the pursuit of a bipartisan agreement on the crypto market structure.“We also do not expect the Trump family or the Trump administration to cooperate with any Democratic investigations,” he added.Seiberg suggests that a possible solution to this impasse could be a two-pronged strategy where Democrats conduct an investigation into the Trump coin separately from the legislative efforts. Such an approach might allow for the continuation of the market structure bill’s progress while addressing concerns about the Trump family’s cryptocurrency venture.Despite these complications, Seiberg believes that the passage of the crypto market structure bill may already have been delayed until 2026 due to both parties focusing on fundraising for the midterm elections. This delay could provide Democrats with sufficient time to complete their investigation into the Trump coin before the market structure legislation is put to a vote.Trump coins and Bitcoin experienced a downturn on Tuesday after President Trump’s initial policy announcements omitted any mention of digital assets.Bitcoin, which hit an all-time high of $109,071 on Monday during Trump’s inauguration, fell to $103,740.0 on Tuesday. The meme coin $TRUMP, launched just days prior, saw a similar pattern, climbing from $6.50 at launch to $74.59 on Monday before retreating to $39.56. More

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    in Economy

    ECB’s Villeroy: US move to leave Paris climate deal regrettable, unsurprising

    “We regret Mr. Trump’s announcement to leave the Paris Agreement, which was not a surprise,” Villeroy, who is also the French central bank chief, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV from the annual gathering in Davos, Switzerland.Even before Trump returned to office on Monday, the U.S. Federal Reserve withdrew from the Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System, a group launched in 2017 to police environmental risks in finance. But Villeroy said the group, which still has more than 140 members, “is more committed and active than ever.” More

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    in Economy

    Sri Lanka’s inflation drops to minus 2% in December

    Prices in the food category moved to minus 1.0% after posting 0.0% in November. In the non-food category, prices changed to minus 2.9% on the month from minus 3.1% in November.Inflation is likely to remain low in the next six months after Sri Lanka reduced its household power tariffs by 20% earlier this month. Under the latest revision, industries will get a reduction of 30% while businesses in the tourism sector, a key foreign exchange earner for the island nation, will see their power prices slump by 31%. “We are likely to see inflation reach positive territory of about 2%-3% by mid-year,” said Shehan Cooray, head of research at Acuity Stockbrokers.Sri Lanka’s central bank also expects inflation to reach their target of 5% by mid-2025. Sri Lanka suffered record inflation after its worst financial crisis in decades triggered by a record fall in dollar reserves pummeled the economy in 2022.Helped by a $2.9 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) program the island nation has posted a rebound and is estimated to have grown by 5% last year, latest central bank data showed. More

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    in Cryptocurrency

    Ethereum loses traction amid Solana and Bitcoin surge

    The Ether-to-Bitcoin price ratio, a measure of the second-largest token’s performance against the largest, dropped to its lowest level since 2021 on Monday, according to data analyzed by Bloomberg. During the same period, Bitcoin reached a record high of $109,241. Meanwhile, Solana’s native token, a blockchain that competes with Ethereum, achieved new highs over the weekend.The surge in Solana’s value was largely driven by two memecoins introduced on its blockchain by Trump and his wife Melania leading up to his inauguration. Trump’s memecoin saw intense trading activity over the weekend, reaching a market capitalization of $15 billion before experiencing a sharp drop, as per data from CoinMarketCap. The pro-crypto stance adopted by the Republicans has benefitted most major digital assets since Trump’s victory over Democrat Kamala Harris in November.Memecoins, often represented by joke tokens like Dogecoin, are highly volatile cryptocurrencies with little inherent value. They can record substantial gains if they garner the attention of social media users, but are equally susceptible to rapid crashes.Solana, self-proclaimed as an “Ethereum killer,” has become the preferred network for memecoin launches. The price ratio of its token against Ether reached a record high on Sunday, as speculators invested heavily in the Trump coins.While other cryptocurrencies are setting records, Ether remains about 30% below its 2021 peak. Over the past 12 months, the token has increased by 39%, compared to gains of 156% and 180% for Bitcoin and Solana, respectively.The comparatively subdued demand for Ether has caused concern among investors. Over the past three months, a group of 12 Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the US saw a net inflow of over $17 billion, while similar Ether-investing products only attracted $3 billion, according to Bloomberg data.This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C. More

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    Dolomite to Launch Royco Pre-Deposit Campaign on Berachain

    Dolomite, a decentralized money market protocol, announced the upcoming launch of its pre-deposit campaign for Berachain, an emerging layer-1 blockchain with an innovative Proof of Liquidity (PoL) consensus mechanism that has already accrued around $2B in liquidity. This campaign allows users to commit assets to Dolomite ahead of Berachain’s official launch through Royco, the market for any onchain action, and earn future rewards.Through the campaign, participants can freely commit and uncommit assets until the Berachain mainnet goes live. Once the launch of Berachain occurs, committed assets will be locked on Dolomite for a predetermined period, with the lock up period bringing added incentives. On top of a base lending yield for providing lendable assets such as HONEY, USDC, ETH, and WBTC, users will receive veDOLO and BERA as additional rewards for their lockup. 30 million veDOLO tokens will be distributed, with reward weights varying by asset type. Berachain has committed 1%+ of the supply of BERA to be dedicated to Royco deposits. Shortly after the TGE, Dolomite will launch its liquidity mining program, allowing those supplying qualifying assets to earn oDOLO in addition to the veDOLO, BERA, and interest.Dolomite’s robust lending technology empowers users to unlock new efficiencies. Notably, the platform allows users to borrow against assets staked in PoL, repay debts using collateral, and loop borrowing processes in a single click. Furthermore, Dolomite will support borrowing against $BGT, Berachain’s soulbound and non-transferable governance token. As $BGT is not supported as collateral by other lending protocols on Berachain due to its non-transferable nature, Dolomite provides a critical solution for unlocking the utility of $BGT. Combined with Berachain’s ecosystem, the Royco campaign positions Dolomite to become a hub for liquidity on the Berachain blockchain.Lendable and non-lendable assets are both eligible for the Royco campaign. Lendable assets, including HONEY, USDC, NECT, ETH, and WBTC, will be locked for 90 days and receive a majority of rewards due to their support for the protocol’s lending and borrowing ecosystem. Non-lendable assets, such as uniBTC and beraETH, are locked for 30 days and receive a smaller share of rewards.Dolomite’s deployment on Berachain aligns with its ongoing mission to create a secure, efficient, and user-focused decentralized finance ecosystem. With over two years of secure operations, $800 million in trade volume processed, and over $115 million in TVL, Dolomite has established itself as a reliable and innovative platform. By combining Dolomite’s robust lending technology with Berachain’s dynamic ecosystem, this campaign provides participants with tools to maximize capital efficiency and support a protocol as it becomes a central hub for liquidity and innovation.Dolomite allows users to unlock dormant capital by smarter borrowing and lending. It enables smarter asset deployment through powerful integrations across the DeFi ecosystem. Dolomite’s advanced architecture supports separate borrow positions from a single wallet, each with a distinct risk profile. Its unique design allows for a broad range of yield-bearing assets to be used as collateral, helping users earn rewards while borrowing against these assets.Over time, Dolomite aims to become a hub for DeFi activity to allow other protocols, yield aggregators, DAOs, market makers, hedge funds, and others to manage their portfolios and run on-chain strategies.Website | X | Telegram | DiscordAbout BerachainBerachain is an EVM-identical Layer 1 (L1) blockchain that uses the novel Proof of Liquidity (PoL) consensus mechanism to secure the network and fuel the application layer. PoL enables users to earn directly from the network for contributing liquidity or performing incentivized actions—transforming the chain’s inflation into fuel for its applications and their users. This model aligns incentives with users who support the network over the long term, creating a sustainable ecosystem where the network’s growth and liquidity reinforce each other while increasing its security. What started as an NFT project in 2021 has evolved into a full-fledged blockchain ecosystem backed by a grassroots army of left and right curvers.ContactCo-founder and COOAdam [email protected] article was originally published on Chainwire More