Aurelia Butler

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever.A batch of top-tier economic data from China, including fourth quarter GDP growth, will grab the spotlight in Asia on Tuesday, and the numbers are not expected to be pretty.This does not necessarily mean investor sentiment and risky assets will automatically weaken – investors may consider these figures to be backward-looking, or bet that they will spur growth-friendly stimulus and policies from Beijing. Either way, it does look like Q4 GDP, as well as December retail sales, investment and industrial production data will confirm the world’s second-largest economy ended last year on an extremely weak footing. To varying degrees, all are expected to be softer than the previous measures. GDP is expected to contract 0.8% from Q3, giving annual growth of just 1.8% in the October-December period. Retail sales are expected to have fallen 8.6%. GRAPHIC: China GDP (https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/egpbymjzbvq/ChinaGDP.jpg) Economists polled by Reuters reckon China’s economy grew 2.8% last year overall, and will rebound to 4.9% this year. The transition away from the stringent zero-COVID policy of the last couple of years will be rocky in the near term as infections surge. Authorities said on Saturday nearly 60,000 people with COVID died in hospitals between Dec. 8 and Jan. 12. Analysts at UBS have tried to quantify the impact China’s reopening has had on markets as investors price in the coming recovery. They reckon it accounts for about half of the 70% of the recent market rally that can be attributed to macro factors. In other words, it is about 50% to 70% priced in already, they estimate. House price data on Monday showed the sector continued to weaken into December as new COVID-19 outbreaks hit demand. New home prices fell month-on-month for a fifth month in a row, and year-on-year prices fell for an eighth straight month. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the yuan on Monday posted its biggest fall since late November. Perhaps it was due a breather, having rallied nearly 10% in the three months from early November to a seven-month high. Meanwhile, the saga at embattled Chinese property developer Evergrande took another twist on Monday when it was confirmed that its auditor PricewaterhouseCoopers had resigned over matters related to the 2021 fiscal year. Three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday: – China GDP (Q4), retail sales, industrial output, investment (December)- World Economic Forum (Davos, Switzerland)- Fed’s Williams speaks More

DAVOS, Switzerland (Reuters) – Job cuts are not “top of mind” for Manulife Financial (NYSE:MFC) Corp, Canada’s largest insurer, as it sees significant growth opportunities, fuelled particularly by Asia, CEO Roy Gori said on Monday.”We are in growth mode,” Gori told the Reuters Global Markets Forum on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, adding that his firm has been increasing headcount.”We are growing at more than double or triple the GDP in most of the markets that we operate in. That means that we’re investing organically to grow our business and … possibly looking at inorganic opportunities for growth as well.”Gori said Manulife’s U.S. and Canadian markets were stable and growing at a reasonable rate, while seeing a “phenomenal opportunity” in Asia due to the region’s expanding middle-class, despite any trade shocks that may come its way.While China’s reversal of its zero-COVID policy may pose some short-term challenges, Gori expected activity to pick up in the second half of the year, providing impetus to Asia and the rest of the world.Gori said he wasn’t worried that the U.S. Federal Reserve would over-tighten, as he expected inflation to remain stubbornly high and central banks to maintain higher interest rates for longer.”At the very minimum, we’ll see three 25-basis-point rate hikes from the Fed. If they do have to cut rates, it maybe by 25 basis points or 50, but I’m not seeing a 200 bps rate cut in the outlook of 2023 or 2024.”The prospect of an imminent global recession cast a long shadow over Davos on Monday as participants counted the likely cost for their economies and businesses.(Join GMF, a chat room hosted on Refinitiv Messenger: ) More

Speaking to journalists at his hotel in Davos, Switzerland, Haddad said that Brazilian institutions “gave a very immediate response” after supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed government buildings in Brasilia on Jan. 8.”Brazil is committed to the electoral result, to democratic rules, freedom, individual freedoms, respecting constitutional guarantees,” said the minister, who is representing the country at Davos along with Environment Minister Marina Silva.He stressed that the economic model defended by the newly inaugurated government of leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is aiming to boost economic growth with fiscal and environmental sustainability, as well as social justice.Later on Monday, Haddad met Achim Steiner, head of the U.N. Development Programme, and the new president of the Inter-American Development Bank, Brazilian Ilan Goldfajn.After the meetings, Haddad told journalists that the IDB showed interest in financing clean energy in Brazil, in remarks broadcast on TV GloboNews. Haddad and Silva will discuss the country’s economic, social and environmental road map at a WEF panel on Tuesday. “We can think about the reindustrialization of Brazil based on sustainability,” said Haddad, who also said Brazil wants to resume its environmental commitments by combating deforestation and advancing in renewable energy.The minister last week presented an ambitious plan to more than halve the government’s estimated deficit this year by boosting tax revenue and trimming expenditures. Still, investors are awaiting details of new fiscal rules from the government. Lula secured early congressional support for a spending package bypassing a constitutional spending cap, adding to concerns about fiscal discipline.Haddad said it was “very realistic” for the country to end this year with a primary budget deficit of 1% of gross domestic product, assuming that part of the fiscal measures are effective.He also said the government wants to vote on a tax reform in the first half of the year after reaching a consensus text based on two proposals that are already in Congress. More