Aurelia Butler

Biden ordered federal aid to supplement regional recovery efforts in the areas affected by severe storms, straight-line winds and tornadoes on Jan. 12, a White House statement said.At least five tornadoes touched down in central Alabama on Thursday, according to National Weather Service meteorologist Jessica Laws. Biden’s action makes federal funding available to affected individuals in the counties of Autauga and Dallas. More

Russia’s revenue from fertiliser exports soared last year despite a decline in sales volumes, as crop nutrient prices rose sharply after its invasion of Ukraine.In the first 10 months of 2022, Russian fertiliser exports jumped 70 per cent to $16.7bn compared to the same period in 2021, according to UN data. Import statistics from Moscow’s trade partners show that, in volume terms, overseas sales by the world’s largest fertiliser exporter only fell 10 per cent from the same period the previous year, analysis by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization found. This is despite analysts’ predictions at the outbreak of the war in February that shipments would collapse.Food and fertiliser exports from Russia are exempt from western sanctions in order to support food security, especially for poorer countries. Moscow has been increasing its exports to countries such as India, Turkey and Vietnam.“Clearly countries like India have been the biggest beneficiaries [in terms of fertiliser imports],” said the FAO’s Josef Schmidhuber.Russian and EU officials have been concerned that some buyers and their banks and insurers were self sanctioning and avoiding buying products from Russia.The EU last month clarified the exemption from sanctions for Russian agriculture and fertiliser exports after claims among EU member states that shipments were sometimes being held up due to worries over possible involvement of sanctioned Russian companies or individuals. The EU introduced new exemptions allowing individual EU member states to unfreeze money of sanctioned individuals who were involved in the Russian fertiliser and agricultural sectors.International prices fertiliser prices began to surge even before the war as Russia curtailed supplies of natural gas, the main feedstock for nitrogen fertilisers. Prices for potash, another important fertiliser, jumped after western governments imposed sanctions on Belarus, one of the leading producers of the crop nutrient, after Minsk quashed anti-government protests.The sharp rise in gas prices after the Russian invasion led to plant closures in Europe, which drove up prices of nitrogen fertilisers, which are crucial to output and quality of food production. However, Russia is unlikely to continue to benefit from higher prices this year. Recent falls in gas prices in Europe thanks to warmer than normal weather have led to lower fertiliser prices, with producers in the region ramping up production. “This means imports by EU countries will fall considerably and is good news for farmers around the world,” said Schmidhuber.European gas prices have now declined to levels not seen since before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “European production is profitable and producers continue to churn out fertiliser,” said Chris Lawson, head of fertiliser at consultancy CRU. “Global nitrogen supplies are ample, and we expect continued declines in phosphate and potash prices,” he added of the three key nutrients.Grain shipments have also returned to prewar levels. The volume of grains, including wheat and corn, shipped during the past three months of 2022 was up 21 per cent from the same period the previous year, according to data from vessel trackers Sea/. One commodity that has not seen a recovery in exports is ammonia, a feedstock for nitrogen fertilisers, due to the closure of a pipeline through Ukraine. Russia accounts for about 12 per cent of the global ammonia export market, and the FAO data shows that Russian exports of the chemical, which is also used in industries such as plastics and textiles, fell 76 per cent by volume in the first nine months of 2022 compared to the same period the previous year.The Black Sea grain agreement between Moscow and Kyiv brokered by the UN and renewed in November included a pledge to restart Russian exports of ammonia by reopening of the pipeline. Russian fertiliser companies and investors, including sanctions-hit Russian fertiliser billionaire Dmitry Mazepin, have been calling for a resumption of shipments although the recent fall in international nitrogen fertiliser prices weakens the urgency, analysts said.Additional reporting by Andy Bounds in Brussels More

FELTON, Calif. (Reuters) -A new weather system packing rain, snow and strong winds moved into storm-lashed California on Saturday, the latest in a parade of atmospheric rivers that have wreaked havoc across the state in recent weeks.While next week should bring some respite, the first of two systems expected to hit California over the U.S. holiday weekend pushed onshore on Saturday, unleashing more heavy rain, the National Weather Service said. Atmospheric rivers rarely seen in such frequent succession have pounded the Golden State since Dec. 26, killing at least 19 people and bringing floods, power outages, mudslides, evacuations and road closures. More than 24,000 utility customers were without power as of Saturday afternoon, according to PowerOutage.us. The storms have dropped half the average annual rainfall on the agricultural Central Valley and as much as 15 feet (4.5 m) of snow in the mountains.Flood advisories were in effect across the state on Saturday, and thousands of residents were under evacuation orders and warnings. A neighborhood in the Santa Cruz County community of Felton in central California flooded for the second time in a week and the third time since the turn of the year.Residents banded together, helping one another with shovels and squeegees to clean out garages and driveways.”It sucks,” said Caitlin Clancy, 36 as she shoveled mud on her driveway. “And to go through it a third time, it’s just defeating.”Sacramento county issued an evacuation order for Wilton and other areas that had suffered severe flooding during a New Year’s Eve storm. A levee breach in the Bear Creek area of Merced in the San Joaquin Valley flooded homes and stranded animals, according to local media, as officials worked to prevent high waters from overflowing. At least seven waterways were officially flooded, the California Department of Water Resources said on Friday.California Governor Gavin Newsom told reporters on Saturday he expected President Joe Biden to sign a major disaster declaration to help the state respond to the emergency.”These weather events have taken more lives in the last two years than wildfires,” Newsom said at a news conference on Saturday. “That’s how deadly they are.”In the mountains of the Sierra Nevada, heavy snow and strong winds brought whiteout conditions in some areas that prompted road closures.Snowfall in the Sierras had topped 21 inches as of Saturday morning, with about 10 feet already on the ground and a few more expected, according to the University of California Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab.The California storms have mitigated but not solved the region’s drought.The U.S. Drought Monitor revised on Thursday its assessment to lift virtually all of the state out of extreme drought or exceptional drought, the two worst categories, though much of it is still considered to be suffering moderate or severe drought. More

The writer is chair of Rockefeller InternationalIn late October, when Xi Jinping consolidated his hold on China’s communist party at its five-yearly congress, the world cringed. Xi seemed determined to push China back to the age of Mao Zedong, his role model. Hardline ideology would tighten its grip on the world’s second-largest economy, with dire implications for the rest. The last thing anyone expected from a strongman president entering his 11th year in power was a sudden about face. Yet within weeks, Xi’s government has reversed its efforts to control Covid-19, Big Tech companies, the property market and more. It has shown signs of reduced support for Russia’s war in Ukraine while easing tensions with the US and in its territorial disputes in the South China Sea. This softening seemed so uncharacteristic of Xi, some even speculated that he no longer set government policy.That’s unlikely — at the congress Xi had purged enemies and installed allies throughout the party. Yet the 180-degree turn on multiple policy fronts was unmistakable and raises doubts about everything the world thought it knew about Xi, the unbending hardliner. Was he now bending to pressure from worried officials, the public, the deteriorating economy? The answer may be all of the above. Xi’s Covid policy, the tech crackdown and the property bust had brought the economy to a standstill in 2022. The economy appears to have contracted in the fourth quarter, which is likely to bring growth for the year down to 3 per cent. That is according to official Chinese data — the reality was probably worse. China has not grown this slowly since the late 1970s and is growing no faster than the rest of the world, also a first since the 1970s. A performance that weak was a serious threat to an authoritarian state that rests its legitimacy on promises to restore China’s prosperity and its global stature. As the slowdown fuelled street rallies against the pursuit of “zero-Covid”, some protesters dared to call for Xi to step down. Officials in his own government were reportedly urging him to save the economy. Still, few if any China watchers thought the paramount leader would change course. Those who last more than 10 years in power often grow less flexible, and have worse effects on the economy over time, even in democracies. Many dictators, from Cuba’s Fidel Castro to Mao, have been snowballing disasters. The rare, steady reformers include the likes of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew, and Deng Xiaoping, who dumped Maoism for pragmatism and set China on the road to prosperity after 1980. Xi now appears to have moved into a grey area on the spectrum of ageing leaders — willing to reform, at least in the depths of a crisis. Aiming to revive the economy after the congress, Xi’s government started sounding less Maoist. It has dropped the “three red lines” on borrowing by developers, and announced that the “rectification” campaign against fintech firms is nearly complete. After tightening state control for years, it is sending out messages of support to the private sector, even offering details of its new global data market that suggest respect for private data ownership. The irony: Xi may be trying impractically hard to revive growth. His plans to build “a modern socialist economy” imply an annual gross domestic product growth target of 5 per cent, which is no longer possible. China’s population growth has slowed sharply, as has productivity growth. With fewer workers and slumping output per worker, the country’s potential growth rate is 2.5 per cent. Beyond this year, when spending by Chinese consumers released from lockdown may temporarily boost growth, 5 per cent is an unrealistic target. And more debt-financed spending will only increase China’s already massive debt load.Global investors, who so often blow hot and cold on China, have again flipped — this time to embrace the new Xi. Before November, the country’s stock market was tanking with the economy. Fund managers were launching emerging market mandates excluding China. Now, they are bullish on hopes of a post-pandemic “reopening” bounce and have been pouring money into Chinese stocks. The benchmark MSCI China index is up a staggering 50 per cent since the late October lows.Yet the questions about China’s policy direction remain. Xi’s pivot is a pragmatic course correction, but it raises doubts about his steadiness. His impulse to control may reassert itself when the economy starts to recover — a reflex much more common in ageing leaders than a full rebirth as a steady reformer. Still, we should celebrate this new Xi, if he lasts — he’s a lot better for the world than the old one. More