Aurelia Butler

BANGKOK (Reuters) -Thailand’s economy may accelerate next year and hit the 3.8% growth forecast provided its vital tourism sector will get a boost from China’s reopening plans needed to offset slowing global demand, the finance minister said on Tuesday.Growth in southeast Asia’s second-largest economy has lagged that of other peers as the tourism sector just started to recover from the coronavirus pandemic. In pre-pandemic 2019, Chinese tourists accounted for about 28% of nearly 40 million foreign tourist arrivals.Arkhom Termpittayapaisith estimated 2022 economic expansion at 3.1% or 3.2%.”But next year we are still optimistic and hoping that we will get 3.8% (growth) with tourism the main driver,” he told a news conference, saying there were signs that China would start to reopen.Arkhom warned last month the 2023 growth forecast might be missed because of the global economic slowdown.He said Thailand had received 11 million foreign tourists so far this year and the number should rise to some 21 million in 2023, or even further if Chinese tourists return.Investment will also underpin the economy, Arkhom added.The government is planning to cap its budget deficit at 3% of gross domestic product in the 2024 fiscal year, aiming for a deficit of 593 billion baht ($17.13 billion), Arkhom said.The ministry’s medium-term fiscal framework, approved by the cabinet on Tuesday, also saw the public debt at 61.35% of GDP at the end of the 2024 fiscal year starting Oct. 1.Arkhom also said the Bank of Thailand’s inflation target range of 1% to 3% was appropriate and monetary policy would ensure continued recovery of the economy.While headline inflation was 5.55% in November, he said it would slow to within the target in 2023.The central bank said recently it would keep raising rates until the economy grew at its full potential and inflation returned to target.($1 = 34.62 baht) More

China said it would stop requiring inbound travelers to go into quarantine starting Jan. 8, a major step in reopening its borders, adding that it would also downgrade the seriousness of COVID as it has become less virulent. U.S.-listed shares of Chinese firms such as JD (NASDAQ:JD).Com Inc, Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) Group Holding, Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD) Inc climbed between 2.5% and 3% in premarket trading. With a handful of trading sessions left this year, investors are hoping for a so-called “Santa rally” at the end of what has been a largely disappointing month for U.S. equities. The benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq have lost 5.8% and 8.5%, respectively, so far in December and are on track for their biggest yearly loss since the financial crisis of 2008 on fears that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy tightening could tip the U.S. economy into a recession. Economic data so far has offered little hope that the Fed could hit the brakes on its interest rate hikes, with a report last week showing inflation has cooled further but not enough to discourage the U.S. central bank from driving rates to higher levels next year.Money markets are pricing in 63% odds of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting in February and see rates peaking at 4.93% in May 2023..Trading volumes remain thin as investors return from a long weekend, while the economic data schedule is also light this week with some home sales and jobs reports on tap. At 6:18 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 208 points, or 0.62%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 25 points, or 0.65%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 62.5 points, or 0.56%. Shares of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) fell 2.0% premarket after Reuters reported the electric vehicle maker plans to run a reduced production schedule at its Shanghai plant in January. Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) Co dipped 3% after facing flight cancellations and delays a day after Christmas. More

SAO PAULO (Reuters) – After a sharp drop in Latin American deals in 2022, bankers expect a slow recovery next year, led by M&A. IPOs may take longer to resume, due to high global interest rates.The volume of M&A deals in Latin America fell 35% this year, to $86 billion, according to Refinitiv data. Roderick Greenlees, global investment banking head at Itau Unibanco Holding SA, said the total value of M&A, although lower than the record year of 2021, was within historical range in the years before.Bankers predict M&A volumes will grow up to 20% in the region next year as Latin America becomes more relevant among emerging markets. Many emerging market investors have already backed out of Russia due to the war in Ukraine, and are now reducing exposure to China, worried over the impact of erratic COVID policies, tension with Washington and opaque finances of Chinese firms.Latin America has a great opportunity to increase its share among emerging markets, said Latam M&A co-head at Citigroup (NYSE:C) Nicolas Roca. “The volatility related to elections in the region tends to be short lived and won’t affect this trend,” he said, citing the example of market improvement in Chile a year after the election of leftist Gabriel Boric. Investors are also awaiting economic policy proposals from Brazil’s President-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the latest leftist elected in the region after Colombia’s Gustavo Petro, Roca said. Lula takes office on Jan. 1 and has announced that party loyalist Fernando Haddad will be his finance minister.HEALTHCARE, ENERGYFor the second year in a row, healthcare deals were among the largest in the region. The acquisition of Brazilian insurer Sul America SA by hospital chain Rede D’Or Sao Luiz SA for $3.1 billion in a stock deal highlighted the activity in the industry. The $2.1 billion acquisition of mall operator BR Malls by Aliansce Sonae began as an unsolicited offer, a kind of deal that was unusual in Brazil a short time ago.Energy should continue to be a very active industry, especially renewable energy and transmission assets, said Daniel Bassan, CEO of UBS BB. Fabio Medeiros, head of investment banking in Brazil for Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), also sees potential consolidation among smaller oil companies that have grown over the last years, acquiring assets sold by state-owned oil company Petrobras. Lula is expected to halt divestitures of state assets.High interest rates and credit delinquencies are seen motivating retail deals that have been slowly growing over the last months, UBS BB’s Bassan said. IPOS ON THE BACK BURNERThe return of initial public offerings in 2023 seems more difficult, sources said. Share offerings fell 61% in Latin America this year to $13.4 billion, according to Refinitiv data through December 26. Brazilian investors have been plowing money into fixed income assets as benchmark interest rates reached 13.75%.Although rates are also rising in other developed markets, Latin America is now back on international investors’ radar after they retreated from other large markets, said Teodora Barone, UBS BB executive director.The first IPO of the year should be the listing of energy assets owned in Brazil by China’s Three Gorges. Sanitation companies may resume their listing intentions if the Lula government keeps recent laws that regulate the industry and allowed higher volume of private investment.M&A League Table 2022- Latin AmericaFinancial advisor Volume (US$ million) Number of deals Itau Unibanco 15,372 42 Banco BTG Pactual 13,911 71 Rothschild & Co 13,882 24 Banco Bradesco SA 13,146 58 Citi 10,605 14 Morgan Stanley 8,857 13 Lazard (NYSE:LAZ) 7,404 17 JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) 6,184 15 Santander (BME:SAN) CIB 5,996 35 Scotiabank 5,694 9 Total 88,026 1,354 Source: Refinitiv. YTD data through December 26 More

(Reuters) – European shares climbed on Tuesday, tracking a global rally in equities after China further relaxed its COVID-19 curbs, raising hopes of a recovery in the world’s second-largest economy.The pan-European STOXX 600 index gained 0.4% to start the holiday-shortened week higher.China on Monday said it would drop its quarantine requirements for inbound visitors, further easing three-year border controls aimed at curbing COVID. [MKTS/GLOB]While London and Dublin markets remained closed for the Christmas holiday, most European bourses advanced in early trading.Chinese reopening and the in-line U.S. inflation data on Friday could provide a “minor boost to equity markets,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.However, rise in COVID-19 cases in China could “throw a shadow on the reopening glow,” Ozkardeskaya added. China-exposed luxury firms LVMH and Richemont rose nearly 1.7% each. Miners and energy stocks added 1.0% and 1.4%, respectively, according to Refinitiv data based on Thursday’s closing price, as commodity prices jumped on hopes of demand recovery in top consumer China. [MET/L] [O/R] On the day, these sectors also rose.Industrials and banks gained for a second straight session, lifting the broader European index.Traders and analysts said thin trading volumes also influenced market moves.German companies expect only a mild recession next year despite headwinds from the energy crisis, raw material shortages and a tepid global economy, a Reuters survey showed.  Shares in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, gained 0.5%.The European STOXX 600 index has lost nearly 12% so far this year, and is headed for its worst annual performance since 2018, on fears of economic recession due to aggressive monetary policy tightening by central banks globally. Among individual movers, Leonteq fell 4.4% after the Swiss fintech firm said it was lowering its profit expectations for 2022 due to reduced client demand in the second half of the year.Belgium-based Lotus Bakeries NV declined 4.6% to the bottom of the index. (This story has been refiled to specify in paragraph 8 that sectoral price moves are based on Thursday’s close) More