Aurelia Butler

Fast falling Chinese bond yields have been complicating Beijing’s efforts to stabilise a weakening yuan and the People’s Bank of China suspended treasury bond purchases in January, a move seen by investors as an attempt to stop yields from testing new record lows.”If long-term government bond yields cannot accurately reflect economic fundamentals, or if there are big changes in supply and demand … Considering amplifying effect that some institutions have financial leverage, a spiral effect could be formed by redemptions, greater losses will occur in the short term,” Zou Lan, head of the central bank’s monetary policy department, told a news briefing in Beijing.The central bank has intensified macro-prudential management, issued risk warnings, suspended treasury bond purchases and switched to other liquidity tools to avoid “exacerbating supply-demand tensions and market fluctuations,” Zou said.However, Zou’s comments had little impact on the trades, with China’s 10-year and 30-year government bond yields falling as much as 3.25 basis points (bps) and 4 bps, respectively, on Tuesday.Against the backdrop of a global bond sell-off, the trend could further widen the gap between Chinese and U.S. government debt yields, adding more unwelcome pressure on the yuan, traders and analysts said.Addressing the same press conference, Xuan Changneng, deputy governor of the PBOC, reiterated that China will continue to take steps to stabilise the yuan at reasonable and balanced levels.”The goal of maintaining the basic stability of the yuan exchange rate will not change,” Xuan said.”We have the confidence, conditions and ability to resolutely achieve the goal … will resolutely correct market pro-cyclical behaviours, resolutely deal with behaviours that disrupt market order, resolutely prevent the risk of exchange rate overshooting.”Xuan said that China will also adjust and improve policy implementation force and pace to hit its full-year economic and social development targets. More

NEW DELHI (Reuters) -India plans to project higher economic growth for the next fiscal year, two government officials with direct knowledge of the matter said, adding that fiscal deficit goals are being met and kept.It is likely to forecast nominal economic growth of 10.3%-10.5%, according to one of the officials. That’s higher than the forecast of 9.7% for the current year to end-March given by the government’s statistical department this month.The upbeat outlook could help dispel worries about an economic slowdown which have gripped markets since November. The government expects the world’s fifth-biggest economy to log its slowest pace of growth in four years for 2024/25.N.R. Bhanumurthy, director at Madras School of Economics, said the nominal GDP estimate for the next fiscal year looked realistic, adding that he expects growth to be driven by government capital spending, agriculture and a pickup in exports. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is expected to cut personal income taxes in her budget which is due to be presented on Feb. 1, hoping to boost demand among millions of salary earners who have been forced to cut discretionary spending due to weak wage growth and high food inflation.The tax cuts are not expected to affect India’s plans to reduce its fiscal deficit, the sources said, adding that the government expects this year’s budget gap to come in 10 to 20 basis points lower than an initially predicted 4.9%.That is partially due to delays in government spending caused by last year’s national election and monsoons.India will also stick to its goal of shrinking the fiscal deficit to below 4.5% in the coming financial year, they said.The sources were not authorised to talk to media and declined to be identified.The finance ministry did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comments.Nominal economic growth is the sum of a country’s real gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation. It is used as a base to calculate projections for a country’s revenue, expenditure and deficit.Seeking to boost growth, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration has so far cut corporate tax rates, introduced production-linked incentives for manufacturers and increased government spending on infrastructure.Even so, these measures have not created sufficient jobs in the world’s most populous nation or led to a meaningful increase in wages for salaried workers in cities who are cutting back on spending after more than a year of eye-watering increases in food, especially vegetables. India’s business groups are also lobbying for cuts to fuel taxes, a maintaining of momentum in infrastructure spending and a reduction in some import duties. More

Yuan interest rate swaps (IRS), which domestic investors use to hedge as well as express their views on rates, have been inverted for nearly four weeks, with front end yields trading above longer ones. That inversion has been driven by a rise short-term rates as expectations for rate cuts recede.On Tuesday, the gap between five-year IRS and one-year swaps was at its most negative in nearly a decade, at minus-9 basis points.”The inversion signals the markets are dialling back expectations of People’s Bank of China (PBOC) interest rate cuts and in the reserve requirement ratios (RRRs),” analysts at Commerzbank (ETR:CBKG) said in a note. “This comes amid concerns over yuan stability. Indeed, widening China-U.S. bond yield differentials and lingering uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade tariffs have exacerbated yuan weakness against the dollar. This will limit PBOC’s room to manoeuvre on monetary easing.”Investors have been bracing for rate cuts, driving bond yields down aggressively, after Chinese authorities pledged last year to adopt an “appropriately loose” monetary policy in 2025, marking the first easing stance in more than a decade.But their efforts to stimulate a limp economy come alongside broad depreciation pressures on the Chinese yuan from a widening gap between U.S. and Chinese yields and escalating trade tensions with the U.S. and other economies.China’s yuan has lost more than 3% to the dollar since the U.S. election in early November, on worries that Trump’s threats of fresh trade tariffs will heap more pressure on the struggling Chinese economy. [CNY/]”The next policy-rate/RRR cut is likely to be after the U.S. presidential inauguration date, as the central bank avoids imminent easing to defend the exchange rate,” said Ju Wang, head of Greater China FX & rates strategy at BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY). China has stepped up measures ranging from verbal warnings, tweaks to capital flows and issuance of offshore yuan bills to put a floor under the declining yuan.Interest rate swaps and bond futures are the main avenues for those wishing to bet against rate rises in China, since short-selling of bonds is not possible.There were also signs of liquidity conditions tightening ahead of traditional demand for cash during the week-long Lunar New Year holidays at the end of January. The central bank has, however, been cautious with cash injection due to concerns about the yuan, traders said.The volume-weighted average rate of the benchmark overnight repo traded in the interbank market, considered the best indicator of general cash conditions, surged to 1.9636% on Tuesday, the highest level since June 2024. More

The company is preparing to compete with SpaceX in the satellite launch market. The first scheduled launch was called off on Monday due to a technical issue encountered before takeoff.The new three-hour launch window is set to open at 1 a.m. EST (0600 GMT) on Thursday, according to a post by Blue Origin. The development of the New Glenn rocket has seen three different CEOs at the helm of Blue Origin and has faced multiple delays.In the meantime, SpaceX, led by Elon Musk, has become a major player in the industry with its reusable Falcon 9, currently the world’s most active rocket. The New Glenn rocket is over twice as powerful as the Falcon 9 and already has many customer launch contracts in place, collectively worth billions of dollars.The plan for the launch is to land the first stage booster of the New Glenn on a sea-faring barge in the Atlantic Ocean, about 10 minutes after liftoff. The rocket’s second stage will continue toward orbit.In a pre-launch interview on Sunday, Bezos expressed his concerns about the booster landing. “The thing we’re most nervous about is the booster landing,” he said. “Clearly on a first flight you could have an anomaly at any mission phase, so anything could happen.”This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C. More

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$99 for your first yearFT newspaper delivered Monday-Saturday, plus FT Digital Edition delivered to your device Monday-Saturday.What’s included Weekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysis More