Aurelia Butler

Inflation affects us all, but the rate at which we experience it will depend on our unique spending habits. Use the calculator below to estimate your personal inflation rate.

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Why estimate your personal inflation rate?For the past 30 years, inflation has been relatively stable across advanced economies, including the UK and US. In others it has even been deflationary, such as in Japan. This has been turned on its head in 2022, with the shockwaves of a global pandemic, supply-chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine all contributing to a rapid rise in the costs of fuel, food and a broad range of goods. So much so, that major national economies have reached their first double-digit inflation rates since the 1980s.These inflation rates — most often measured by the consumer price index, or CPI — are calculated based on a total “basket” of goods and services bought by all consumers in a national economy. They do not, however, necessarily represent the impact that inflation has on you. For example, the latest UK national basket assumes that 9.8 per cent of household budgets are spent on personal transport, such as owning and using a car. While this may be representative of the UK as a whole, it may not be at all representative for you as individual if, for example, you don’t own a car, or the amount you use it greatly differs from the national average.

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This is where a personal inflation calculator can be useful. By taking data on national price changes, it allows you to estimate your experience of inflation, according to the constraints, priorities and preferences that shape your personal spending patterns.Sources and methodologyData and analysis by Ella Hollowood, Oliver Hawkins, Kentaro Takeda and Aiko Munakata.Development, design and graphics by Bob Haslett and Ændra Rininsland. More

Consumers and investors have been worried that China’s return to sweeping Covid-19 lockdowns could hit the production of Apple’s iPhones and Elon Musk’s Teslas. But in a corner of south-west China, desperation has risen over a very different question: how to feed endangered tigers.The Guizhou Wildlife Park this week issued an urgent plea for live chickens and fish, as well as steamed buns and frozen crabs, over concerns that the animals could starve as lockdowns choke supply chains. The park is home to endangered Siberian, white Bengal and South China tigers, as well as pandas, crocodiles and zebras.“Almost 70 per cent of the animals kept in the park are protected species, but at present, the park’s feed stockpiles are far from enough,” the park’s owner said in a letter sent to local authorities.The difficulty feeding the animals is the latest sign of the challenges caused by the strict implementation of President Xi Jinping’s zero-Covid policy. It also comes ahead of a critical Chinese Communist party meeting at which Xi is set to secure an unprecedented third term in power.About 50 Chinese cities that are home to roughly 290mn people, more than a fifth of the population, are under partial or full lockdowns or restrictions, according to Nomura. This number could grow in the coming days as health officials ratchet up testing during a national holiday.In the province of Guizhou, several cities are under pandemic restrictions, affecting a combined population of nearly 10mn.The wildlife park, which is located 50km north of Guiyang, said its call for help — which also included a request for stocks of sweet potato, peppers and frozen shrimp tails — was swiftly handled by local authorities. Within 24 hours, several ecommerce groups, including Alibaba’s Hema Fresh, JD.com and Walmart, had offered future deliveries.The park said it must keep at least 10 days of live food for some animals, as it was uncertain how long the lockdowns would last.The shortages reflected deepening worries about food security and supply chain breakdowns returning across China as Covid restrictions were expanded. Panic buying, including in the megacity of Chengdu, which went into lockdown last week, was a stark reminder of the chaos that hit Shanghai, China’s biggest and most affluent city, in April.

“Over the past week, the overall Covid situation deteriorated considerably in China,” said Ting Lu, Nomura’s chief China economist.“What is becoming increasingly concerning is that Covid hotspots are continuing to shift away from several remote regions and cities — with seemingly less economic significance to the country — to provinces that matter much more to China’s national economy,” he added.In the Yunyan district of Guiyang, officials cautioned residents after a pack of macaques started roaming the city’s streets looking for food, following the temporary closure of nearby monkey parks this week. More

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The dollar took a breather from its surging rally on Friday as markets digested yet more hawkish Fed speak, while the euro hung on to parity, helped by an outsized rate hike from the European Central Bank.Currency moves overnight were calmer for once even as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed the central bank’s aggressive stance against inflation, which reinforced the greenback’s dominance.The euro was up 0.52% at $1.0050, inching away from its two-decade trough of $0.9864 hit earlier in the week as speculators took profits on crowded short positions.The ECB on Thursday raised its key interest rates by an unprecedented 75 basis points and promised further hikes to come in its fight against inflation, even as the bloc is likely heading towards a winter recession and gas rationing.The single currency is on track for a 0.9% weekly gain, snapping three straight weeks of decline, but has nonetheless fallen more than 10% this year.Meanwhile, sterling was last up 0.43% to $1.1547, reversing its losses from the previous session.The pound fell overnight after news that Queen Elizabeth, Britain’s longest-reigning monarch and the nation’s figurehead for seven decades, died peacefully on Thursday at the age of 96.The U.S. dollar index was down 0.25% to 109.25, just off a 20-year top of 110.79.”Effectively, the ECB and Powell kind of cancel each other out, so there was sort of volatility, but at the end, not much happened in that sense,” said Rodrigo Catril, a currency strategist at National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY).”I think the market now is starting to look towards next week, U.S. CPI, and I think to some extent, that will set the tone in terms of what to expect from the Fed.”Against the Japanese yen, the dollar was last down 0.29% to 143.69, but is up nearly 3% on the week, the largest weekly gain since June.The yen fell to a 24-year low this week as the policy divergence between the Bank of Japan’s ultra-dovish stance and the rest of the world, particularly the Fed, proved too stark to be ignored.Japan’s top currency diplomat said on Thursday that the country is ready to take action in the market and will not rule out any options to address “clearly excessive volatility” seen in the yen.Officials from the Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Financial Services Agency (FSA) met the same day to discuss the slide.”The arguments from the BoJ that a lower currency is net beneficial for the economy starts to ring hollow when the cost of living is still rising, given those energy prices that have been exacerbated by a much weaker yen,” said NAB’s Catril.The Australian and New Zealand dollars also made early gains in Asia trade, recovering from dips overnight.The Aussie was up 0.55% to $0.6788, while the kiwi was up 0.47% to $0.6084, though the two antipodean currencies were on track for another weekly loss. More

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) -Mexican economic growth is expected to hit 3% in 2023, up from 2.4% this year, amid cooling inflation, the federal government’s budget document showed on Thursday, above the Bank of Mexico’s growth forecast of 1.6% for the coming year.The budget forecast tax revenues of 4.6 trillion pesos ($231 billion) in 2023, and tight public spending, aiming to bring public debt to 49.4% of gross domestic product in 2023.Mexico’s finance minister Rogelio Ramirez de la O told Congress shortly before the document was published that the government is aiming for public debt to “remain on a stable and sustainable path.”That includes limiting the total foreign debt ceiling to $5.5 billion.Mexico’s oil prices, meanwhile, were seen averaging $68.70 per barrel in 2023 after hitting $93.60 this yearOil output was expected to advance to an average of 1.872 million barrels per day (bpd) from some 1.835 million bpd in 2022, the figures showed. Oil exports, however, were forecast to fall to an average of 784,000 bpd of oil in 2023, down from some 950,000 bpd this year, as the government seeks to refine more of its crude domestically to make the country more self-sufficient.Mexico’s peso currency was seen averaging 20.6 per dollar next year.The budget forecast annual inflation would ease to 3.2% by the end of 2023, while the Bank of Mexico has predicted consumer prices will slow to around its 3% target in the first quarter of 2024.The government also expects annual headline inflation to cool to 7.7% by December of this year, from more than 8.7% in the 12 months through August.President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Tuesday the budget would not contain any tax increases. The figures in the official budget were in line with a draft document seen by Reuters Wednesday.($1 = 19.9434 Mexican pesos) More

Total like-for-like retail sales increased by 3.6% in August compared with the same month last year and online sales fell by 0.6%, their first decline since March. “September’s results will show just how significant the pull-back in discretionary spending is likely to be this winter but clearly these results in August show that consumers are cutting their budgets,” BDO Head of Retail Sophie Michael said.”Consumers are deferring the purchase of big ticket items as households prioritise essential spend,” Michael said. Slower sales growth for fashion and lifestyle items raised concerns ahead of the autumn and Christmas periods, she said.However, economists say Britain’s high inflation rate – which hit 10.1% in July – now looks likely to slow after new Prime Minister Liz Truss announced a plan on Thursday to cap surging household energy prices. More