Aurelia Butler

In an interview with Mexican news outlet Excelsior, Esquivel said the bank’s board “may need to go a little further in the restrictive zone” to guarantee lower inflation.Esquivel posted a link to the interview on his Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) feed. More

Good evening,What can we learn from the latest round of data on global labour markets and their implications for monetary policy?Official figures from the US today showed jobs growth slowing in August after a bumper July, but still with a healthy 315,000 new posts. However, the unemployment rate edged up from 3.5 per cent to 3.7 per cent.“The labour market is moving in the right direction for policymakers,” said one economist. “An uptick in unemployment along with a modest increase in the participation rate means that the labour market in August is less tight than it was in July.”Data earlier this week indicated there were roughly two vacancies per employed worker, with many firms still struggling with shortages. Wages in turn are rising as companies compete for staff, fuelling concerns of a wage-price spiral as businesses charge more for their products, leading workers to demand even higher pay.

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Across the Atlantic, new eurozone data yesterday showed the unemployment rate falling below 6.6 per cent of the workforce for the first time.The strength of the labour market and the risk of wages rising sharply have fuelled calls for the European Central Bank to accelerate interest rate rises, with a possible 0.75 percentage point increase next week. Eurozone inflation is currently at a record 9.1 per cent, way above the ECB’s target of 2 per cent.Australia is applying a different approach to labour shortages — the country has the second worst record in the OECD after Canada — by increasing the pool of workers.Its home affairs minister announced today that it would allow tens of thousands more immigrants into the country and ease its dependence on lower-paid temporary workers as part of its response to the “global war for talent”.One Australian MP said the country risked a “brain drain” unless its visa system was improved. “We have too many engineers that are Uber drivers at the moment and yet we have skill shortages,” she said. Latest newsUS labour chief says jobs market can withstand Fed rate hikes (Bloomberg)All French nuclear reactors to restart by winter (AP)Russia’s Gazprom set to resume Nord Stream 1 gas flows as planned (Reuters)For up-to-the-minute news updates, visit our live blogNeed to know: the economyG7 countries have backed a price cap on Russian oil to limit the Kremlin’s earnings from energy and its ability to wage war in Ukraine. Russian president Vladimir Putin said yesterday that Moscow would stop selling oil to any countries attempting to do so.The EU has reached an agreement with member states to advance a €5bn loan to Ukraine as part of a €9bn package to prop up Kyiv’s finances.Latest for the UK and EuropeSterling in August had its worst monthly fall against the dollar since the Brexit referendum against a backdrop of economic and political uncertainty. Outgoing UK prime minister Boris Johnson used his final speech to defend his handling of the pandemic, while the FT editorial board said Liz Truss — the favourite to succeed him — would need to junk some of her ideological rigidity to deal with a worsening crisis. The next British PM will be announced on Monday. In the meantime, here’s what business wants from the new leader.UK campaigners have warned that the number of households in fuel poverty would more than double in January to at least 12mn unless the new prime minister takes “immediate” action to help with bills. Brussels has reiterated its warnings about the UK ditching the Northern Ireland protocol, the agreement which governs trade relations between the province, the rest of the UK and the EU, calling it a “provocative act”.Eurozone industrial producer prices rose by a record 37.9 per cent in the year to July, driven by a huge 97.2 per cent jump in the cost of energy. Here’s how Brussels plans to reduce electricity prices.Don’t miss your chance to join the FTWeekend Festival online or in-person tomorrow. There’s a great line up of speakers, including two former UK health secretaries, as well as experts on how to eat and live well, not to mention culture, politics, and big ideas. Get your discounted ticket at ft.com/festival using the code “Festival2022”.Global latestCommentator Martin Sandbu discusses an overlooked aspect of the energy shock: the “astounding” transfer of money from energy importers to exporters. To take one example: Saudi Arabian exports over the previous five years were around $20bn a month, but since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine this has shot up to $40bn.Also benefiting is Joe Biden, says our Energy Source newsletter. The US president has managed a turnround in the political narrative as petrol prices fall, his climate bill passes and American shale oil and gas insulate the country from the kind of doomy prognosis engulfing Europe.One of the beneficiaries from China’s slowdown — PMI data yesterday showed manufacturing activity shrank in August — has been the environment. The country’s carbon emissions fell 8 per cent in the second quarter, the fourth consecutive drop for the world’s biggest emitter. Drought however is causing serious problems for hydroelectric power.Argentina’s vice-president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, one of Latin America’s best-known politicians, survived an assassination attempt after her attacker’s gun failed to fire. Political tension has been rising this year as inflation heads towards 90 per cent a year and the peso plunges in value on the black market.Zambia’s $1.3bn IMF bailout will be a test of how the fund responds to the wave of debt distress in countries that have borrowed heavily from China.Need to know: businessThe UK’s top chicken producer said it would have to pay £1mn a week extra for carbon dioxide to stun birds for slaughter after a supplier pushed up prices following the end of production at CF Industries, the country’s biggest supplier. As well as the poultry and pig industries, CO₂ is also crucial for brewing, carbonated drinks production, food packaging and refrigeration.New “anti-woke” investment funds with names such as “Maga” and “God Bless America” are facing scrutiny from US regulators over whether their titles are fully compatible with their portfolios. US editor-at-large Gillian Tett says Republican targeting of ESG laws is bad for business.Russian banks lost Rbs1.5tn ($25bn) in the first half of 2022 after western sanctions cut the country out of large parts of the global financial system, preventing them from trading in the dollar, euro and other convertible currencies and leading to losses on currency swaps.India is stepping up efforts in chipmaking as geopolitical tensions continue to wreak havoc on global supply chains. As our Big Read explains, the country is keen to offer itself as a democratic alternative tech hub to China. The US is restricting exports of top Nvidia chips used in artificial intelligence to China and Russia.Science round-upMelbourne could become a global centre for developing new antiviral therapies to deal with future pandemics after receiving the largest donation in Australian medical history. “We wanted to create a second shield for humanity,” said donor Geoff Cumming.US regulators cleared vaccines by Moderna and BioNTech/Pfizer targeting the dominant strain of the Omicron variant as well as the original strain of coronavirus despite a lack of human trials. The EU followed suit, paving the way for the messenger RNA jabs to be rolled out in autumn, when authorities expect cases to rise.Experts believe China’s zero-Covid policy will continue into next year, while hopes are pinned on a “super vaccine” that could stop the disease from spreading or a weaker mutation emerging with less serious health consequences. The megacity of Chengdu is the latest to be locked down.Covid-19 has also generated an “epidemiological aftershock”, leaving people susceptible to a large range of other conditions and piling extra pressure on already stretched health systems. Global health editor Sarah Neville’s Big Read lays out the challenges ahead.Get the latest worldwide picture with our vaccine trackerSome good newsFrom a new era of astronomy to a possible end to animal testing, 2022 is proving to be a great year for positive science stories. Here’s our top five.A young, star-forming region captured by the newly operational James Webb Space Telescope © Nasa, ESA, CSA, STScI More

The emergency funding request will also include $2 billion to address the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine on U.S. energy supplies, Shalanda Young, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB), wrote in blog post. The $47.1 billion request comes ahead of the conclusion of the 2022 fiscal year on Sept 30. Congress has not yet passed a 2023 funding bill, and Young said lawmakers would likely need to pass a stopgap funding measure allowing them more time to negotiate a more comprehensive fiscal package. The White House’s requests for the stopgap measure, known as a continuing resolution (CR), will also include $3.9 billion in funding to fight against an outbreak of the monkeypox virus and $6.5 billion for natural disaster relief, Young wrote. Congress is expected to grapple with CR discussions to keep the government fully operating beyond Sept. 30 when lawmakers return from summer recess next week. The CR legislation could become an avenue for Congress to include Biden’s emergency requests, known as anomalies. It is also an opportunity for Congress to quickly approve such funds while Democrats and Republicans argue about spending priorities for the full fiscal year.The Biden administration has received bipartisan support in giving Ukraine more than $13.5 billion in security assistance since January 2021. Young said around three-quarters of Congress-approved aid for the country has been committed or disbursed. “We have rallied the world to support the people of Ukraine as they defend their democracy and we cannot allow that support to Ukraine to run dry,” Young said. More

BENGALURU (Reuters) – The German economy is on track to contract for three consecutive quarters starting from this one, according to a Reuters poll of economists, following a dramatic spike in gas prices after Russia slashed deliveries to Europe. Europe’s largest economy and manufacturing powerhouse is among the most vulnerable to any cut-off in energy supplies or rising costs as its industrial sector relies heavily on Russian gas.The Aug. 29-Sept. 1 Reuters poll showed Germany would see three consecutive quarters of negative growth, surpassing the definition of a technical recession which only requires two.As most of the euro zone grapples with the energy crisis, medians in the poll suggested the German economy would shrink 0.1% and 0.3% in the third and fourth quarters this year, and 0.2% in the first quarter of next year.That is a sharp turnaround from expectations of 0.2%, 0.3% and 0.4% quarterly growth as recently as July.”Gas prices are moving from one astronomic high to the other and will lead to unprecedentedly high energy bills over the winter,” noted Carsten Brzeski of ING.”Even without a complete stop to Russian gas, high energy and food prices will weigh heavily on consumers and industry, making a technical recession – at least – inevitable.” The economy was then forecast to grow 0.4% in the second quarter followed by 0.6% and 0.5% growth in the following quarters next year.On average, the German economy was expected to grow 1.5% this year and then slow to 0.1% next, median forecasts from 34 economists showed.The energy crisis has already triggered a 400% surge in wholesale gas prices over the last year, hurting energy intensive sectors from metal output to fertilizer production.With inflation rising to a near 50-year high of 8.8% in August and soaring energy bills eroding the purchasing power of households, pressure is building on the European Central Bank to go for bigger interest rate hikes.Indeed, the latest Reuters poll showed economists were split between a 50 basis point or a jumbo 75 basis hike from the ECB at the Sept. 8 policy meeting. However, expectations were now rapidly shifting towards a larger move. [ECILT/EU]Rising energy bills, devastating droughts and low water levels have worsened the cost of living crisis in the euro zone, signalling a painful recession during the winter. (For other stories from the Reuters global economic poll: More

Shares in UK housebuilders slumped to their lowest level in almost a decade on Friday after HSBC published analysis predicting house prices in London could fall by as much as 15 per cent.The research forecasts that demand for UK housing will fall 20 per cent from this autumn because of rising mortgage rates and inflation.HSBC expects average UK house prices will fall 7.5 per cent outside London, while prices in central London will drop by twice that. For new build homes, the research forecasts a 5 per cent drop.The HSBC note accelerated a drop in the shares of the country’s biggest developers, which have already suffered average declines of 40 per cent this year.Shares of Redrow, Barratt Developments and Berkeley Group were down between 4 per cent and 7 per cent in morning trading on Friday after the note.Expectations that UK house prices will begin to fall have been steadily growing in recent months, as the Bank of England has pushed up interest rates in an effort to tackle steeply rising inflation. Rising borrowing costs have made it harder for buyers to access the market and have added to a growing list of problems for listed developers, which have been hit by the withdrawal of key government support measures in recent months and the economic downturn.Since the last financial crisis, housebuilders have enjoyed near-uninterrupted profit growth and buoyant share prices. The sector even remained resilient during the pandemic, recovering strongly from a correction when the market was closed early in 2020. By later that year, demand had recovered to hit fresh highs.But after a long period of growth, underpinned by low interest rates and government support, the market is showing signs of cooling. HSBC analysts now expect earnings before interest and tax at the UK’s biggest listed builders to fall by between 32 per cent and 53 per cent — with an average of 43 per cent — by 2023-24 compared with 2022.Rob Perrins, chief executive of London-focused developer Berkeley, said there were “tough times to come”, but added that the bank was far too pessimistic about the market, particularly in the capital.“I think we’ll have some choppy times, but to say demand is going to fall off that amount is wrong,” he said. More