Aurelia Butler

Poland’s access to 23.9 billion euros ($23.8 billion) in grants and 11.5 billion euros in cheap loans had been blocked due to a dispute over judicial independence.But in June the European Commission said it was approving Poland’s recovery plan, opening the way for Warsaw to get the cash. The move was approved by the Council of the EU, consisting of European economy and finance ministers.Four European associations – the Association of European Administrative Judges (AEAJ), the European Association of Judges (EAJ), Rechters voor Rechters and Magistrats Européens pour la Démocratie et les Libertés (MEDEL) – challenged the decision in the General Court of the EU.”This application seeks the annulment of the Council’s decision … on the grounds that the rule of law ‘milestones’ … fall short of what is required to ensure the effective judicial protection and disregard the judgements of the Court of Justice of the EU on the matter,” they said.The associations said their legal action did not automatically suspend the effects of the Council’s decision to approve the recovery plan but they said they might lodge interim measures seeking such a suspension.A Polish government spokesman said the Council’s decision remained valid and said the associations’ legal action was “groundless”.The Commission has long been at loggerheads with Poland’s ruling nationalists, accusing them of undercutting democracy. The Commission froze Warsaw’s access to the recovery money until it reversed some changes they made to the country’s judiciary.Poland adopted a law in May that replaced a controversial disciplinary chamber for judges with a new body. The EU said this had not addressed all problematic issues, although it said an official assessment had been made yet.($1 = 1.0039 euros) More

Hello and welcome to the working week. I’m helming today’s newsletter while Jonathan takes a break. We are approaching the end of August, characteristically known as the “silly season” when the news cycle slows, Britons go on holiday and politics takes a break. But this summer, the pace of frightful headlines has felt relentless, and the want for the UK government to return to action has never been stronger. While the country must hang on until September 5 for the Tories to install their new leader, the cost of living crisis deepens by the day. Inflation is forecast to reach 18 per cent, fuel bills are rising inexorably and colossal backlogs in the NHS are causing unusually high excess deaths. Industrial discontent has spread from the railways to the docks, post offices, law courts and even to funeral parlours. The honeymoon period that the new prime minister will enjoy will feel more like a budget mini-break. Europe is bracing for a further energy squeeze this week as Russia halts gas supplies through its largest pipeline to Germany for three days of maintenance work from Wednesday. Nord Stream 1 was already running at only 20 per cent capacity. Fears that the flow of gas will not resume afterwards, which alarmed German officials the first time this happened, have resurfaced. But good news can be found farther from home. Fifty years after the Apollo landings, humans are preparing to go back to the moon. Tomorrow, Nasa’s colossal rocket, the Space Launch System, will blast off from Florida in an unmanned test flight. It stands 100m tall, or as high as a 32-storey building. If successful, this first mission will make way for future human exploration in space as part of Nasa’s programme Artemis, named after the Greek moon goddess who was the twin of the Sun god Apollo.Don’t miss the annual FT Weekend festival in London next weekend, which is packed with fantastic live debates, tastings and more. You can attend online or in person. The Week Ahead newsletter subscribers can get a £20 discount using the promo code FTWFxNewsletters at: ft.com/ftwf.Economic dataIn the US, we have data on job openings and quits, plus unemployment and non-farm payrolls statistics on Friday. Last month, the surprisingly hot labour figures were enough for the Biden administration to dismiss concerns of a downturn in the world’s largest economy.Minutes from the latest meeting of the European Central Bank governing council, published a few days ago, showed concerns about soaring prices were mounting. The bank’s rate-setters noted a growing number of upside risks to inflation, which hit a record for the eurozone of 8.9 per cent in July. Flash inflation estimates by Eurostat, the European Commission’s statistics bureau, on Wednesday may compound the likelihood of another 50 basis point increase on September 8.CompaniesQuarterly results from China’s three biggest airlines will land this week, weighing in on assessments of just how disruptive President Xi Jinping’s zero-Covid policy has been to travel in the country. A sudden lockdown in the Hainan island this month has resulted in thousands of stranded travellers, denting tourist confidence in the world’s biggest consumer market and hopes of an early rebound, according to analysts. Any further hit to domestic mobility and discretionary spending in China will cause headaches for economic planners in Beijing. Sticking to China, on Wednesday Baidu will drop its second quarter report, and the central bank will publish first half figures. Gazprom will release its quarterly figures tomorrow. Key economic and company reportsHere is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.MondayHong Kong, monthly property dataSpain, annual meeting of the Central Bank Research Association takes place at the Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Ciutadella Campus, Barcelona, SpainVietnam, monthly inflation, trade, industrial output dataResults: Fortescue Metals Group Q4, Gazprom Q2, Massmart (HY), Continental and Sun Pharma hold their annual general meetingsTuesday Germany, preliminary consumer price index for AugustJapan, monthly crude oil imports data and monthly unemployment rateUK, British Retail Consortium monthly economic briefing and Bank of England monthly money and credit figuresUS, consumer confidence figures, job openings and quits for July, and Federal Housing Finance agency monthly and quarterly house price index Results: Air China Q2, Baidu Q2, Bank of China HY, Best Buy Q2, Bunzl HY, China Eastern Airlines Q2, China Southern Airlines Q2, CrowdStrike Q2, GoTo Q2, Harmony Gold FY, HP Q3, Old Mutual interim, Petronas Q2, Woodside Energy Group HYWednesdayCanada, monthly GDP figures for June Eurostat, the EU statistics agency, flash euro area inflation figures, economic sentiment indicator and business climate indicator for August. European Commission issues full business and consumer survey resultsFrance, monthly consumer price index preliminary results and producer price indexGermany, monthly labour market figures for AugustIndia, GDP figures for Q2Italy, monthly consumer price index preliminary results and producer price indexJapan, retail figures for July and Bank of Japan policy board member Junko Nakagawa gives speech at a meeting with local leaders in HakodateKenya, August inflation data Mexico, central bank publishes quarterly report on inflation and growthUganda, August inflation dataUK, FTSE Group’s quarterly review of the FTSE UK Index seriesResults: Aspen FY, Brown-Forman Corporation Q1, Dalata Hotel Group HY, Lukoil Q2, SpiceJet Q4 & Q1, Veeva Systems Q2, Woolworths FYThursdayEurostat, unemployment figures for JulyGermany, retail figures for July Italy, unemployment figures for July UK, Nationwide releases its monthly housing survey for August, Bank of England monthly decision maker panel dataUS, construction spending S&P Global, manufacturing PMI for Germany, Italy, au Jibun Bank Japan, UK, USResults: Broadcom Q3, Campbell Soup FY, Hormel Foods Q3, Pernod Ricard Q4, Lululemon Q2FridayEurostat, industrial producer prices in the domestic market for JulyGermany, import pricesUS, monthly unemployment figures including non-farm payrolls data World eventsFinally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week. Monday Brazil, presidential candidates take part in TV debateCzech Republic, EU ministers meet in Prague to discuss banning EU visas for Russians. Finland, Estonia and the Czech Republic are among the countries that have called for Brussels to implement an EU-wide ban on new tourist visas for Russians to enter the Schengen free travel area.Norway, Offshore Northern Seas oil and gas conference UK, summer bank holiday. Final day of an eight-day strike by 1,900 workers at the port of Felixstowe, the UK’s major port. Industrial action by Unite union members at Cooperative Funeral Care also comes to a close today.US, US Open Tennis Championships begins in New York City. Mega rocket Space Launch System lifts off for a test flight in the first mission of Nasa’s Artemis programme.Tuesday Czech Republic, EU ministers meet to discuss Russian aggression against Ukraine and its impact on the security of EU member statesEuropean Parliament committee for the inquiry into the use of Pegasus and equivalent surveillance spyware meets in Brussels, following the Greek wiretap scandal involving Nikos Androulakis, an MEP and the leader of the opposition Pasok partyKenya, president-elect William Ruto expected to be sworn in. However, the presidential contender Raila Odinga filed a petition to the country’s top court earlier this week challenging Ruto’s victory in this month’s election and demanding a rerun.Russia plans to hold strategic military exercises in the east of the country with China, India and other Asian countries Switzerland, the 10th meeting of States Parties to the UN Convention on Cluster Munitions takes place in GenevaTurkey, Victory DayUK, about 40,000 BT and Openreach members of the Communication Workers Union (CWU) go on a 48-hour strike from today in a dispute over pay. BT Group members of the CWU held the first round of industrial action on July 29 and August 1US, former president Barack Obama speaks at National Democratic Redistricting Committee fundraising event in Martha’s VineyardWednesday Europe, Nord Stream 1 pipeline to shut for three daysKyrgyzstan, Independence DayMalaysia, Independence DayPakistan, the former prime minister Imran Khan will appear in court as prosecutors consider charging him with contempt following a weekend speech in which he threatened police officers and a magistrateTrinidad and Tobago, Independence DayUK, Communication Workers Union members go on strike for a second day. US senator Bernie Sanders is expected to join the RMT rally in London in support of public transport workers. More than 1,000 Reach journalists walk out in a second strike day organised by the National Union of Journalists. Another two-day strike is planned for September 14-15. Reach’s UK titles include the Daily Mirror, Daily Express and Manchester Evening News. UK, in the evening, the final Conservative party hustings takes place. The leadership candidates Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak vie for support from Tory party membersThursdayThe European Medicines Agency meets to review new vaccine boosters by Moderna and BioNTech/Pfizer, which have been adapted to target the Omicron variantChina, Shanghai will reopen all schools after months of Covid-19 closuresUK, most schools return after the summer holidayUzbekistan, National Day holidayFridayPortugal, European Parliament president Roberta Metsola visits the countryUK, chancellor Nadhim Zahawi speaks about the priorities facing the next prime minister at a debate organised by the think-tank Policy ExchangeSaturdayQatar, National Day holidayUS, former president Donald Trump will take to the stage at a Republican rally in Pennsylvania in support of candidates Doug Mastriano and Mehmet Oz in their midterm election campaignsSundayChile, referendum to approve or reject a new constitution to replace the one enacted in 1980 by the regime of dictator Augusto Pinochet Germany, annual conference of World Association of the Major Metropolises More

Will jobs data signal a soft landing for the US economy?US jobs data for August are expected to come in lower than those for July, but remain in expansion territory — reflecting a 20th straight month of growth.Economists project that figures on Friday will show the US added 290,000 jobs in August, marking a 45 per cent drop after July’s figure of 528,000 significantly surpassed estimates.Jennifer Lee, a senior economist at the Bank of Montreal, said the August consensus reflects a sea change for employers, who may still need more workers, but have adjusted their expectations in a tight labour market where the unemployment rate sits at historical lows. BMO expects 250,000 jobs to have been added.“Let’s say you were looking for 12 people to hire and you’ve been finding it very difficult to find the right people,” Lee said. “You might be thinking, do I really need another 12 people to hire? Maybe we can get by with only six [hires] . . . and squeeze a little bit more out of the existing workforce.”Strong worker demand, combined with a recent durable goods report that reflected a monthly uptick in business investment, are indicators to Lee that the US economy is holding up even as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to cool it.Even as big retailers have cut their full-year guidance, they have still reported strong sales figures that signal resilience in US consumer spending. Macy’s and Nordstrom have in recent days topped analysts’ expectations for quarterly revenues, and Home Depot reported record-high quarterly sales earlier in August.Lee said she expects a “significant slowdown” in the US economy in the second half of 2022 and into 2023, but is not ready to call this a recession.“If it’s a recession, it’ll be the strangest one ever,” she said. Jaren KerrHave soaring natural gas prices propelled eurozone inflation even higher?Eurozone inflation data for August will be closely scrutinised next week as investors question how far the European Central Bank will need to tighten monetary policy against a backdrop of soaring energy costs.Escalating oil and natural gas prices, stoked by Russia’s war in Ukraine, pushed eurozone inflation to 8.9 per cent in July. Economists polled by Reuters expect that figure to reach 9 per cent when data are released on Wednesday.Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank, said increasing gas prices have caused investors to have a “real negative sentiment surrounding the eurozone that has built up over the past few weeks”. Contracts linked to TTF, Europe’s wholesale natural gas price, hit a record high on Friday above €343 a megawatt hour.The ECB is expected to raise interest rates by at least 0.5 percentage points at its September meeting in an effort to tackle record inflation. But investors are concerned that higher borrowing costs risk tipping the region into recession.Germany’s central bank chief has already warned that inflation will not subside by 2023 and that the record energy prices triggered by Russia’s supply squeeze would push the country’s inflation to above 10 per cent by the autumn. Nikou AsgariDid UK mortgage approvals drop further in July?UK mortgage approvals are expected to have fallen further in July, continuing a downward trend caused by rising mortgage rates and historically high inflation.Economists polled by Reuters expect the Bank of England to reveal that 61,750 mortgages were approved last month, down from 63,726 in June and from a peak of more than 100,000 in November 2020.Bucking the trend, Sandra Horsfield, an economist at Investec, expects a small increase [to 64,100] but added that “their trend is still pointing down — a picture that, as long as interest rates are rising steeply and economic prospects and confidence are deteriorating, should remain in place”.In June, the Bank of England’s data showed that the interest rate on newly drawn mortgages increased by 20 basis points (0.2 percentage points) to 2.15 per cent, the highest since 2016, following six consecutive policy interest rate increases by the BoE. Market pricing implies expectations that the policy rate will more than double to 4 per cent by early next year from its current level of 1.75 per cent, as energy and consumer prices continue to soar. As a result, consultancy Oxford Economics forecasts house prices will start shrinking on an annual basis from next year, down from the double-digit expansion of early this year.“Skyrocketing house prices are likely to feel the pull of gravity from the escalating cost of living crunch come autumn, with the impending rise to the energy price cap set to further fuel inflation and the spectre of higher interest rates to combat rising prices upping borrowing costs,” said Myron Jobson, senior personal finance analyst at investment service provider Interactive Investor. Valentina Romei More