Aurelia Butler

FRANKFURT (Reuters) – The European Central Bank will pull the plug on years of stimulus on Thursday and signal a string of rate hikes to fight surging inflation, leaving markets only to guess the size and speed of policy tightening.With inflation at a record-high 8.1% and broadening quickly, the ECB has already flagged a series of moves, hoping to stop rapid price growth from developing into a hard-to-break wage-price spiral. Details remain elusive, however, as predicting inflation has proven impossible, suggesting the ECB will only signal its initial steps on Thursday and maintain plenty of discretion further down the line.What appears certain is that the ECB will end its long-running Asset Purchase Programme at the end of this month, promise a rate hike on July 21 and signal that the deposit rate will be out of negative territory in the third quarter. Everything else, including the size of the initial rate increase from minus 0.5%, is likely to be left open, with ECB chief Christine Lagarde emphasizing flexibility and optionality. While the bank has signalled a preference for 25-basis-point hikes, the energy-driven surge in prices could change that in just weeks. A handful of policymakers have already said that a bigger increase needs to remain in play. Supporting their case, new economic projections from the ECB are likely to indicate that inflation across the 19 countries that use the euro will hold above its 2% target through 2024, pointing to four straight years of overshooting.”The likelihood of a 50-basis-point hike is rising by the day,” Moody’s (NYSE:MCO) Analytics senior economist Kamil Kovar said.”We currently view a 50-basis-point hike in July as possible but unlikely. In contrast, a 50-basis-point hike in September is as likely as it is unlikely at this point.” “It is even possible that the bank will resort to multiple 50-basis-point hikes,” he said.Markets are pricing in 135 basis points of rate hikes by the end of this year, or an increase at every meeting from July, with some of the moves in excess of 25 basis points. That leaves the ECB in a tricky position, just months after Lagarde said that a rate hike this year was highly unlikely. If she ignores markets, even more aggressive tightening might be priced in, unnecessarily pushing up borrowing costs. But if she pushes back strongly, the ECB president might signal a commitment that could become obsolete within weeks, much like the no rate increase pledge. The ECB’s first rate hike in over a decade would still leave it trailing most of its global peers, including the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, which have been raising aggressively and promising even more action. “The hawkish pivot begins,” Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) said in a note. “We expect the ECB to leave the door open to 50 basis points in July and September by signalling that negative rates will end during the third quarter.” WHERE DOES IT END?While the start of policy tightening is now set, the end point remains uncertain.Lagarde has said that rates should move towards the neutral point at which the ECB is neither simulating nor holding back growth. But this level is undefined and unobservable, leaving investors guessing just how far the ECB wants to go.”In our view, the ‘neutral’ rate … is around 2%,” Berenberg economist Holger Schmieding said. “We expect the ECB’s main refinancing rate – currently 0.0% – to reach this level in mid-2024 after three rate hikes of 25 basis points in the second half of 2022, three such moves in 2023 and two further increases in the first half of 2024.”The main refinancing rate is formally the ECB’s benchmark but it has used the rate on its overnight deposit facilities for banks as its main policy rate for much of the past decade given that banks have piled up hundreds of billions of euros worth of excess liquidity. Another question is how the ECB will handle the divergence in borrowing costs of various member states. Nations with bigger debt piles, such as Italy, Spain and Greece, have already seen a sharper increase in borrowing costs – a headache for the ECB’s one-size-fits-all monetary policy.While the ECB promised to fight “unwarranted fragmentation” it has yet to define unwarranted and has not said what action it would take to tackle it. Lagarde could clarify these points but she is unlikely to announce a specific tool on Thursday, emphasizing instead the ECB’s flexibility and commitment to act quickly in case of market turmoil. More

Private equity posted stellar returns last year as trillions of dollars in pandemic-related stimulus prompted a record surge in deal-making with overall deal value in 2021 doubling from previous years, according to industry estimates.In contrast, fixed income faced a torrid year as near zero interest rates sapped its attractiveness as a safe haven during market turmoil while sky-high valuations in volatile equity markets deterred investors.Investments into private equity by the world’s wealthiest families, increased consistently between 2019 and 2021, according to a survey for the UBS report of 221 family offices overseeing $493 billion in assets.Direct allocations as a percentage of their total investments rose to 13% in 2021 from 10% the previous year while indirect allocations were 8% last year versus 7%. Meanwhile, fixed income investments declined by two percentage points in 2021 to 11% from the previous year while equity investments were steady around 24%. Even real estate investments, a traditional favourite, slipped to 12% last year from 13% in 2020.UBS’ wealth management arm manages more than $3 trillion in assets. It has famously stated it banks more than half the world’s billionaires.The report is widely watched by the investment community as it shines a light into the investing habits of these billionaire investors.About 63% of the family offices surveyed said they no longer felt high-quality fixed income helped diversify their overall portfolio risk. A majority also were relying on active manager strategies rather than taking the passive route.About 81% of the family offices surveyed had invested nearly 3% into cryptocurrencies, primarily to learn about the technology and generate better investment returns. More

The premier, seen as fiscally cautious before he became leader, has signed off on changes to an annual fiscal policy plan that loosen rather than tighten the corset constraining the nation’s spending plans. And this is for an economy that already has the developed world’s largest public debt load.The government has dropped its reference to a target to balance Japan’s books by the year ending March 2026 and its language on inflation is sounding a lot more aligned with the BOJ as it seeks to achieve price growth “in a stable and sustainable manner.”  While there are still no price tags on Kishida’s New Capitalism measures or his ramped-up spending on defense, the changes to the policy plan suggest he is maximizing scope for flexibility if he wants to splash out and the central bank will need to play its part by making further borrowing affordable.“The BOJ has already become a part of debt management policy from the government’s point of view,” said Ryutaro Kono, chief Japan economist at BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY) SA. “Yield curve control makes policy makers wrongly assume that the cost of spending is zero.”The immediate takeaway is that the government still wants the BOJ to stick with a current policy stance that keeps a cap on 10-year government debt yields, even if that means the yen weakens further. The changes also suggest the prime minister won’t likely be pushing so hard for regime change at the central bank when Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s term ends next April. In that sense, Kishida’s view on monetary policy is looking a lot more like the Abenomics policies of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe than something new.Still, the changes may also mean Kishida has a longer game-plan in mind and is ensuring support within his party and the public before an election in July that could provide him the three-year time frame to show his true colors and to bring real change to Japan’s economy.Read More: Kishida Could Rule Japan for Years After Proving Doubters WrongMany economists simply see old spending tendencies returning.“Chances are high that he is no longer someone who favors fiscal discipline,” Kiichi Murashima and Katsuhiko Aiba, economists at Citigroup (NYSE:C), wrote in a report last week. “There is an increasing risk that government finances will deteriorate as he goes with policies that try to benefit everyone in an attempt to please everyone.”Shouji Nishida, head of a pro-spending group in the party with ties to Abe, said dropping the calendar-based goal is a clear sign of change and that Japan is heading toward more aggressive fiscal policy. It also shows his group’s viewpoint gaining traction within the Liberal Democratic Party, said Nishida, an advocate of Modern Monetary Theory.Taking a more orthodox stance, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said there has been no change in the government’s fiscal target.The version of the plan from the prime minister’s office was revised extensively by party officials, according to an LDP heavyweight, who spoke on condition of anonymity.The comments suggest that Kishida is allowing the party to have more say on policy than Abe or former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. Kishida has said one of his main strengths is his “ability to listen.”Regarding the role of the BOJ, Abe recently described the central bank as a subsidiary of the government, signaling no need for concern about public debt. The former leader has also helped drive the calls for increased spending on defense. The government said it would considerably strengthen defense over the next five years in the policy guideline.  “Japan is a rare case among major economies,” said Yuichi Kodama, chief economist at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute. “The talk of spending goes on and on without any discussion of how it will be funded. They just end up racking up more government debt.”The BOJ is currently capping 10-year bond yields at 0.25% by conducting unlimited bond-buying operations every business day. That has helped the yen to hit 133 per dollar, its lowest level since April 2002, as Japan’s interest rates diverge from rising levels in the US and elsewhere.Since Kuroda took the helm in 2013, the benchmark 10-year rate has stayed below 1%, containing borrowing costs for a government weighed down by more than 1,200 trillion yen ($9 trillion) of public debt. Kuroda has repeatedly said BOJ policy is all about achieving its inflation target and is not intended to help the government finance spending.The debt servicing costs account for more than a fifth of this fiscal year’s 107.6 trillion yen annual budget. The finance ministry has estimated that those costs would increase by as much as 3.7 trillion yen by fiscal 2025 if interest rates in Japan go up by 1%. The BOJ is also helping the nation’s finances more directly through profits from its asset holdings. The national treasury received 1.26 trillion yen from the BOJ in fiscal 2021, the most since 2001, according to a central bank financial statement released last month.“Yield curve control is a sin,” Kono said. “Politicians just get hooked on spending, leaving the BOJ unable to make any exit without careful consideration of its impact on the nation’s finances.”©2022 Bloomberg L.P. More

The Japanese yen fell to a new 20-year low against the dollar on Wednesday, pushed down by expectations that the Bank of Japan will defy global trends and keep monetary policy loose. The yen dropped as much as 1.4 per cent against the US currency, taking it past ¥134 per dollar. It has declined roughly 4 per cent this month and has in recent days neared its weakest level since early 2002. The move came after the governor of the BoJ said that consumers had become “more tolerant” of price rises, comments that he later retracted. Speaking at the FT’s Global Boardroom event, Haruhiko Kuroda said that a weakening yen would boost the profits of Japanese companies. In stark contrast to other major central banks, the BoJ has decided against tightening monetary policy in recent months. “The dollar has seen a meteoric rise versus the Japanese yen over the past three months as the Bank of Japan maintains a dovish policy stance relative to the Federal Reserve,” strategists at Bespoke Investment Group said on Wednesday.Thank you for reading First FT Asia — do share your feedback with us at [email protected]. — EmilyFive more stories in the news1. SEC chief launches review of ‘uneven’ US equities market Gary Gensler has outlined plans for an overhaul of what he described as an “uneven” and unfair US equity market, drawing fire from traders that have flourished under the current system. Gensler said he had asked agency staff to consider significant changes, including a possible auction process to increase competition between services for retail investors.Related read: SEC aims to stem the trading practice of “payment for order flow”.2. Twitter to share data with Musk Twitter has agreed to share a vast trove of data about the content on its platform with Elon Musk, after the billionaire entrepreneur threatened to abandon his $44bn acquisition of the social media company if it did not provide more information about fake accounts and bots. A shareholder vote on the deal is expected by early August, according to a person familiar with the situation. 3. Iran removed UN cameras from nuclear facility The UN nuclear watchdog board of governors voted overwhelmingly in favour of a resolution criticising Iran for failing to co-operate sufficiently over its undeclared sites after it emerged yesterday that Iran had removed two cameras belonging to the UN atomic watchdog from one of its nuclear facilities.4. UN warns of hunger risk Hundreds of millions of people are at risk of “hunger and destitution” because of food shortages due to the Ukraine war, the chief of the UN warned, as talks stalled over ending Russia’s blockade of Black Sea grain shipments.5. Moderna reports positive data for Omicron Covid booster Moderna has said its new two-strain Covid-19 booster increases people’s immunity against the dominant Omicron variant, bolstering the company’s hopes to roll it out as a fourth dose in the late summer. The US biotech company is the first to report preliminary results from a clinical trial of a vaccine targeted to Omicron.

Many governments are still debating who should receive a fourth dose of a Covid vaccine © Micah Green/Bloomberg

The day aheadChina trade balance figures Data for May is set to be released today. Earlier this week, data showed that the US trade balance narrowed by the most in more than nine years. The drop in imports is likely, at least in part, caused by lockdowns in China due to Covid-19. (Reuters) ECB ends easy money era When Christine Lagarde sets out the European Central Bank’s plans to end eight years of bond-buying and negative interest rates, she can count on the support of the vast majority of her fellow rate-setters.January 6 committee hearings On Thursday the House committee investigating the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol will share what it has learned. Here’s how to watch. (WaPo) Opinion: The spirit of Watergate will be missing from audiences for the televised January 6 hearings, writes Edward Luce.What else we’re reading and listening toHow space debris could threaten modern life After 65 years of space flight, the area around Earth is littered with 9,000 metric tonnes of debris, according to Nasa, all zooming uncontrollably around at 25,000km an hour. Check out our impressive interactive graphic on the increasing threat posed by space junk.Blowing the whistle on ESG In this week’s episode of FT’s Behind the Money podcast, host Michela Tindera talks to a former executive who raised red flags on DWS’s misleading claims about its “green” financial products. FT’s Patrick Temple-West joins to explain what this moment means for the future of environmental, social and governance investing. Sign up here to receive our sustainable finance newsletter, Moral Money.Is the global housing market heading for a downturn? Interest rate rises are cooling house price growth in both Europe and the US, but experts cite several reasons for relative optimism. Experts expect rate rises to end the rapid, two-year surge in house prices and price growth to slow down sharply.

Japan and South Korea seek a relationship reset Quiet discussions are under way to arrange what would be the first meeting of a Japanese prime minister and South Korean president since late 2019, and a chance to set aside historic disputes to focus on the pressing challenges of an emboldened China and nuclear-armed North Korea.A new pop song represents Iran’s efforts to embrace the young “Hello Commander! Hello from this fearless left behind generation.” The Islamic republic’s latest revolutionary hymn may lack something when it comes to artistic merit, but the government seems to hope it will help create a loyal new generation.TechnologyAs global economic forces are playing havoc with stock, Leo Lewis recounts his fight with his family over a PS5, and weighs in on the household debate over getting a new console.

© Akio Kon/Bloomberg More

For the first time ever Apple is moving some iPad production out of China and shifting it to Vietnam after strict Covid-19 lockdowns in and around Shanghai led to months of supply chain disruptions.The US company has also asked multiple component suppliers to build up their inventories to guard against future shortages and supply snags, sources said.China’s BYD, one of the leading iPad assemblers, has helped Apple build production lines in Vietnam and could soon start to produce a small number of the tablets there, people with knowledge of the matter said.Apple has long considered building some iPads outside of China, as reported by Nikkei Asia in January last year, but the sudden surge in Covid cases in Vietnam a few months later delayed plans to follow through.The iPad will become the second major line of Apple products made in the south-east Asian country, following the AirPods earbud series. The move highlights not only Apple’s continuous efforts to diversify its supply chain but also the growing importance of Vietnam to the company. Apple shipped 58mn iPads last year, with the vast majority of the device’s suppliers concentrated in China.To further guard against supply chain disruptions, Apple has also asked suppliers to build up additional stocks of components such as printed circuit boards and mechanical and electronics parts, especially those made in and around Shanghai, where Covid-related restrictions have led to shortages and logistic delays. In addition, the company has asked suppliers to move quickly to secure supplies of some chips, especially power-related ones, for its upcoming iPhones.In particular, Apple is asking suppliers outside of the lockdown-affected areas to help build up a couple of months’ worth of component supplies to ensure supply continuity over the next few months. The requests apply to all of Apple’s product lines — iPhones, iPads, AirPods and MacBooks — sources said.Ideally, the company hopes these suppliers can prepare enough additional components to fully offset the amount made by those in Shanghai and nearby provinces such as Jiangsu, where the risk of supply chain disruption is higher, according to sources.“For example, component supplier X has a 40 per cent share of Apple’s business in Jiangsu Province, which is a risky region of supply chain disruption, and supplier Y in another city accounts for the remaining 60 per cent share,” one of the people with direct knowledge of the matter said. “Apple would want supplier Y to build enough additional components to match supplier X’s 40 per cent share in the coming months in case production in Jiangsu is shut down again.”It would be risky for any tech supplier to fully comply with Apple’s request, considering there are signs of slowing demand for consumer electronics amid looming inflation and rising energy costs, sources said. If Apple does not end up using the extra components, the suppliers could be left holding the bag.“Those additional stocks prepared for Apple could become a heavy burden for suppliers if the production of other suppliers isn’t disrupted by lockdowns again,” another supply chain executive told Nikkei Asia. The executive added that most suppliers would agree to build some additional stocks as a buffer, but they will “definitely not” increase supplies enough to fully offset their rivals’ shares.All of these moves show how hard Apple is working to reduce its supply chain risks, people told Nikkei Asia. The company has even helped some suppliers shoulder the additional logistics costs of airfreight and land transportation to ensure materials vital for production arrive on time.Suppliers in Jiangsu Province and Shanghai have gradually resumed some production since early to mid-May, but most have said it could take at least a couple of months for manufacturing capacity to return to normal.The local government in Shanghai said it would further open up the city — home to 28mn people — from June 1, with a focus on helping businesses return to normal operations.“We will cancel all unreasonable restrictions for companies to resume working and production,” a statement by the government statement said. The government also said it would subsidise companies’ expenses for Covid prevention measures.Ivan Lam, an analyst with Counterpoint, said he expected it would take until the second half of June for life to return to normal as the government avoided rushing things in its attempt to get life and work routines back on track.“We still expect the impacts on big multinational companies like Apple to be controllable,” Lam told Nikkei Asia. “But the impacts on automotive, PC and some smaller Android phonemakers could be more severe as they have a more rooted supply chain there that they are not likely to find alternatives to very soon.”Apple and BYD did not respond to Nikkei Asia’s requests for comments.A version of this article was first published by Nikkei Asia on June 1 2022. ©2022 Nikkei Inc. All rights reservedRelated storiesApple’s iPhone development schedule hit by China lockdownsTaiwan targets Japan’s auto industry after electronics, chip dealsApple’s Shanghai headache and a battle for batteriesFoxconn raises outlook, saying supply chain situation improvingVietnam’s factory operations hit as supply chain snags multiply More

Hundreds of millions of people are at risk of “hunger and destitution” because of food shortages due to the Ukraine war, the chief of the UN warned, as talks stalled over ending Russia’s blockade of Black Sea grain shipments.António Guterres spoke as negotiators from Russia and Turkey failed to break an impasse over how to get export food from Ukraine, one of the world’s biggest wheat exporters.Talks have foundered over Moscow’s refusal to allow ships to leave Ukraine’s main port of Odesa and Kyiv’s fear of opening itself to more attacks, according to people familiar with the negotiations.A deal to allow Ukrainian food exports was “essential for hundreds of millions of people in developing countries, including in sub-Saharan Africa”, Guterres said on Wednesday. The war “is threatening to unleash an unprecedented wave of hunger and destitution, leaving social and economic chaos in its wake”, he said.People briefed on the UN-led negotiations, which involve Russia, Ukraine and Turkey, said they had failed to find ways to guarantee that grain can be shipped safely or that President Vladimir Putin’s forces will not mount an assault on Ukraine’s coastline. The sides have also not found a way to insure grain ships, they added.The deadlock is preventing some 20mn tonnes of grain from reaching export markets such as Africa. Ukraine’s expected 50mn tonne harvest this year is also in danger as storage capacity runs low.Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said after talks in Turkey on Wednesday that Moscow was ready to offer guarantees “in some way or other” that it would “not take advantage of the situation” if Ukraine cleared a path to its ports. Ukraine has mined its Black Sea coast to protect Odesa, its main port city, and nearby regions from Russian assault.But Kyiv wants more western weaponry to protect its coastline and export routes to be patrolled by a third-party navy, potentially Turkey’s.

A vessel of the Russian Navy is seen through a flock of birds in the Black Sea port of Sevastopol, Crimea February 16 2022 © Alexey Pavlishak/Reuters

“We need enough weapons to protect Odesa and this part of the Black Sea coast,” Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said in a briefing on Wednesday. “And we need a clear mission from countries we can trust to patrol this channel through which grain shipments will occur. In this respect, we can trust Turkey’s naval forces.”An EU official said: “Everybody has lost trust in Putin. We are still trying to convince our friends in Kyiv to take into account what Russia is proposing as guarantees to build trust. But . . . the clock is ticking.”Turkey, a Nato member that also has close ties to Moscow, believes it has both the military capacity and trust needed to act as an intermediary. It is offering vessels that can remove mines and warships to escort cargo ships, according to two people familiar with the matter.Kyiv is willing to let Russia inspect grain ships to check they are not being used to supply arms to Ukraine, according to a person familiar with the matter, but has balked at Russian demands to be part of the naval escort.Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, told the FT on Tuesday that Ukraine would not allow Russian ships to access its ports, saying he was trying to secure a “safe maritime corridor that can be used by all countries except the Russian Federation because we do not have any trust in Russia”.Kyiv would not enter into any “arrangement” directly with Moscow to free up shipping, he added.

Video: Volodymyr Zelenskyy: ‘No one is humiliating Ukraine. They are killing us’

Instead, Ukraine wants more surface-to-ship missiles to push Russian warships farther back from the coast and limit Russia’s ability to mount an amphibious attack.At the centre of the dispute is Odesa, the largest port still under Ukrainian control. Russia has pushed against using Odesa for grain shipments, two of the people aware of the state of talks said. Moscow likely fears that opening up the port could create an important economic and military lifeline for Kyiv, they added.Instead, Putin has called to redirect maritime traffic through the Russian-held city of Mariupol, which was almost completely destroyed after a weeks-long siege, and nearby Berdyansk.Kyiv has rejected Putin’s suggestion, accusing Russia of using the captured Azov Sea ports to ship grain allegedly plundered in occupied parts of Ukraine.Russia has also refused to lift its blockade of the Black Sea unless the west relaxes sanctions against Moscow, including granting access to EU ports for its own grain. However the EU has said its port embargo exempts agricultural goods.The UN-led talks have also failed to find a workable way to insure the grain shipments. If the humanitarian corridor is meant for grains to reach a poor country in dire need, a government or international organisation will need to arrange the insurance. But if lifting the blockade means normal commercial transactions can resume, already expensive insurance premiums will be even higher, people familiar with the matter said.Speaking in Los Angeles, USAID administrator Samantha Power said the war had rendered a third of Ukrainian crops and farmland useless, removing 27mn tonnes of wheat, corn and barley from the market. “Forty million people globally could be pushed into food insecurity due to the effects of the war,” she warned.Between them, Russia and Ukraine produce close to a third of the world’s traded wheat and barley, a fifth of its maize and over half its sunflower oil.Russia’s agriculture and fertiliser exports are not under sanctions but buyers in the Middle East and Africa have complained of difficulties accessing them due to restrictions on payments, shipping and insurance.Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, said it was “totally untrue that Russia is against exporting grain from Ukrainian ports”. He said Russia wanted sanctions to be lifted against insuring its own exports, giving them access to EU ports, and restricting buyers from paying for them. “We’re not going to supply it for free,” he told the FT.Reporting by Max Seddon, Jonathan Wheatley, John Paul Rathbone and Emiko Terazono in London, Andy Bounds in Brussels, Laura Pitel in Ankara, Roman Olearchyk in Kyiv, Gideon Long in Los Angeles and Peter Spiegel in New York More