Aurelia Butler

The US and Taiwan have launched a fresh initiative to deepen economic engagement just days after Washington unveiled a regional framework that excluded Taipei.The Biden administration said the “US-Taiwan Initiative on 21st-century Trade” would “develop an ambitious road map” for negotiations in areas from agriculture and digital trade to climate.President Joe Biden last week launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework with 12 other countries, and later added Fiji. The US did not ask Taipei to participate partly because some south-east Asian nations were concerned about antagonising China, which claims sovereignty over Taiwan.The new initiative disguises the disappointment Biden’s trade policy has been for Taiwan. President Tsai Ing-wen took a big political gamble two years ago by opening the island’s market to unpopular US pork and beef, a move she hoped would kick-start talks on a bilateral “free trade” agreement that would expand access to the American market.Ahead of IPEF’s launch last week, a bipartisan group of 252 US House and Senate lawmakers had urged Biden to include Taiwan in the regional framework to demonstrate support. “The exclusion of Taiwan from IPEF dealt a hard blow,” said Bonnie Glaser, a Taiwan expert at the German Marshall Fund. “This step is welcome, but it falls short of both IPEF and a bilateral FTA. Nevertheless, if agreements are reached in all these areas, they could comprise future chapters of a bilateral trade deal if the politics become more favourable.”A senior Taiwanese official said the new initiative was “important to further boost the substance of our dialogue on trade. But of course we remain keen to negotiate a bilateral free trade agreement at some point, and to join IPEF.”Both IPEF and a White House pledge to invest $150mn in members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations were designed to answer criticism that US Indo-Pacific strategy has been too heavy on security while lacking a trade component.But some observers questioned what contribution the new US-Taiwan initiative would make. Many of its elements were already being discussed by the governments. When they resumed their Trade and Investment Framework Agreement talks a year ago, digital trade, trade facilitation and supply chain security were among the central topics.Officials have also been discussing some of the same issues under the US-Taiwan Economic Prosperity Partnership Dialogue launched in late 2020.Joining IPEF and having a free trade deal with the US are particularly important to Taiwan because Chinese pressure has resulted in locking it out of most existing bilateral and regional trade deals. China and Taiwan have both applied to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, an 11-nation trade deal that replaced the Trans-Pacific Partnership after it was abandoned by the US under then-president Donald Trump in 2017.Taiwan is the US’s ninth-largest trading partner based on 2020 data, according to the US trade representative office. The island is one of the world’s largest suppliers of semiconductors and other electronic components. More

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The United States will launch new trade talks with Taiwan, U.S. officials said on Wednesday, just days after President Joe Biden launched an economic plan for Asia intended to push back on China that excluded the Chinese-claimed island.Washington and Taipei will “move quickly to develop a roadmap” for the planned U.S.-Taiwan Initiative on 21st-Century Trade in the coming weeks, which would be followed by in-person meetings in the U.S. capital later in June, two senior U.S. administration officials told reporters.The initiative would aim to “reach an agreement with high standard commitments that create inclusive and durable prosperity” on issues that include customs facilitation, fighting corruption, common standards on digital trade, labor rights, high environmental standards, and efforts to curb state-owned enterprises and non-market practices, one of the U.S. officials said.The bilateral initiative largely parallels the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, an economic partnership with 13 Asian countries that he launched last week during a visit to Seoul and Tokyo. But the United States did not invite democratically self-governed Taiwan to join the IPEF talks.Analysts had said other countries would be hesitant to join a grouping with the island for fear of angering Beijing, which regards Taiwan as its own territory. Over 200 members of the U.S. Congress had urged Taiwan’s inclusion in IPEF. The talks with Taiwan, led for Washington by the U.S. Trade Representative’s office, would supplement several existing dialogues with the island, including one led by the Commerce Department on export controls and other supply chain issues, the official said.NO TARIFF CUTS, ‘MARKET ACCESS’ Like IPEF, the initiative with Taiwan would not need congressional approval because it will not include market access requirements or reduced tariffs, the official added. The so-called U.S. “fast track” negotiating authority for major trade agreements expired in July 2021, and the Biden administration has not asked Congress to renew it. “We think there’s a lot of robust areas that we can cover, that would really deepen our economic engagement, our economic ties, without dealing with market access issues. But of course, obviously, we’re not ruling anything out for the future,” the official said. A second official said the new initiative added to other efforts to “highlight the U.S. commitment to the region, specifically economically.”The United States had lacked an economic pillar to its Indo-Pacific engagement since former president Donald Trump quit a multinational trans-Pacific trade agreement, in part out of concern over U.S. jobs.But trade experts have questioned whether Washington could build momentum behind any framework that didn’t offer increased access to the U.S. market. The United States doesn’t have official relations with Taiwan, a major producer of semiconductors, but has been stepping up engagement with the island as China seeks to isolate it from global institutions.The announcement came after a virtual meeting on Wednesday between Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Sarah Bianchi and Taiwan’s chief trade negotiator John Deng under the unofficial American Institute in Taiwan and the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States. More

BENGALURU/LONDON (Reuters) – The global property market frenzy that gathered pace during the pandemic as people scrambled to buy more living space is likely over as interest rates rise, and house price inflation is expected to drop off, Reuters surveys of market experts showed.Huge price rises of as much as 50% through the past few years may be coming to an end, turning to modest falls in 2023 in some countries, according to analysts covering nine key world property markets.But they also say any declines won’t make housing more affordable, especially for first-time buyers, just as the basic cost of living soars and mortgage rates go up – for the first time in many young people’s lifetimes.”There is definitely a slowdown. So the pace of growth is slowing pretty much everywhere … (and) it is likely that a number of markets will see price falls,” said Liam Bailey, global head of research at Knight Frank. “The question really is whether there is a risk of a kind of crash scenario in certain markets.”For now, most real estate specialists aren’t forecasting even a 10% correction in house prices, instead sticking to the view that housing inflation will slow substantially, in most cases to less than the rate consumer prices are currently rising.With wages unlikely to match any of these inflation trends any time soon, agreement is exceptionally strong among analysts about the hit to basic affordability in the next few years from record high house prices and higher interest rates.A more than two-thirds majority of analysts, or 83 of 119, who answered an additional question said affordability for first-time buyers would either worsen or worsen significantly over the next two years. The remaining 36 said it would improve.Even in property markets like India and Dubai – which avoided the panic buying and high double-digit annual price appreciation seen during the worst of the pandemic in markets like the United States, Canada and Australia – analysts still agree affordability will worsen. Graphic: Reuters Polls- Global housing market – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/polling/klpykolwnpg/Reuters%20Polls-%20Global%20housing%20market.png INFLATION CHALLENGES Part of that has to do with the cost of building new homes, which almost universally are not being constructed fast enough to keep up with demand. Soaring costs from supply chain disruptions facing all businesses around the world are set to be passed on to first-time buyers, in much the same way as consumers are paying more for everything they buy.”The same inflation challenges … specifically in the construction market, and supply chain woes, which continue to plague … developers and house builders … are not being mitigated to any extent,” said Adam Challis, executive director of research and strategy for EMEA at JLL.”In fact over the short term, it’s very much likely to get worse as people have returned to the cities … and becoming much more excited about their urban living choices.”Indeed, while analysts are generally reluctant to predict the thinking behind consumer behaviour, it was the urge for people to move while struck by COVID-19 lockdowns that got them bidding for property. Very few expected that to happen.Looking forward there seems little reason to predict existing homeowners, flush with home equity from soaring prices, will be much more restrained acting on a desire to return to city life.That leaves first-time buyers, who have been in a difficult situation coming up with a deposit for a property for the better part of a generation, in a worse situation every year that goes by. That may hold even if prices fall.”Your purchase price may be reduced … but actually the cost of servicing a loan may not actually decline along with that price,” added Knight Frank’s Bailey.Swathes of people in most countries, particularly the young, have resigned themselves to renting over owning. But the shortage of homes has also driven up rents everywhere.Asked what would happen to affordability in the home rental market over the next two years, more than 80% of analysts, or 82 of 99, said it would worsen. The rest said it would improve.(For other stories from the Reuters quarterly housing market polls:) More

Averages prices for souvlaki have risen far faster than headline measures of inflation – hovering at a 28-year high around 10% in Greece – trotted out by national statistics agencies.The classic meal of grilled meat wrapped in flatbread with salad and garlic yogurt now costs 3.30 euros ($3.55) on average in an around Athens, up an eye-watering 30% from last summer.With the cost of its main ingredients – meat, vegetables and sunflower oil – all up sharply along with energy prices as war and pandemic disrupt supply chains, the surge lays bare some of the main pressures facing the world economy at grassroots level.”The war in Ukraine has affected us a lot,” said 79 year-old Thanasis Golas, owner of one of the oldest kebab shop in Monastiraki district in the shadow of the Acropolis as he sliced off pieces of pork for his mainly foreign clientele.”Greek customers have been reduced substantially.”Long seen as an inexpensive treat accessible to almost anyone, souvlaki has increasingly become the kind of item people on tight budgets think twice before buying.”In the past I would buy three or two souvlaki, today I only bought one, because it is very expensive, and wages are low right now,” says Morina Ntotsi, a 58-year-old cleaner who earns 720 euros a month.The Grill and Restaurant Union in Athens says that the price of pork has risen 30% the last 12 months, the sunflower oil generally imported from Ukraine by 125% and electricity bills more than 100%.”I hope the war ends soon,” said Spyros Bairachtaris, whose family has owned a restaurant near the Acropolis for more than 140 years and who, following a doubling of his electricity bill, is struggling to hold his souvlaki at under 3 euros per serving.For at least one tourist, however, the snack remains a snip at that price.”I would pay 10 euros for that souvlaki, it’s delicious,” said Dave Disis, from the U.S. state of Georgia.($1 = 0.9326 euros) More