Aurelia Butler

“There’s a chance of recession,” he said in a telephone interview. While he added that he’s not overly concerned about that risk, Solomon cited at least a 30% chance of such an event in the next 12 to 24 months as calculated by his firm’s economists, led by Jan Hatzius. He’s watching closely for whether credit spreads begin to widen out more materially. Solomon’s comments come months after his top deputy, John Waldron, told a large investment client that the Federal Reserve hadn’t been acting swiftly enough to control inflation. This week, former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein expressed similar unease about soaring prices.“We have to get rid of inflation,” Solomon said Tuesday on the phone call. “Inflation is extremely punitive, especially on those that are living week to week, paycheck to paycheck. It’s a big, big tax on that part of society. I think it’s very, very important that we get it under control.” Clients of the Wall Street giant are recognizing that economic conditions are tightening, in a process that’s still quite orderly, he said. While declining stock prices are predictable, if the tumult spilled over into credit spreads it would be “concerning.” “We are seeing a tightening of monetary conditions,” he said. “What’s happening with asset prices given we’re entering an environment with much more restrictive monetary policy is not surprising.”©2022 Bloomberg L.P. More

The expansion of the H-2B visas, used to employ landscapers, housekeepers, hotel employees and construction and carnival workers, among others, for the busy summer vacation season comes amid record job growth and a U.S. labor crunch despite worries over some economic headwinds. Businesses have been bracing for summer travelers following two years of the pandemic, with rising demand leading to worries about potentially long lines and other strains.The notice by the Homeland Security and Labor departments is for U.S. employers that face “irreparable harm” if they cannot get additional workers and aims to “provide temporary portability flexibility.”Officials in January had granted an additional 20,000 visas – also for H-2B workers who tend to be temporary and in non-agricultural jobs – amid reduced labor force participation.U.S. policy makers have been focused on trying to get more Americans to enter the workforce as they grapple with high inflation, rising gas prices and other issues two years after the COVID-19 outbreak began. More

MADRID (Reuters) -The Spanish economy could grow around 4% in 2022, half a percentage point less than expected in April, as rising inflation hurts consumer confidence and international trade slows, the Bank of Spain said on Wednesday.The lower envisaged growth rate would bring it in line with the downwards revision this week from the European Commission. It had previously forecast a 5.6% GDP rise for Spain.In April, the Spanish central bank had already lowered its economic growth outlook for this year and next due to the impact of inflation stoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and forecast inflation would soar to 7.5% in 2022.Prices rose 8.3% year-on-year in April. [“New information following the publication of these projections, including lower-than-expected GDP growth in the first quarter, would point to a further downward revision in the expected GDP growth rate for this year as a whole,” Governor Pablo Hernandez de Cos said on Wednesday.In its annual report the Bank of Spain added that “in the absence of any additional considerations, this would lead to a mechanical downgrading of about half a percentage point in the average GDP growth rate in 2022”.Spain’s growth slowed sharply to a weaker-than-expected 0.3% in the first quarter from the previous quarter, leading the government to slash its growth outlook for this year to 4.3% from 7%. Still, De Cos said the possible new revision of the projections, subject to “extraordinarily high uncertainty”, would remain consistent with the path of gradual economic recovery.Spain would not reach pre-pandemic GDP levels until the end of 2023, with inflation rates that would remain high in the coming months, before moderating thereafter, De Cos said.”In coming months the Iberian mechanism to limit gas prices and lower electricity prices – recently approved in Spain and Portugal, in agreement with the European Commission – will foreseeably put downward pressure on energy prices in Spain,” he said. More

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) – Pakistan opened long-delayed talks with the International Monetary Fund on Wednesday, seeking the release of more funds from a $6 billion rescue package agreed in 2019 to help shore up the South Asian nation’s battered economy.Pakistan has already asked the IMF to increase the size and duration of its $6 billion programme, with foreign reserves falling as low as $10.3 billion so that they cover less than two months of imports, a widening current account deficit, surging inflation and a plunging currency.”Talks with the IMF mission started today,” the Finance Ministry said in a statement, adding that Finance Minister Miftah Ismail and the acting central bank governor would join the talks virtually. A finance team has already headed to Doha for consultations with the IMF that are due to last until May 25 before the lender takes a decision, the ministry said.The rupee weakened to about 198.39 to the dollar on Wednesday, the central bank said, a historic low that means it has lost almost a quarter of its value in the past year.The finance minister requested a bigger IMF package on a visit to Washington last month. Following that request, the IMF said Islamabad had agreed to roll back unfunded subsidies to the oil and power sectors.From March to June, Pakistan is expected to spend about $2 billion on subsidies which have yet to be withdrawn.The government that took over in April after the collapse of Prime Minister Imran Khan’s administration fears a public backlash if it withdraws the subsidies on which many Pakistanis rely.About half of the existing package of $6 billion has been disbursed so far, but more recent payments were delayed several times due to IMF concerns about fiscal policy measures.If the current review is successful, Pakistan will receive more than $900 million, which will help unlock other external financing. More