Aurelia Butler

The writer is chair of Rockefeller InternationalFrench president Emmanuel Macron’s re-election victory may be a triumph for what remains of Europe’s pragmatic political centre, but voters in France are in no mood for more economic reform. Though increasingly angry about the state of the nation, they won’t support any leader who tries to fix what ails it most: the bloated state. Outside a few tiny outliers and possibly communist North Korea, France’s government spends more heavily than any other in the world.In 2017, the French had a real choice on this key issue. Macron vowed to downsize the state and his rival Marine Le Pen promised to expand it further. Voters chose Macron by a large margin, giving him what appeared to be a clear mandate for change. Ever the reluctant capitalists, the French public hit the streets in protest when Macron tried to deliver.Macron had promised to reduce state spending — then a record at more than 56 per cent of gross domestic product — by about 5 percentage points. Instead, under pressure from protests and the pandemic, state spending rose to a staggering 60 per cent of GDP.France’s government spending is 15 points above the average for developed economies. Moreover, that gap is explained less by heavy spending on education, health or housing than on welfare programmes, which at 18 per cent of GDP is nearly double the average for developed economies. France is stuck in a welfare trap, spending generously on income transfers but pushed by voters to spend even more, given discontent with the rising cost of living and with inequality. Despite its strengths, from large-scale manufacturing to luxury goods, France remains at best an average economic competitor. Its growth rate has long hovered at or below the developed world average. And though GDP growth has picked up under Macron, it averaged just 1 per cent a year in his first term, which ranks 13th among the top 20 developed economies over that period.The French state, taxing heavily to fund its spending habits and muscular regulatory arms, is a major reason for this mediocrity. France’s government deficit is 7 per cent of GDP and its public debt is 112 per cent, both among the heaviest burdens of any developed country.The French ship of state stays afloat owing in part to wealth accumulated over generations — but even that has a downside. Demands for social levelling are fuelled by one of the most top-heavy billionaire elites in the developed world. Total billionaire wealth doubled under Macron to 17 per cent of GDP, and nearly 80 per cent of French billionaires’ wealth is inherited — among the highest in the world. To his credit, Macron’s reforms did create pockets of dynamism. He loosened up the labour market, making French labour costs competitive with Germany’s for the first time in years. He scrapped a contentious wealth tax, slowing an exodus of high-end talent.Above all, those reforms helped drive investment up to 25 per cent of GDP, fourth highest among large developed countries. Concentrated in the private sector, investment is fuelling a new start-up culture and a comeback in cities beyond Paris. But Macron was re-elected at the weekend with a narrower margin of victory and a weaker mandate for reform, so this was probably as good as progress gets for France.As the first round of voting showed, the parties of the far left and right have expanded, shrinking the traditional parties of the centre to the brink of extinction, and both extremes are united in favour of bigger government. Squeezed from both sides, Macron has retreated from “radical” centrist reform — recently watering down plans to raise the retirement age, for example. Meanwhile, Le Pen’s proposals unequivocally favour a bigger government.Though it is hard to say how much government is too much, robust economic growth requires balance. Countries need to be aware when the state is too fat or too thin — both can be harmful. France’s government is so oversized relative to the competition, especially when it comes to welfare payments, it is a wonder the country isn’t facing a financial crisis. The state-led model stays solvent because tax compliance is relatively high in France, and because its borrowing is enabled by low eurozone interest rates. The downside: by avoiding crises, France faces little pressure to accept major reform. So it is almost certain to get more of what voters signal they want, an even fatter state. For all its richness in history, culture and wealth, a nation of reluctant capitalists looks destined to muddle through. More

(Reuters) – Craig Fuller monitors millions of transactions between U.S. truckers and their customers as chief executive of transportation data company FreightWaves – and he does not like what he is seeing. There has been an unexpectedly sharp downturn in demand to truck everything from food to furniture since the beginning of March and rates in the overheated segment that deals in on-demand trucking jobs – known as the spot market – are skidding. “It basically just dropped off a cliff,” said Fuller, who is concerned that the United States is at the start of a trucking recession that could decimate truckers’ ability to dictate prices and push some small trucking firms into bankruptcy. Meanwhile, investors and financial analysts worry what will happen if the trucking slump deepens and spreads. History has proven trucking to be a possible indicator for the U.S. economy. That is because when people buy less, companies ship less – and business activity slows. Economic recessions followed six of the 12 trucking recessions since 1972, according to an analysis by trucking data company Convoy.GRAPHIC-U.S. trucking demand skids in 2022 – https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-SHIPPING/TRUCKING/jnpweremrpw/chart.png Experts predicted trucking would soften a bit as pandemic-weary consumers shifted some spending from goods to services in response to the United States lifting COVID prevention measures. But they did not foresee Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which sent fuel prices to record highs, jolted already volatile stock markets, and forced shoppers to hit pause.And now, trucking’s most demand-sensitive sector – the spot market – is in correction territory.”It is the proverbial ‘canary in the mineshaft’,” said Joseph Rajkovacz, director of governmental affairs for the Western States Trucking Association. The group represents small trucking companies that dominate the spot market, which handled as much as 30% of freight during the height of the pandemic.The spot rate deterioration hit when diesel prices were roughly doubling, battering the take-home pay of truckers like Marco Padilla, 63. A few years ago, California-based Padilla spent 25-30 cents per mile to run his truck. “So for every dollar (of pay), I was pocketing 70 cents. Now it costs $1 a mile,” said Padilla.Average first-quarter spot rates, excluding fuel, dove 55 cents from $2.78 per mile in mid-January to $2.23 on April 14. Spot rates normally drop about 22 cents per mile during that period, said Dean Croke, freight market analyst at DAT Freight & Analytics. While spot rates remained 37 cents per mile above what they were during the last bull market for trucking in April 2018, they fell 6 cents year-over-year earlier this month – marking the first such reversal of the current cycle. “That’s where the fear is. Is that the floor? Does this keep going?” Croke said of the demand-led decline. BOOM TO BUST?The share of freight handled by the U.S. spot trucking market roughly doubled after consumer spending on durable goods surged some 20% during the pandemic. In their rush to keep up, retailers and other shippers focused on speed over efficiency – using more trucks and exacerbating demand for them.At one point, the truckload spot market was handling more than 1 million loads per day, versus its historical average of about 400,000, said Brent Hutto, chief relationship officer at TruckStop.com, which – like DAT – matches truckers with spot market loads.But demand tumbled in March, when retail sales excluding purchases of gasoline fell 0.3%. Online sales, which surged during the pandemic, declined for the second month in a row. Skyrocketing diesel prices convinced shippers to wait to fill truck trailers, rather than rushing them out partially loaded – further moderating demand, analysts said.Big trucking firms like JB Hunt (NASDAQ:JBHT) Transport Services and Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings are somewhat insulated by their one-year, fixed-price contracts with companies ranging from Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and Home Depot (NYSE:HD) to Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG). Walmart and many other companies have in-house trucking while also employing outside firms. Stifel transportation analyst Bert Subin said in a research note that he expects soft truckload demand in the second and third quarters, followed by a holiday season-fueled fourth-quarter rebound. Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) earlier this month predicted interest rate hikes will tip the United States into recession next year. Meanwhile, some shippers are asking for shorter trucking contracts, “given their belief that rates may tick lower,” Cowen transportation analysts said in a recent note.Indeed, some executives like Fraser Townley, CEO of video gaming controller seller T2M, are celebrating the declining trucking prices as a relief to their profit margins.”They’re about one-third down. There’s still a long way to go,” Townley said. More

Investing.com — Risk assets around the world tumbled as Covid-19 reached the Chinese capital of Beijing, hitting all local markets hard and adding to fears of stagflation further afield. Palm oil rose 7% as the world’s largest producer, Indonesia, imposed an export ban to stop domestic prices rising. U.S. stocks are set to extend Friday’s losses, with Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) not unduly moved by news that its board had met with Elon Musk to discuss his bid at the weekend. Emmanuel Macron handily beat far-right challenger Marine Le Pen to win a second term as President of France, while German business confidence avoids a second straight monthly drop. Here’s what you need to know in financial markets on Monday, 25th April.1. Panic buying in Beijing triggers panic selling everywhere elseChinese assets tumbled, dragging down European stocks and global prices for oil and industrial metals, as the wave of Omicron-variant Covid-19 reached the capital city, Beijing.Newswires reported panic buying of foodstuffs and other essentials as the city’s 21 million inhabitants braced for a lockdown similar to that which has roiled Shanghai and other major centers in recent weeks.The Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 index fell over 6% and the Hang Seng 3.7%, while Iron ore futures fell over 10% as traders fretted about the possible closure of the region’s steel mills. The offshore Chinese yuan lost nearly 1% to its lowest in just under two years, having also come under pressure from a separate direction: the People’s Bank of China has reportedly authorized banks to loosen lending conditions to a raft of troubled developers, whose mountain of unsold properties has grown as Covid lockdowns have gummed up the housing market still further.2. Twitter board softens on Musk stanceThe board of Twitter has started discussions with Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk about a possible sale, according to various reports. If confirmed, that would represent an abrupt reversal by the social media company after it adopted a poison-pill defense to block Musk’s unwelcome $43 billion bid.Musk had last week announced that he had secured funding for his bid, making it harder for Twitter’s board to dismiss it out of hand. The Wall Street Journal and others reported that the two sides had met on Sunday and were making progress, although there were few details available.Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) stock rose 1.2% in premarket trading but was still nearly 9% below Musk’s offer price of $54.20, which he has said is his “best and final” proposal. The discount reflects ongoing skepticism that the bid will succeed.3. Stocks set to open lower; Philips plunges after earnings miss; Coke earnings eyedU.S. stocks are set to open sharply lower later, as the weekend news of China confirms the market in the pessimistic mindset it had shown on Friday.By 6:10 AM ET (1010 GMT), Dow Jones futures were down 265 points, or 0.8%, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were down in parallel. The three benchmark cash indices had all lost between 2.5% and 2.8% on Friday, the worst and broadest one-day selloff this year, largely on fears of aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve to rein in galloping inflation.Stocks likely to be in focus later include Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) and Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI), whose quarterly results are due. Overnight, Dutch-based medical technology group Philips saw its stock plunge 11% to a six-year low after it expanded a ventilator recall, while Swiss-based pharma giant Roche (SIX:RO) fell after its core first-quarter profit fell by one-third. Roche also fell after warning of a slowdown in Covid test kit sales. Nissan (OTC:NSANY) ADRs will also be in focus after reports that Renault (EPA:RENA) may unload part of its stake in order to finance its own investments.4. Macron wins re-election, thanks to retirees; Ifo index stabilizesEmmanuel Macron became the first French president to win re-election in two decades, comfortably seeing off far-right challenger Marine Le Pen by 59%-41% in a head-to-head run-off on Sunday.The margin was wider than had seemed likely two weeks ago after the first round of voting and gave a modest degree of support to the euro and Eurozone government bonds – albeit that was lost in the more negative news coming out of the U.S. and China.Le Pen’s performance still represents a sharp improvement on the same run-off five years ago, which she lost by a margin of 66%-34%. Notably, every age bracket under the age of 60 broke for her.Elsewhere in Europe, German business confidence stabilized at a low level in April, according to the Ifo Business Climate index. The survey was stronger than expected, but Ifo still warned of fresh supply chain pressures down the line due to China’s Covid issues and the war in Ukraine.5. Oil tumbles on China demand fears; Dallas Fed survey due; Palm oil surgesCrude oil prices fell sharply as the prospect of lockdowns in Beijing threatened to make an even bigger hole in Chinese demand. Bloomberg had reported on Friday that China’s demand was already running at an average 1.2 million barrels a day less than March due to the restrictions in Shanghai – which remain largely in place more than three weeks since their introduction.By 6:20 AM ET, U.S. crude futures were down 4.1% at $97.88 a barrel, while Brent futures were down 3.9% at $102.02 a barrel.Prices got a modicum of support from reports of a fire on Russia’s largest Europe-facing oil export pipeline, after an explosion at some of its fuel storage tanks near the Ukrainian border.The Dallas Federal Reserve’s monthly business survey may shed light later on the outlook for U.S. output after a full month of prices staying above $100. Other commodities also continue to show signs of tension, with Palm Oil Futures in Kuala Lumpur rising 7% in response to the decision on Friday by Indonesia (by far the world’s largest exporter) to ban exports in an effort to keep domestic prices low. Soybean oil, a substitute for some uses of palm oil, rose as much as 1.9% in Chicago to near all-time highs. More

A dozen of cash-strapped property firms, including China Evergrande Group and Kaisa Group, were invited to the meeting on Tuesday, two of the sources said.The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) encouraged commercial banks at the meeting to offer new loans and extend existing loans to developers, the sources said.Five national asset management companies were also present at the meeting, the sources added.China Securities Journal first reported the meeting, saying the developers which attended included Zhongliang Holdings and Yango Group.Kaisa declined to comment. PBOC, Evergrande, Zhongliang and Yango did not respond to requests for comment.Beijing has signalled there would be more government support for the embattled sector after bond payment defaults by Evergrande and other property developers rattled global markets.But China’s pledges to shore up the industry have done little to boost prospects, developers have said, as they struggle to access funding and many local government authorities remain reluctant to ease development rules.Two developers which attended Tuesday’s meetings said on Monday they were not very optimistic about prospects for securing more financing from banks. More

The investment bank said that while the euro area economy had proved resilient, it faced weakness ahead with energy flows from Russia likely to be significantly reduced and headwinds from China where strict measures to contain COVID-19 are weighing on growth there.In a note published Monday, Morgan Stanley said it had now lowered its 2022 euro area GDP forecast to 2.7% from 3% previously and shaved 1 percentage point off its 2023 growth forecasts to 1.3%.”Despite the resilience in economic activity shown so far against geopolitical headwinds, we think more material impacts will show in the second half of the year, through various channels of transmission,” the note said. More

“There’s no need to fret” about current yen levels, Abe was quoted as saying at a meeting of ruling party lawmakers.Abe still yields strong influence in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) as a proponent of big fiscal spending and aggressive monetary easing by the Bank of Japan.Among the key goals of his “Abenomics” stimulus policies, deployed a decade ago, have been to reverse a yen spike that had hurt Japan’s export-reliant economy. More

Good morning and welcome to Europe Express.There was a quick and near-audible sigh of relief last night among European leaders as French exit polls came in, confirming Emmanuel Macron’s second term as president. The feeling of Europe dodging a seismic populist upheaval — even as Marine Le Pen scored more votes than last time around — was reinforced at smaller scale in Slovenia, where voters ousted populist, anti-EU prime minister Janez Jansa (who was seeking to emulate Hungary’s Viktor Orban).But all is not well in Europe. The war in Ukraine is now in its third month and the rocket attacks on civilians have spread to the beautiful port city of Odesa. As the FT reported yesterday, Russian president Vladimir Putin has lost interest in diplomatic efforts to end his war with Ukraine and instead appears set on seizing as much Ukrainian territory as possible. With the French election now in the bag, diplomats in Brussels expect some movement on the sixth sanctions package, which includes measures targeting Russian oil. (The same goes for other files that have been put on hold pending Macron’s re-election, notably free trade deals)One key element for those upcoming sanctions to work will be enticing Russia-friendly countries, including India, if not to align, then at least not to scupper the restrictive regime. With European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in New Delhi today, we’ll look at what goodies she plans to put on the table — trade, technology and weapons.Macron 2.0To the thumping tune of Daft Punk’s “One More Time”, supporters of Emmanuel Macron cheered and danced under the Eiffel Tower in Paris when early results showing his clear victory hit, writes Sarah White in Paris. Behind the party mood, even Macron enthusiasts had immediate concerns about what the next five years would bring and the tougher ride he likely has in store at home, after a strong showing for the far-right and with the prospect of a battle for parliamentary seats in the June elections. Macron has become the first French president in 20 years to win a second term, defeating his far-right challenger Marine Le Pen by around 58 per cent to her 42 per cent, according to early projections.That marked a more narrow margin than five years earlier in a first run-off between Macron and Le Pen, however, after a closely-run end of campaigning that brought to light strong pushback against the incumbent among leftwing voters too. Disappointed voters from Le Pen’s camp but also far-left supporters are already pushing to mount a strong challenge to Macron in the upcoming parliamentary elections, raising questions over how easily he will be able to pass reforms, including a pensions overhaul that proved unpopular on the campaign trail. For the European Union, the repeat victory of the fervently pro-EU Macron will prove a more immediate boost. Even as Le Pen dropped her call from five years ago for France to leave the bloc, the prospect of her victory had fuelled concerns of a different stance on Russia thwarting the unity of the 27 members and France leaving Nato’s military command structure (again). “Macron’s clear victory is likely to reassure the markets that the European dynamic will continue,” Frédéric Leroux, an investment committee member of asset managers Carmignac said in a note, pointing to likely short-term benefits for the euro. Congratulations were quick to arrive, and not just from the regular allies such as commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, who within minutes from the exit polls being announced tweeted her “delight” at the prospect of continuing an “excellent collaboration” and Italy’s Mario Draghi welcoming the “splendid news for all of Europe”. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Poland’s premier, Mateusz Morawiecki, who in the past have both sparred with Macron, also congratulated him. Macron received his first call of the night from Olaf Scholz, the Elysée Palace said, with the German chancellor also voicing his support.“Your constituents also sent a strong commitment to Europe today,” Scholz said on Twitter. The French president, who had framed the election as a pro or anti-EU referendum, only made cursory mention of the next steps for Europe to supporters in his victory speech last night. He referred briefly to his “ambitious” project for the bloc and focused instead on trying to send a conciliatory message to voters of all bands at home. His music choice was on message, however: emulating his election night of five years ago, Macron, surrounded by a group of youngsters, walked up to greet supporters to a drawn-out rendition of “Ode to Joy”, the European anthem. Chart du jour: Mapping voters

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Read more here about how support for the French far-right has grown over the years and under Macron’s first term. Five years ago Macron beat Le Pen by 66 per cent to 34. In 2002, the centre-right incumbent Jacques Chirac defeated Le Pen’s father Jean-Marie Le Pen by 82 per cent to 18 after the Front National leader unexpectedly reached the second round.Wooing India If the EU wants to convince India to distance itself more from Russia it will have to offer tangible incentives — among them in the military arena, writes Sam Fleming in Brussels. Accordingly, the potential for greater provision of defence equipment is set to feature in conversations between Ursula von der Leyen, the commission president, and India’s prime minister Narendra Modi when they meet today. Von der Leyen is on her first visit to New Delhi since becoming commission president in 2019, and the Ukraine war is set to hang heavily over proceedings. While EU powers have been dismayed by Modi’s refusal to condemn Vladimir Putin’s invasion, they have not been particularly surprised. India has a longstanding relationship with Russia that dates back to the cold war, and anywhere from 60-85 per cent of its military equipment is estimated to be of either Russian or Soviet origin. To woo India away from Putin, the EU will have to be able to offer alternatives in key areas — most prominently arms and fertilisers. Options include streamlining defence procurement procedures, as well as facilitating industrial joint ventures between EU companies and India. None of this can be achieved overnight. But the EU is calculating that India — which has been diversifying its military procurement for some years — will be increasingly open to western equipment given expectations that the US and EU export controls will degrade Russia’s military technology base. The UK is also looking for ways of enhancing its defence relationship with India: its plans include accelerating the licensing process by which India procures weapons from Britain and offers of more joint military exercises and officer exchanges. For its part, the US, India’s Quad partner, designated India a major defence partner in 2016. The union hopes that the spectre of the “no limits” partnership between Putin and China’s Xi Jinping will serve as an additional incentive for New Delhi to pivot more to the west. The EU-India meetings will accordingly see the unveiling of a new trade and technology council, and confirmation of a round of negotiations in June aimed at a trade deal between the EU and US.What to watch today European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visits IndiaThe European parliament’s trade committee votes on new rules tightening the scrutiny on foreign companies that receive subsidies. . . and later this weekEuropean Court of Justice rules on Airbnb case on WednesdayConference on the Future of Europe holds its final session on Friday and SaturdayNotable, Quotable

Swedish reluctance: Finland may be gunning for Nato membership ever since the war in Ukraine started, but its EU, non-Nato fellow Sweden is a much more reluctant follower. Led by a centre-left government deeply divided on Nato, Stockholm initially hoped it could avoid the question of membership and has in recent weeks changed tack because of Helsinki saying it was likely to join no matter what its neighbour did. Suisse inquiry: Norway’s $1.3tn oil fund, the world’s largest, has backed calls for a special audit at Credit Suisse and warned it would not absolve executives and board members from blame over multiple scandals as pressure grows on the Swiss lender to revamp its senior management. Turkish flight ban: Turkey has banned Russia’s armed forces from using its airspace to reach Syria in a bid to increase pressure on Vladimir Putin as Ankara tries to revive peace talks with Ukraine. More

Inflation in America is at a 40-year high, while household incomes, adjusted for rising prices, are falling at the fastest pace since the government began collecting data in 1959. That’s largely because the cost of food, fuel and housing has been climbing so dramatically. The price of commodities shows no sign of going down much anytime soon, thanks to the war in Ukraine, while a tightly constrained housing market in the US may keep prices higher than normal for the next few years, even as interest rates rise.But what about non-essential items? There one can see the beginning of a correction that may have surprising impacts for both business and markets. A recent report by Currency Research Associates, a US-based financial strategy firm, identified strong anecdotal evidence that a “global ‘buying strike’ is emerging”, as consumers around the world begin to cut back their spending on anything they don’t absolutely need.The evidence for this is strongest in developing countries, where the spike in the price of basics (which are even more expensive when priced in depreciating currencies) has led to rolling blackouts, food insecurity and what amounts to a “removal” of hundreds of millions of people from the global consumer economy. Now rich countries may be in for some of the same. Residents of New York and New Jersey, for example, owe more than $2.4bn to utility companies (nationally, the number is $22bn) and some cities are warning about electricity shut-offs if bills aren’t paid.Businesses are beginning to adjust their own expectations for spending. Used cars have been outselling new ones in the US for some time. In late March, Apple announced plans to scale back output of its iPhone SE by 20 per cent, because the war in Ukraine and rising inflation were cutting into consumer spending around the world. It also slashed orders for AirPods earphones. Last week, Netflix announced that it lost more streaming customers than it signed up in the first quarter, the company’s first reverse in a decade. The streaming service’s 35 per cent share price dive following the announcement led the entire S&P down.The worry now is that anything people can cut back on — from eating out to summer holidays to new clothes, white goods, cars or gadgets — may take a hit if food, fuel and (in places like the US) housing costs remain high. While that’s already happened for the 60 per cent of Americans who live pay cheque to pay cheque, there are indications that richer people are becoming wary about excess spending, too. One recent poll found that over half of those making $100,000 or more were dining out less, and roughly a third were cutting back on driving, travel and monthly subscriptions.What might the domino effects be if lower consumer spending, rising costs for raw inputs and falling share prices collide with higher interest rates and corporations holding more debt than ever? Ulf Lindahl, the chief executive of Currency Research Associates, says investors would be wise to look at what happened in another period of declining income and production growth, between September 1937 and June 1938.Back then, after hitting a couple of peaks, equity prices plunged by 40 per cent in three months. It’s a period that economist Kenneth D Roose examined in detail in his 1954 book, The Economics of Recession and Revival. While the exact causes of the crash are difficult to tease out, wholesale prices had surged at a time when people were still very conscious of the Depression and increasingly nervous about geopolitics.All that collided with a reduction in the federal aid that had been doled out as part of the New Deal, just as central bankers had begun raising rates. The cost of capital for business rose, even as spending declined, and share prices collapsed.There are obviously disturbing similarities with today’s global economic and geopolitical picture. We also have wary consumers, higher wages in many places, soaring inflation in commodities globally, a war in Ukraine, and central bankers trying to stay ahead of it all. Real 10-year US Treasury yields are about to turn positive for the first time since the pandemic, giving consumers yet another reason to save more, and spend less. It will also make corporate debt more expensive, and companies more vulnerable. Does all this mean that we are heading for a 40 per cent market correction? I’m betting not, if only because a China still pursuing a zero-Covid policy and a Europe in crisis means that US equities will benefit, at least for the time being, from being the cleanest dirty shirt in the closet. In our deglobalising era, it is, like it or not, safer to invest in a region that has its own food, fuel and consumer demand.That said, it does feel as if we are approaching a major turning point in the markets. Supply chains are shifting, conflict is growing and currency systems are changing. All of this is happening at a time when monetary policy is about to cross a Rubicon with rate hikes and quantitative tightening. History rhymes. Let’s hope it doesn’t repeat. [email protected] More