Aurelia Butler

“What we need to do right now is get expeditiously to neutral and then go from there,” Bullard said at a virtual event held by the Council on Foreign Relations. But with economic growth expected to remain above its potential, he added, the economy won’t fall into recession and the unemployment rate, now at 3.6%, will likely drop below 3% this year.The Fed raised its target policy rate a quarter-of-a-percentage point last month, and Fed forecasts released at the time showed policymakers expected rates to rise to 1.9% by year-end. Bullard’s preferred rate path would require half-point interest rates hikes at all six of the Fed’s remaining meetings this year. The likely rate path is probably somewhere in between, based on interest-rate futures contracts, which are currently pricing in a year-end policy rate range at 2.5%-2.75%. Bullard said he also wants to begin reducing the Fed’s balance sheet at an upcoming meeting, though he said he did not see a need to start selling bonds unless inflation does not recede as the Fed expects. More

At least 60 of 200 workers from Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)’s DNK5 depot in Bayonne, New Jersey, have submitted cards seeking to organize as part of Local 713 International Brotherhood of the Trade Union, the NLRB said.The news follows growing interest in organizing at Amazon, which for years had resisted unions in its U.S. operations.Just last month, thousands of employees at the JFK8 warehouse in Staten Island voted to organize under a different group known as the Amazon Labor Union, and workers at a second Staten Island warehouse are weighing later this month whether to unionize.An election date and terms have yet to be agreed upon for the delivery station DNK5. Amazon could dispute the validity of this latest petition.The company did not immediately respond to a request for comment. More

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Wall Street ended the day lower in a choppy trading day on Monday, while U.S. Treasury yields jumped as investors juggled strong earnings with what Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could mean for global growth.A significant cut to global growth expectations from the World Bank, paired with March weakness in China’s latest economic numbers injected some pessimism into U.S. markets, which opened Monday following a holiday-shortened previous week.But a strong quarterly earnings report from Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) offset some of that concern, as investors prepared for more major corporate earnings reports this week.The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 0.11%, while the S&P 500 dipped 0.02% and the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.14%. Markets were closed in Australia, Hong Kong and many parts of Europe for the Easter holiday.The World Bank announced it was cutting its global growth forecast for 2022 by nearly a full percentage point due to the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The organization now expects economic growth of 3.2% this year, down from a prior 4.1% forecast.China also reported that its economy slowed in March as consumption, real estate and exports were hit hard, worsening an outlook already weakened by COVID-19 curbs and the Ukraine war.”Stocks continued to search for sustained upside momentum amid high inflation readings, interest rates on the rise, and dashed hopes for a cease fire in Ukraine,” said Chris Larkin, managing director at E*TRADE. OIL, BOND YIELDS SURGEOil prices closed over 1% higher, boosted by concerns over tight global supply amid the Ukraine crisis.Those concerns were amplified after Libya’s National Oil Corp said a “painful wave” of closures were impacting its facilities, offsetting any concerns about reduced demand from a locked down China.”With global supplies now so tight, even the most minor disruption is likely to have an outsized impact on prices,” said Jeffrey Halley, analyst at brokerage OANDA.Brent crude settled 1.3% higher at $113.16 a barrel after earlier hitting $114.84, its highest since March 28. U.S. crude ended up 1.2% at $108.21 per barrel.The looming prospect of aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve helped push U.S. Treasury yields to three-year highs while boosting other safe havens. The Fed is now expected to hike rates by 50 basis points at its May and June meetings, at least, as it looks to contain rapid inflation. Fed funds futures traders are expecting the Fed’s benchmark rate to rise to 1.28% in June and to 2.67% next February, from 0.33% now.”Despite nascent signs that inflation could be easing and hawkish Fed bets being trimmed, a 50bps rate hike for May looks all but locked in,” wrote Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) analysts in a note.The benchmark 10-year note was last 2.8373%, after previously hitting 2.884% earlier on Monday, the highest since December 2018.Concerns over economic fallout helped push gold prices to a one-month high Monday, with safe-haven spot gold last up 0.14% to $1,977.35 an ounce.The dollar also got a boost as a safe haven, with the dollar index, which tracks the greenback versus a basket of six currencies, was up 0.47%. More

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. Treasury this week will call on international policymakers to take steps to mitigate the impact from Russia’s war in Ukraine on developing economies, which are paying high costs through increased food and energy prices, Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said on Monday.”We must not allow Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to further burden countries still struggling to deal with a global pandemic,” Adeyemo said in remarks to a virtual event hosted by the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics think tank.Adeyemo said that the coalition of more than 30 countries supporting sanctions against Russia would continue to ratchet up pressure on Moscow. “As long as Russia’s invasion continues, our sanctions will continue. Even as we continue to pursue rigorous financial sanctions against Russia and its key financial institutions, the next phase of our work will be to take apart Russia’s war machine, piece by piece, by disrupting their military industrial complex and its supply chains.”China is outside of that coalition, but is continuing to comply with the sanctions now in place, “for the same basic reason of China’s business with the rest of the world is far greater than its business with Russia,” Adeyemo said.But Treasury is calling on China to press Russia to end its invasion of Ukraine because China values sovereignty and economic stability, Adeyemo said.Asked about whether sanctions on Russia will drive some major economies to find substitutes for the dollar, he said he expected the dollar to remain the world’s reserve currency as long as the United States continues to invest in its future and maintains a dynamic economy that attracts investment.He emphasized the multilateral approach to the Russia sanctions was important for the dollar, as the coalition of partners supporting them includes nearly every major convertible currency in the world. More

A senior official at the Treasury department has pushed back on warnings that the sweeping sanctions package announced by the US and its allies against Russia risks fracturing the international economy, vowing instead to take further retaliatory action if necessary.In a speech delivered on Monday, Wally Adeyemo, the deputy Treasury secretary, defended the unprecedented penalties imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, which have included sanctioning its central bank and restricting its access to the dollar-dominated global financial system.One concern is that by wielding these financial weapons, the US and its allies risk encouraging adversaries to spurn the dollar and seek out alternatives as well as create new systems that lead to a more fragmented global economy — criticism Adeyemo countered directly in his speech.“We have shown not only how indispensable this [global financial] system is and how costly it is to be excluded from it, but also the futility of trying to avoid it,” he said at an event hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “Russia’s efforts to insulate itself from sanctions have failed because of the strength of the financial system we have collectively built.”Adeyemo highlighted the multilateral nature of the sanctions package, which he said involved more than 30 countries that represent more than 50 per cent of the global economy and are “issuers of the world’s most widely used convertible currencies, and producers of the world’s cutting-edge technologies”.When asked specifically about the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency, Adeyemo noted that the US has the “deepest, most liquid” capital markets, a “dynamic” economy and a “stable” set of laws.“The dollar is going to remain ubiquitous, even for countries that are attempting to escape it,” he said during a discussion that followed his speech.

The sheer size of the coalition has meant Russia has had limited options to blunt the impact of the sanctions, which have caused a sharp recession and soaring inflation in the country. Energy and food prices globally have also jumped, exacerbating inflationary pressures that have ratcheted higher across advanced economies.Adeyemo said the US is prepared to take further action against Russia, with other top officials warning separately on Monday that the Treasury will also go after those who attempt to evade sanctions or facilitate such moves.“As long as Russia’s invasion continues, our sanctions will continue,” he said. “Even as we continue to pursue rigorous financial sanctions against Russia and its key financial institutions, the next phase of our work will be to take apart Russia’s war machine, piece by piece, by disrupting their military industrial complex and its supply chains.”He later added that he expects China to abide by the sanctions regime given that “China’s business with the rest of the world is far greater than its business with Russia”. More

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen plans to skip some sessions of this week’s G20 finance meeting in protest at Russia’s assault on Ukraine and will urge International Monetary Fund and World Bank members to increase pressure on Moscow, two senior U.S. Treasury officials said on Monday.The Treasury Department will concentrate on cracking down on those seeking to evade sweeping sanctions imposed on Russia over the war, and those who facilitate such efforts, one of the officials said.Yellen’s decision to avoid some sessions joined by Russian officials underscores the U.S. view that Russia should be excluded from global financial institutions because of its invasion, the official said.Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov may attend at least portions of the G20 meeting virtually, the official said, repeating Yellen’s recent comments that it can no longer be “business as usual” for Russia in the G20 and other international institutions.Yellen will attend the opening G20 finance session on the economic impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine, including the IMF’s forecast of a 35% contraction in Ukraine’s economic output this year. Even if Russian officials attend that session, the official said it was important for Yellen to participate in and stand with American allies in support of Ukraine.Washington and its allies will further pursue consultations on sanctions imposed on Russia, including a focus on thwarting evasion of sanctions previously imposed, one official said.The official declined to discuss specific next steps, but added that additional sanctions, including measures targeting Russian industries, would seek to further restrict Russia’s economy and ability to project power.Yellen will convene a high-level panel on Tuesday to discuss the global response to a food security crisis exacerbated by Russia’s invasion, the Treasury Department said.Moscow calls the assault on Ukraine a “special military operation.” More

Leading Scotch maker Chivas Brothers says it aims to double exports to India if New Delhi eliminates whisky tariffs, a top UK demand in bilateral trade talks ahead of prime minister Boris Johnson’s visit to India this week.India is the world’s largest whisky consumer, and the second-largest Scotch export market by volume. But the British industry blames 150 per cent Indian tariffs on imported liquor for holding back growth in the country of 1.4bn people.New Delhi’s levies on British whisky makers have become a sore point in UK-India trade relations and a core issue in trade talks that began earlier this year. Johnson will travel to India this week and meet prime minister Narendra Modi as he looks to advance the negotiations and broaden security co-operation in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Jean-Etienne Gourgues, chair of Chivas Brothers, part of France’s Pernod Ricard group, told the Financial Times that “the odds have never been so high” that a trade deal would be reached.Scotch “is a very small portion of all the whiskies which are being enjoyed [in India]”, he said. “The midterm target would be to at least double the size of the market. And with the size of the population of the middle class, I’ve seen the appetite is extremely high. It should become one of the top markets.”Trade between the UK and India was worth £18.5bn in 2020 but has stagnated over the past decade. By comparison trade between the UK and Belgium in the same year was £38bn.India currently takes 1.2 per cent of British exports — it is the UK’s 21st-biggest export market — and UK firms currently sell more to countries including Singapore, Sweden and Norway.London and New Delhi last year agreed a UK-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership to boost investment and jobs as part of a plan to double trade by 2030. But analysts remain sceptical that a long-mooted free trade deal could be reached and finalised in time for both British and Indian general elections in 2024.New Delhi’s longstanding demand for easier access to British visas for Indian students and skilled workers has proved politically contentious in the UK.Trade secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan told the Financial Times in January that “everything is on the table” including immigration as the countries look to finalise a deal.Sam Lowe, director of trade at Flint Global, said the UK had already given India “a lot of what they want” on immigration after Brexit and that a trade deal between the two sides was now possible.The removal of the so-called Tier 2 cap on skilled workers coming to the UK in December 2020 — and the UK’s decision to put Indian workers on the same footing as their EU counterparts — was a key moment.However, India is expected to push for more access for its students and workers to come to the UK in trade negotiations, to the discomfort of some Conservative MPs and immigration hawks in the Home Office.“Boris Johnson could do this, but it would involve a bit of a fight with the Home Office,” Lowe said. However, he warned that any trade deal between India and the UK might initially be “quite shallow”.He added that the politics “were not in the right place” for an early and ambitious trade deal, given New Delhi’s refusal to criticise Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Indian authorities have long been wary of opening up domestic industry with free trade deals, but the country recently signed an agreement with the United Arab Emirates and an interim deal with Australia.Most Indian whisky is locally produced and high levies on imported liquor are an important source of revenue for Indian authorities. But the country has also long taken an antagonistic view of the alcohol industry, with outright prohibition imposed in a number of states.The Scotch Whisky Association says a reduction in tariffs “must be the priority” in trade talks, and said it hoped the two countries could reach an interim “early harvest” agreement ahead of a full trade deal. More