Aurelia Butler

Tai and one of her deputies, Sarah Bianchi, discussed bilateral trade relations and the implications of Russia’s war against Ukraine for global trade and economic developments, USTR said in a statement.The meeting came a day after President Joe Biden told Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi that buying more oil from Russia was not in India’s interest and could hamper the U.S. response to the war in Ukraine.The United States is seeking more help from the world’s largest democracy in condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and pressuring Moscow to halt what it calls a “special military operation.” U.S. officials say India has its own concerns about deepening ties between Russia and China.Tai and Jaishankar also shared views on Biden’s initiative to launch an Indo-Pacific Economic Framework aimed at strengthening regional economic cooperation in critical areas such as supply chain resilience, USTR said.Washington has signaled it has no intention of engaging with China in the new framework, which it sees as a way to push back against China’s bid to create a regional sphere of influence and become the world’s most influential power.”They shared the perspective that the U.S.-India Trade Policy Forum (TPF), re-launched in November 2021, holds substantial promise as a mechanism for expanding bilateral trade and reducing barriers, including with respect to trade in agriculture,” it added.The two officials agreed to remain in touch as work continues toward a 2022 meeting of the U.S.-India trade forum, USTR said, but gave no specific date. More

(Reuters) – Gold advanced more than 1% on Tuesday as Treasury yields eased after U.S. inflation data largely met expectations, reducing the likelihood of long-term aggressive policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. Spot gold XAU= was up 0.7% at $1,967.61 per ounce by 2:39 p.m. ET (1839 GMT), having hit its highest in nearly a month earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures GCv1 settled up 1.4% at $1,976.10. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slipped after data showed inflation accelerated in March, but less than many market participants had expected. USD/ US/ (Full Story) MKTS/GLOB While gold is considered an inflation hedge, rising prices can lead central banks to hike interest rates, pushing up bond yields and increasing the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield bullion. “If we’re going to continue to see core inflation not surging to the same extent (as headline inflation), the Fed … may not be as aggressive as when core was moving higher,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said the combined effort of trimming its balance sheet and a series of rate hikes would help bring down inflation, adding a moderation in “core goods” inflation, excluding energy and food prices, is a “welcome” signal. “This doesn’t change anything over the short term,” with the Fed still expected to raise rates by 50 basis points next month to tame inflation, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst with OANDA. Gold continued to find support as a safe haven from developments surrounding Ukraine, with Russian troops massing for a new offensive. (Full Story) (Full Story) Palladium XPD= fell 3.5% to $2,346.66 per ounce on profit-taking, after hitting its highest since March 24 at $2,550.58 on Monday following the suspension of trading of the metal sourced from key producer Russia in London. Platinum XPT= was down 1.2% at $964.79. (Full Story) The suspension could exacerbate near-term palladium supply tightness, Standard Chartered (OTC:SCBFF) analysts said in a note. Spot silver XAG= rose 1.1% to $25.35 per ounce. More

(Reuters) -The Federal Reserve will conduct a series of interest rate hikes and begin reducing its massive bond holdings as soon as June to help bring down inflation that hit a fresh 40-year-high in March, Fed Governor Lael Brainard said on Tuesday.Getting inflation back down toward the Fed’s 2% goal is the central bank’s “most important task,” Brainard told the Wall Street Journal in an interview. Consumer prices soared 8.5% in March, a government report showed on Tuesday. Several of Brainard’s fellow policymakers, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, have signaled they may need to jack up interest rates in bigger-than-usual half-point increments to get policy more quickly to a neutral rate of about 2.4% so borrowing costs will at least no longer be stimulating growth.The Fed raised rates last month to a target range of 0.25% to 0.5%, its first increase in three years, and said more rate hikes were ahead.”In terms of exactly what the right pace of that set of increases in the policy rate from meeting to meeting, I don’t really want to focus on that,” Brainard told the Wall Street Journal in an interview. But combined with a shrinking balance sheet, she said, rate hikes will “bring the policy stance to more neutral posture expeditiously later this year,” she said. The Fed next meets to set policy in early May, with five more meetings scheduled through December. Policymakers are generally agreed on a plan to trim $95 billion monthly from their $9 trillion balance sheet, minutes from their March meeting show. That process over time should be the equivalent of raising the Fed’s policy rate two or three times, Brainard said. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has driven up food and energy prices, she noted, and “the longer the conflict persists — the more it escalates — the greater the potential risks, again, to the upside on inflation and to the downside on activity.”Sweeping lockdowns in China to deal with a surge in COVID-19 there could mean another inflationary shock if they tangle supply chains further, she said. Even so, she said, she expects demand – and therefore inflation – to fall this year not just because of tighter policy but also because households will no longer have the extra fiscal support that government provided last year to cushion the pandemic blow. She pointed to a moderation in inflation excluding food and energy, and particularly in what has been extremely strong core goods inflation, as a “welcome” signal in Tuesday’s inflation report.”I’ll be looking to see whether we continue to see moderation in the months ahead,” Brainard said. Core inflation, which she said reflects the strength of domestic demand and helps her assess where policy should be, slowed in March to a 0.3% gain from February, with prices of core goods falling 0.4%, the biggest drop since April 2020.SOFT LANDING?Analysts and investors worry that if the Fed tightens policy too fast it could send the economy into a recession if businesses respond to higher borrowing costs and falling demand by slashing jobs. Brainard said she doesn’t necessarily see it going that way, given that job openings are at a near-record. “I think there’s quite a bit of capacity for labor demand to moderate among businesses by actually reducing job openings without necessitating high levels of layoffs,” she said. Meanwhile, she said, supply will have a chance to catch up “a bit” as workers return to the job market and producers work out kinks in the supply chain. “I don’t want to be too rigid in how I think about the appropriate course of policy over the remainder of this year and into next year,” she said, noting that no one had anticipated the twin shocks to inflation from Russia’s war and China’s fresh lockdowns. “By moving expeditiously towards a more neutral posture, it provides the committee with optionality in either direction.” More