Aurelia Butler

European shares fell on Tuesday, while government debt came under pressure and oil rebounded, as investors prepared for the latest US inflation figures and weighed up what it might mean for central bank interest rate policy.The regional Stoxx 600 index declined 0.6 per cent, Germany’s Dax fell 1 per cent and France’s Cac 40 lost 0.8 per cent. London’s FTSE 100 fell 0.4 per cent. European bank stocks were among the worst performers, with shares in German lenders Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank both down more than 8 per cent. Andrew McCaffery, global chief investment officer at Fidelity International, said he was “particularly cautious” on European equities and the euro — down 0.1 per cent against the dollar on Tuesday — given the “likelihood” of recession. The war in Ukraine would weigh on economic growth and stoke inflation, he added, leaving central bank policymakers and markets facing “an extremely complex picture”.Investor attention will be focused on the latest US inflation measurements due out later on Tuesday, with the consumer price index for March forecast to have risen 8.4 per cent year over year, according to a Reuters poll. “This kind of number should support market expectations that the [US Federal Reserve] will take the policy rate towards the 2.5 per cent area by year end,” analysts at ING said in a note. The Fed last month lifted its benchmark interest rate a quarter of a percentage point to 0.5 per cent, the first increase since 2018.Selling of US government debt moderated on Tuesday ahead of the inflation reading. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note, which underpins global borrowing costs, rose 0.01 percentage point to 2.79 per cent, hovering close to its highest level since late 2018. The yield on the interest rate-sensitive two-year note rose 0.01 percentage point to 2.52 per cent. The yield on the 10-year German Bund, a proxy for European borrowing costs, added 0.03 percentage points to 0.84 per cent, its highest level since 2015. The yield on the government note stood at about minus 0.12 per cent at the beginning of the year. US futures pointed lower, with contracts tracking Wall Street’s S&P 500 and the technology-focused Nasdaq 100 both down. White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters on Monday that March’s headline CPI inflation was expected to be “extraordinarily elevated”, pushed higher by rising prices for energy since Russian president Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in late February. So-called core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was forecast to come in lower, she added.The average cost of a barrel of oil in March was about $110, Psaki noted, up from about $75 at the beginning of the year. Oil prices, which fell on Monday, rebounded back above $100 a barrel on Tuesday. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, rose 4.3 per cent to $102.71 a barrel, while US marker West Texas Intermediate climbed 3.5 per cent to $97.63In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index closed up 0.5 per cent. China’s CSI 300 added 1.9 per cent. Japan’s Topix shed 1.4 per cent and South Korea’s Kospi declined 1 per cent. More

“It’s a manoeuvre by Emmanuel Macron to try to win over, or at least to mitigate the opposition of the left-leaning voters”, said Le Pen on Tuesday, speaking in an interview with France Inter radio. Campaigning in France’s former industrial heartland, Macron on Monday said he was prepared to readjust his planned pension reform, which is at the core of his programme for re-election. “I am ready to change the timeline and say we don’t necessarily have to do a reform by 2030 if I feel that people are too anxious”, Macron said. He was also prepared, he said, to “open the door” on pushing the country’s retirement age from 62 at the moment to 64, rather than 65, his initial proposal. “There is nothing to expect here from Emmanuel Macron. He will go all the way to the end with obsession, because it’s a reality that the minimum (retirement) age of 65 is his obsession”, said Le Pen. French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, an ally of Macron, told broadcaster CNews that Macron had not changed his plans on the pensions reform and is still “totally determined” to carry out the reform. “We will stick to (the minimum age of) 65, but there will be options for discussing details,” said Le Maire. Manuel Bompard, the head of the campaign of far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, who came in third in the first round, said he did not agree with Macron’s or Le Pen’s retirement proposals.”I tell Macron this: If he really wants to appeal to our voters … he has to make a clear commitment,” he said.Speaking on Public Senat television, Bompard pointed to the possibility mentioned by Macron of carrying out a national referendum on the minimum pension age.An Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll cited by Public Senat said 23% of Melenchon voters would now support Macron, 15% Le Pen and a further 62% did not take a position.Macron and Le Pen traded blows on Monday as they sought to appeal to left-leaning voters who now face the tough decision whether to give their vote to a far-right populist or to a liberal many opponents branded a “president of the rich”. Election Take-A-Look: More

LONDON (Reuters) -Supply chain snags hammered first-half profit at ASOS (LON:ASOS) and the British online fashion retailer warned its expectations for a much better second half could be disrupted by surging inflation. Shares in the company, which sells fast-fashion aimed at 20-somethings, dropped as much as 6% in early Tuesday trading after it reported an 87% plunge in first-half adjusted earnings. However, they bounced back to last trade over 2% higher after it said stock levels – heavily affected in recent months by industry-wide supply chain problems – were much improved. ASOS, which had warned on full-year profits in October when parting ways with then CEO Nick Beighton, said it was sticking with its latest annual guidance – excluding the already-flagged impact of quitting Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. But it cautioned there was a greater risk to forecasting that normal as the full impact of recent inflationary pressure on consumers was yet to be felt.Chief operating officer Mat Dunn said he expected analysts to trim about 14 million pounds ($18 million) from full-year profit guidance of 110-140 million pounds, to take account of the withdrawal from Russia. ASOS made an adjusted profit of 193.6 million pounds in its 2020-21 financial year.The company said its forecasts reflected an improved stock profile, the easing of comparative growth rates, the return of event and holiday-led demand, increased marketing investment and improved lead-times as supply chain pressures ease.”We’ve opened the (spring/summer) season with a very good level of stock,” Dunn told Reuters.”There is some uncertainty around (supply from) China, but we’re in a much better situation than we were at the start of autumn/winter.”Dunn said ASOS had raised prices by a low to mid-single percentage in January, but not since.”We’re making sure that our value proposition is as attractive to customers as it can be and we’ve definitely absorbed some of the inflationary pressures in order to do that,” he said.Dunn said the process to recruit a new CEO was ongoing.Adjusted profit before tax was 14.8 million pounds for the six months to Feb. 28, down from 112.9 million pounds a year earlier. Revenue was up 4% to 2.0 billion pounds.($1 = 0.7685 pounds) More