Aurelia Butler

PARIS (Reuters) -French leader Emmanuel Macron and challenger Marine Le Pen qualified on Sunday for what promises to be a very tightly fought presidential election runoff on April 24, pitting a pro-European economic liberal against a far-right nationalist.With partial results putting Macron in first place ahead of Le Pen after the first-round voting, other major candidates admitted defeat. Except for another far-right candidate, Eric Zemmour, they all urged voters to block the far-right in the second round.But after five years in power in which his abrasive style has upset many, while Le Pen succeeded in softening her image, Macron will have to fight hard to win back disgruntled voters. He cannot take it for granted that voters will rally around a traditional anti-far right front.”Nothing is decided, and the battle we will wage in the next 15 days will be decisive for France and Europe,” Macron told supporters, urging all voters to rally behind him on April 24th to stop the far-right from ruling the European Union’s second-largest economy.Ifop pollsters predicted a very tight runoff, with 51% for Macron and 49% for Le Pen. The gap is so tight that victory either way is within the margin of error. Other pollsters offered a slightly bigger margin in favour of Macron, with up to 54%. But that was in any case much narrower than in 2017, when Macron beat Le Pen with 66.1% of the votes.Le Pen, who had eaten into Macron’s once-commanding 10-point poll lead in recent weeks thanks to a campaign focused on cost-of-living issues said she was the one to protect the weak and unite a nation tired of its elite.”What will be at stake on April 24 is a choice of society, a choice of civilisation,” she told supporters, who chanted “We will win!” as she told them: “I will bring order back to France.”Macron, meanwhile, told supporters waving French and EU flags: “The only project that is credible to help purchasing power is ours.””DISASTROUS”With 96% of the votes counted for Sunday’s first round, Macron garnered 27.41% of the votes and Le Pen 24.03%. A near total count of the vote was expected for later in the night. A Le Pen victory on April 24 would be a similar jolt to the establishment as Britain’s Brexit vote to leave the European Union (EU) or Donald Trump’s 2017 entry into the White House.France would lurch from being a driving force for European integration to being led by a euro-sceptic who is also suspicious of the NATO military alliance. While Le Pen has ditched past ambitions for a “Frexit” or to haul France out of the euro zone’s single currency, she envisages the EU as a mere alliance of sovereign states.Conservative candidate Valerie Pecresse warned of “disastrous consequences” if Macron lost, while the Socialists’ Anne Hidalgo urged supporters to vote for him “so that France does not fall into hatred.””Not one vote for Le Pen!” added hard-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, who, according to the estimates, placed third with around 20% of the votes.But they all also had very harsh words for Macron and some of the very unpopular policies of his first mandate as well as an abrasive style that has put off many voters. “Emmanuel Macron played with fire,” Pecresse told supporters.”PAY ATTENTION” Zemmour acknowledged disagreements with Le Pen, but said Macron was a worse choice. Barely a month ago, Macron seemed on course for a comfortable re-election that, riding high in polls thanks to strong economic growth, a fragmented opposition and his statesman role in trying to avert war in Ukraine on Europe’s eastern flank.But he paid a price for late entry into the campaign during which he eschewed market walkabouts in provincial France in favour of a single big rally outside Paris. A plan to make people work longer also proved unpopular, enabling Le Pen to narrow the gap.Le Pen, an open admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin until his invasion of Ukraine, had for months toured towns and villages across France. She focused on cost-of-living issues troubling millions and tapped into anger toward rulers.”Marine Le Pen knew how to talk to people about their more concrete problems. During the next two weeks he (Macron) will have to pay more attention to what is happening in France, take a diplomatic break,” said Adrien Thierry, a 23-year old Macron supporter.As the vote count progressed, Melenchon’s score rose to close to Le Pen’s, with 21.57% of the votes, while none of the others were in the double-digits, leading some supporters to briefly hope for a change in the final line-up, which eventually seemed out of reach. More

“Of course we will sue, because we have taken all the necessary steps to ensure that investors receive their payments,” Siluanov told the newspaper in an interview.”We will present in court our bills confirming our efforts to pay both in foreign currency and in roubles. It will not be an easy process. We will have to very actively prove our case, despite all the difficulties.”Siluanov did not elaborate on Russia’s legal options. Russia faces its first sovereign external default in more than a century after it made arrangements to make an international bond repayment in roubles earlier this week, even though the payment was due in U.S. dollars.Last week, Siluanov said Russia will do everything possible to make sure its creditors are paid.”Russia tried in good faith to pay off external creditors,” Siluanov said on Monday. “Nevertheless, the deliberate policy of Western countries is to artificially create a man-made default by all means.”Siluanov said Russia’s external liabilities amount to about 20% of the total public debt, which stood at about 21 trillion roubles ($261.7 billion). Of that, about 4.5-4.7 trillion roubles were external liabilities. Russia has not defaulted on its external debt since the aftermath of its 1917 revolution, but its bonds have now emerged as a flashpoint in its economic tussle with Western countries. A default was unimaginable until recently, with Russia rated as investment grade in the run up to its Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a “special military operation” and which on Sunday intensified in eastern Ukraine.”If an economic and financial war is waged against our country, we are forced to react, while still fulfilling all our obligations,” Siluanov said. “If we are not allowed to do it in foreign currency, we do it in roubles.”($1 = 80.2500 roubles) More

TOKYO (Reuters) -The Bank of Japan’s rare reappointment of a veteran technocrat behind the country’s massive monetary stimulus positions the bank for an eventual exit from governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s radical policies when his term ends next year.Having spent most of his career at the BOJ’s elite monetary affairs department, Shinichi Uchida, 59, was instrumental in drafting Kuroda’s “bazooka” asset-buying programme in 2013 and negative interest policy in 2016.While those policies create an image of him being a proponent of heavy monetary stimulus, Uchida also led the BOJ’s drive to slow its huge bond buying by introducing yield curve control in 2016 – a policy that caps long-term interest rates at zero but also relieved the central bank from buying bonds at a set pace.As its balance sheet became bloated and the financial sector’s pain from prolonged easing became more apparent, Uchida was instrumental in crafting steps to slow the BOJ’s purchases of risky assets and ease the strain on banks from low rates.The reappointment for another four-year term as the BOJ’s executive director, announced this month, will have Uchida, who joined the bank in 1986, oversee monetary policy design well beyond the end of Kuroda’s term in April next year.Uchida’s technical expertise and deep experience mean the dismantling of YCC, whenever it happens, will go smoothly, while his bi-partisan nature mean he will be a help, not a hindrance, to the rollback of Kuroda’s stimulus, say three sources familiar with the matter.”Because he’s created this complex framework, he’s probably the best person to roll it back,” said Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at Daiwa Securities and a veteran BOJ watcher.”That’s his strength, as well as his ability to quickly change tack on policy when he sees fit.”The BOJ has six executive directors that assist the board in making decisions on key matters. The roles are highly sought after and offered to only a handful of top BOJ staff.Uchida’s reappointment is unusual – historically, such positions last only a single four-year term, after which the officials retire from the BOJ for private sector jobs.NEITHER HAWK NOR DOVEHaving spent most of his career at the monetary affairs department, Uchida made his mark with a knack for designing complex policy frameworks and his ability to navigate BOJ leadership transitions.People who know him say Uchida is sharp-minded and worked well under both the dovish Kuroda and his predecessor Masaaki Shirakawa, who was wary of ramping up stimulus too much.”He’s a genius in crafting sophisticated policy ideas,” one of people said. “It’s hard to brand him as a hawk or dove.”That means Uchida is well placed to craft plans to either prolong the lifespan of YCC, or gradually phase it out.To be sure, the BOJ is in no rush to withdraw stimulus as it focuses on underpinning a fragile economic recovery, rather than fret about the prospect of too-high inflation.But some in the BOJ are wary of Japan becoming increasingly isolated in a global shift in central banking towards tighter monetary policy.While Japan’s comparably subdued inflation allows the BOJ to keep rates low for longer than its counterparts, there is near consensus within the bank its next move will be to dial back – not ramp up – stimulus, the sources say.Untangling YCC, a complex patchwork of measures to keep rates low while addressing the side-effects of prolonged easing without upending markets, is no easy task.The BOJ traditionally spends years brainstorming scenarios on its next possible move, a process in which Uchida will likely be deeply involved, the sources say.”If there’s even a slim chance of a policy tweak in the long run, the BOJ needs to be ready,” a second source said. “Uchida will certainly play a key role in the process.” More