Aurelia Butler

In northern Italy, the supermarkets have been cleared of pasta. Pharmacies in Norway are sold out of iodine tablets. And in Germany, trade groups are warning against Hamsterkäufe — “hamster shopping”, or panic buying.Two years on from the early pandemic shortages that sent consumers rushing to stock up on toilet paper, Russia’s war in Ukraine has sparked a fresh wave of hoarding in parts of Europe. “I bought 20 packs of pasta and several kilos of flour last week in preparation for shortages,” said Sabrina Di Leto, 50, from Lecco, north of Milan. “We’re also looking at converting our backyard into a vegetable garden and a henhouse in order to be self-sufficient in case we go to war and food supplies become scarce,” she added.Shoppers schooled in supply chain economics after witnessing the effects of coronavirus on global trade are now stocking up based on cold war anxieties or anticipated shortages from the now embattled bread basket of Europe.Ukraine and Russia are critical global suppliers of wheat, as well as sunflower, rapeseed, flaxseed and soy used for cooking oils and in animal feed. Half of global sunflower oil exports come from Ukraine and a further 21 per cent from Russia.Nearly 90 per cent of flaxseed processed in the EU is imported, according to the Association of the Oilseed Processing Industry in Germany. It said that the war in Ukraine was likely to cause shortages in cooking oils and animal feed that would be “very difficult to substitute” in the short term. Prices of bread, pasta, and meat are already rising in Italy, which imports much of its wheat from eastern Europe and 80 per cent of its sunflower oil from Ukraine, as well as large amounts of corn used to feed animals.A loaf currently costs up to €8 per kilo in Milan. It would have cost an average of €4.25 in November, according to Coldiretti, the national agriculture trade organisation.Prices of bread, pasta and meat are already rising in Italy, which imports much of its wheat from eastern Europe © Alessia Pierdomenico/Bloomberg“Its ridiculous that bread, which has always been poor people’s food, has become a luxury item,” complained Di Leto, saying that she had stockpiled flour to bake her own and save money.German grocers have been forced to ration sales of cooking oil in an effort to prevent another round of Hamsterkäufe. The national slang for hoarding became popular during the pandemic, and comes from the rodent’s habit of stuffing its cheeks with food.Otherwise well-stocked markets have bare shelves where flour and cooking oils are normally stored. “Please show solidarity and think of your neighbours — refrain from stocking up unnecessarily!” read a sign outside a Penny supermarket in Frankfurt.Lieselotte, an 85-year-old shopper, said she had been allowed to buy just a single bottle of sunflower oil. As part of Germany’s dwindling band of second world war Kriegskinder, or “war children”, she believed that she was better prepared to accept shortages than the younger generation. “We know this from our childhood. But today’s youth are used to having everything,” she said.Panic buying looks different in the Nordics, where fighting close to Ukraine’s Chernobyl plant and President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear posturing have revived cold war anxieties.In Norway, there has been a run on iodine pills used to combat the effect of radiation. More than 1.7mn tablets have been sold in recent weeks, according to local media, and pharmacies will have no more available until next month.Not all of Europe has been gripped by panic buying. Retailer Carrefour, which has a large presence in France, Spain and Italy, said it had not experienced the shortages that accompanied the start of the pandemic.“There’s been some people stocking up in France, and a bit more in Spain where we’ve sold out of sunflower oil in some places, but overall this behaviour remains marginal and the market is functioning pretty much as normal,” it said. Serious supply shortages will hit poorer countries that are dependent on wheat from Ukraine and Russia harder than Europe. Jan Egeland, of the Norwegian Refugee Council, warned that Somalia imported 90 per cent of wheat from Ukraine and Russia.“With wheat prices soaring and drought worsening, the number of people that cannot be fed will explode,” he wrote on Twitter.Middle East grain importers are bracing for havoc on budgets in places such as Egypt, which subsidises bread for 70mn people. Flour shelves have been emptied in Lebanon and Tunisia, with locals accusing shopkeepers of hoarding basic goods to sell later at high prices. Supermarkets in Turkey, where households are already struggling with soaring inflation, sold out of sunflower oil after news headlines warned that the country could face shortages.In Spain, a government minister suggested that, rather than panic buying sunflower oil, the nation should grease its pans with olive oil — a product his country has exported for more than two millennia.“The sunflower oil issue is not really a problem because we have other vegetable fats and we have olive oil,” said Luis Planas, Spain’s agriculture minister. He noted that shares in some big olive oil producers had shot up more than 20 per cent in recent weeks.Another winner — which some critics suspect is benefiting unfairly — may be petrol providers. Germany this week warned that it would watch suppliers for price gouging after crude prices dropped but petrol costs stayed high, at €2.26 per litre, compared with €1.81 before the invasion.For German shoppers such as Monika, 75, perusing the aisles of the Penny supermarket, the costs are an important reminder that in a global economy, no one can escape the cost of war. “We all have to pay the price for what is happening in Ukraine,” she said.Additional reporting by Laura Pitel in Ankara, Daniel Dombey in Madrid, Leila Abboud in Paris and Heba Saleh in Cairo More

Russian oil exports to India have quadrupled this month in a sign of the vast reshaping of global energy flows since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. India, the world’s third-largest energy consuming country, has snapped up multiple cargoes of Russian oil from traders as buyers in Europe shunned the country’s vast commodities market following western sanctions on Moscow. Russia has exported 360,000 barrels a day of oil to India in March so far, nearly four times the 2021 average. The country is on track to hit 203,000 b/d for the whole month based on current shipment schedules, according to Kpler, a commodities data and analytics firm. Export data represent cargoes that have been loaded on to tankers and are en route to India.Alex Booth, head of research at Kpler, said India typically buys CPC, a blend of predominantly Kazakh and Russian crude, but the big increase in March was for Russia’s flagship Urals crude, suggesting Indian buyers weighed up significant discounts against public opinion.“Already committed oil cargoes from Russia that can’t find buyers in Europe are being bought by India,” he said. “Exports to India surged in March before any official announcement by New Delhi.”On Tuesday, White House press secretary Jen Psaki warned that India would be on the wrong side of history if it bought Russian oil, although she acknowledged the purchases would not violate US sanctions.Historically, Russian crude oil has constituted below 5 per cent of India’s total imports, which were 4.2mn b/d last year. “Indian companies weren’t sourcing much from Russia given high shipping costs,” said Vivekanand Subbaraman, research analyst at Ambit Capital. “This appears to be changing now.”Lars Barstad, chief executive of Frontline, a New York-listed tanker company, said that the discount on Russian Urals was about $25-30 a barrel, whereas freight rates would only add $3-4 per barrel, making the trade economic. Frontline and other tanker companies have been avoiding trading Russian oil because of the complexity of complying with sanctions, but many oil majors and traders are legally bound under contracts to keep lifting Russian barrels.India and Russia have a longstanding partnership, from defence to trade, and Putin visited India last December — only his second overseas trip since the pandemic. New Delhi has so far abstained on UN votes condemning Russian aggression.With 85 per cent of India’s crude needs covered by imports, higher oil prices act as a drag on its treasury.Subbaraman said: “I think that all three state-owned refiners will purchase oil from Russia given how import dependent and politically sensitive energy is for Indians.”Speaking to Indian lawmakers this week, Indian oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri stressed that energy prices in India have not soared as much as they have in Europe and the US, rising only 5 per cent. India would act in the interest of local consumers within “the margin of persuasion”, he added.Russia’s deputy prime minister Alexander Novak and Singh Puri spoke by phone last week. “We are interested in further attracting Indian investment to the Russian oil and gas sector and expanding Russian companies’ sales networks in India,” Novak said. Indian officials have said that the central bank and government are looking at establishing a rupee-rouble trading mechanism, which would facilitate trade after western restrictions on international payments to and from Russia. The two countries have several joint energy interests. Rosneft owns 49 per cent of Nayara Energy, which runs India’s second largest refinery. India’s Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Indian Oil Corporation and Nayara Energy did not respond to requests for comment. More

From anti-ageing creams to cosmetic “tweakments”, there are plenty of ways we can to try to wind back the years. But if it were possible to turn back the clock, would you really want to be a 20-something right now?The escalating cost of living crisis is squeezing the youngest generation of workers especially hard. As a cohort, they are saddled with high and rising student debt, weak earnings growth and impossibly high property prices. Never mind saving enough to buy a home. I fear the high cost of renting means many will be more likely to be living inside somebody’s pension than be able to afford to pay into their own.As “Awful April” looms, higher national insurance and the frozen student loans repayment threshold will take a bite out of pay packets, just as the cost of everything from energy bills to transport costs shoots up. Yet by ’Orrible October, the average annual energy bill is predicted to exceed £3,000 as the war in Ukraine intensifies inflationary pressures, including the cost of the weekly shop. The Bank of England this week warned it expected inflation to hit 8 per cent by June.This will be financially catastrophic for millions of Britons on low incomes, and chancellor Rishi Sunak is coming under huge pressure to do more to cushion the blow at the Spring Statement next week. I do not hold out much hope, but the Treasury also needs to acknowledge the struggle for younger generations and show them it is listening. While young professionals at the outset of their careers won’t be facing poverty, their financial horizons are shrinking fast. As the FT launches the third series of the Money Clinic podcast, I’ve been hearing what our 20- and 30-something listeners have to say about the real-life impact. This week’s guest, 22-year-old graduate Lil, finds that managing her money is consuming more and more of her time. “I can’t wait for the day where I don’t have to have the constant pressure of being careful,” she says. She’s not talking about a big blowout — just the luxury of an occasional treat as anything barring essentials is expunged from her day-to-day budget to cover rising bills.As Lil says on the podcast, what worries her the most is that saving for a rainy day is something she can no longer afford to do. She’s increasingly having to turn to her savings for small emergencies, but cannot replenish them at the same rate. She hasn’t considered opting out of her workplace pension yet — but come the autumn, I wonder how many might be tempted?As a young renter living in a house share, her efforts to budget through the crisis could be undone if other flatmates are not so careful. If one can’t make the monthly rent or bills, the rest will have to cover the loss or see their credit scores plunge (this could also come back on parents who have signed up as rental guarantors).Could digital nudges help manage this? NatWest has just launched a new app called Housemate (although customers of any bank can use it). Powered by Open Banking, the free service enables renters to split bills and send “who owes what” payment requests and reminders. While young renters like Lil are understandably anxious about how much more expensive life could yet become, the fear is more acute for those with even less slack in their budgets — those on the lowest incomes.Even though Sunak has the scope for a big fiscal giveaway next week, most economists think that — other than a temporary cut to fuel duty — he will keep his power dry for the autumn Budget, and instead focus on measures to help businesses in the hope this will stave off a future recession.

As the government waits to see how the energy crisis will unfold between now and the next price cap increase in October, they will hope April’s £150 council tax rebate will be enough to keep voters happy — for now. There is huge pressure for this to be increased for the worst affected households, and for October’s £200 “heat now, pay later” scheme to be converted into a non-repayable grant. I fear both are about as likely as the chances of a U-turn on national insurance or the £20 universal credit uplift.But if the chancellor does nothing to help those on the lowest incomes, by October, problem debt will become the only certainty for millions of people — from the lowest earners to young renters and many others besides. Christians Against Poverty, one of the UK’s biggest debt charities, is calling on the Treasury to consider pulling other levers to reduce levels of personal indebtedness. “The government is effectively the largest debt collector in the country, and also the most forceful because of the tools they have available to make deductions from universal credit without conducting affordability checks,” says Gareth McNab, the charity’s director of external affairs. “Many people don’t know this, but up to 25 per cent of someone’s standard universal credit allowance can be deducted to repay the initial five week advance or collect historic tax credit debts, many of which were run up as a result of faults in the system,” he says. As more people claim universal credit, CAP says it’s becoming easier to find people and automatically deduct these historic debts. “Banks and financial services companies have to work with you to ensure all of the debt is yours and find an affordable repayment plan — but the government doesn’t have to, and this is causing significant distress for the poorest households,” he says.CAP is campaigning for the same affordability assessments used for debts owed to banks and credit card lenders to be applied to debts owed to the state — something I am sure many FT readers will be staggered to learn is not already the case. This would go some way to alleviating the cost of living crisis for the poorest, but looking at the scale of the price rises to come in October, it’s not going to be enough.If it were possible to measure levels of financial anxiety, I am sure they would look as dramatic as charts showing the huge spikes in global commodities prices — something the chancellor needs to recognise at the despatch box next week. Given this precarious outlook, would you want to trade places with someone in their 20s? As a 40-something with a property and pension savings that have been hugely boosted by the asset bubble, I’m not only prepared to live with the wrinkles, but higher taxes to help soften the blow on those with the least.Claer Barrett is the FT’s consumer editor: [email protected]; Twitter @Claerb; Instagram @Claerb More

How well did you keep up with the news this week? Take our quiz.Companies have been forced to close factories in north-eastern Japan after a powerful earthquake struck off the coast, killing two people and reviving memories of the devastating 2011 tsunami that left 20,000 dead. Transportation links to the region were severed and thousands of homes were without electricity following the 7.4-magnitude earthquake late on Wednesday evening. Carmakers Toyota and Nissan and chipmaker Renesas suspended operations at their factories in the area, as residents swept shattered glass from the streets and authorities surveyed towns for damage. “We will take all possible measures to respond to the disaster,” prime minister Fumio Kishida said, adding that Japan could be hit again by aftershocks in the coming days.The quake hit Japan as the country debates whether to restart nuclear power plants. Kishida believes it is crucial to resume operations. Fresh concerns over nuclear safety will weaken his case and weigh down utilities stocks, writes Lex. Do you support nuclear power plants in Japan? Tell me what you think in our latest poll.

Thanks for reading FirstFT Asia. Send your feedback on this newsletter to [email protected]. Now for the rest of today’s news — EmilyThe war in Ukraine: The latest: The US secretary of state has poured cold water on hopes of a diplomatic settlement to the war in Ukraine as he attacked Moscow for its increasingly gruesome assaults on civilian targets.Debt: JPMorgan has processed interest payments sent by the Russian government for two of the country’s bonds, boosting investor expectations that Moscow will avoid defaulting on its debt for the first time since 1998. Trade: India’s central bank is in initial consultations on a rupee-rouble trade arrangement with Moscow that would enable exports to Russia to continue after western sanctions restricted international payment mechanisms.Economic impact: From price surges to panic buying, tough sanctions on Moscow have sparked fears of shortages and soaring costs. In Free Lunch, Martin Sandbu explains what we know about the economic impact of the war.Russia-China ties: Listen to our Twitter Spaces discussing how China is positioning itself in the war, featuring FT’s Demetri Sevastopulo, Kathrin Hille and Marc Filippino.Big Read: Ukraine — a divided country, deeply cynical about its government — has discovered a new sense of national identity while under fire.Follow our live blog and updated maps for the latest on the conflictFive more stories in the news1. US and European stocks rise after central banks tighten policy US and European stocks rose on Thursday in choppy trading, following sharp rallies in the previous session, as traders weighed developments in Ukraine and central banks’ moves to tighten monetary policy.2. Sri Lanka forced into IMF U-turn after protests The country has begun talks with the IMF over a debt relief package after protests over a deepening economic crisis forced Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s government into a policy U-turn. It previously insisted that Sri Lanka would be able to navigate the crisis without IMF assistance.

Demonstrators in Sri Lanka have demanded the resignation of the government over its handling of the economy © AFP via Getty Images

3. Amazon closes deal to acquire film studio MGM The $8.45bn acquisition, which includes debt, is Amazon’s largest in the media space and its biggest of any kind since the $13.7bn purchase of Whole Foods in 2017. Amazon closed its deal after US and European competition regulators declined to block the move, despite growing concern over the ecommerce giant’s size.4. Spotify draws up plans to join NFT craze Spotify is drawing up plans to add blockchain technology and non-fungible tokens to its streaming service. Two recent job advertisements show Spotify is recruiting people to work on early-stage projects related to Web3.5. Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe released from Iran UK-Iranian dual national Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe has arrived back in Britain after being detained by Tehran almost six years ago, in a move that could boost western diplomatic efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear accord.Coronavirus digest Corporate chiefs at some of Japan’s biggest companies have called on the government to lift some of Asia’s strictest pandemic restrictions to help unleash two years of pent-up demand for cross-border mergers and acquisitions.Ping An, one of the world’s biggest insurers by market value, suffered its biggest profit fall in more than a decade last year owing to Covid-related weakness in demand and a hit from soured property developments.AstraZeneca’s head of research and development has said the UK drugmaker would consider not submitting its Covid-19 vaccine for approval in the US if it finds it is “banging its head against a brick wall indefinitely” with regulators.The days aheadBiden-Xi call US president Joe Biden will hold a phone call with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on Friday to discuss the war in Ukraine, among other issues.Quadruple Witching Day Today is the day stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single-stock futures expire, creating a flood of trading volume and arbitrage opportunities. (FT, Investopedia) South Australian elections Voters go to the polls on Saturday for state parliamentary elections in South Australia, where a Labor victory appears likely. (The Conversation) What else we’re reading The fastest growing companies in Asia-Pacific The fourth annual ranking of high-growth companies in Asia-Pacific is our most competitive to date. An ecommerce business from the Philippines tops the list, while Japan is home to the most growth champions.China Inc unconvinced Xi’s regulatory storm is over Vice premier Liu He’s pledge that Beijing would support the economy and financial markets had immediate effect in stemming a market rout on Wednesday. Yet analysts and insiders have warned that Liu’s comments might not mean the end of Beijing’s punishing regulatory overhaul and unpredictable policymaking.Mukesh Ambani vs Jeff Bezos: The battle for India retail The long-running saga has pitted two of the world’s richest people against each other for the future of Indian retail. It highlights the difficulties for overseas ecommerce companies seeking to expand in a country that has 1.4bn consumers, but where regulations give local players an advantage.Maths skills oil the wheels of financial literacy The biggest service we could do for future financial literacy is to embed mathematical skills for today’s pupils, writes Hilary Cooper. This article is the latest part of the FT’s Financial Literacy and Inclusion Campaign.WellnessAt some point in the past couple of years, the practice of missing meals has grown so common as to be unremarkable. But when does it become dangerous? Jamie Waters explores the truth about fasting. More

The Deutsche Bank (DE:DBKGn) Trust Company Americas (DBTCA) increased the rate to 3.50% from 3.25%, effective Thursday, the bank said.On Wednesday, Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C), Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) & Co, JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) and Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) each lifted their base rates to 3.5% from 3.25%.The U.S. central bank, looking to counter economic risks posed by excessive inflation, raised its benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday.Banks, which make money on the difference between what they earn from lending and pay out on deposits and other funds, typically thrive in a high interest rate environment. More

NEW YORK (Reuters) -At least five vessels are headed toward Russia with nearly 200,000 tonnes of Brazilian raw sugar sold by European traders, according to shipping data seen by Reuters, about double the country’s normal annual imports of the sweetener.Sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have boosted demand for sugar and other food staples there, and store shelves have been emptying due to food hoarding. Yet sanctions may also make it harder for shippers to get paid for their cargoes.The volume of sugar being shipped is unusually high, traders said, noting Russia tends to import roughly 100,000 tonnes of sugar per year. Russia is not a notable importer or exporter of sugar, but Russians have started to hoard the sweetener.While sugar sales are not covered by the sanctions, financial transactions are. Also, analysts said security issues in the Black Sea may hinder the vessels.Black Sea shipping routes have been tangled as the war has shut ports in Ukraine and as companies refuse to buy some commodities from Russia. A U.S.-based trader said the Russia-bound ships are waiting in the Black Sea area for clearance to move to the Novorossiysk port in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai area.In addition to the Russian shipments, there are also three vessels with nearly 100,000 tonnes of sugar heading to Russia’s neighbor Georgia, according to port movement data provided by shipping agencies in Brazil and information from sugar market traders.Russia was expected to import only around 100,000 tonnes of sugar in the whole year from all suppliers, not just Brazil, according to data from the International Sugar Organization. Georgia was expected to import 130,000 tonnes.”Well, all that sugar might land in Georgia, but then it will be sent to Russia,” said a U.S.-based sugar trader.Another sugar trader, based in Brazil, said the volumes are too high for a short period of time, both for Russia and for Georgia, saying buyers were probably looking to boost stocks. Shipments to both Russia and Georgia were loaded on vessels leaving Brazil, the world’s largest sugar exporter, with three European food traders and one Brazilian company behind the deals: Sucden, Louis Dreyfus Co and Tereos in Europe, and Raizen in Brazil. Sucden is the largest player in those deals, with one vessel heading to Georgia and four ships going to Russia with a total amount of 188,250 tonnes of raw sugar. The company did not respond to questions about safety and payment for the cargoes.Dreyfus said the vessel Pu Lan Hai, which left Brazil late in February declaring Russia as its destination, will now leave part of the load in Egypt and the remainder in Georgia. It declined to comment further.Dreyfus, one of the world’s largest commodities traders, said on March 4 it was stopping operations in Russia due to the conflict in Ukraine, which Moscow has called a “special operation.”Tereos said the vessel with 50,000 tonnes of sugar heading to Russia had been resold to another shipper and it is not in charge of that deal anymore. It says it complies with current European rules. Raizen declined to comment. More