Aurelia Butler

The Federal Reserve is expected to lift its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2018 and set the stage for rate rises at most of the remaining seven policy meetings this year as it seeks to combat the highest inflation in four decades. The US central bank is all but guaranteed to increase the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, bringing the target range to 0.25 to 0.50 per cent, in the latest milestone for the US economy in its recovery from the pandemic.Fed officials are also set to sharply revise higher their projections for interest rates this year compared to three months’ prior, when they had forecast three quarter-point rate rises in 2022, followed by five more through 2024.Policymakers on Wednesday are expected to signal their support for at least four more interest rate increases in 2022, in addition to the March move. Another three or four increases are set to be pencilled in for 2023, bringing the fed funds rate closer to a more “neutral” setting that neither boosts nor constrains growth.The so-called “dot plot” of individual interest rate projections is also set to show several Fed officials expecting rates to eventually rise above a neutral level. Fed chair Jay Powell recently estimated the neutral rate to be between 2 and 2.5 per cent.Underscoring the enormity of the shift in just a matter of months, officials were evenly split on the need for an interest rate increase as recently as last September.The Fed’s statement and its latest economic projections will be published at 2pm Eastern Time, followed by a press conference with Powell shortly after. The Fed’s embrace of a much more aggressive policy stance comes despite a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is broadly expected to dent growth and intensify price pressures. The European Central Bank also turned hawkish this month, scaling back its bond-buying plan as the war boosted inflation expectations. While the US central bank has in the past delayed making major policy decisions in periods of acute conflict to avoid exacerbating volatility at a turbulent time, surging inflation and an extremely strong labour market are likely to prompt the Fed to press ahead with plans to more substantively tighten monetary policy.Fed officials are also expected to significantly revise higher their forecasts for inflation, which is derived from the personal consumption expenditures price index. The median estimate for core inflation, which strips out volatile items such as food and energy, is set to rise above 3 per cent by the end of the year, up from 2.7 per cent last December. Next year’s estimates are also likely to increase. The core PCE index is at 5.2 per cent.Forecasts for US economic growth are also set to moderate from the 5.5 per cent pace projected in December, while the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 3.5 per cent.The Fed is also likely to shed light on its plans to reduce its enormous balance sheet, which more than doubled in size over the course of the pandemic to $9tn as the central bank hoovered up government bonds as part of its efforts to shore up the economy. The process is expected to start as early as May, with the Fed scaling back its holdings of Treasuries at an initial pace of $60bn a month and its stock of agency mortgage-backed securities by $40bn by ceasing to reinvest the proceeds of maturing securities. The pace is set to quicken over time. More

Interest rates in Brazil are forecast to rise higher than anticipated as officials seek to rein in sharply surging inflation that is being exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.Brazil’s central bank was already one of the world’s most hawkish, using a series of rate increases to lift its benchmark Selic interest rate from 2 per cent a year ago to 10.75 per cent last month. Economists expect the Selic to rise by a further 1 percentage point to 11.75 per cent on Wednesday, the highest level in five years. Now a survey by Valor, a business media group, of 91 economists’ projections released this week found that the median forecast for the Selic has risen to 12.75 per cent by the end of the year, as Russia’s war in Ukraine has triggered a surge in commodities prices, particularly in oil and agricultural products. This is an increase from the previous consensus of 12.25 per cent. “Inflation and interest rates are now expected to go higher and stay higher for longer,” said Armando Castelar, an economist at the Brazilian Institute of Economics.“The geopolitical crisis impacts Brazilian inflation because of commodities,” said Ariane Benedito, economist at CM Capital Markets. “Fifteen per cent of the IPCA, Brazil’s main inflation indicator, is directly impacted by the increase in international prices of agricultural and energy commodities.”Inflation in Brazil is running at about 10.5 per cent, fuelling discontent particularly among poorer citizens, who have borne the brunt of price increases. Consumer prices rose more than 1 per cent last month, above market expectations, and the issue ranks among the most important topics for voters in this year’s presidential election.“Inflation is across the board, but we have higher pressure especially on items such as food, gas and electricity — categories that weigh more on the working classes,” said Alessandra Ribeiro, economist at the Tendências consultancy. “This is the big issue.”Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s president, who trails in the polls ahead of the election in October, has attempted to tackle the issue by introducing measures including a bill to reduce taxes on diesel and jet fuel. He also said his government was studying measures to eliminate federal taxes on petrol, although critics warned that this was unlikely to help those Brazilians most affected by rising prices.“I don’t think this reduction in taxation will help Bolsonaro’s popularity [as] I don’t believe it will affect consumers. Most will become higher profit margins for the businessmen” in the fuel supply chain, said Gabriel Leal de Barros, chief economist at Ryo Asset.An opinion poll released this month by Ipespe, a research group, showed that Bolsonaro would lose a run-off race against the leftwing former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.Rising interest rates will add pressure on economic growth as companies and consumers eschew big purchases.“The rises last year will impact growth this year. But the impact of the next rises in interest rates will be felt mostly next year,” said Castelar.Even before the Ukraine crisis, most economists forecast that Brazil’s economy would grow by less than 1 per cent this year, while a handful of analysts had predicted a recession. More

Inside every car sits almost three miles of electric cabling. The snaking wires carry instructions, from steering the wheels to opening the boot.This jumble of motoring spaghetti is held together by the harness, a low-cost part that, until the invasion of Ukraine, vehicle manufacturers almost took for granted.Both BMW and Volkswagen have both been forced to idle plants across Europe after Russia’s invasion forced Ukrainian wiring plants to shut.Now the country’s fledgling auto industry, which boasts close to 40 parts factories, is at risk, as carmakers race to relocate or duplicate the bespoke equipment needed to make harnesses.The country accounts for about a fifth of Europe’s supply of harnesses, which also come from other parts of eastern Europe as well as north Africa, according to estimates from AutoAnalysis.“The problem with wire harnesses is that they are fundamental,” said Alexandre Marian, a managing director at consultancy AlixPartners in Paris. “You cannot start assembling even an incomplete car without wire harnesses.”Unlike other parts that can be easily made elsewhere, harnesses are bespoke. Each car model has its own individual system, honed to the millimetre, so manufacturers can squeeze wires around the vehicle.Herbert Diess, VW chief executive, said: “In our case, as we are positioned in premium or close to premium, most of the wiring harnesses we put in the cars are car specific. So, it’s a one-to-one relation.”

But shifting production is a logistical headache.“They are a mix of different cables, you cannot put all 100 pieces together in a box and send it over,” explained one person familiar with the process. “They are a big transportation problem.”VW’s Diess said: “Currently, we are . . . trying to get the most out of the wiring harness production in the Ukraine, but in parallel, right from the start of the conflict, we started to work on alternatives, which are on the way.”Those alternatives include shifting equipment, which is difficult with unreliable border crossings, or replicating it from scratch, which is expensive and takes time.Leoni, which has two sites in the country as well as plants in Serbia, Romania and north Africa, said it was “working nearly around the clock to constantly analyse and evaluate the dynamic developments on site”.“We are currently examining all options to compensate for the production interruptions,” the company said.Dominic Tribe, a supply chain expert at consultants Vendigital, said: “There is a fair amount of skilled manual work in making harnesses. It’s complicated with sometimes kilometres of cables and hundreds of connectors that might need to be manually wrapped and tested.”New equipment needed to build harnesses runs from £100,000 to about £2mn, he said, and takes between three and six months to build, according to industry estimates. Some Mini customers have been told to expect further delays of three months, while new factories are found to make the parts.“We are working with our suppliers affected by the Ukraine crisis to find solutions together, and to support them in implementing these solutions, whether that’s maintaining production in Ukraine or in alternative locations,” said BMW, which closed two German plants and the Mini facility in the UK.Even though both BMW and VW have restarted plants, they will be unable to make models whose harnesses remain stranded in Ukraine.Some suppliers in Ukraine have begun restarting operations, according to car manufacturers, suppliers and people familiar with the situation.On Tuesday, VW said nine out of its 11 suppliers in the country were running, albeit at reduced capacity. “We are able to produce in most of our plants, but [at] a reduced rate of capacity,” said Diess.A big problem is shipping finished goods across the Polish and Ukrainian border to the waiting car plants.There is a severe shortage of truck drivers, who are largely male and hit by the conscription laws that prohibit them from leaving the country.Some plants have turned to former retirees, who are over the conscription age limit, in order to move products, according to an employee at one of the Ukraine groups.

Many of the trucking companies outside the country are reluctant to send vehicles across the border for fear they will not return, according to two people briefed on the situation.Even once trucks and drivers are located, the border crossings have been completely overwhelmed by the refugees and are all-but closed to traditional business freight.“If you send a truck, you can’t say whether it will be in Poland in three hours or three days or will be sent back,” said one person. “We have to check day by day, is it possible to send one truck today, or two trucks.”“Effectively, at this point, the country is not open for any type of normal commercial activity,” said Joseph Massaro, chief financial officer of Aptiv, a car parts supplier.The company, which has two plants in western Ukraine, has begun moving parts out of the country into existing Aptiv facilities in Poland, Romania and Serbia. The relocation, which is being aided by VW, also includes the workers and their families, people familiar with the operation said.However, at the factories in Ukraine, workers have been largely unaffected by the violence, according to several of the suppliers operating in the country.Because assembling harnesses requires extreme dexterity, most employees in the factory tend to be women, who are not covered by Ukraine’s conscription laws for men between 18 and 60.One supplier estimated that three-quarters of its workers are women, many of whom have been offering to come to work if it is safe.“It’s amazing how the people are motivated and willing to support the company,” said a manager at one of the supply groups.But for Ukraine, the risk is that should carmakers shift production westward, the harness industry in the country may suffer terminal decline, several executives said privately.Massaro at Aptiv added: “Obviously, long term, we’ll have to assess if and when it makes sense to go back to Ukraine.”  More

The writer is founding partner of Gavekal Dragonomics, a China-focused economic research firmAt the Winter Olympics in Beijing, China’s government unveiled two initiatives. One was the statement by presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin declaring that China and Russia have a friendship with “no limits”. The other was a trial of the digital yuan, or e-CNY, which was offered for use by both domestic and foreign athletes and spectators.Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the imposition of harsh financial sanctions by the US and its allies, it is reasonable to ask whether China’s digital currency paves the way for a new, dollar-free global monetary system that would enable countries to evade American sanctions.In the short run, the answer is clearly no. For one thing, while China has complained about the sanctions, it has largely abided by them. Its companies and banks are avoiding business with sanctioned Russian firms, for good reason. China’s economic relations with the US and its allies in Asia are far greater and deeper than those with Russia. In 2021, nearly half of China’s $3.3tn in exports went to the US, EU, UK and US treaty allies in Asia; only 2 per cent went to Russia. China’s technology industries still depend heavily on equipment and knowhow supplied by the US and its friends.For another, the e-CNY is not even close to ready for large-scale international use, and has a negligible place even in domestic payments. Chinese policymakers have been clear from the outset that their main goals for the digital yuan are domestic: improving payments efficiency, serving the unbanked and fighting corruption.From its first trial launch in April 2020 until the end of 2021, total e-CNY transactions in China were Rmb87.5bn ($13.5bn). This represented just 0.002 per cent of the $715tn of online payments in China during the same period. Finally, efforts to internationalise the conventional, non-digital renminbi over the past decade have stalled. The renminbi accounts for 2.5 per cent of global reserves. Russia, which tried to sanction-proof its economy by shifting its reserves out of dollars, holds just 13 per cent of those reserves in renminbi — less than the euro, gold or even the hated dollar.The picture in payments is similar. The share of China’s trade settled in renminbi has hovered at around 10-15 per cent since 2016, and the Chinese unit accounts for less than 3 per cent of foreign exchange transactions handled by the Swift messaging system.The failures of renminbi internationalisation reflect structural problems. The main obstacle is China’s tight capital controls, which it needs in order to keep monetary independence and ensure the stability of its heavily-leveraged domestic financial system.These controls, combined with the immaturity of China’s bond and money markets, mean that international investors have little incentive or ability to hold large renminbi balances. They rightly fear that such holdings cannot easily be liquidated at any time and in any amount. Until they have such confidence, the use of the renminbi for cross-border payments will remain limited.Another factor is the network effect — the tendency of people to use a service because everyone else uses it. The infrastructure and institutional arrangements making it convenient to pay in dollars will be hard to change. It is not easy to see how the e-CNY, by itself, could overcome these constraints. One way it might is by creating a vastly more efficient channel for international payments. But this will take a lot of technical effort, which has barely begun.Some argue that by starting early, China has a “first-mover advantage” in creating the digital currency norms of the future. More likely, network effects will overwhelm this edge. China has begun experiments on payments with Hong Kong, Thailand and the UAE. But seven major central banks, including the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, have joined with the Bank for International Settlements to set digital currency standards. Any effort by that group to build a digital payments network is sure to be more successful than a group of smaller central banks managing a system built around China’s partially convertible currency.In response to expert advice that the US and its allies pick up the pace on digital currencies, US president Joe Biden has issued an executive order mandating a study of a digital dollar. This is appropriate. But the goal should be to carefully build a modern payments system marrying efficiency and privacy, not to stave off an illusory threat from China to the dollar’s dominance. More

Price died on Monday after a lengthy illness, according to the emailed statement provided by Timothy Ladin, MFP’s general counsel.”He was a legendary investor, philanthropist, and a great mentor to us all,” Ladin said.A 1996 article in Fortune described Price as “Wall Street’s foremost value investor,” crediting him with driving the merger of Chase Manhattan and Chemical Bank. More

China is concerned it could be hit by western sanctions imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and will retaliate if necessary, the Chinese foreign minister has said. “China is not a party to the crisis, nor does it want sanctions to affect China,” Wang Yi told his Spanish counterpart, José Manuel Albares, in remarks published by the Chinese foreign ministry on Tuesday. “China has a right to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests,” he added.The comments come a day after Jake Sullivan, US national security adviser, met Yang Jiechi, China’s top foreign policy official, in Rome for what one US official described as an “intense” seven-hour exchange that included discussion of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Reports that China is prepared to help Russia are beginning to unsettle investors. The Hang Seng index yesterday fell by almost 6 per cent to its lowest closing level since 2016.Falls in Chinese stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen are being exacerbated by a serious outbreak of Covid-19 and subsequent lockdowns in the affected cities and regions.More on UkraineLatest developments: The leaders of three EU countries arrived in Kyiv late on Tuesday even as Russian shelling continued on residential neighbourhoods.Explainer: Here’s what to expect as Russia warns of historic debt default.Sanctions: EU and UK hit Roman Abramovich and other oligarchs with fresh sanctions as the US took action against 11 of Russia’s military leaders. Russia in response has sanctioned the US president and secretary of state. Social media: Russia’s Instagram influencers are bidding a hasty farewell after the Kremlin banned the app. Chechnya’s “wild card” warlord-leader Ramzan Kadyrov announced via Telegram that he has joined the Russian campaign.Russian opposition: A Moscow court fined a state television editor for condemning Russia’s war in Ukraine after she crashed a live newscast in protest.Opinion: China risks “losing the west” over Ukraine. Beijing should redouble efforts to press Russia for a ceasefire, argues our editorial board. Follow our live blog and updated maps for the latest on the conflict.Five more stories in the news1. Russia signals progress on the Iran nuclear deal Russia said it had received guarantees from the US that sanctions imposed on Moscow would not affect its trade with Iran, potentially removing a stumbling block that had complicated attempts to revive Tehran’s 2015 nuclear accord with global powers.2. Investors wary of Taiwan-China conflict International investors are seeking to hedge against the possibility of military conflict between China and Taiwan, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drives a reassessment of risk in one of the world’s most dangerous geopolitical flashpoints.3. Leissner’s 1MDB trial testimony shines light on fraud Testimony from Tim Leissner, former Goldman Sachs partner, in the long-awaited trial of ex-Goldman banker Roger Ng has provided a unique window into one of the key players in an embezzlement scheme that US officials have labelled “kleptocracy at its worst”. 4. British publishers censor books to appease China Two British publishers, Octopus Books and Quarto, have censored books intended for western readers to ensure they can be printed cheaply in China, in the latest instance of companies yielding to Beijing’s restrictions on free speech.5. Raskin withdraws nomination for top Fed watchdog role Sarah Bloom Raskin, Joe Biden’s pick to lead financial regulation at the Federal Reserve, withdrew her nomination after the centrist Democrat Joe Manchin joined Republicans in opposing her confirmation. Raskin blamed “relentless attacks by special interests” for her decision.Coronavirus digest Shanghai teeters on the edge of a citywide lockdown despite reporting only about 150 new cases yesterday.Benchmark oil prices fell below $100 a barrel for the first time since March 1 on expectations that lockdowns could slow petroleum demand in China, the world’s largest importer of crude.Informa said it remained confident about the future of in-person events, as the world’s largest exhibitions company returned to profit and shrugged off further Covid-related lockdowns in China.The day aheadNato defence meeting Ministers are set to gather in Brussels to discuss what further steps to take in relation to the Ukraine crisis. Sign up for Valentina Pop’s Europe Express newsletter for the latest from the continent. Japan January industrial production figures Final year-on-year factory output measures for January are set to be released today. Preliminary results released last month showed Japan’s industrial production fell at its fastest pace in a year in January.Federal Reserve interest rate decision The US central bank is set to raise interest rates for the first time since 2018, but faces a dilemma over how aggressively to tighten monetary policy as war in Ukraine threatens to dent growth and worsen the highest inflation in 40 years.What else we’re readingWhat Japanese car auctions mean for the global economy Japan’s used car exports should be seen as the thermometer of the world economy, said Sanshiro Fukao, a senior research fellow at the Itochu Research Institute. Since late February, the abrupt slowdown of shipments to Russia has caused everyone to rip up the old calculations. Will ‘open-source’ vaccines narrow the inequality gap? Spearheaded by the World Health Organization a new scheme to create mRNA vaccines aims to erase the unfair distribution of jabs during the pandemic. The unlikely setting for this radical overhaul: a series of nondescript warehouses on a Cape Town industrial estate.Budget to beat the rising cost of living The FT’s moneymaking expert Claer Barrett is back with a new series of Money Clinic. This week she comes up with tips to make your budget stretch further as pretty much everything we buy goes up in price. The Soviet pipeline that keeps Europe hooked on Moscow’s oil Europe relies on Russia for 30 per cent of its oil. While Most of the oil and associated petroleum products come by sea, the biggest single flow of Russian crude into Europe — almost 1mn barrels a day — comes via the 5,000km Druzhba (Friendship) pipeline.HikingLooking for hikes in Hong Kong? Step back in time on these four historical trails that take in overgrown wartime ruins, incredible feats of Victorian engineering and an ancient stone circle.

The Tai Tam Tuk Dam — one of a group of four reservoirs built in the late 19th to early 20th century © Getty Images/iStockphoto More

“Despite her readiness — and despite having been confirmed by the Senate with broad, bipartisan support twice in the past — Sarah was subject to baseless attacks from industry and conservative interest groups,” Biden said in a statement. Raskin had become the most contentious of Biden’s five nominees to the central bank’s Board of Governors, generating strong opposition from the outset from Republicans who said she would use the vice chair of supervision post to steer the Fed toward oversight policies that would penalize banks who lend to fossil fuel companies.Raskin had been favored by progressive Democrats, such as Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, who had pushed Biden to install someone who would pursue stiffer banking oversight after regulatory rollbacks under the previous supervision czar, Randal Quarles.Her withdrawal clears the way for the Senate to act on the four remaining nominees, which include Jerome Powell for a second term as the central bank’s chair. Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee, which reviews Fed appointments, had blocked progress on the nominations by refusing to attend voting sessions over their objections to Raskin. The banking committee’s top Republican, Pat Toomey, said on Tuesday he and his colleagues were now ready to vote.Republicans may still try to block at least a couple of Biden’s other picks, including Lael Brainard, an existing Fed governor, to be the central bank’s vice chair, and Michigan State University’s Lisa Cook, who would be the Fed Board’s first Black female member. Toomey has said he opposes both.Powell and the last nominee, Davidson College’s Philip Jefferson, have bipartisan support.In a 50-50 Senate that Democrats control only by virtue of Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking position, nominees need the backing of every member of Biden’s party to gain confirmation if Republicans are united in opposition, as they appeared to be in Raskin’s case.When Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a conservative Democrat from a Republican-leaning state that is among the country’s biggest coal producers, announced his opposition to Raskin on Monday – followed by “Nos” from moderate Republicans – her nomination was effectively over.”Their point of contention was my frank public discussion of climate change and the economic costs associated with it,” Raskin said in her resignation letter. It is “not a novel or radical position,” she wrote, to add climate change to the list of risks the Fed should consider to ensure financial and economic stability. The question for the Biden administration now is whether to pivot toward a moderate for the job or even leave the post open.The New Yorker magazine first reported that Raskin had withdrawn her nomination. More