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    UK year-ahead inflation expectations rise to highest since 2008

    The median inflation expectation for 12 months’ time rose to 4.3% in February’s survey from 3.2% in November, its highest since August 2008. Expectations for two- and five years’ time were the highest since 2013 and 2020 at 3.2% and 3.3%.BoE policymakers closely watch inflation expectations as they view them as a way that temporarily high inflation can become persistent through its effect on companies’ pricing plans or employees’ wage demands, even after the initial drivers of higher prices have faded.However a one-off question asked in February’s survey showed workers expected their pay to rise by just 2.1% over the next 12 months, far below the rate of inflation.British consumer price inflation hit its highest in nearly 30 years in January at 5.5% due to higher energy prices and post-pandemic bottlenecks in supply chains. Many economists think it could exceed 8% this year and reach its highest since the early 1980s due to the further upward impact on oil and gas prices from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Other measures of inflation expectations have moved up too. Citi’s monthly survey with polling company YouGov showed the public’s expectations for inflation in five to 10 years’ time rose to 4.1% last month, the joint highest since the series began in 2005, while financial markets price in the highest inflation in more than a decade.The BoE survey took place in two waves of around 2,200 people around Feb. 4-7 and Feb. 18-21. It was conducted by polling company Ipsos, which has replaced Kantar as the survey provider. More

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    U.S. Senate passes $1.5 trillion gov't funding bill with Ukraine aid

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. Senate on Thursday approved legislation providing $1.5 trillion to fund the federal government through Sept. 30 and to allocate $13.6 billion to aid Ukraine.The 2,700-page bill passed in a bipartisan 68-31 vote, one day after the House of Representatives approved the package.President Joe Biden is expected to sign the bill into law, averting agency shutdowns ahead of the midnight Friday deadline when existing U.S. government funds expire.”We’re keeping our promises to support Ukraine as they fight for their lives against the evil Vladimir Putin,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said, referring to Russia’s president who has orchestrated a massive attack against its neighbor.The aid for Ukraine is designed to finance ammunition and other military supplies, as well as humanitarian support.The legislation’s passage follows months of negotiations over the federal government’s funding and therefore policy priorities. It also comes as lawmakers jostle to show support of Ukraine in its battle against Russian forces, with Democrats and Republicans saying the Biden administration must do more to help Kyiv.On Wednesday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told reporters that this Ukraine aid package likely would be followed by additional measures to help Kyiv battle Russia and rebuild from the destruction brought by Moscow’s attacks.On Thursday, ahead of the vote, Republican senators called for the Biden administration to send Ukraine the fighter jets the country’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had requested. The Biden administration has argued that providing combat aircraft, even if they were being supplied by Poland, would dangerously escalate the conflict.The House also approved a bill that banned imports of Russian oil and called for reviewing Russia’s participation in some international trade programs, including the World Trade Organization. That measure’s fate in the Senate was unclear. Biden is expected to call on Friday for an end of normal trade relations with Russia.Besides providing money for ammunition and other military supplies and humanitarian aid for Ukrainians, the legislation funds regular U.S. military programs and an array of non-defense operations through Sept. 30, including money for infrastructure projects authorized by an earlier bipartisan package.Senator Richard Shelby, the senior Republican on the Senate Appropriations Committee, applauded the spending bill for increasing defense spending by nearly $42 billion over last year to total $782 billion.Without passage of this legislation by midnight Friday, federal agencies would have had to begin laying off workers and suspending government programs deemed non-essential.The Senate also passed a stop-gap bill extending existing federal funding through Tuesday so that congressional clerks have the time they need to process the sprawling “omnibus” legislation — a chore that could go beyond Friday’s midnight deadline. That ensures no interruption in government services before Biden receives the omnibus bill from Congress for signing into law. More

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    What targets are left for US sanctions in Russia?

    As US president Joe Biden announced his decision to impose a ban on Russian energy imports this week, he reflected on the damage already done to the Russian economy by sanctions since the start of the Ukraine invasion.“It has caused the Russian economy to, quite frankly, crater,” he said. “One rouble is now worth less than one American penny.”By moving to impose sanctions on large Russian banks, key individuals and the central bank, the Biden administration has done more to rapidly inflict economic pain on a large economy and its leaders than any of its recent predecessors.Nevertheless, it has not exhausted all options for punishing Moscow economically, suggesting more might come if Russian president Vladimir Putin further escalates the conflict. Biden officials have consistently said they are not ruling anything out when it comes to the response to Russia’s war on Ukraine.Though any additional measures are likely to result in more negative spillover effects on the US economy — and could trigger more tensions with some allies in Europe — that does not mean they are off the table.“The west needs to keep developing escalatory options for sanctions to keep pace with Putin’s increasing violence,” wrote Brian O’Toole and Daniel Fried of the Atlantic Council, a Washington think-tank, this week. “There is still room for more targeting before these sanctions reach a level comparable to those against Iran or North Korea.”FinanceShortly after Russia’s invasion, the US imposed hefty sanctions on VTB and Sberbank, two of the most powerful banks in the country, taking direct aim at the motors of the country’s financial system. In a surprisingly bold move, it also sanctioned Russia’s central bank to stop it from accessing foreign reserves. But it didn’t go quite as far in other respects.State-owned Gazprombank and Russian Agricultural Bank were spared the most aggressive sanctions, as was privately held Alfa-Bank — so these are still potentially vulnerable to new measures from Washington. Even though Moscow’s stock exchange has now been closed for days, the US has not sanctioned it directly — a step that would deal another big blow to investments in Russia’s capital markets.OligarchsIn the past three weeks, the US has slapped sanctions on key Russian officials such as foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, defence minister Sergei Shoigu, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov and Putin himself.

    It has also targeted a few oligarchs, from Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, to billionaire financier Alisher Usmanov. The US has also designated family members of some members of Russia’s elite for sanctions.But America has not sanctioned as many oligarchs as the EU has at this stage, so it has plenty of space to increase its efforts to target Russian business executives and their relatives. It could also expand the existing sanctions on Russian oligarchs to include more of their businesses: in the case of Usmanov, some entities linked to him were not part of the first wave of sanctions.TradeLeading Democratic and Republican lawmakers have been pushing the White House to revoke the US’s normal trading relationship with Russia, which would lead to tariff increases on all Russian imports to the US. Such a move would align Russia with North Korea and Cuba, the only two countries who do not currently enjoy a normal trade status with the US.According to analysis by Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute, the removal of the normal trade relationship status would boost the average US tariff on Russian goods from around 3 per cent to around 32 per cent across all goods.

    However, the US only imports a relatively small volume of goods from Russia — around $16.9bn in 2020, according to US government data. Apart from oil, the largest imports from Russia include precious metals, fish and fertiliser.Some lawmakers, including the Democratic chair of the powerful Senate finance committee, Ron Wyden, are pushing for the administration to raise tariffs on Russian imports even further — while others want to strip it of World Trade Organization membership — steps that would move the US close to a sweeping embargo on all things Russian.A potential problem with this strategy is that it could deprive the US of imports from Russia that are less fungible than oil, including critical minerals.EnergyThere was plenty of bluster in Biden’s announcement this week that he would ban Russian oil from entering the US, while stopping Americans from investing in Russia’s energy sector — part of a comprehensive effort to stop financing Putin’s military offensive. But there is more the US could do to hurt Russian oil and gas.One option would be to impose the harshest sanctions directly on large global Russian energy companies such as Rosneft, which would make it far more difficult for them to do business anywhere in the world. Another step would to be to revoke the carve-out for energy payments the US introduced when it sanctioned the Russian central bank.More broadly, given EU resistance on this front and its own concern about energy price spikes, the US has been reluctant to impose a full regime of secondary sanctions on Russian energy of the kind to which Iran was subjected, which affected its business with countries all around the world. More

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    Hawks in control at ECB as inflation fears dictate policy shift

    The balance of power at the European Central Bank has shifted decisively in favour of hawkish officials determined to tackle the risk of inflation spiralling upwards, despite fears that the war in Ukraine could drag Europe into recession.Several ECB governing council members argued at Thursday’s meeting that it should wait before speeding up the withdrawal of its bond-buying stimulus due to uncertainty over the economic fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But they were outnumbered by more hawkish voices.“The argument about inflation dominated and prevailed over anything else, including the war, the uncertainty and the fears about growth,” said one person involved in the meeting. “The risks of inflation are now seen as greater than other concerns by a majority of the council,” the person said, after the ECB announced it planned to stop net bond purchases in the third quarter in response to the recent surge in prices of energy and many other goods.

    Consumer prices in the eurozone have risen faster than the ECB expected for several months, hitting a record annual pace of 5.8 per cent in February. On Thursday, the ECB raised its forecast for inflation this year from 3.2 per cent to 5.1 per cent, citing the “exceptional energy price shocks” stemming from the war in Ukraine.A second person involved in Thursday’s meeting said: “It is getting clearer and clearer to more of my colleagues that the transitory story on inflation is a bankrupt story.” “It is not just oil and energy prices that are rising fast, you have food, non-energy industrial goods and services all accelerating at more than 2 per cent,” said the second person. “We have to do something — we cannot be the only central bank not reacting.”The US Federal Reserve is expected to start a series of interest rate rises at its meeting next week, while the Bank of England raised interest rates at its last two meetings and the central banks of Canada, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, Chile and Poland have also raised rates.A third person briefed on the ECB’s meeting said the more hawkish voices calling for more immediate action on inflation outnumbered those advocating patience by 15 to 10.A key factor shifting the ECB’s debate in a more hawkish direction was a chart given to governing council members showing market inflation expectations had risen by a record amount since the ECB’s last policy meeting, as measured by inflation swaps, according to two people involved.Christine Lagarde, ECB president, said at a press conference after Thursday’s meeting “there were different views around the table — in all directions” but in the end everyone decided to “rally” behind the decision.

    Eurozone government bond markets sold off on Thursday after the ECB presented plans for a quicker reduction in its asset purchase plans this year, under which it would reduce bond purchases to €40bn in April, €30bn in May and €20bn in June. Its earlier plan had been to reduce net purchases more slowly from €40bn a month in April to €20bn a month from October.It could completely stop adding to its existing €4.8tn bond portfolio in the third quarter “if the incoming data support the expectation that the medium-term inflation outlook will not weaken even after the end of our net asset purchases”, it added.Only a major escalation of the war in Ukraine, cutting off the supply of Russian energy to Europe and causing significant disruption to financial markets, would deter the ECB from stopping net asset purchases as planned, the two people involved in the meeting said.The ECB published three sets of forecasts including an adverse and a severe scenario as well as its baseline scenario. The downside scenarios modelled the likely impact of cuts to Russian energy supplies to Europe, increased geopolitical tensions and financial market disruption. In the severe scenario it predicted eurozone growth would be only 2.3 per cent this year, down from 3.7 per cent in its already-lowered baseline scenario, while inflation would soar to 7.1 per cent, compared to a baseline projection of 5.1 per cent.“We discussed the possibility of a stagflationary shock, not actual stagflation, as we are not talking about negative annual growth,” said the second person involved in the meeting. “But the threat of inflation was seen as more immediate and real.” More

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    Cash Isas remain popular despite the drain of inflation

    The impact of soaring inflation and poor rates of interest will put to the test the predominance of cash Isas, the most popular variant of the tax-efficient savings vehicle. Inflation is running at an annual 5.5 per cent in the latest figures from January and the Bank of England expects it to climb to 7.25 per cent by April. High inflation eats away at the purchasing power of cash savings, eroding even more rapidly when banks and building societies offer paltry rates of interest. Charles Incledon, client director at financial planners Bowmore Wealth Group, adds: “At the moment keeping your money in a cash Isa means it is losing value in real terms at the fastest rate in almost 30 years.”With inflation at 7.25 per cent, a cash balance of £20,000 earning interest at 0.01 per cent will halve in real terms after 10 years. The total balance will rise to £20,020 over that period, but the real value after the effect of inflation will be £9,942.Yet when it comes to Isas, cash remain the most popular flavour, accounting for two-thirds (65 per cent) of money subscribed to all Isas in 2019-20 versus 32 per cent for stocks and shares Isas. The split has remained broadly constant over the past decade. Nonetheless, for the first time in the 23 years since their introduction, there has been a substantial drop in the total accumulated holdings of cash Isas, from £295bn in January 2021 to £289bn in January this year, according to Bank of England data.Part of that may be explained by people spending down savings in the pandemic, says Anna Bowes, co-founder of Savings Champion, a savings rate monitoring website. But she adds that consumers and banks had already begun to lose interest in the cash Isa market from 2016, when the government introduced a personal savings allowance that blunted the tax-free advantages of the cash Isa. Basic-rate taxpayers pay no tax on the first £1,000 of interest earned on savings; higher-rate taxpayers on the first £500. Furthermore, interest rates on non-Isa bonds now eclipse those on the equivalent cash Isas. “If you’re a basic-rate taxpayer and you’re using your personal allowance you can still earn more after tax in a bond than in the equivalent cash Isa,” says Bowes. The “best buy” rate for a one-year cash Isa bond (with a minimum investment of £500) is offered by Shawbrook Bank at 1.35 per cent, according to finance website Moneyfacts. The rate on the top non-Isa equivalent bond is 1.71 per cent, for a bond from Al Rayan Bank with an 18-month term and a minimum investment of £5,000.

    Best buy cash Isas vs non IsasProviderRateMin investmentCash Isas – fixed1 year bondShawbrook Bank1.35%£1,0002 year bondVirgin Money1.46%£17 year bondUnited Trust Bank1.90%£15,000Cash Isas – variableMarcus by Goldman Sachs0.70%£1Non Isas – fixed1 yearAl Rayan Bank1.71%£5,0002 yearAl Rayan Bank1.86%£5,0007 yearsPCF Bank2.25%£1,000Easy access without bonusVirgin Money1%£1Easy access with bonusCynergy Bank0.80%£1Source: Moneyfacts

    Over the past 12 months, the average stocks and shares Isa fund produced a return of 6.92 per cent, Moneyfacts says, compared with an average rate of 0.51 per cent for cash Isas. But savers may still be reluctant to relinquish the safety of cash as markets remain highly volatile. Rachel Springall, finance expert at Moneyfacts, says: “As inflation continues to soar and the Bank of England raises interest rates, it will be interesting to see how savers respond and where they place their cash. It’s clear to see how cash Isas are being eroded by rising inflation, but consumers may not feel confident enough to invest in the stock market quite yet.” Some may need to keep a large cash sum on hand at short notice, such as those drawing down a pension who would prefer to use cash than liquidate investments at an unfavourable moment. But shopping around is still worth it in spite of low rates. “Though there have been two base rate rises since December, Halifax, Lloyds, Santander and NatWest all still paying 0.01 per cent on their easy access cash Isas,” says Bowes.“If you’re going to have a cash Isa you mustn’t leave it with your high street provider . . . They are paying you as little as they can.” More

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    Investing in Isas at a time of turmoil

    Poppy Lyons is one of thousands of teenagers in the UK to have just turned 18 and received the proceeds of her Child Trust Fund. Her parents opted for a stocks and shares account and topped it up regularly, building it into an impressive £29,000 nest egg. Living with her parents in Ramsey, Cambridgeshire, she has offers to study biomedical sciences at Cardiff and Plymouth universities. “I received the money when I turned 18 knowing nothing about investing, but I want to make it work to eventually go towards a deposit on a property and provide some security in the future,” she says.So what should she do now? The money currently sits in cash, losing purchasing power as the UK’s consumer prices index hit an annual 5.5 per cent in January. She wants to tuck it away where it can grow, but her long-term homebuying aspirations mean she might need it within the next 10 years or so. Isas have expanded to offer savers and investors a plethora of tax-friendly choices since 1999, when stocks and shares Isas and cash Isas were introduced. Junior Isas arrived in 2011 to replace Child Trust Funds and currently allow investment of up to £9,000 a year for children and grandchildren. Innovative Finance Isas came along in 2016 to encourage peer-to-peer lending, and Lifetime Isas arrived a year later, offering generous government top-ups.The question of where to put Isa money — up to an annual £20,000 per adult — is not just for those, like Lyons, who are opening one for the first time. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has jangled nerves on global stock markets that were already frayed by fears of high inflation and by worries about the high valuations of tech stocks.First-time Isa: Poppy Lyons at home in Cambridgeshire © Si Barber/FT“There will likely be a bit more inflation and a bit less growth as a consequence,” says Rob Morgan, chief analyst at Charles Stanley. For UK households, the tax burden is set to rise as the government looks to shore up the public finances in the wake of the pandemic. As the deadline for investing in the 2021-22 tax year approaches, FT Money looks at some of the key choices facing those looking to make the most of their tax-efficient Isa options at a time of market uncertainty. Where to investInvestors have experienced a wild ride over the past two years, since the Covid-19 pandemic initially caused a huge sell-off in stock markets. The FTSE 100 index, for instance, plummeted 30 per cent in the early weeks of the pandemic before recovering its losses by early February this year. Since then, however, fears over Ukraine have sparked more selling, with a 7 per cent drop in the index since February 10. In the short term, there is no guaranteed way for existing Isa holders and first-time investors like Lyons to protect their investments, says Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at AJ Bell. “You have to play a long game, and over the next 10 years, I think the best chance of beating inflation is still the stock market.” He suggests moving £20,000 into a stocks and shares Isa in the current tax year — the maximum amount adults can pay in one year — and the remainder in the new tax year from April 6. History suggests staying invested and ignoring stock market volatility remains the best course of action, says Morgan. “The stock market has a 10 per cent-plus sell-off about every 1.5 years, so the volatility we are seeing is fairly normal,” he says. “It’s worth noting that throughout stock market history the biggest rises often come very quickly after the biggest falls, so there is usually no merit in trying to time the market.”The question for novice Isa subscribers is where to place their money. Some experts suggest a global equity tracker fund is the best way to get core equity exposure. “The simpler the strategy the better: a single fund is better than several,” says Robin Powell, co-author of Invest Your Way to Financial Freedom.However, AJ Bell’s Khalaf points out that over two-thirds of a global equity tracker will be invested in the US “which feels like quite a lot of risk to be invested in one country”. He suggests looking also at investing in a UK or European index tracker such as iShares Core MSCI Europe UCITS ETF.He offers another tip: consider dripping the money into the markets over the course of six months. While the magic of compounding means investing earlier maximises returns, the short-term outlook for the stock market is “very uncertain” and the impact of paying in a lump sum before a steep market sell off can be “pretty nasty”.For equities with the best chance of beating inflation, Morgan suggests investors look for companies with “pricing power”, which can pass on cost increases to customers, such as luxury goods makers. “Liontrust Special Situations is one fund that prioritises competitive advantages and pricing power in its selection process,” he says. It’s also worth considering areas that will benefit from higher inflation. Banks are a potential beneficiary of higher interest rates as they can earn more on their lending. Inflation caused by rising commodity prices might also be countered in a portfolio via some exposure to mining and energy companies.However, investors should remember that some inflation expectations have already been baked into markets. Future share price movements will be determined by how reality reflects these assumptions. Paul Derrien, investment director at Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management, thinks there is now value in so-called “growth” stocks — those expected to outpace the market average — which have fallen out of favour amid fears of higher interest rates. He says “sectors such as technology and healthcare have suffered large falls which is creating good long-term opportunities”. Khalaf suggests investing in a broad tracker fund as the core of your portfolio and then adding tilts of what you think will do well on top of that. Research by Bowmore Wealth Group found that the number of millennial and Gen Z taxpayers declaring annual income over £150,000 in the UK has risen by 28 per cent over the past year to 50,000 individuals. Even if you don’t have thousands of pounds to put into your Isa, the sooner you start investing the better, to reap the benefits of compounding. “The power of tax-free compounding is a marvel to behold. If markets have a wobble and you have spare cash, that can be a great time to top up with whatever you can afford,” says Henry Cobbe, head of research at Elston Consulting. Lifetime Isa?Younger investors also face another choice: whether to open a Lifetime Isa. On the face of it, it seems a no-brainer, as they can put up to £4,000 into a Lisa every year and receive a 25 per cent top-up from the government. The money can be used towards a deposit for a first home, or accessed when they reach the age of 60. But Lifetime Isa holders wanting to use the funds to buy a home face other conditions. It may not be used to buy a property worth more than £450,000 — a limit that has not increased since it was introduced in April 2017. Since then, the average UK house price has risen by 24 per cent, according to the Halifax House Price Index, to £278,123, rising in London to £530,469. If holders do not meet the conditions — and decide to take out the money before the age of 60 — they pay a 25 per cent penalty to lay their hands on it. The charge takes back the government subsidy and a proportion of the individual’s savings too. For example, if £1,000 is saved, it receives a £250 top up. If £1,250 is then withdrawn, the 25 per cent charge would cost £312.50 — resulting in a 6.25 per cent loss. Yet for many buying a home or saving for retirement, the Lifetime Isa can still make sense. “It is a trade off between accessibility and tax efficiency,” says Svenja Keller, financial coach and founder of SK Inspire. “In many cases, having a bit of both is a good option to get the best of both worlds.”Isa or pension? While selecting the kind of Isa to invest in is one choice that savers make, a bigger decision for many people is between putting money into any Isa or contributing to a pension scheme. Pensions and Isas are the “two key pillars of longer term, tax efficient savings” in the UK, says Jason Hollands, managing director at Bestinvest. Finding the most tax-efficient option is becoming increasingly important as the UK faces tax rises. From April 6, national insurance is due to increase by 1.25 percentage points, lifting the main rate for employees to 13.25 per cent. Dividend taxes are set to rise by the same amount, with new rates of 8.75 per cent for basic-rate dividend taxpayers, 33.75 per cent for those in the higher rate and 39.35 per cent for additional rate taxpayers. Isas allow taxed money to grow and be withdrawn tax free. Pensions give you income tax relief on any money paid in at your marginal rate, but you cannot access the money until you are at least 55 (rising to 57 in 2028) and you will pay income tax on money withdrawn from your pension at your marginal tax rate. Which one should you prioritise? Hollands says “a widespread regret among older workers is not having started contributing to a private pension earlier”. If you don’t need access to your money, pensions are the more generous vehicle, particularly if you are a member of a workplace pension scheme receiving employer contributions, or if you are a higher or additional rate taxpayer. While not an issue for most people, there are restrictions on how much those on a high income can pay into a pension. The annual pension allowance is £40,000 per year, but this allowance tapers down by £1 for every £2 your income goes over £240,000, with the minimum reduced annual allowance currently £4,000 for anyone with an income of £312,000 or higher. If you have a spouse or civil partner and they haven’t maxed out their allowances, you can also contribute to their pension and Isa, notes Helen Morrissey, senior pensions and retirement analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. You can pay up to £40,000 a year or up to 100 per cent of their earnings (whichever is lower) into their pension, and if they aren’t working then you can contribute up to £2,880 per year and they will get tax relief topping it up to £3,600.If you are in retirement, it might make sense to draw an income out of your Isa savings before turning to your pension. You will not have to pay income tax on Isa money withdrawn, and your pension will not form part of your inheritance tax estate when you die.For those saving for children, Junior Isas allow you to pay in up to £9,000 per year. But note that as soon as the child reaches 18 — like Poppy Lyons — control of the money goes to them. If you don’t want them to have access to the money at 18, you could consider paying into a Junior Sipp or setting up a trust. These are uncertain times for markets, but we do know that taxes will rise, inflation will erode the value of cash and equities have protected against rising prices over long periods. It makes sense to spend time considering how Isas, along with other tax-efficient vehicles like pensions, can help maximise the power of your savings. What happens to my Isa when I die? Ali Walsh, who runs a gluten-free cake making business in Bristol, was recently talking to her parents about what might happen to their Isas after their deaths. Mike Gregory, a former engineer, and Nancy Gregory, a former classics teacher, from Cambridgeshire, are both in their 80s. “If they leave their Isas in their wills to me or my siblings, or split between us, what happens to the Isas?” Walsh asks, unsure whether the money would stay protected within the tax-free wrapper or be subject to tax.Isa savers Mike and Nancy Gregory wonder what will happen to their investment after their deaths © Charlie Bibby/FTIsas are not exempt from inheritance tax and form part of the estate of the deceased, says Kay Ingram, chartered financial planner. “When a person dies their Isa goes into their estate and may continue to be invested tax free while probate is being sought, for a period of up to three years. It is known as a continuing Isa.”During this period, no money can be added to the Isa but the executor or administrator of the estate can make changes to the investments or cash it in.The surviving partner of an Isa owner may invest an amount equivalent to the value of their deceased spouse’s or civil partner’s Isa at the date of death or when the Isa is closed, whichever is higher, she adds. “This additional allowance can be used alongside their own annual allowance of £20,000 per tax year. It must be used within three years of the date of death.” More

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    How the Russian invasion added crew shortages to shipping turmoil

    Thousands of miles from Ukraine on a tugboat off Australia, chief mate Simon Prokopenko was trying to figure out how to get home and fight. “I cannot stand aside when this kind of thing is happening in my place,” he told the FT on a call in the weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine.For the global shipping industry, decisions like this risk becoming a big problem. Together, Ukraine and Russia account for 275,000 of the world’s 1.9mn commercial seafarers, jointly surpassing the Philippines, the biggest supplier of maritime workers.Ukraine on its own provides 5.4 per cent of the officers that head crews on the 74,000 plus ships trading internationally.Now, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urging people to stay at home and take up arms, and with mariners like Prokopenko on their way back to the country, shipping executives are warning of shortages of vital staff that keep world trade moving. Ukrainian national and chief mate Simon Prokopenko: ‘I cannot stand aside when this kind of thing is happening in my place’ © Simon Prokopenko“They are one of the top five [providers of] officers at sea today. Losing this source overnight will lead to strain on overall global crew supply,” said Carl Schou, chief executive of Wilhelmsen Ship Management, one of the world’s largest ship managers.Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is already causing significant supply chain problems. The biggest container shipping lines have suspended new bookings to Russia for fear of carrying sanctioned cargo, Europe’s ports are suffering from congestion caused by customs checks to comply with sanctions and the Black Sea has been classified as a high risk war zone by the Joint War Committee, an advisory body that guides insurers, hitting grain, iron ore and oil exports.Oleg Grygoriuk, chair of the Marine Transport Workers Trade Union of Ukraine, estimates that 55 to 60 per cent of Ukraine’s 80,000 or so seafarers are currently on ships and, of those at sea, roughly 20 per cent want to come back and fight.The union is advising them to stay on board for their own safety and to keep global logistics running.“If most of the Ukrainian seafarers leave then there’ll be no nationality able to take their positions and this will be catastrophic for world shipping,” he said.On a bulk carrier loaded with coal heading to Turkey, Captain Oleksiy Luchyno is one of those who plans to keep working to the end of his contract and then get his family out of Ukraine before deciding what to do next. However he dares not ask his six Ukrainian colleagues about their plans.“I try to avoid this question,” he said. Bjorn Hojgaard, head of Hong Kong-based Anglo-Eastern Univan Group, another large ship manager, said it has suspended crew changes for some of the 1,000 Ukrainians it employs partly because Ukrainian men aged 18-60 are now not allowed to leave the country.

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    For an industry that has struggled with border restrictions over the past two years — at one point in the pandemic 400,000 seafarers were stuck on land or sea — and more recently outbreaks of the Omicron coronavirus variant on ships, “This is the next problem the world is facing in the transport sea chain,” said Henrik Jensen, managing director at Danica Crewing Specialists, a Hamburg-based company with 1,200 Ukrainian workers.Russia’s increasing isolation is also causing problems. Executives say paying Russian nationals is much more difficult because the country’s access to Swift, the major international payment network, has been severely curtailed. At the same time, the cessation of many flights out of Russia has made it difficult to bring crew to where they are needed.

    The war has also thrown up questions about corporate responsibilities in an industry that often employs people on a contractual basis. “You have an obligation to get them home, so what does that look like?” said Stephen Cotton, general secretary of the International Transport Workers’ Federation. He said a further risk to global supply chains comes from dockworkers who may refuse to handle Russian cargo — sanctioned or not. The UK has banned Russia-owned, operated, controlled, registered or flagged ships from entering but still permits cargo from Russia to be unloaded.But the UK union Unite and North America’s International Longshore and Warehouse Union, which both represent dockworkers, have stated their intention to refuse to unload or load any Russian cargo. Manish Singh, chief executive of Ocean Technologies Group, a company that trains crews, said the challenge was not how to replace Ukrainians but sustaining global trade until these seafarers are in a position to work again. “These [expert] communities take decades to grow,” he said. People like Prokopenko, whose wife and three children had fled Ukraine for Poland, feel they have little choice but to exit the industry for now. “If we don’t do this, then there will be no home and there’s no point working at sea.” More