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    FirstFT: How the Ukraine war could influence China’s stance on Taiwan

    A note to readers: Due to a technical issue, we inadvertently sent an extra edition of FirstFT Asia last night. Apologies for the error.Good morning. US intelligence chiefs on Tuesday said they were monitoring how China was interpreting the war in Ukraine and said the swift western reaction would probably influence Beijing’s calculus over its goal of securing control of Taiwan.Avril Haines, the director of national intelligence, said China had noted the sanctions the US and its allies have imposed on Russia and understood the implications for how Washington might respond to an attack on Taiwan.“It is likely to reinforce China’s perspective on the seriousness with which we would approach an infringement on Taiwan and in the unity that they’ve seen between Europe and the US,” Haines told the House Intelligence Committee when asked if the western response to Russia’s invasion would make Beijing more reluctant to take military action. Bill Burns, director of the CIA, said he agreed that the US response to the Russian invasion had created “an impact on the Chinese calculus” over Taiwan. But he said it was important not to assume that President Xi Jinping had less resolve as a result.More on UkraineThe latest: Ukraine has accused Russia of breaching a ceasefire and destroying a hospital in Mariupol, as aid agencies warned of a humanitarian disaster. Track Russia’s invasion using our maps. Business news: Huawei and Xiaomi, China’s biggest smartphone makers, are slashing Russian shipments because of sanctions and the rouble’s collapse.Nuclear threat: Ukraine has raised the alarm over the impact of Russia’s invasion on nuclear facilities after fighting near Chernobyl.Sanctions: The EU has added 14 more Russian business people with close links to the Kremlin and 146 lawmakers to its sanctions list.Energy explainer: What does banning Russian oil mean for global energy markets? Our energy team breaks it down. Sign up here for our Energy Source newsletter. Opinion: China has modelled part of its military structure on the Russian example, and the performance of Russian troops in Ukraine may come to as an unwelcome surprise to China’s People’s Liberation Army, writes Kathrin Hille. Follow our live blog for the latest developments.Five more stories in the news1. Conservative Yoon Suk-yeol elected as South Korean president Opposition candidate Yoon Suk-yeol has narrowly won South Korea’s presidential election, marking a turning point for the world’s tenth-largest economy after a bitter and closely-fought campaign marred by allegations of corruption and sleaze.2. US probes Diller and Geffen over Activision trades US media tycoon Barry Diller and music mogul David Geffen are under investigation for potential insider trading connected to the purchase of Activision Blizzard options days before the video game maker agreed to be acquired by Microsoft, said people briefed about the matter.3. Binance plots M&A spree The company is planning an acquisition spree to push in to new markets as its massive digital assets trading unit comes under sustained regulatory scrutiny. Binance, one of the biggest companies in the digital asset industry, is looking to scoop up businesses that operate in traditional markets, chief executive Changpeng Zhao told the FT.4. SMBC Nikko complained to regulators over trader’s death Japan’s third largest brokerage lodged a complaint with financial regulators last year after a senior trader died following intensive questioning during a probe into alleged market manipulation. SMBC Nikko’s complaint has come to light after four of its senior executives were arrested last Friday.5. Shackleton’s ‘Endurance’ shipwreck found Sir Ernest Shackleton’s ship Endurance has been discovered in deep water off the Antarctic coast more than a century after it was abandoned on his doomed expedition to traverse the continent via the South Pole.

    The stern of the Endurance shipwreck. The vessel has been discovered more than 100 years after it sank during an expedition to traverse Antarctica via the South Pole © Falklands Maritime Heritage Trust/PA

    Coronavirus digest Prudential has warned that Hong Kong’s Covid-19 measures continue to make trading “difficult” in its core market, but the life insurer still plans to increase the share of head office staff.Cathay Pacific’s chief executive said the airline expected to burn up to HK$1.5bn ($192mn) a month for as long as Hong Kong upheld severe pandemic restrictions in response to its worst coronavirus outbreak.The day aheadTurkey hosts Russia officials Russia’s Sergei Lavrov, Ukraine’s Dmytro Kuleba and Mevlut Cavusoglu, Turkish foreign minister, will meet in the southern Turkish city of Antalya on the sidelines of an international diplomatic forum.Indian assembly election results Votes are set to be tallied in the five states of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur. Results will be available online. According to exit polls, Narendra Modi’s BJP is expected to hold on to power in the country’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh. (Indian Express, The Quint) European Council summit French president Emmanuel Macron will host a gathering of EU leaders in Versailles for an informal summit. On the agenda is a wave of applications from former Soviet states to be fast-tracked into EU membership, a complex move that is unlikely to be fulfilled.Join us at 1pm GMT/9pm HKT for an hour of empowering talk about money with a panel of female experts convened by the FT and its new charity, the Financial Literacy and Inclusion Campaign (FT FLIC). We will share practical tips and answer your questions about the money issues that matter most to women. Register for free.What else we’re readingWill the Baltics become the ‘new West Berlin’? Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania could potentially be encircled by Russian expansion, but their leaders insist they have never been so secure. Richard Milne, the FT’s Nordic and Baltic bureau chief, reports from the region for today’s big read. Why gamers are sceptical of Zuckerberg’s metaverse Every company is trying to shape the metaverse according to their strengths and strategies, each using the same word to articulate different visions. As it stands, “metaverse” is little more than a lure for investors.

    Horizon Worlds, a new metaverse launched by Meta © Meta

    What Google knows about the future of war The world’s attention is focused on the bloody tragedy of the physical war in Ukraine. But, as the Alphabet team has noted, a second fight has long taken place in cyber space. And there the Ukrainians appear to have triumphed in a way that has astonished many outsiders Related read: Last year, the US led a secret mission to bolster Ukraine’s cyber defences ahead of a potential Russian invasion.Jean Arnault on watchmaking’s Gen Z appeal Last summer, 23-year-old Jean Arnault joined Louis Vuitton’s watchmaking division as director of marketing and development. His smartphone-addicted, potentially post-wristwatch generation has been of concern to the traditional watch industry, but if Arnault is to be believed, the industry can relax a little.My phone was controlling me, so I went on a digital diet For two weeks I tried to build a new healthier relationship with technology, writes technology correspondent Madhumita Murgia, with mixed results.Thanks to readers who took our poll. Thirty-seven per cent of respondents changed their career during the pandemic.Property From a solar-powered villa on the edge of Lake Como to a Nassau beach house with its own rainwater treatment system, here are five exclusive homes for sale with sustainable features. More

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    Brazil to end port costs in tax calculation to cheapen imports

    At the same time the government is mulling cutting the tax levied on shipping freight, two of the officials said.The moves are prompted by the surge in commodity prices and higher shipping costs caused by the war in Ukraine.The expense of unloading containers and moving goods within port areas is part of the base for calculating import and other taxes such as the IPI industrial tax, the ICMS state taxand the PIS/Cofins sales tax.The three sources, who took part in drafting the measures, did not detail their fiscal cost to the Treasury, but said it was very low. The Economy Ministry said it would not comment on the planned changes that are ready to be applied in a few days.The National Confederation of Industry (CNI), Brazil’s top industry lobby, said in a 2020 study that ending the inclusion of port expenses in taxation on importers could add 134.5 billion reais to the economy over 20 years by expanding the flow of trade and direct investment in the country. More

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    All at sea: Russian-linked oil tanker seeks a port

    LONDON (Reuters) – A Russian-operated oil tanker that Britain turned away over a week ago has yet to find a port to discharge its cargo, and many other vessels are likely to be in the same position as buyers shun trade deals following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. On Tuesday, U.S. President Joe Biden imposed an immediate ban on Russian oil and other energy imports and Britain announced soon after that it would phase out the import of Russian oil and oil products by the end of 2022.The European Union has yet to provide clarity on the prospect of a similar ban by the bloc. The European Commission, the EU executive, has only said it would continue to work on further sanctions.Britain on March 1 banned from its ports all ships that are Russian-owned, operated, controlled, chartered, registered or flagged. The situation is not clear-cut as Britain later said Russia could still send oil and gas to the country because the sanction targeted the vessel, not its cargo.Dockers, however, refused to unload a tanker carrying Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) last week, forcing it to discharge in France. Earlier on Feb. 28, the NS Champion, operated by Russian shipping company Sovcomflot (SCF), changed course and sailed away from Britain towards Denmark, ship-tracking data on Eikon showed.The vessel last reported its position close to Denmark’s coast on Wednesday with its status showing as underway using engine, tracking data showed. SCF did not respond to a request for comment, and the ship’s crew could not be reached. Under Danish law, ports are obliged to receive vessels provided there is space and security considerations are met.Danish authorities did immediately comment on whether they had been in contact with the NS Champion.Up to 65 million barrels of Russian crude are estimated to be on board 90 tankers, which have yet to reach destinations, predictive maritime analytics company Windward said. Seven of those vessels, with 5 million barrels of oil, were reporting their positions as headed to the United States, Windward added. European Union countries are divided on whether to ban energy cargoes with a Russia footprint. Other ships with Russian gas have been able to deliver their cargoes. Two LNG tankers have docked and discharged in ports in France and Belgium since March 5, analysis by data intelligence firm ICIS showed.Denmark is pushing for the EU to take a common decision on excluding Russian vessels from ports in the bloc, Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod said in emailed comments to Reuters.”It will naturally be a far-reaching decision that requires careful preparation. Therefore, it is not something you just do,” he said. SCF was among the Russian entities the U.S. Treasury restricted in February from raising capital in U.S. markets, which shipping sources say will complicate transactions for the Moscow-listed company.Shipowners and operators were “struggling to keep up with the unfolding sanctions and are concerned that activities that are permitted today, will be banned tomorrow,” said Alexander Brandt, a sanctions lawyer at law firm Reed Smith. Significant numbers of Russian-linked tankers carrying crude oil and LNG call at UK ports each year as well as ships carrying steel and other goods, added Nick Austin, a shipping partner at Reed Smith.”Those ships and cargoes will now have to go elsewhere, or more likely never leave Russia at all,” Austin said. More

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    Japan likely to avert stagflation, says senior central banker

    TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan is unlikely to slide into stagflation, a condition where rising inflation and shrinking economic growth co-exist, a senior central bank official said on Wednesday.With the Ukraine crisis triggering sharp rises in energy and commodity prices, consumer inflation will “clearly accelerate” as firms pass on the costs to households, said Seiichi Shimizu, head of the Bank of Japan’s monetary affairs department.”But we don’t expect Japan to face a stagflation-like situation, defined as a combination of rising inflation and a contraction in economic growth,” he told parliament.”We expect Japan’s economy to recover as the hit to service consumption from the coronavirus pandemic eases,” adding to support from solid external demand, he said.The remarks, which come ahead of the BOJ’s policy meeting next week, suggest the central bank will stick to its projection of a moderate economic recovery but acknowledge rising inflationary pressure from the recent surge in energy prices.Under an assessment made in January, the BOJ currently projects consumer inflation to “accelerate” as companies “gradually” pass on rising raw material costs to households.While rising commodity and grain costs will push up energy and food prices in the short-term, it will hurt the economy in the long run through declines in household income and corporate profits, Shimizu said. More