Aurelia Butler

(Reuters) – A key U.S. Senate panel is set on Tuesday to vote on President Joe Biden’s slate of nominees to lead the Federal Reserve, including the renomination of Jerome Powell as chair and Sarah Bloom Raskin as the central bank’s Wall Street regulator.Raskin, a former member of the Fed’s Board of Governors and a one-time U.S. Treasury official, has emerged as the most contentious candidate of the group, with some analysts expecting the 24-member panel to be evenly divided along party lines.Republicans have attacked Raskin over her past comments on using financial rules to police climate change and have accused her of inappropriately lobbying on behalf a fintech firm on whose board she sat, accusations Raskin has denied.While a tie vote would not end Raskin’s nomination, it would complicate and potentially delay her path to confirmation by the full Senate, where a simple majority is required for such votes. The committee vote is scheduled for 2:15 p.m. EST (1915 GMT).With a tied banking panel, Raskin is more likely to need the support of all 50 Democratic senators, including moderates Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, who have opposed other aspects of Biden’s policy agenda. Democratic Senator Ben Ray Lujan is also recovering from a recent stroke, which may further slow the timeline in the event of a committee deadlock.”Sarah Bloom Raskin’s nomination faces the stiffest headwinds of the five Fed nominees, and it will come down to a handful of centrist voters, but we view the odds of confirmation as modestly better than a coin flip right now,” said Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research for brokerage BTIG. If confirmed, Raskin would become the most powerful banking regulator in Washington, overseeing an ambitious portfolio. Her key projects will likely include building tools to assess financial risks from climate change, reversing Wall Street breaks granted by her predecessor Randal Quarles and drafting new rules for fair lending and fintechs.Raskin, who held senior roles at the Treasury and Fed under President Barack Obama, has been praised by progressive Democrats for her experience and expertise. Moderate Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee also spoke supportively of Raskin at her confirmation hearing, and two of them – Mark Warner of Virginia and Jon Tester of Montana – told Reuters on Monday they both planned to vote for Raskin and the rest of Biden’s nominees.OTHER NOMINEES The committee will also be voting on four other nominees for Fed slots: Powell, current Fed Governor Lael Brainard, and proposed newcomers Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson. Powell, a Republican who was appointed during the Trump administration, is set to sail through for another four-year term as Fed chair amid broad bipartisan support. His first term as chair expired earlier this month, but he remains in charge of monetary policy pending his confirmation.Brainard, Cook and Jefferson used their confirmation hearings to signal their backing of the monetary policy agenda set by Powell, which will see the Fed likely begin lifting interest rates at its March 15-16 policy meeting, with several hikes expected to follow in a bid to bring an inflation rate running at the highest level since the early 1980s back under control.Brainard, a Democrat appointed by Obama as a Fed governor in 2014, also seems likely to be confirmed for promotion to the vice chair position, which would make her Powell’s deputy, despite Republican misgivings that she would push for the central bank to strengthen its climate change policies.Cook is an economist at Michigan State University, while Jefferson is an economist and currently dean of faculty at Davidson College in North Carolina. All Democrats on the committee are expected to vote in favor of Cook and Jefferson while at least one Republican, Senator John Kennedy, also indicated he would support them both. If Cook and Jefferson, who are Black, are confirmed as governors to the currently all-white Fed Board, it would make it the most racially diverse in the central bank’s 108-year history. More

Investing.com — Markets rally and risk premiums fade as Russia announces that at least some of its troops are returning to base after drills on the Ukrainian border. Stocks are set to open sharply higher, unless the release of U.S. publishes producer price inflation data for January upsets them. The mining industry continues to churn out cash – so much so that Beijing is moving to tamp down iron ore prices. Airbnb and Marriott report earnings, and the American Petroleum Institute puts out its weekly U.S. inventory report. Here’s what you need to know in financial markets on Tuesday, 15th February.1. Markets rally on Russian pull-backEuropean stocks and U.S. futures rallied along with high-yielding currencies, after Russia’s Defense Ministry said that some of the 100,000+ troops involved in exercises on the border with Ukraine would return to their bases.The comments were accompanied by video purportedly showing tank formations and heavy equipment moving away from their previous positions on the Ukrainian border. They followed a carefully orchestrated televised meeting between President Vladimir Putin and his Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Monday, at which the two agreed to a continuation of diplomatic engagement.Elsewhere, however, Russia published a draft of a new law that would recognize the breakaway republics in eastern Ukraine that were set up after Russia invaded in 2014. That would be a natural prelude to incorporating them into the Russian Federation, as it did with Crimea at the time.2. PPI to test market’s nerveWith the threat of war off the table, attention can return to the more prosaic but still concerning issue of inflation. The U.S. will publish its producer price index for January at 8:30 AM ET (1330 GMT), with expectations that the pace of price increases picked up again to 0.5% from 0.3% in December.December’s print had been the weakest in over a year, prompting hopes that the sequence of strong monthly price increases might be coming to an end. Sustained high energy prices, along with a string of announcements in recent weeks by companies saying they intend to pass on price increases in the coming months, may yet frustrate those hopes.The annual PPI, a more backward-looking measure, is expected to slow to 9.1% from 9.7% last month. Separately, the New York Empire State Manufacturing index for February – due for release at the same time – is expected to bounce back from January’s Covid-hit low.3. Stocks set to open sharply higherU.S. stock markets are set to open sharply higher later in relief at the news out of Russia, but will remain sensitive to the ongoing stream of corporate earnings.By 6:15 AM ET, Dow Jones futures were up 368 points, or 1.1%, whle S&P 500 futures were up 0.5% and NASDAQ 100 futures were up 1.9%.It’s a busy day for earnings, with Marriott, Ecolab (NYSE:ECL) and Iqvia all due to report early, alongside Fidelity National Info (NYSE:FIS). The more exciting releases, arguably, come after the close, with Airbnb, Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN), CF Industries (NYSE:CF) and Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN) all due to give their take on themes from high oil prices to the recovery in the travel and entertainment industries.Also in focus will be Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), reported to be chasing Israel-based chipmaker Tower as a consolation prize after missing out on GlobalFoundries.4. China’s zig-zag policy hits iron ore; miners churn out cashThere were already some interesting reports overnight from the mining sector, with BHP and Glencore (OTC:GLNCY) both churning out cash at near-record rates. BHP (NYSE:BHP) said it will pay out a record $7.6 billion in dividends for the first half of its fiscal year, while Glencore announced dividends and buybacks totaling $4 billion.Glencore stock rose 1.9% after the mining and commodity trading giant also said it will set aside $1.5 billion to cover litigation costs from a multi-jurisdiction investigation into suspected bribery, drawing something of a line under a long-running problem for the stock. It’s also selling a long-held stake in Russian oil producer Russneft.However, commodity markets eased along with fears of supply disruption from Russia, while Iron ore already tumbled through an important support level after China’s government warned against ‘speculation’ and ‘hoarding’. Iron ore has rallied strongly in recent months since China lifted pollution-related restrictions on steel output and also loosened monetary policy to help its struggling real estate sector.5. Oil slumps as war fears recedeCrude oil prices fell by nearly $3 a barrel as the geopolitical risk premium that had accumulated over the last week largely evaporated.By 6:30 AM ET, U.S. crude futures were down 3.0% at $92.61 a barrel, while Brent crude was down 2.8% at $93.81 a barrel.The slightly more relaxed new state of affairs will allow the market to focus on U.S. supply data when the American Petroleum Institute publishes its weekly inventory report at 4:30 PM ET. Analysts expect a drop of some 1.8 million barrels from last week. More

UK inflation outpaced wage growth at the end of last year, despite job vacancies reaching a record high since the start of the Covid pandemic. Economists predicted the tightening labour market will strengthen the chance of further interest rate rises this year, as the Bank of England battles surging inflation.Average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, grew at an annual pace of 3.7 per cent in the final quarter of 2021, according to data published by the Office for National Statistics on Tuesday. However, prices rose faster than pay, pushing down wages by 0.8 per cent in real terms over the same period, the first contraction since the summer of 2020.This is despite a continuing squeeze in the labour market. The number of job vacancies in the three months to January rose to 1.3mn, up 513,700 from January to March 2020, reaching their highest level since records began in 2001.Labour shortages were broad-based across the economy, with the ratio of vacancies to employees rising to record highs in the majority of sectors.Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies think-tank, said the UK labour market was at its tightest for at least 50 years.Louise Burns, director of the job agency Nineteen Recruitment, said that it was a “bittersweet” time for recruiters. “We are rejoicing at the number of job opportunities while wailing at our desks over the lack of candidates.” The number of employees, based on real time data from HM Revenue & Customs, also increased by 108,000 between December and January to 29.5mn.Sam Beckett, ONS head of economic statistics, said that while the number of employees on payrolls was well above pre-pandemic levels, overall, employment was lower than before the health crisis. “This is because there are now far fewer self-employed people,” she said.The unemployment rate decreased 0.2 percentage points in the last quarter to 4.1 per cent. Redundancies also hit a record low of 2.6 per cent, while job-to-job moves rose significantly, driven by resignations as workers sought better career opportunities elsewhere.Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said the latest data showed the labour market “has withstood the temporary setback triggered by Omicron”.Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said that the record high job vacancies and the falling unemployment rate was “a recipe for more interest rate hikes”. Dales added that he expected the Bank of England to raise rates from its current level of 0.50 per cent to 1.25 per cent this year, increasing to 2 per cent in 2023. The Bank of England has raised interest rates twice in its past meetings. Further inflation could add pressure on the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee to increase rates at its upcoming March meeting, said Ellie Henderson, an economist at Investec.However, James Smith, economist at ING, argued that there should be signs of a wage-price spiral to justify the further rate rises that markets are pricing this year. “We aren’t convinced that’s likely,” he said, adding that policymakers would probably “hike more gradually than investors expect”. Labour shortages were exacerbated by an exodus of staff during the health crisis. Nearly 400,000 people, mostly the over-50s, disengaged from the world of work over the pandemic, and were neither in employment or actively seeking it, according to the ONS. “With high economic inactivity indicating that many people have left the jobs market altogether, chronic staff shortages are likely to weigh on the economy for a sustained period,” said Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce, a group that represents UK businesses.

The number of people in employment actually fell 38,000 in the three months to December compared with the previous quarter, marking the first contraction in the labour market since the start of last year.The Bank of England has forecast unemployment to start rising from the second quarter and pick up to 5 per cent. The central bank has predicted that nominal wage growth will moderate this year, as demand weakens due to the largest squeeze in real incomes in 30 years resulting from surging energy costs and higher taxes. More

The package for 2022-2025 is in line with a zero emission vehicle policy plus a goal to ensure 30% of Thailand’s total auto production are EVs by 2030, Thanakorn Wangboonkongchana told a news conference.In the first two years, the measures will focus on encouraging widespread domestic use of EVs by providing tax breaks and subsidies for imported models and those made locally, he said.In the last years of the package, the support will mainly be on promoting domestically produced EVs, while cancelling some benefits for imported models, Thanakorn said. “This is to encourage operators to accelerate the production of electric vehicles in the country to meet increasing demand,” he said.Thailand last year produced 1.7 million regular vehicles, for firms that include Toyota, Honda and Mitsubishi. Thanakorn did not give further details on the incentives, which he said would need to be worked out with the energy ministry.According to earlier media reports, the package will help reduce the price of each EV by between 70,000 baht ($2,165) and 150,000 baht ($4,638). ($1 = 32.34 baht) More