Aurelia Butler

When asked if a victory of the left-wing leader was already priced into financial markets, Campos Neto told an O Globo columnist that some market prices were showing an “elimination” of the risk of a government transition.”It means that the market has become less afraid of passing from one government to another. This is what we can interpret. Because probably a government that represented a risk of more extreme measures is moving to the center. This is our interpretation from what we capture in market prices,” he said, according to the columnist.The central bank did not immediately respond to a request to verify the quotes.Lula, a leftist former union leader and president from 2003 to 2010, holds a healthy lead in opinion polls over right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro ahead of the October election. In the remarks published to the O Globo website on Monday ahead of an airing of the interview on TV channel Globo News, Campos Neto also highlighted the importance of a law shielding the central bank from presidential influence. Under the law approved last year, Campos Neto will remain in charge for at least two years of the next four-year presidential term.Last month, Lula also played down concerns about traditional left-wing concerns about central bank independence, saying that the institution had to be committed to Brazil, not to him.The former president’s more conciliatory stance led some investors to bet on more pragmatic economic policies under a possible Lula government, helping to draw a surge of financial inflows to Brazil so far this year. More

(Reuters) -Senate Democrats and Banking Committee members Jon Tester and Mark Warner on Monday said they will both vote to confirm President Joe Biden’s slate of nominees to the Federal Reserve, including Sarah Bloom Raskin as the Fed’s top bank regulator.The two moderate Democrats confirmed their intentions to Reuters ahead of a scheduled Banking Committee vote on the matter scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.”I’m going to support them,” Tester, a Montana Democrat, told Reuters. “I’m for them,” echoed Warner, who represents Virginia. Warner added he is confident committee Chairman Sherrod Brown of Ohio “can get this done.”Support for Biden’s five nominees, including Jerome Powell for a second term as chair, is varied. Raskin, nominated as vice chair for supervision, is seen as facing the narrowest path to confirmation, one that could require the support of every Democrat in the closely divided Senate.The first step in that process is Tuesday afternoon’s vote by the 24-member banking panel, split evenly between Democrats and Republicans. Most of the nominees are expected to pick up one or more Republican votes, but Republicans have been particularly critical of Raskin for past remarks on using financial rules to police climate change. More

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Worries over a potential Russian invasion into Ukraine could fuel stock weakness over the short-term, but most U.S. market fallout related to geopolitics is likely to be short-lived, if history is any guide. With the S&P 500 down over 7% to start the year and bond yields spiking, concerns about a hawkish turn by the Federal Reserve in its fight against surging consumer prices stand to remain at the forefront of investors’ minds this year, even as developments overseas could rattle markets in the near term.”The equity markets are more at risk from the fallout from the war on inflation than on a potential invasion of Ukraine,” Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, wrote in a note to investors. Stocks have been hit in recent days and investors have rushed to safe-haven assets amid rising worries over a potential conflict in Eastern Europe. On Monday, the S&P 500 last was down 1% in choppy trading.Past ructions from geopolitical events have been comparatively fleeting, CFRA’s research showed. The firm analyzed 24 events since World War II, finding the S&P 500 fell on average of 5.5% from peak to trough in the aftermath of those events. The market took an average of 24 days from the start of the event to reach a bottom, but it recouped those losses in an average of 28 days later, according to Stovall. Truist Advisory Services, meanwhile, reviewed 12 historical events, including the 2003 Iraq War, 1979 Iranian hostage crisis and the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. The S&P 500 was higher a year after those events in nine of the 12 times, with an average gain of 8.6% – perhaps not surprising for an index that has gained about 4,000% since 1980. “When you look at the history of geopolitical events, they tend to have a short-term impact on the markets, and as long as they don’t drive you into recession, then the markets tend to rebound,” said Keith Lerner, the firm’s co-chief investment officer. “The conclusion is that we don’t think investors should overreact to this situation by itself.” Still, some on Wall Street worried the impact of a intensified Russia-Ukraine conflict could be longer lasting for some parts of the market. David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) Funds, said a Russia invasion of Ukraine could be expected to drive up energy prices, while the prices of other commodities also could surge. Oil prices were at almost seven-year highs on Monday.Higher energy prices were also on the mind of Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) strategist Michael Wilson, who said a further spike could “destroy demand, in our view, and perhaps tip several economies into an outright recession.” More