Aurelia Butler

Fans of TV drama Succession will know that the latest series doesn’t mention coronavirus. The calculation was simple: the characters are a Murdoch-esque billionaire family and, as one actor put it, “none of the world’s really wealthy people were going to be affected by the pandemic”.But that’s wrong! The wealthy have been affected. Goldman Sachs bankers aren’t receiving their usual bonus this year: they’re getting two. Our financial aristocracy have also suffered. For a second year, the World Economic Forum meetings in Davos have been cancelled. Wait, not cancelled — worse, Davos has gone online. All the speeches from world leaders; none of the parties with Matt Damon. The horror. Nobody became a billionaire to watch a webinar of Ursula von der Leyen. There’s no kudos to being in the Zoom where it happened. I strongly suspect that this week the elite spent less time with Klaus Schwab than they did with nasal swabs.Can Davos survive this latest indignity? Things were bad in 2019 when Donald Trump didn’t show up. They were worse the next year when he did. Taking private jets to discuss the perils of climate change is now widely seen as suboptimal. Schwab, who founded the WEF in 1971, is now 83. Could Davos itself retire? Or at least move to the metaverse, where it can sell NFTs of thought bubbles?To answer that question, we must examine what Davos is. A plutocracy parade? A superspreader event for sociopathy? No. Last week it hit me: Davos is best understood as an offshoot of New Age spirituality.Look among the UK’s best-selling books and you’ll find Manifest: 7 Steps to Living Your Best Life. This is a guide to “manifesting”, the belief that you can change reality largely through the power of positive thinking. We alter our thoughts, thereby altering our emotions. This alters the frequency of energy we put out, which in turn alters the energy we receive. Don’t worry if you feel adrift: if you act as if you deserve what you want — a job, a girlfriend, an honest prime minister — the universe will deliver it.The theory is utterly mad and utterly Davos. Who are the WEF attendees but lost souls? As Schwab and his co-author, Thierry Malleret, write in their new book, The Great Narrative for a Better Future: “In private conversations, we also heard decision makers confess ‘they are a bit lost’ or ‘don’t really know what’s happening’.” And what is Davos but an attempt by these decision makers to create their own reality? For decades, attendees have thought about equality and sustainability. For decades, they have expected to deliver these things through good vibes, rather than, say, the tax code. It’s the thought that counts. The actions — leave those to us little people. Conspiracy theorists claim the WEF created coronavirus in a plot to bring about a surveillance state. The dark irony is that Davos can barely achieve anything, let alone that. The demigods of the Swiss Mount Olympus knew about the risk of infectious disease before Covid-19 arrived. In 2019, a WEF report warned that the world “is not prepared to respond to a significant pandemic threat”. So what did it change? Well, it probably felt fun to be at the centre of such weighty discussion. Davos is set up to make us feel upbeat about the world’s problems; expecting it to actually solve them is like asking a toaster to boil water.You can’t get good vibes on a webinar panel. But happily you can manifest anywhere. Forget the Alps. If you’re a member of the Davos elite, you can get your fix at home. Or at your other home. Or in space. Or, depending on the outcome of your lawyer’s negotiations with the US justice department, in jail. You see, the 0.1 per cent are not like us. They’re just like Gen Z [email protected] More

Scarcity can be a sign of exclusivity. A three-year waiting list is common for Bugatti buyers. Now Japanese automaker Toyota is asking some customers to be just as patient. Would-be buyers of its new Land Cruiser may have to wait as long as four years.Part of the explanation lies in burgeoning demand. Japan’s pandemic-led camping boom has sharply increased demand for sport utility vehicles such as the Land Cruiser. But Toyota also faces supply-chain disruptions. Chip shortages have already resulted in steep production cuts. A new wave of coronavirus infections is making matters worse. Production at many of its Japanese plants has been suspended for several days. Suppliers exposed to lockdowns in south-east Asia over the past year are running short on components. Expected February output is now a fifth lower than the guidance it gave last month. Toyota is also made more vulnerable to disruptions by what was once its biggest strength and edge over global rivals: lean manufacturing. Toyota pioneered “just-in-time” production decades ago, having started inventory controls in the 1970s. The strategy, which has helped it cut costs and improve efficiency, is based on having as little inventory as possible and relying on frequent, small deliveries of exactly the amount of components required for production.The persistent disruptions in the global supply chain and rising inflation will now require automakers to do the opposite: stockpile parts to manage costs. Typically for automakers the size of Toyota, a day of lost production can cost up to $10m. Savings from just-in-time manufacturing, like warehouse costs for example, would not offset those losses.Toyota shares are down 5 per cent this week, reflecting looming disruptions. Even so, at 10 times forward earnings, that represents a nearly two-thirds premium to peer Volkswagen. The longer its plants are halted, the faster that gap should close. More

BEIJING (Reuters) -China will be able to achieve economic growth of around 5.5% in 2022, an adviser to the government’s cabinet said on Friday, making a rosier prediction than markets expect as recent data have pointed to slowing momentum.The world’s second-largest economy cooled over the course of last year and faces multiple headwinds as a property downturn hurts investment and China’s efforts to contain local cases of the highly contagious Omicron variant of COVID-19 weigh on consumption.That has prompted policymakers to roll out an array of support measures, including Friday’s cut by the central bank in the rate on standing lending facility (SLF) loans by 10 basis points, a day after it cut benchmark lending rates.Friday’s comments by Zhu Guangyao, a former vice finance minister, are more optimistic than those from private economists. A Reuters poll of analysts published on Jan. 13 forecast China’s economy would grow 5.2% in 2022.The government will unveil a growth target for 2022 at the opening of the annual parliament meeting in early March.”I’m confident that China’s economic growth will be around 5.5% in 2022,” Zhu told a media briefing, adding that the potential economic growth rate was estimated at 5-6%.Li Yang, former vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a top government think tank, said China has policy space to support the economy.China was restrained on monetary policy and fiscal policy in 2021, leaving some space for this year, Li said during the same event on Friday hosted by China’s State Council Information Office.On Thursday, Premier Li Keqiang said China will take more “practical and concrete measures” to boost effective demand and stabilise market expectations, state media reported.China’s cabinet has pledged to speed the issuance of local government special bonds to boost investment, while the finance ministry has issued 1.46 trillion yuan ($230.26 billion)in the 2022 advance quota for local special bonds.STABILITY KEYChinese policymakers, however, have ruled out “flood-like” stimulus for fear of reigniting debt and property risks.China’s economy expanded 8.1% in 2021, the fastest in a decade due partly to the low base from 2020 when COVID-19 jolted the economy, comfortably beating an official target of “above 6%”.Last year, Chinese policymakers focused on curbing property and debt risks, exacerbating the slowdown, but have eased back somewhat so as not to fuel job losses ahead of a key Communist Party Congress late this year.Zhu also said that expected interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve could have a big market impact, Zhu said, and said that the United States should strengthen its policy coordination with emerging economies, including China.”We hope the United States could change the idea that ‘the dollar is our currency, but your problem’, and truly strengthen its policy coordination with other countries, especially developing countries and emerging market countries,” Zhu said.Li said the expected Fed tightening could trigger capital outflows from developing countries, with some already feeling the pressure.The impact on China’s economy will be contained by its controls on capital flows and a managed-float yuan exchange rate, Li added.Economists polled by Reuters expect the Fed to raise its key interest rate three times this year, tightening policy at a much faster pace than thought a month ago to tame persistently high inflation.($1 = 6.3406 Chinese yuan renminbi) More

SANTIAGO (Reuters) – Chile’s leftist President-elect Gabriel Boric’s unveiled his first cabinet on Friday, throwing markets and investors a bone with a moderate pick of current central bank head Mario Marcel for the Andean country’s important finance ministry role.The make-up of the new government is being closely watched as a key signal about how 35-year-old lawmaker and former student protest leader Boric may steer the world’s top copper producing nation after a thumping election win late last year.Boric also named Izkia Siches, a prominent doctor and part of his campaign team, as future interior minister and deputy, as well as lawmaker Marcela Hernando in the key role of mining minister, where copper and lithium development will be in focus.The cabinet was made up from members of parties across the political spectrum, reflecting a fragmented and diverse Congress, while women will lead over half of the ministries.Boric has pledged during the election campaign to enact major reforms to Chile’s market-led economic model, which had rattled investors, though he has moderated his tone since, boosting Chile’s markets and currency.The peso currency strengthened early on Friday to under 800 per dollar for the first time since November.”A part of the political risk hindering the Chilean peso since October 2019 has receded,” said Jorge Selaive, chief economist at Scotiabank Chile, adding the market had expected a moderate candidate to lead the economic portfolio.Chile, a global frontrunner in vaccine roll-out, ended last year as the world’s best-performing economy, buoyed by large state spending and several rounds of private pensions withdrawals to ease the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.Boric, who comes into office on March 11, will however have to content with signs of an overheating economy and inflation.”One of Boric’s biggest challenges will be cooling down the economy and retaining popular support,” Oxford Economics said in a report, adding the young leader would face pressure to increase social spending while meeting tighter budget targets.During the campaign, Boric pledge to “bury” Chile’s market-orientated model, which has driven growth in the South American country in recent decades but has also deepened inequality, triggering months of social protests at the end of 2019.He has promised to reform the private pension and health systems and raise taxes to finance greater social spending.Boric, however, faces a fragmented Congress, which analysts say will force him to moderate the adjustments he makes and seek consensus with more centrist sectors.^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^Chilean peso has rallied from record low https://tmsnrt.rs/3rEpA0iChilean peso has rallied from record low (Interactive) https://tmsnrt.rs/3qL0UnyLatin America bond yield spreads https://tmsnrt.rs/3ryvBvGLatin America bond yield spreads (Interactive) https://tmsnrt.rs/3KumAMH^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ > More

The introduction of checks on some goods since neighbouring Britain left the European Union’s trading orbit at the end of 2020 led to a sharp fall in trade between it and EU-member Ireland and an increase in shipping routes from Ireland to mainland Europe.The volume of accompanied freight on the main routes between Dublin and Britain fell by 21% to 703,000 while the 259,000 units on direct routes to continental Europe represented a three-fold increase, figures from Ireland’s largest port showed.”The landbridge has gone. It hasn’t re-emerged. I thought it would but it hasn’t and there’s nothing to suggest it is going to in my mind because the British have yet to introduce import controls. I don’t see the landbridge recovering,” Dublin Port Chief Executive Eamonn O’Reilly (NASDAQ:ORLY) told the Irish Times.A spokesman for the port confirmed that the quote was accurate.For decades, the landbridge offered offered the swiftest, most reliable route to mainland Europe. It involved a short sea crossing between Dublin and Holyhead in Wales and then a hop between Dover (NYSE:DOV) and Calais in France.The second largest port of Rosslare in the southeast has also benefitted from the move towards direct European routes, while more Irish goods are being shipped to Britain via Northern Ireland as there are no checks in the British-run region. More