Aurelia Butler

How closely did you follow the news in 2021? Take our quiz.Hello and welcome to a new year.I am starting 2022 by looking a little further ahead than usual, outlining events set to happen over the next 12 months. Think of it is a forward planner diary for the coming year.If there is an overarching theme — apart from the further evolution of Covid — then it is going to be national leadership. We will be aware of the venerability, and vulnerability, of our presidents, prime ministers and other heads of state in 2022. Perhaps most notable, at least because of the time she has been in the job, is the milestone about to be reached by the Queen. In February, health permitting, she will have reigned for 70 years, the longest of any British monarch. A cluster of jubilee celebrations have been planned for the following months, which organisers hope will lift the Covid-damped mood of many Britons, including a contest to create new cities. Could it even aid the country’s economic recovery?Across the Channel, Emmanuel Macron will be trying to sustain his own period in office through the French presidential elections, which kick off in April. With France having just taken the revolving presidency of the Council of the EU, Macron will be able to use a pan-European stage to project his authority to his domestic audience.US president Joe Biden has to worry about his party’s hold on power in Washington with midterm elections looming in November. It currently looks like an opportunity for Republicans to end Democrat control of one or both houses of Congress.It will be a significant year also for China’s leadership, but for different reasons. In October, President Xi Jinping will — barring a major upset — be anointed as a latter-day emperor at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party with a ruling enabling him to remain in office until at least 2028.Hopefully you will find this skeleton guide to the next 12 months useful — as ever, you can email me at [email protected] with your views. The Week Ahead will return to its normal structure next Sunday. I wish you a prosperous new year and look forward to returning with the usual weekly guide on January 9.Key economic, company and world eventsJanuaryChange at the top of Johnson & Johnson. Joaquin Duato becomes CEO, succeeding Alex Gorsky, who becomes executive chairEuropean Commission’s provisional deadline for a decision for its investigation into the proposed acquisition of Kustomer by FacebookWorld Bank launches the winter edition of its Global Economic Prospects report, a semi-annual forecast with an emphasis on the emerging and developing regions of the worldAustralia, final cricket test match of the Ashes series between Australia and England in Hobart plus the Australian Open tennis tournament in MelbourneWorld Economic Forum Annual Meeting. The annual gathering of world leaders will take place online rather than in Davos, SwitzerlandFebruaryUK, Ofgem will announce an update to its energy price capFirst flight planned for the Nasa X-57, a small, experimental aircraft powered by electricity55th session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, rescheduled from September 2021UK, the Queen celebrates her platinum jubilee, marking 70 years as monarchUS, Joe Biden’s full year 2023 Budget will be releasedMarchWorld Trade Organization annual trade statistics releaseBelgium, Nato foreign ministers’ meetingChina, National People’s Congress annual session for China’s top legislatureMali, run-offs for presidential and parliamentary electionsAprilFrance, presidential elections beginG20 finance ministers and central bank governors meetSpaceX Crew-4 mission launches on a Falcon 9 rocket, to fly astronauts to the International Space StationIMF World Economic Outlook publishedMayColombia, presidential electionItaly, Eurovision Song Contest in TurinPhilippines, general electionUK, local elections in England, Wales and Scotland plus deadline for Northern Ireland assembly elections. Also, May Day bank holiday moves to June for Queen’s jubilee celebrationsOECD economic outlook reportJuneFrance, presidential elections concludeUK, Glastonbury Festival set to return after cancellations in 2020 and 2021UK, winners announced in contest to gain official city status. The capitals of the Falkland Islands, Cayman Islands and Gibraltar are among the 39 applicants.JulyFrance, Cannes Film FestivalUN Foundation gender equality summitAugustNasa Pre-Aerosol Clouds and ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission due to launchUK, 75th Edinburgh Fringe Festival25th anniversary of Diana, Princess of Wales’s death in a Paris car crashSeptemberUK, Bank of England withdraws the legal tender status of the paper £20 and £50 notes, having replaced them in recent years with polymer notesUN General Debate opensOctoberChina, Chinese Communist party begins its five-yearly National CongressIMF and World Bank annual meetingsNovemberQatar, Fifa World Cup beginsUS, midterm electionsDecemberTunisia, parliamentary elections More

Investing.com – The last few years have undoubtedly marked a turning point in the markets. In a short space of time, we have experienced a global pandemic, rising inflation, and a great increase and now withdrawal of stimulus policies by central banks.All of this is heightened with commodities soaring, currencies spinning, interest rates rising and the indices of the world’s major economies surging and setting record highs.After these unpredictable years, what can we expect in 2022? Forecasts suggest that 2022 will not exactly be a quiet year, but how will that differ from the recent past? More importantly, which will be the factors to watch for investors to have success in 2022?The last few months of 2021 have seen the warning of rising inflation. Undoubtedly, it has become an increasingly real, present, and noticeable threat. And that’s how most analysts see it, as they point to inflation as among the key factors for 2022.In this regard, Andrew McCaffery, CIO of Asset Management at Fidelity International, notes that “despite messages from central banks that inflationary pressures are temporary, some price increases look set to persist due to supply chain bottlenecks and de-globalisation and, in the longer term, due to the cost of efforts to achieve carbon neutrality.”In other words, no transitory inflation at all. It seems that we will have inflation for a while in 2022.For Ingrid Kukuljan, Head of Sustainable and Impact Investing at Federated Hermes (NYSE:FHI), “Inflation has been one of the main concerns for investors going into 2022. Our view is that the supply chain bottlenecks that are occurring as a result of a global reopening will continue to put upward pressure on prices well into 2022. This, coupled with an increase in demand due to the reopening and statistical base effects, will further exacerbate the current inflationary hysteria.”Given this scenario, Pedro del Pozo, director of financial investments at Mutualidad de la Abogacía, echoes that inflation will remain “the main economic unknown for the coming months.” “Rate curves are flattening, which makes it very clear that the market takes it for granted that these possible rate hikes will not only kill inflation but also, probably, in part future growth,” explains the expert, who warns that this will be, precisely, “a very important point to bear in mind in 2022, because of its impact on both bond and equity markets.”Commodities have been a big part of the inflation story over the last year. To explain the strong performance of commodities in recent years, experts point to the fact that commodity baskets, although cyclical, complement other asset classes very well. As a result, the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) has risen by almost 60% since the beginning of the pandemic and by 24% since January 2021.Pierre Debru, Head of Multi-Asset Solutions and Quantitative Analytics at WisdomTree provides two basic facts to understand this trend: “Commodity baskets tend to hold up very well in the early stages of a recession, when equities suffer the most. They also tend to do well in the latter parts of an economic expansion when equities generally fail to get a second wind,” which is where we are now and will likely be for much of 2022.For many months the messages from the top central bankers have played the ambiguity card, although in their latest meetings they have clarified the picture considerably. In this sense, the conclusion is that the important meetings in December have not surprised the market, even though important decisions were taken. Thus, A&G points out that “the focus of the meetings has clearly been more restrictive or hawkish, which seems to mark the future of upcoming meetings.”  On the other hand, A&G’s professionals point out that “not all central banks are at the same point in the cycle, with the Anglo-Saxons leading the way for the ECB from next year onwards, especially if price expectations continue to surprise on the upside.”Víctor Alvargonzález, founding partner and strategy director of Nextep Finance, comments that “the Federal Reserve members’ opinions (the famous ‘dot plot’) place interest rates at around 1% at the end of 2022, once the three rate hikes they plan to carry out have been made. With an estimated 4% growth in the economy next year, these are not interest rates that are going to hurt growth.” For James McCann, deputy chief economist at Aberdeen Asset Management, “the Fed’s recently announced decision was a lesson to investors about how quickly central banks’ policy signals can change. Investors should not underestimate the Fed’s willingness to go even faster than it has signaled if inflation continues to surprise to the upside, even if this unsettles markets.”Another important factor that may mark 2022 is not a strictly economic issue. There are currently a number of open disputes between several countries which, if nothing is done, could provoke a butterfly effect that, with the current situation, could lead to unpredictable results.Chris Iggo, CIO Core Investments at AXA Investment Managers, says: “I think the first few months of 2022 are going to be difficult. Apart from the COVID-19/inflation issue, there are growing geopolitical concerns over Russia and Ukraine and China’s stance towards Taiwan. In Europe, there is the possibility that things could get very ugly in the UK, where the government is under attack on several fronts, and in the French presidential election in the spring.””Increasing geopolitical tensions (in particular between the US and China) seem likely to help certain countries (such as Vietnam and India) who benefit from a reorganization of supply chains. Private credit strategies focused on the Asia-Pacific region may be well positioned in this environment,” says Emmanuel Deblanc, Head of Private Markets at Allianz (DE:ALVG) Global Investors.It goes without saying that Covid and its new variants must be taken into account in 2022. Two years ago, the pandemic emerged, acting as the trigger for many of the factors described above. Almost 24 months later, new mutations of the virus continue to emerge to spook the markets. Even with vaccinations, this will still be a problem that does not appear to be easy to solve in the short/medium term. The experts at Allianz Global Investors argue, “economic growth seems likely to decelerate after the rebound associated with the ‘base effect’ we observed in 2021. COVID-19 related uncertainty and supply chain bottlenecks are likely to weigh on growth, and will be a major source of price volatility.” That unpredictability, both in Covid’s direct impact and in secondary factors as the economy ‘re-normalizes’ could make for opportunities and also volatile times on the market in 2022.Read also: 2021 Year In Review: Investing.com Comic EditionSee our full 2022 outlook series here. More

Investing.com – 2022 kicks off with a set of December economic data points that will provide important signposts for both the state of the economy in advance of a year of potential Central Bank policy tightening, and on how big of an impact the Omicron variant of Covid-19 has had on the global economy. While it’s not quite earnings season yet, we also have a few corporate reports to review this week. And an OPEC meeting may be the headline event for the week and the one that has the biggest impact on the year ahead.Here’s what you need to watch for in the first week of 2022 in financial markets:The U.S. Jobs non-farms payrolls report comes out Friday. Expectations are for a growth of 400,000 jobs, vs. 210K last month and an average of 494K jobs added in the last six months. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 4.1% from 4.2%.Unemployment is the flipside of inflation, at least in the Federal Reserve’s estimation and aims, so a strong report would give more room to the Fed to proceed with rate hike and policy tightening plans. At the same time, the last report that came during a big Covid-19 wave – the August and September reports overlapping with the Delta wave – came in light at least in the initial read before the numbers were revised upward. While few new restrictions were put into place in response to the latest wave from the Omicron variant, consumers’ behavior changing and the raw fact of hundreds of thousands of people being sick may weigh on the numbers.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meets on Tuesday. At their previous meeting, OPEC reaffirmed their decision to increase oil production in 2022 and said that they expected a low impact from Omicron on demand for oil. With a month more data – which includes record cases and a bevy of flight cancellations on the one hand, but a not quite clear consensus that this variant’s effects are milder than previous incarnations of Covid – we’ll see whether OPEC holds the line, as expected, or alters its outlook and production schedule in any way for the year ahead.Oil finished the year up over 50%, with Crude Oil WTI having its best year since 2009 and Brent its best year since 2016, and the recovery of demand to pre-pandemic levels this year is expected to support the price of oil even with OPEC’s production increases.PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) reports come out this week across the world, which will be another key gauge on economic activity. Scanning the Investing.com economic calendar, it appears forecasters expect expanded activity (numbers north of 50) in most places, reflecting perhaps the holiday season and the continued recovery momentum from the pandemic. With supply chain challenges continuing, one would expect manufacturing to ramp up as part of ‘normalization’, but the changes in behavior and winter weather in the Northern hemisphere may slow services growth.Consumer price index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports also come out from various countries this week. South Korea kicks off the stream of reports, with European countries and then the Eurozone as a whole reporting later this week.2021 was a year of more money chasing fewer goods and experiences, begetting inflation, so these two sets of reports will give a spot check of how many regions exited 2021 and how that sets them up for the year ahead.While Q4 earnings season tends to be the slowest to kick off as companies close their books for the year, we get a few off-cycle reports this week to work through.Walgreens Boots Alliance (NASDAQ:WBA) is the headliner, as the U.S.-based pharmacy retailer reports Thursday before market open. It is expected to report $32.46B in revenue, a 7% decrease vs. the year ago period (amid a divestiture), as well as $1.35/share in earnings, a 31% jump. This comes amid reports that Bain Capital has made a bid for the U.K.-based Boots chain.Bed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ:BBBY) also reports Thursday morning. The one-time meme stock and struggling retailer missed on earnings last quarter and provided underwhelming guidance, so eyes will be on whether they can show any incremental improvement or positive guidance for the holiday season quarter (this report is for the quarter ending November 27th).MillerKnoll (NASDAQ:MLKN) reports Tuesday after market hours. The office furniture maker – a combination of legacy companies Herman Miller and Knoll – is expected to post $1.04B in revenue in its first quarter as a combined entity, and the call and guidance will be a good indicator for whether companies are merely postponing plans to return to the office or abandoning them. WD-40 Company (NASDAQ:WDFC), Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ), and PriceSmart Inc (NASDAQ:PSMT) are among other reporters this week.See our full earnings calendar for the latest.Read also: 3 Stocks To Watch Next Week: Bed Bath & Beyond, Walgreens, Constellation BrandsU.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin are scheduled to speak by phone this Thursday as the tension at the Ukraine/Russia border continues. This would mark the second call in three weeks amidst the stationing of 100,000 Russian troops on the Ukrainian border.Officials from the U.S. and Russia are poised to meet in Geneva next Monday, January 10th, for security pact negotiations that this recent crisis has brought to light.President Biden is also expected to speak to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy today to express his support for Ukraine.Beyond the risk of geopolitical instability and what that would mean for markets, this situation has been most relevant for investors with respect to European energy prices and the knock-on effects of inflation in the food supply chain and elsewhere. While natural gas has backed off its recent peak in Europe after a series of supply adjustments, a calming of tensions would be a good thing for markets and the region more broadly, assuming it is not too dearly bought.Read also: Investing.com’s 2022 Market Outlook More

“When the world stopped, you kept going.” The slogan will greet tens of thousands of construction industry contractors, dealers and distributors who have paid up to $600 each to attend the World of Concrete trade show this month in Las Vegas — unless the Omicron variant of coronavirus forces a last-minute cancellation.How many corporate exhibitions can themselves keep going in the new year is once again in doubt. Just as business executives had finally begun reaching for their conference lanyards again after months of restrictions, the fast-spreading Covid-19 strain has prompted another round of postponements.At ExCeL, a venue in east London, the education technology fair Bett, gambling sector event ICE and eyewear exhibition 100% Optical — all of which are supposed to be go-to events in their respective sectors early this year — have been pushed back.Some exhibitors have meanwhile withdrawn from shows that are still happening. Amazon, Meta and Twitter are among several tech groups that have pulled out of in-person appearances at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES), although organisers are determined to press ahead with the event, which is due to start this week, also in Las Vegas.Having survived previous coronavirus-induced restrictions and cancellations, battle-hardened executives behind some of the world’s biggest trade shows are trying to position their companies to take advantage once the pandemic finally subsides.“Effectively, we have been scheduling, rescheduling, negotiating, renegotiating every three months for almost two years,” said Stephen Carter, chief executive of Informa, the world’s largest trade show organiser. “It has been very demanding on our teams, and it’s been quite demanding on our relationships with venue partners and contractors.”Even so, he added: “Customers have remained very committed to participating — when they’re able to.”So confident is Carter in its prospects that he has identified events as one of Informa’s priority areas for expansion, alongside academic publishing.This month, the FTSE 100 media company laid out plans to dispose of a portfolio of data and consultancy assets and niche publications estimated to be worth at least £1.7bn, and to redeploy a chunk of the funds in its events business.Investors remain circumspect. Shares in Informa are almost 40 per cent lower than they were at the start of 2020, while Paris-listed GL Events is down 25 per cent over the same period and New York-listed Emerald Holding 62 per cent.Nevertheless, before the emergence of Omicron there were encouraging signs for the sector that Zoom-weary delegates were keen to return.Data from the Center for Exhibition Industry Research (CEIR) show cancellation rates among US business-to-business exhibitions improved from 98 per cent in the second half of 2020 to 19 per cent in the third quarter of 2021.Despite a slow start to the year and persistent concerns about coronavirus, CEIR estimates that 15.3m people attended such events in the US in 2021 — more than double the previous year, albeit less than half pre-pandemic levels.“The snapback shows the model is strong,” said Paul Thandi, chief executive of NEC Group, owner of the UK’s National Exhibition Centre in Birmingham. Still, he added, since the spread of Omicron “exhibitors have become more risk-averse”. “They are wary of spending thousands on stands, staffing costs and other ancillaries,” he said.The Frankfurt Book Fair. Trade shows have been forced to spend more on Covid-related measures such as sanitising and social distancing © Arne Dedert/AFP/Getty Events due to take place at the NEC in the new year that have been rescheduled include Lamma, an agricultural machinery show popular with farmers. Despite the widespread cancellations, few large event organisers so far have run into serious financial difficulties, in part because their parent companies have interests in other sectors that have not been hit so badly by the pandemic.One exception is Paris-based Comexposium, which spent much of the past year in a “safeguard procedure”, although it exited this in October after shareholders injected €110m into the business.Some other organisers tapped shareholders for cash at the onset of the pandemic, helping them weather the storm. Informa raised £1bn in a placing last year, equivalent to about 20 per cent of its equity capital.Furlough schemes and other forms of government support have been lifelines. In cases where authorities imposed restrictions preventing events from going ahead, insurance has also been crucial, despite sometimes-limited scope of cover.About £65m worth of insurance payouts helped Hyve, another London-listed events organiser, return to profit in the year to the end of September.Pressure on organisers’ cash flows was also less intense than it might otherwise have been since exhibitors typically paid up front, said Dan Assor, an events industry consultant.He added that in some ways it was subcontractors — often smaller companies that provide equipment from lighting rigs to registration desks, as well as logistical support — that had been hardest hit.“The supply chain has been decimated,” Assor said. “Lots of freelancers have disappeared.”As in other industries disrupted by coronavirus, executives expect some changes to prove long-lasting.Mark Shashoua, chief executive of Hyve, said he expected a shake-out of smaller trade shows. Even before the pandemic, he said, there had been a “gravitational pull” towards the largest event in any given sector — a trend that the pandemic had only accelerated.“If the event and the sector was in the ascendancy before Covid, it’s recovering very fast,” he said. “If it was a second or third tier show, it’s not recovering.”Sarah Simon, analyst at Berenberg, anticipates that the fragmented sector will consolidate. “Short-term, in certain markets, there’s going to be continued disruption, which I think will flush out more of the weaklings,” she said. “There’s quite a lot of medium-sized assets out there that could be of interest.”Analysts said possible sellers might include Daily Mail and General Trust, which, as well as owning the UK’s biggest selling daily newspaper among other titles, also has an events business.Its portfolio includes ADIPEC, an energy industry exhibition hosted by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. DMGT was recently taken private by Lord Rothermere, who is said to be focused on the company’s publishing assets.Companies such as Informa are also trying to more fully exploit the data generated by such events. They have long encouraged delegates to use specialist apps, yet recent health and safety requirements have made online registration compulsory in some cases. Organisers are trying to sell participants more related digital services, such as delegate matchmaking and post-event analytics.Yet unlike conferences, or at least the onstage discussions that underpin them, trade shows cannot be easily recreated online. It is hard to feel the fabrics, as at the Pure London fashion show, or gauge the prospects for emerging mobile technology, as at MWC Barcelona, remotely.“You can’t replicate face-to-face,” said Assor, adding that the shows had facilitated commerce since London’s Great Exhibition of 1851.Chris Skeith, chief executive of the UK’s Association of Event Organisers, said the pitch remained straightforward. “The clue’s in the name,” he said. “They generate trade.” “You get your finger on the pulse on everything that’s happening in your sector — all your competitors, customers, suppliers are in one place at one time. It’s an incredibly efficient way of doing business.” More