Aurelia Butler

The Confederation of British Industry cut its forecasts for economic growth to 6.9% in 2021 and 5.1% in 2022 from previous estimates of 8.2% and 6.1%.It said the downgrade mostly reflected weaker growth since its last forecasts in June and the supply chain problems that have slowed the recovery from last year’s coronavirus slump were likely to end in mid-2022.With exports still weak, household spending would drive 90% of growth next year and two-thirds of it in 2023 thanks to a strong jobs market and savings racked up during the pandemic.Business investment looked set to grow by 8.2% next year and go above its pre-pandemic level but the bounce would probably prove short-lived with corporate investment falling back in mid-2023 when a tax incentive is due to expire.”One policy in place for 18 months can’t change under-investment over four decades,” Rain Newton-Smith, the CBI’s chief economist, said. The CBI called on Prime Minister Boris Johnson to introduce regulations to spur investment and innovation to help build new markets in clean energy and other sectors.The new forecasts from the group saw inflation peaking at 5.2% in April and remaining above the Bank of England’s 2% target for around another year while unemployment would fall to 3.8% by the end of 2023. The CBI’s forecasts were made before the emergence of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus which has led to tighter COVID rules. Rain-Smith said she was hopeful that Britain’s high levels of vaccinations would minimise the growth hit. More

The UK government is to begin trials next year of a “smart” customs border involving cutting-edge technologies that it hopes will reduce trade frictions for British importers.UK companies will this week be asked to submit bids to pilot the new system, with the aim of starting trials at a port in May, according to senior officials in Whitehall.The announcement of the plans, described as building a “Rolls-Royce system for moving goods”, come as the government prepares to begin implementing full customs checks on EU imports from January.Last week the Federation of Small Businesses, a trade body, warned that only a quarter of companies were ready to handle the new paperwork, including real-time customs declarations and pre-notification to UK authorities of imports of animal and plant products.To smooth the post-Brexit border, the UK has committed to spending £180m to build a “single trade window” system by 2025, which will streamline customs processes by enabling UK border agencies, including HM Revenue & Customs and health authorities, to share information in real time.

Among the ideas that are expected to be tested in the mid-2022 trials are shipping container seals that automatically alert the authorities when tampered with, and the geo-tracking of goods using GPS technology to catch any lorry making unscheduled stops or diversions.Officials said that in time, such technologies should help create highly auditable supply chains that can be easily monitored, allowing businesses to do more self-assessment than currently possible away from the border.They added the government hoped it would avoid the pitfalls of previous state-run IT projects by going direct to UK businesses and the technology industry. “We want big and bold solutions,” said one official.The venue for the six-month long trials is still to be determined, but will be a “live port environment” at which the port, technology providers and import-export businesses could demonstrate the effectiveness of the system.Ministers are expected to claim the new border as a benefit of Brexit, since the UK is no longer bound by EU rules. Last October, Lord David Frost, the UK Brexit minister, said Britain was “never going to adopt the same levels of checks” as the EU.However the EU is also in the process of devising a “single customs window” that could in the future reduce some of the burdens on UK exporters to the bloc. Experts welcomed the UK’s plans to use technologies to reduce burdens at the border, which HMRC estimated in 2019 would require nearly 200m extra customs declarations at a cost of £7.5bn a year to British businesses.

Sam Lowe of Flint Global, a consultancy, said UK dependency on high-speed, “roll-on, roll-off” trade with the EU was likely to incentivise Britain to digitise its border even faster than the bloc.“In the next 10 years the UK will probably have one of the most efficient borders in the world out of sheer necessity, which you could say is a ‘Brexit dividend’ of sorts,” he added.William Bain, head of trade policy at the British Chambers of Commerce, a business lobby group, said there could be benefits for trade facilitation if the trials proved successful, but the government should prioritise improving the EU-UK trade deal.“These trials should not be seen as an alternative to deeper customs co-operation between the UK and EU,” he added. “Further agreements are what is truly vital if we are to smooth the navigation of the GB-EU customs border for traders.”David Henig, a former UK trade negotiator, said any aspiration to streamline trade was welcome but he cautioned that the government’s record on delivery of such projects had “not been great” in recent years.He added even if bureaucracy was reduced on goods entering the UK from mainland Europe it would still be “far greater than seamless trade the UK enjoyed as a member of the EU’s single market”. More

In a mid-year review in July, the government projected real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of about 2.2% for the fiscal year starting in April 2022. With the spending package aimed at helping businesses and households weather the pain of the COVID-19 pandemic, it now estimates a tailwind of about 5.6% for real GDP from this fiscal year to next, NHK said.Japan has lagged other economies in pulling out of the pandemic-induced slump, forcing policymakers to maintain massive fiscal and monetary support even as other advanced nations dial back crisis-mode policies.The world’s third-largest economy shrank more than expected in the third quarter due to a hit to consumption and exports from pandemic curbs and global supply disruptions. Japan’s three massive spending packages to counter the pandemic have left it with outstanding long-term debt roughly double the size of its $5 trillion economy. More

(Reuters) -Tesla Inc has asked a U.S. court to affirm an arbitrator’s recent decision dismissing a former engineer’s claims that the automaker fired and defamed her for raising concerns about defective floormats and contracting practices.In a petition filed in San Francisco federal court on Thursday, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) said an arbitrator in a Nov. 3 decision found Cristina Balan’s claims that the company falsely accused her of criminal conduct in response to a 2017 Huffington Post article about her firing were untimely. In March, a California-based appeals court ruled that Balan was required to arbitrate the defamation claims because they were directly related to her employment with Tesla. The company on Thursday asked the court to confirm the arbitrator’s decision, which opens the door for Balan to challenge it.Balan said in an email on Friday that she would seek to vacate the arbitration award “due to fraud, corruption, bias … and manifest disregard for the law.”In a 2019 lawsuit, Balan said she was fired shortly after sending an email to Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk claiming contracts were being awarded based on friendships regardless of price or quality.Balan had also raised concerns about floormats in Tesla’s Model S curling up under the pedals.In a statement provided to the Huffington Post about Balan’s case, Tesla claimed she was fired for using company time to work on a personal project and illegally recording conversations with colleagues.Tesla had lauded Balan’s work prior to her firing, including crediting her with perfecting a design for a battery pack, according to court filings. More

Lloyd Austin, US defence secretary, warned that China’s air incursions by fighter jets, bombers and other warplanes near Taiwan appeared to be rehearsals for military operations against the country. “It looks a lot like them exploring their true capabilities and sure it looks a lot like rehearsals,” Austin said in a speech on Saturday at the Reagan National Defense Forum. Austin did not appear to suggest that China was preparing for conflict in the near future, but the country’s air force has significantly increased the scale and frequency of missions into Taiwan’s “air defence identification zone” this year. The military activity, coupled with rapid technological advances by the People’s Liberation Army, have raised concerns about China’s intentions towards Taiwan, over which it claims sovereignty. Some experts believe China’s recent rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal is designed to make it harder for the US to intervene in any conflict over Taiwan.Thanks for reading FirstFT Asia. Here’s the rest of today’s news — EmilyFive more stories in the news1. US allies convinced of Russian threat to Ukraine EU and Nato allies have swung behind the Biden administration’s assessment that Russia may be poised to invade Ukraine, following unprecedented sharing of US intelligence on Moscow’s military preparations.2. Musk being allowed to ‘make the rules’ in space, ESA chief warns Josef Aschbacher, the new director-general of the European Space Agency has urged the continent’s leaders to stop facilitating Elon Musk’s ambition to dominate the new space economy, warning that the lack of co-ordinated action meant the US billionaire was “making the rules” himself.3. Shareholders accuse Toshiba of overlooking privatisation bids Several of Toshiba’s biggest shareholders are accusing the Japanese conglomerate of failing to fully pursue talks with private equity buyers, and say they will ratchet up pressure on the board to revive discussions on a full buyout of the company.4. Singapore suspends crypto group over spat with BTS Singapore’s financial regulator has suspended Bitget, a prominent digital currency exchange at the centre of a row involving a crypto pension scheme claiming links to South Korea’s biggest boy band BTS.5. Didi to delist from New York and switch to Hong Kong Chinese ride-hailing group Didi Chuxing said it would delist from the New York Stock Exchange, accelerating China’s decoupling from US capital markets as Beijing cracks down on the country’s leading technology groups. The move comes less than six months after its $4.4bn initial public offering. Coronavirus digestThe public and policymakers are desperate for information about the Omicron variant. But will it take days, weeks or months?Passengers arriving in the UK will need to show proof of a negative pre-departure test, regardless of their vaccination status, from 4am on Tuesday.Merck has taken aim at Pfizer’s Covid antiviral pill as concerns linger over its own drug to fight the virus. South Africa is considering making vaccination against Covid-19 mandatory for access to public services and businesses as it tries to boost the take-up of jabs.Tools needed to sequence genomes are concentrated in richer countries, hindering global efforts to track coronavirus mutations.

The days aheadAung San Suu Kyi court verdicts The first verdicts in the trial of Myanmar’s ousted leader are set to be announced after being postponed from November 30. (Guardian) Narendra Modi hosts Vladimir Putin The Indian prime minister will host the president of Russia for a one-to-one meeting on the sidelines of the India-Russia Annual Summit, where 10 bilateral agreements are set to be signed. (Hindustan Times, Economic Times) Centenary of the Anglo-Irish treaty The agreement, signed 100 years ago today, ended the war of independence and set out terms for the division of the island of Ireland — learn about how it was done, and its consequences, in this excellent read from the Weekend FT. What else we’re readingHow migration became a weapon in a ‘hybrid war’ Governments are increasingly using displaced people to exploit Europe’s divisions and fears over migrants. Officials are grappling for ways to respond to weaponised migration alongside other coercive tools aimed at social and political destabilisation, such as cyber attacks and disinformation.

Migrants sleep on the floor of a logistics centre in Grodno, Belarus, near the Polish border © Maxim Guchek/BelTA via AP

Robert Dole, Republican senator, 1923-2021 If anybody embodied the politics of Washington in the last half of the 20th century — the good, the bad and the ugly — then surely it was Robert Dole, the former Republican senator from Kansas, who died in his sleep yesterday at the age of 98. How Europe can rival China’s Belt and Road EU’s new investment plan, Global Gateway has the unspoken but evident intention to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative. But it risks faltering without proper funding and explicit aims, writes Martin Sandbu. Life at the top gets harder for chief executives  As conditions in both the markets and the real economy get tougher, and leadership of big public companies becomes harder, writes Rana Foroohar. Rising numbers of corporate leaders are leaving their jobs as pressure intensifies from multiple directions.The problem with vanishing cash Claer Barrett is all for exposing children early to money and payments, but what worries our consumer editor is the invisibility of digital transactions. “Do children realise that actual money is being spent, or think this ‘magic card’ simply makes everything possible?” she asks as part of our Financial Literacy and Inclusion Campaign.Reader call out: Are you a teenager or do you know a teen who is interested in writing about finance? The FT is looking for submissions from budding writers, with the offer of a cash prize for the best entries. CultureDo we need another Princess Diana film? Maybe we do, actually. On the FT Weekend podcast, Lilah Raptopoulos speaks with director Pablo Larraín, who our film critic calls “one of the most consistently interesting directors in cinema today”. He explains the creative process behind his new film Spencer, starring Kristen Stewart as Diana.

Star power: Kristen Stewart as Princess Diana © Pablo Larraín More

Hello and welcome to the working week.The second week of December is a collection of anniversaries, and this year the stars align such that some will pass significant milestones. Monday is the centenary of the Anglo-Irish treaty, which ended the war of independence and set out terms for the division of the island of Ireland — learn about how it was done, and its consequences, in this excellent read from the Weekend FT. Ireland is a country transformed culturally and economically since the days of the founding of the Irish Free State. The same could be said for the UK, of which Northern Ireland remains a part. Both sides are still working through their relationship with one another, now with the backdrop of Brexit, and economically the past year has been a relatively good period for Northern Ireland, as the Office for National Statistics noted last month.Tuesday marks 80 years since the bombing of Pearl Harbor by Japan, which brought the US into the second world war. Expect substantial analysis of relations between the two countries, which have improved significantly on this key event since Shinzo Abe became the first Japanese prime minister to visit the site of the attack five years ago. Sometimes seven days are not enough. Now that December is upon us, I am looking forward to 2022 and what events are in store. What are the most significant milestones you face in the coming year? It could be global or local, economic or political. Email me at [email protected] dataInflation is a constant in a changing world, it seems. The FT has even produced a helpful tracker for you to compare countries. This week we will get further updates with consumer price index data from the US and China. The Fed will enter purdah ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which begins on December 14. But the central bankers will be meeting in Australia, Canada and India. These committees are unlikely to raise their rates, but it could be a different story in Brazil, which has entered a recession while battling to subdue a rapidly rising cost of living.Look out also for German factory orders, production and trade figures, UK monthly gross domestic product, production and British Retail Consortium retail sales, plus trade balance and the Jolts job openings data from the US. CompaniesIn a slim week for earnings calls comes a company whose brand is all about aspiring to thinness. Lululemon Athletica has been having a good pandemic, and analysts expect the good news to continue when the company reports third-quarter results on Thursday.Defence companies have been fighting a rearguard action against socially conscious investors, who are demanding greater transparency on their manufacture of weapons as well as their carbon footprint, as my colleague Sylvia Pfeifer reported last week. Babcock International, Britain’s second-biggest contractor, which reports interim results on Tuesday, included an FAQ for its shareholders on nuclear weapons for the first time in its last annual report. Investors this week will be looking for indications of progress on Babcock’s disposals as well as how the company is dealing with other challenges.Key economic and company reportsHere is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.MondayEurozone, France, Germany, UK: IHS Markit construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dataItaly, retail sales figuresGermany, industrial orders dataUK, Ben Broadbent, deputy governor, monetary policy, at the Bank of England gives a speech at Leeds university, entitled “Outlook for growth, inflation and monetary policy”TuesdayAustralia, cash rate targetBritish American Tobacco trading updateChina, France, Japan, US: monthly trade balance figuresEU, revised Q3 GDP dataGermany, industrial production figures plus Zew economic sentiment surveyJapan, Q3 GDP figuresUK, Halifax monthly house price indexUS, Federal Reserve consumer instalment credit figuresResults: Ashtead Q2, Babcock International H1WednesdayBrazil, Canada, Poland: interest rate decisionsEU, European Systemic Risk Board quarterly general meetingPoland, National Bank of Poland monetary policy council meetingUK, BRC-KPMG monthly retail sales reportUS, Jolts job openingsResults: Berkeley Group H1, Tui Travel FYThursdayChina, consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) dataGermany, trade balance figuresJapan, PPI dataMexico, CPI dataUK, RICS house price balance plus Recruitment & Employment Confederation and KPMG jobs reportResults: Costco Wholesale Q1, Lululemon Athletica Q3FridayAssociated British Foods AGMGermany, India, US: monthly CPI figuresItaly, monthly industrial production figuresUK, monthly GDP, industrial production and construction data plus trade figures and index of servicesWorld eventsFinally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week. MondayCentenary of the signing of the Anglo-Irish treaty, which allowed for the establishment of the 26-county Irish Free StateThe International Maritime Organization, a UN agency responsible for shipping safety and the prevention of marine pollution, begins its biennial assembly in LondonTuesdayItaly, Milan’s La Scala opera and ballet season beginsUS, 80th National Pearl Harbor Remembrance DayWednesdayFirst of the five England-Australia Ashes cricket test matches begins in BrisbaneThursdayTanzania, Uganda: 60 years since independence declaredSwitzerland holds indirect presidential electionFridayNorway, Nobel Peace Prize awarded in OsloUK, foreign secretary Liz Truss hosts a summit of foreign and development ministers from the G7 countries in LiverpoolSaturdayUK, government pandemic funding for Transport for London ends todaySundayUnited Arab Emirates, Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix at the Yas Marina CircuitSixth anniversary of the UN-brokered Paris Agreement on climate changeIf you want to keep up to speed with the day’s headlines every day, there is a podcast to help. Click here to listen to Top Stories Today, an audio news digest that gives you the latest news in less than three minutes. More