Aurelia Butler

Hello and welcome to the working week.Here in London, autumn has felt extra vibrant with a wealth of sunny, mild days, encouraging people out on to streets and parks carpeted with golden coloured leaves. But change is coming. Wednesday is the first day of winter in northern hemisphere countries, according to the meteorological calendar. The seasons are not the only things that will be changing. The next seven days will produce significant moments for several countries.Barbados officially becomes a republic on Tuesday. The ceremony formally ends Queen Elizabeth’s period as constitutional monarch, formulated when Barbados gained independence in the 1960s after three centuries as a British colony.Her Majesty will not be in attendance — owing to reductions in overseas travel rather than diplomatic reasons — so Prince Charles will attend as her representative. Barbados will remain a part of the Commonwealth.Elsewhere, Gambia holds its presidential election, there is a by-election in London — possibly providing an indication of the public mood after several missteps by UK prime minister Boris Johnson — and on a lighter note Germany embraces winter with the annual Stollenfest.December 1 is a key date for UK government policy changes. The taper rate for universal credit welfare payments — the amount withdrawn for each pound someone earns — will be cut from 63p to 55p on Wednesday. The move was announced by chancellor Rishi Sunak after he cut the £20 uplift in payments made at the start of the pandemic, a move that was heavily criticised.There are also a couple of landmark Financial Times events to mention. On Wednesday, the winner of the 17th annual FT and McKinsey Business Book of the Year will be revealed at a ceremony in London. You can see the short list of titles chosen by the esteemed panel by clicking here. The FT’s annual Global Banking Summit also takes place this week, from numerous locations, debating the future of the industry after the pandemic. Click here to register your place.One constant in this week of change is my interest in your views on this newsletter — email me at [email protected] dataStatisticians are busy at the end and beginning of every calendar month, not just every quarter. Amid the barrage of reports this week will be a chance to compare the state of leading economies through the manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers’ Index data, US employment figures and consumer confidence data, inflation reports for the eurozone and individual European nations plus industrial production numbers for Japan and South Korea. Watch out also for a rush of Turkish data — inflation, a Q3 gross domestic product figure and the country’s trade balance — which are likely to garner a lot of attention given the last week’s upset. The events schedule is also busy with the various Opec meetings, publication of the Fed’s Beige Book and testimony from newly reappointed Jay Powell on the Cares Act Relief Bill, and the latest OECD economic outlook report.CompaniesAnother season is drawing to a close: that of the quarterly corporate reports. There are just a few earnings updates over the next seven days — chiefly Toronto-Dominion Bank and easyJet. It has been a difficult pandemic for budget airlines, but easyJet’s revenues will have been helped by the relaxation of the UK’s cross-border travel restrictions in Europe.Key economic and company reportsHere is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.MondayEurozone, consumer confidence dataItaly, monthly producer price index (PPI) figuresGermany, flash consumer price index (CPI) dataJapan, industrial production figures and monthly employment rateUK, Bank of England publishes consumer credit and mortgage lending dataTuesdayCanada, monthly GDPChina, Caixin manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dataEU, flash eurozone inflation figuresFrance, Q3 GDP and provisional CPI dataGermany, monthly unemployment dataIndia, quarterly GDPItaly, Q3 GDPMicrosoft AGM (held online)UK, British Retail Consortium monthly economic briefingUS, monthly consumer confidence figuresResults: easyJet FYWednesdayEurozone, France, Germany, Italy, UK, US: IHS/Markit manufacturing PMI dataGermany, retail sales figuresMexico, central bank’s quarterly report on inflation and growth forecastsOECD economic outlookUK, British Retail Consortium monthly shop price index and Nationwide house price dataUS, Federal Reserve publishes its Beige Book, providing commentary on current economic conditionsResults: Royal Bank of Canada FYThursdayBrazil, Q3 GDPEU, industrial producer prices and unemployment figuresEuropean Central Bank’s General Council meets in FrankfurtItaly, monthly unemployment figuresUK, Q3 household finance reviewResults: Toronto-Dominion Bank FYFridayBrazil, industrial production figuresCanada, monthly unemployment figuresChina, Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, UK, US: Caixin and IHS/Markit service sector PMI dataEU, retail sales figuresFrance, industrial production indexUK, Office for National Statistics figures for profitability of British companiesUS, monthly unemployment and non-farm payroll figuresResults: Aurubis FYWorld eventsFinally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week. MondayCyber Monday, so called because online retailers prepare for a deluge of orders on their busiest day of the year in the lead-up to ChristmasIran’s talks with six world powers aimed at reviving the 2015 nuclear deal are due to resume in ViennaUK, British Fashion Awards ceremony at the Royal Albert Hall in LondonUS, trial of Ghislaine Maxwell, the former associate and girlfriend of Jeffrey Epstein, is due to begin in New YorkTuesdayBarbados, former British colony becomes a republic, ending the Queen’s role as constitutional monarch, held since the island became independent in the 1960s. Scotland, St Andrew’s day celebratedUS, Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs to hear testimony from Fed chair Jay Powell and Treasury secretary Janet Yellen on the Cares ActWednesdayFirst day of meteorological winter in the northern hemisphereIndia assumes the G20 presidency for 2022Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey speech at the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries ‘Delivering policyholder protection in insurance regulation.’World Aids Day marked by the UNThursdayUK, by-election for Old Bexley and Sidcup, following the death of James Brokenshire, who had been the Conservative MP for the constituency since 2010UK, Turner Prize for Art announced at the Herbert Art Gallery & Museum, Coventry — UK City of Culture for 2021.FridayUK, Michael Saunders, economist and external member of the Monetary Policy Committee, gives a speech at a Bank of England hosted event, ‘The outlook for inflation and monetary policy’US, self-imposed deadline for Congress to continue to fund government operations or face a partial shutdown that would be a political embarrassment for President Joe Biden’s DemocratsSaturdayGambia, presidential electionGermany, annual Stollenfest, celebrating the traditional Christmas pastry dish, begins in DresdenOnly total solar eclipse of the year — and the last total solar eclipse until 2023 — will be visible from AntarcticaUS, SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket launches a Dragon cargo resupply mission to the International Space StationSundayAnniversary of Nelson Mandela’s death More

AMMAN (Reuters) – Jordan’s Finance Minister Mohamad Al Ississ said on Sunday that the draft 2022 budget forecasts 10.6 billion dinars ($15 billion) in state expenditure and paves the way for a rebound in growth to 2.7% after the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.Al Ississ told a media briefing that Jordan had also last week successfully concluded the third review of a four-year programme of International Monetary Fund (IMF) backed reforms to help it restore fiscal prudence for a sustained recovery.Al Ississ said that the government had increased its local revenues last year without raising taxes through a rare campaign to combat tax evasion and by a major restructuring of the tax and customs administration that ended exemptions.It foresaw total revenues next year at 8.9 billion dinars, with 848 million in foreign grants. Jordan’s economy was particularly hard hit last year by the shutdowns aimed at containing the virus, with unemployment at a record 24% amid the worst contraction in decades.Inflation was, however, expected to rise to 2.5 % next year from a projected 1.6 % this year, Al Ississ said.Most state expenditure goes on salaries and pensions in a country which has among the highest government spending relative to the size of its $45 billion economy. The government has raised capital spending to 1.5 billion dinars, a 43% rise from the previous year to help spur growth and improve infrastructure to help attract more investment, the finance minister saidJordan’s commitment to IMF reforms and investor confidence in the country’s improved outlook helped it to maintain stable sovereign ratings at a time when other emerging markets were being downgraded, Al Ississ said.Al Ississ said debt servicing on 29.4 billion dinars of public debt would drop next year with a push to expand preferential loans and grants away from more expensive commercial lending.($1-0.709 dinars) More

Flight 201, an Airbus A350, from Johannesburg was initially set to arrive at Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International Airport on Sunday but was instead routed to Boston’s Logan International Airport, Delta said.The diversion “has to do with technical specifications of our A350 aircraft and the payload of this particular flight,” the company said in an email. “This can happen on ultra-long-haul flights when optimal operating conditions can’t be met,” it said.The Federal Aviation Administration told Reuters it would investigate the situation. The flight, which was initially scheduled to land in Atlanta at 8:15 EST (1215 GMT), was rescheduled to land at in Boston at 9:27 a.m. before departing for Atlanta at 10:40 a.m., it said.The company did not cite the newly discovered Omicron variant of the coronavirus, which has been detected in South Africa, as a reason for the temporary diversion. More than a dozen passengers on a flight from Johannesburg to Schiphol that landed Friday tested positive https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dutch-set-announce-findings-omicron-cases-among-safrica-travellers-2021-11-28 for the new variant, Dutch authorities said on Sunday. More

TORONTO (Reuters) – Canada’s top six banks are expected to resume raising dividends and share buybacks after nearly a two-year hiatus and report strong quarterly earnings this week, which could boost the sector’s appeal to yield-hungry investors even as stocks trade close to all-time highs.The market will also be looking for clues on the banks’ expected expense growth into next year as wage pressures intensify, and long-awaited improvements in net interest margins as interest rates rise. The “big six” Canadian banks – Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank, Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank), Bank of Montreal, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and National Bank of Canada (OTC:NTIOF) – on average have a dividend yield of 3.3%, according to Reuters calculations.That compares with the global sector median of 2.5%, according to Refinitiv data.The dividend increases, which would be the first since the country’s financial regulator imposed a moratorium in March 2020 that was lifted earlier this month, could range from 10% for Scotiabank at the lower end to 34% at National Bank, Gabriel Dechaine, an analyst at National Bank Financial, wrote in a Nov. 22 note describing the coming hikes as a “dividend growth tsunami.”The banks are also expected to announce repurchases of about 2% of their outstanding shares on average.”It’s going to be a significant (dividend) increase, and will help them reduce excess capital on their balance sheets,” said Steve Belisle, portfolio manager at Manulife Investment Management. “That flows through to better ROE (return on equity).”Even without the higher dividends or buybacks, Canadian bank shares have rallied to record highs, driven in part by better-than-expected earnings due to the release of reserves set aside to cover loan losses that haven’t materialized.LOAN GROWTH ACCELERATIONThe Canadian banks will be reporting their fourth-quarter earnings, with Scotiabank kicking off the results on Tuesday. Analysts expect adjusted earnings for the top six lenders to jump about 37% from the year-earlier period, helped by a pick-up in business and credit card lending, strong mortgage growth and continued reserve releases.An acceleration in loan growth is expected, as savings built up during the COVID-19 pandemic have lifted consumers’ and businesses’ purchasing power even at higher prices, with the broader economic recovery adding fuel to the fire, said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.The one blot on the horizon may come in the form of non-interest expenses. They could be 1% higher than in the third quarter, with much of the anticipated rise driven by variable compensation, and up 4% in fiscal 2022 on rising labor costs and continued investments in technology, CIBC Capital Markets analysts wrote in a note. Earnings from capital markets earnings could also decline, although higher-than-expected trading revenues could help offset lower investment banking fees, some analysts said.Profits are expected to be 6.6% lower than in the third quarter, largely due to releases of reserves, which are difficult to estimate and have driven better-than-expected results in past periods, and could again lead to positive surprises, analysts said.The banks’ improving revenue growth, strong capital positions and expectations for returns on equity to remain in the mid-teens for longer than expected are positives, National Bank’s Dechaine said.Wealth and asset management units are also likely to have seen further growth, as consumers continued to deploy cash piles they’ve amassed during the pandemic, Petursson said.”It’s really hard to see where the warts would be on the banks’ earnings,” he added. More

Brazil’s foreign minister has attacked the EU for “trade protectionism” and “myopia” after the bloc proposed a ban on agricultural imports from deforested areas, singling out France for particular criticism over farm subsidies.Brussels proposed a law this month which would force companies selling beef, soy, palm oil, coffee, cocoa and wood into the bloc to prove the commodities were not produced on land that had been deforested or degraded after 2020.Brazil is a major exporter of many of the products targeted and the EU initiative has reignited long-running tensions with the government of far-right president Jair Bolsonaro, which sees ulterior motives behind the bloc’s proposal.“What I can’t accept is using the environment as a form of trade protectionism. It’s bad for consumers [and] trade flows,” foreign minister Carlos Alberto Franco França told the Financial Times in an interview. “I think there’s a certain myopia from the EU.”The planned legislation was published shortly before fresh satellite data that showed destruction of the Brazilian Amazon had surged to a 15-year high, sparking fresh questions over the government’s commitment to protecting the world’s largest rainforest.More than 13,200 sq km was razed in the 12 months to July — an area over eight times the size of Greater London — representing a 22 per cent jump from the previous year, according to data from Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (Inpe). It was the fastest rate of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon since 2006.The figures have overshadowed plaudits Brazil won for its undertakings at the COP26 climate change summit this month in Glasgow, including a pledge to halt illegal deforestation by 2028 and a more ambitious net zero target of 2050. “The [deforestation] numbers are shocking. Brazil has a serious credibility problem,” said one senior western diplomat in Brasília. França described the latest forest destruction data as “surprising”, but said the numbers were “not as bad as they seem” because there had been an improvement since July. Inpe data for August, September and October of this year suggest a 28 per cent decrease in the number of forest fires.“There’s no Brazilian desire to hide the problem,” the minister added. “When there is illegal deforestation it is often linked to other crimes, such as labour infractions, tax evasion and money laundering. We are treating it as a police matter and this is delivering results.”Brazil is proud of its technologically advanced and highly productive agricultural sector and officials often stress that the vast majority of the country’s farm exports come from properly managed land in the centre and south of the country, not from illegally cleared forest in the Amazon.França singled out for criticism France’s state backing for its agricultural sector. “I understand the internal political reasons the French government has for supporting their farmers. It isn’t environmentally correct that they give [agricultural] subsidies. Because land and water are scarce resources and operating them inefficiently isn’t sustainable.“It’s better to plant here in Brazil where agriculture is increasingly technologically advanced than to produce in France.”Frictions between Brazil and its European counterparts have contributed to an impasse in the ratification of a trade deal painstakingly negotiated over 20 years between the EU and Mercosur, a bloc that also includes Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay.Brussels is reluctant to move ahead on ratifying the agreement because of strong opposition from some member states that believe Brazil in particular is not doing enough to combat deforestation. França agreed that the trade pact was “not moving forward”. A foreign ministry spokesperson added: “We are not the party obstructing the deal, Brazil is ready to move forward.”A low-profile career diplomat who has served stints in the US, Bolivia and Paraguay, França was previously head of protocol at the presidential palace under Bolsonaro. He was appointed foreign minister in March, replacing Ernesto Araújo, an outspoken ideologue of the Bolsonarista movement known for his admiration of Donald Trump, dislike of “globalism” and who was accused of hostility towards China. More