Aurelia Butler

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Hopes to restore U.S. employment to its pre-pandemic level, an aim of the Federal Reserve and the Biden administration, now rest on a recovery of jobs in New England and California, a potentially troubling fact for the president’s Democratic Party ahead of critical midterm elections and as the Fed plots a possible turn to tighter monetary policy.Data released on Friday show that through October employment in states with Republican governors was close to 99% of what it was in February of 2020, while Democratic-led states lagged, at roughly 96%. While state-level estimates can be volatile, particularly month to month, the apparently larger remaining job shortfall in Democratic-leaning areas echoes the choices – and political divisions – that emerged early in the pandemic. States in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic tended to impose stricter measures against the coronavirus and keep them in place longer, than Republican-led states in the South and West.Employment fell more sharply in those areas, and the gap has remained even late in the recovery. Graphic: State decline and recovery in jobs – https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-ECONOMY/STATES/jnpwexzkgpw/chart.png Recovery has come faster than many expected, but it remains uneven. Of 10 states that had more jobs in October of this year than in February 2020, seven had Republican governors and another six GOP-led states were within 1 percentage point of their pre-pandemic job level. Graphic: A still disjointed recovery – https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-ECONOMY/JOBS/jnvwexybwvw/chart.png The level of jobs alone doesn’t tell the full story, and on key measures like the overall employment-to-population ratio – considered a more complete measure of job market health than the unemployment rate – Republican strongholds like Texas and Florida remained well below levels seen before the pandemic crisis.But the job level does pose a potential challenge for Biden, with important Democratic states like New York and California still 5% below the pre-pandemic peak, and political battlegrounds like Pennsylvania also lagging. Until recently it seemed the Fed was intent on keeping monetary policy loose and borrowing costs easy for as long as it took to claw those jobs back.That aim may now be in conflict with the Fed’s other goal of stable prices, challenged by a run of inflation that is prompting central bank policymakers to discuss a faster move to tighter policy – which could slow job growth before areas central to Biden’s political chances are able to catch up.Those dynamics now appear as well to be central to Biden’s decision on who to place at the top of the Fed. Current Chair Jerome Powell’s term is expiring in February, and Biden is expected to make a decision within the next week on whether to reappoint him or replace him, most likely with Fed Governor Lael Brainard.The high inflation rate, which has persisted longer than policymakers had anticipated, is damaging Biden’s approval ratings and elevating the importance attached to his choice of central bank chief. More

(Reuters) – As President Joe Biden nears a decision on appointing a Federal Reserve chair, action over the matter continued to pick up on Friday in the U.S. Senate, which must confirm the choice, with a key moderate Democrat seeking time with the potential nominees and two more progressive lawmakers voicing opposition to the incumbent, Jerome Powell.In the absence of a decision, lawmakers have been weighing in themselves on the two known candidates: Powell and Fed Governor Lael Brainard. On Friday the White House said there will be “more to report early next week” on Biden’s decision, which has taken on added significance with inflation raging at 30-year highs and eroding the first-term Democrat’s popularity.[nW1N2S304H] Senator Joe Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat who has not yet decided which candidate to support, is seeking to meet with Brainard and would like to hold a follow-up meeting with Powell after speaking with him on Wednesday, according to a report by Bloomberg. Two progressive Democratic senators, Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island and Jeff Merkley of Oregon, issued a joint statement on Friday opposing Powell’s reappointment, saying he has not done enough to combat climate change, a topic Fed officials are focusing on from a financial stability and regulatory standpoint. “President Biden must appoint a Fed Chair who will ensure the Fed is fulfilling its mandate to safeguard our financial system and shares the Administration’s view that fighting climate change is the responsibility of every policymaker,” they wrote in the statement. “That person is not Jerome Powell.”Powell is still seen as having a clearer path to confirmation, with support from Republicans like Senator Pat Toomey, who have signaled they would oppose Brainard, as well as from Democrats like Jon Tester, who confirmed his support for the incumbent on Thursday.In betting markets, Powell’s stock has fallen to what traders on PredictIt’s online forum consider to be a 62% chance of confirmation, versus Brainard’s 40%.Manchin said on Thursday that he was looking favorably at the prospect of Powell being renominated as Fed chair after the two spoke and discussed his views on inflation, according to a spokesperson. Manchin supported Powell’s nomination the first time around, but has more recently expressed worries about rising inflation and the Fed’s bond-buying program. Merkley voted against Powell’s first nomination and Whitehouse voted in favor. Biden is expected to choose a nominee for Fed chair before next Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday, with Friday’s comment on timing from the White House seeming to confirm that timeline. It is not clear that Biden needs the support of the three Democrats to get his Fed chair nominee approved.Little distinguishes Powell, a Republican elevated to the job by Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump, and Brainard, a Democrat put on the Fed board by Barack Obama, from a policy perspective. Both generally favor a more tolerant view of high inflation in the aim of allowing the job market more time to continue healing from the broadside delivered by the COVID-19 pandemic. There are some 4.2 million fewer Americans on corporate or government payrolls than in February 2020.But the degree to which the inflation stirred by the reopening of the economy has persisted – and overshot the Fed’s 2% target by a wide margin – has complicated the picture and is raising concern among politicians, including Biden. Consumer sentiment has plunged – as have Biden’s approval ratings – and that may shift the White House calculus to favoring which of the two is seen taking firmer and earlier steps to bring the march of price increases to heel. More

The vice-chair of the US Federal Reserve on Friday opened the door to a faster withdrawal of its massive bond-buying programme, suggesting the central bank could take earlier-than-expected action to tame inflation. Richard Clarida said the Federal Open Market Committee could consider discussing the pace of the planned “taper” at its upcoming policy meeting in December. Earlier this month, the Fed began winding down its $120bn-a-month purchases of Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities, and said it intended to reduce them by $15bn each month. That puts it on track to remove the stimulus entirely by the middle of next year. At the time, the Fed said that it was “prepared to adjust the pace” of the tapering process “if warranted by changes in the economic outlook”.On Friday, Clarida reiterated his view that he sees “upside risk” to inflation and expects “very strong” growth in the fourth quarter of 2021.“I’ll be looking closely at the data that we get between now and the December meeting, and it may well be appropriate at that meeting to have a discussion about increasing the pace at which we’re reducing our balance sheet,” he said at an event hosted by the San Francisco Fed.A faster withdrawal of the asset purchase programme could pave the way for earlier interest rate increases given that Jay Powell, the Fed chair, has said the central bank would probably avoid adjusting its policy rate while it is still buying government bonds.Earlier on Friday, Christopher Waller, a Fed governor, said he would prefer a faster taper, which would give the central bank more flexibility to raise rates “if necessary”.“The rapid improvement in the labour market and the deteriorating inflation data have pushed me towards favouring a faster pace of tapering and a more rapid removal of accommodation in 2022,” he said at an event hosted by the Center for Financial Stability. The price of shorter-dated government debt has tracked policymakers’ every word and Clarida’s comments sent reverberations through the $22tn Treasury bond market. The yield on the two-year note, which is the most responsive to Fed policy shifts, jumped 0.07 percentage points from a low hit earlier in the trading session when Treasuries had been rallying. At 0.51 per cent, it remained just below a 20-month high hit earlier this week. Yields rise when a bond’s price declines.Implied rates on federal funds futures also rose following the comments from Clarida, with traders pricing in a full quarter point interest rate increase by the Fed by July.

US equities weakened following the report, with the benchmark S&P 500 reversing an earlier advance that had taken the index to within a hair of a new record high. The benchmark closed down 0.1 per cent on the day.Ashish Shah, the co-chief investment officer of fixed income at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said he believed the central bank was attempting to give itself more flexibility to respond to economic data, including the highest inflation readings in 30 years.“The Fed is going to become much more data dependent as time goes along and we would expect that policy uncertainty is going to rise as we head into the second half of next year coming out of the taper,” he said. More

Giving evidence in the historic setting of a wood-panelled room in the UK parliament on Monday, Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, was facing questions from MPs concerned that the nation was going back to the bad old days of high inflation. “We are a very long way from the 1970s,” Bailey scoffed, highlighting the differences to an era when inflation hit 24.2 per cent in 1975. The central banker was lucky that none of the parliamentarians had asked whether there were lessons to be learnt from the late 1960s, when the nation first began to lose control of prices in the postwar period, an era that some economists argue is being repeated now. Two days later, that historical parallel was amplified when the strength of new inflation figures surprised the BoE again. Prices in the UK were 4.2 per cent higher in October than a year earlier, the fastest rate of inflation for a decade, more than double the bank’s target and almost twice its forecast as recently as six months ago. Britain is far from alone. With inflation at multi-decade highs in the US, Germany and other advanced economies, the subject has shot to the top of the economic agenda so rapidly that what was a niche concern at the start of 2021 is now at the heart of politics. “For the first time in 30 years,” says Randy Kroszner, deputy dean of the Chicago Booth School of Business and a former Federal Reserve governor, “inflation has become the salient political issue.” Central bankers are facing criticism that they have lost control, politicians are blamed for a cost of living crisis and households sit at the sharp end, having to juggle higher food, fuel, energy, housing and general prices in a still uncertain economic environment. Few parts of the world are now free from worry about inflation, says Janet Henry, global chief economist at HSBC. “Global inflation is a consequence of an unexpectedly strong rebound in global demand against a backdrop of constrained supply,” she adds. This prognosis is almost universally accepted. But as Henry swiftly acknowledges, the diagnosis of excess demand in 2021 does not reveal whether the same inflationary pressures will persist or whether they will fade away, much as they did in 2011 after a global surge in food prices. A customer shops in a grocery store in San Francisco. Economists who worry that central banks are still underestimating the level and persistence of inflationary pressures are now calling for tighter policy © David Paul Morris/BloombergThat is where the real disagreements lie and central bankers, politicians and economists are increasingly forced to take sides. While the positions are not mutually exclusive, when it comes to inflation, “team transitory” is in an increasingly fierce battle with “team permanent”. Lawrence Summers, director of the National Economic Council under President Barack Obama, said this week it was “past time for ‘team transitory’ to stand down”.Transitory moment?The stakes are high. If policymakers wrongly fear that high inflation is again becoming ingrained into people’s normal lives, they will clamp down too hard on spending, weakening economies as they emerge from Covid-19, lowering incomes and destroying jobs. But if they fail to realise the true threat of persistent inflation, they will be forced to take tougher action later to eliminate the danger, just as happened towards the end of the 1960s with equally serious consequences.In advanced economies, forecasts for average inflation in 2021 and for 2022 have marched higher this year as economists have been surprised by the degree of price increases.In the US, the average inflation forecasts for 2021, compiled by Consensus Economics, began to rise sharply from 2 per cent in January to 4.5 per cent now. For 2022, the forecasts have risen from just over 2 per cent to 3.7 per cent. Similar forecast upgrades to inflation have been seen in the rest of the G7 with the exception of Japan, although they are now creeping up even there. The case put forward by team transitory is that these spikes in inflation will soon subside because they have been caused by one-off disruptions to supply or special factors that will soon abate, leaving this episode as just an unfortunate but temporary squeeze on household incomes. A Bank for International Settlements study this week highlighted how “pandemic-induced supply disruptions have clearly been a major cause of bottlenecks”, gumming up ports, creating shortages of key components in many manufactured goods and causing labour shortages when people had to isolate as a result of the virus. The authors, Daniel Rees and Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, added that a “bullwhip effect” of manufacturers hoarding some of these components when they could get their hands on them had exacerbated the problem for others. But once these bottlenecks are resolved, say the authors, prices will not continue to rise and might even reverse, limiting the period of inflation. This requires vigilance and nerve on behalf of the authorities to ensure households and companies do not expect inflation to persist and build those beliefs into their wage demands and pricing decisions. Team transitory, however, say the evidence for higher inflation expectations is weak and a small rise would, in any case, be beneficial because inflation expectations were too low pre-pandemic.Gita Gopinath, chief economist of the IMF, says that central banks were right to be cautious about dealing with high inflation because “we want to solve a problem that we’ve also been fighting the past decade, which is of too low inflation”.European central bankers stress that energy prices are likely to be temporarily high as a result of a shortfall in natural gas in storage, a lack of wind this autumn and geopolitical events such as the tension between Russia and Ukraine that has threatened gas supplies this winter. Things that are largely beyond their control. And these will act as a tax on incomes, reducing demand. Such one-off pressures have led Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, to argue against raising interest rates to deal with inflation. On Friday, she said: “We must not rush into a premature tightening when faced with passing or supply-driven inflation shocks.”Lydia Boussour, senior US economist at Oxford Economics, says that even in the US, a coming improvement in the supply of goods and labour will bear down on inflation next year. “We continue to believe the ‘triple P’ of pricing power, productivity and [labour force] participation will limit the risk of a price-wage inflation spiral,” she says.Permanent worry Most economists in “team permanent” do not dismiss these arguments and accept a transitory nature of some of the price rises, but warn that the temporary factors pushing prices higher are not the only force at work. Thomas Philippon, professor of finance at New York University Stern School of Business, says it is “only natural” for people to look first at individual price changes, but when it comes to the broader inflation, especially in the US, “it is not correct”, because it does not reflect the excess demand that exists. “When you hear ‘Why should the Fed react?’, ‘How would that help improve supply chains?’ suddenly you realise how people could get it so wrong in the 1970s,” he adds, referring to the policy mistakes in history when the authorities in most countries misdiagnosed oil price shocks as transitory, allowing price rises to become the norm that everyone expected. For team permanent, increasing concerns about the persistence of inflation stem from the sharp rebound in spending, often influenced by very large fiscal stimulus from the pandemic. This has not been met by an adequate supply of goods or labour, or sufficient damping from monetary policy, which is failing to temper demand. Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell. ‘Team permanent’ has accused central bankers of making a policy error in keeping their monetary stance on an emergency footing when levels of spending have been far higher than anticipated © Richard Drew/APRegardless of supply bottlenecks, global demand for all goods and for components where there are shortfalls is at record levels, with supply of semiconductors, a product with severe shortages, well above 2019 levels. Jason Furman, professor of economics at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and a former adviser to Obama, warns that the supply chain arguments are “greatly overstated”. “There have been some worsening of supply chains, like in microchips. But most of what people talk about with ‘supply chains’ is actually a huge increase in demand that does not elicit a commensurately huge increase in supply so drives prices higher. That is what is happening with global shipping and logistics where volumes are up, just not as much as people would like them to increase,” he says. With signs that some older workers have left the labour market for good in what is becoming known as the “great resignation”, these high levels of spending are adding to pressures in many countries, in moves that are unlikely to be transitory. Felixstowe port in eastern England. The Bank for International Settlements says ‘pandemic-induced supply disruptions have clearly been a major cause of bottlenecks’ in supply chains © Chris Ratcliffe/BloombergTeam permanent has central bankers in its sights, accusing them of making a large policy error in keeping the monetary stance in their economies on emergency footing when levels of spending have been far higher than anticipated at the start of the year.“Real consumer spending [in the US] is back to the pre-Covid trend, something that never happened after the global financial crisis,” says Robin Brooks, chief economist of the Institute of International Finance, attributing the recovery to a fiscal and monetary policy response that had been “so much bigger and faster”. But he accepts the picture globally is not consistent, with the US most clearly in the spotlight for having the strongest private demand and Japan least affected. Even if the picture is not as stark outside the US, economists who worry that central banks are still underestimating the level and persistence of inflationary pressures are now calling for tighter policy — scaling back programmes of asset purchases and earlier interest rate rises to take the policy foot off the accelerator and gently discourage spending. Shoppers in London Covent Garden. Concerns about the persistence of inflation stem from the sharp rebound in spending, often influenced by very large fiscal stimulus from the pandemic © Jason Alden/BloombergThis is the cautious approach, they say, because central bank credibility in price control takes years to gain but can be lost rapidly. Ricardo Reis, a professor at the London School of Economics, says that the key test now is “how credible and strong are the central banks’ commitment to bring inflation down to target”.The outlook is uncertain, he says, but that does not excuse central bankers from the difficult decisions they have to take. With a bit of luck and skill, their analysis and their commitment to price stability will not be tested, he adds. But these are difficult times and good luck is not guaranteed.“With some bad luck . . . central banks will continue as this year prioritising employment and financial stability over inflation, people will definitely lose trust that they are serious about keeping inflation low, wage bargains will start including cost of living adjustments, and we will move to a high inflation regime.” That would undermine the trust in the value of money, something hundreds of millions of people in advanced economies have not had to worry about for the past 30 years. This article has been amended to correct Lawrence Summers’ position in the Obama White House More

“I’ll be looking closely at the data that we get between now and the December meeting,” Clarida said in response to questions during a virtual event Friday.©2021 Bloomberg L.P. More

The boss of one of the UK’s largest logistics companies has warned of a “scrap” to secure lorry drivers for the peak retail season and predicted that labour shortages will last well into next year.Wincanton, which provides haulage and warehouse services, said subcontractors were charging as much as 40 per cent more than last year for HGV drivers, while wages for those it employs have gone up by a low to high single-digit percentage.James Wroath, chief executive of the Chippenham-based group that employs about 5,000 drivers, said the tight labour market would make this year’s peak delivery periods for Black Friday and Christmas extremely challenging.The problems were a result of “the perfect storm of Brexit and Covid” he said.The UK has an estimated shortage of 100,000 truck drivers, which has led to gaps on supermarket shelves and contributed to delays at ports.However Wroath was more upbeat on the outlook for next year. “The publicity around the pay is attracting more candidates. We’re more optimistic,” he said. “The whole issue is going to take six to 12 months to really flow through to have enough resources.”He added that Dave Lewis, the former Tesco executive appointed to run the government’s Supply Chain Advisory Group in October, had been instrumental in speeding up driver testing.In results published on Friday, Wincanton reported a 40 per cent rise in half-year pre-tax profits to £27m. Revenues increased 20 per cent to £690m.Shares in the group rose 3 per cent on Friday. Steve Woolf, an analyst at Numis, said the shares had been depressed by the industry-wide labour shortages but those concerns had been “overdone”, in part because most of its contracts allow for extra costs to be passed through to customers.Even so, Wroath warned that costs were likely to continue rising in a tight labour market.“I think pay rates and cost pressures will continue in order to ensure we have enough people,” he said. “We’re three to five years from solving those issues.” More

A senior UK cabinet minister said on Friday the government was “confident” that talks with the EU over the post-Brexit trading status of Northern Ireland could be resolved without a bust-up with Brussels.Michael Gove’s comments came as the EU and UK both reported progress after a week of “constructive” talks in Brussels over how to settle the long-running dispute over the so-called Northern Ireland protocol.Prospects for a deal were raised when Gove, secretary of state for housing and levelling up and a former negotiator on implementing Brexit, said he did not believe Britain would have to trigger the Article 16 mechanism to suspend parts of the protocol.Gove is among a number of cabinet ministers keen to avoid a potential trade war with the EU over the issue; chancellor Rishi Sunak has also warned of the economic consequences of such a dispute.“I do believe that there is a constructive approach that’s being taken by the [European] Commission,” Gove said at a meeting of the British-Irish Council in Dublin.Gove said that while Lord David Frost, Brexit minister, had signalled his willingness to use Article 16, “we’re confident that we’ll be able to make progress without it”. Gove was seen in Brussels as a much more constructive negotiating partner than Frost.Frost has been instructed by Boris Johnson, prime minister, to make a renewed push for a negotiated agreement in the run-up to Christmas; combative language has been replaced by a more conciliatory tone.Frost met Maros Šefčovič, commission vice-president, in Brussels on Friday to review the latest talks on the protocol, part of the Brexit deal intended to maintain an open border on the island of Ireland.It does this by allowing Northern Ireland to remain in the EU single market for goods, but this requires checks on shipments crossing the Irish Sea between Great Britain and the region. The Brexit minister argues that the inspections demanded by Brussels are excessive.Frost said on Friday that, while “significant gaps” remained between the two sides on most issues, the recent round of talks had been “intensive and constructive”.

He said that Article 16 remained “a legitimate” recourse for the UK government in the event that a negotiated agreement was not possible, but added that he wanted to “secure a solution based on consensus”.Šefčovič said there had been enough progress to continue the talks but called for a “shift into a result-oriented mode”. He added: “It is essential that the recent change in tone now leads to joint tangible solutions in the framework of the protocol,” he said.He said there had been “useful engagement at a technical level” on reducing customs controls by half. The biggest gap remains on agrifood checks. Sefcovic called for a “clear move towards us” by the UK. “Identity and physical checks would be reduced by around 80 per cent compared to the checks currently required,” he said.But the UK disputes that figure and is wary of allowing the EU oversight of production standards, a quid pro quo of the deal. London is also pushing for free movement of pets across the Irish Sea. More

The head of Germany’s central bank has set up a clash over eurozone monetary policy by warning that inflation is likely to stay above the European Central Bank’s target for longer than expected and may require a reduction in its stimulus. Jens Weidmann, the outgoing president of the Bundesbank and a member of the ECB governing council, told a banking conference in Frankfurt on Friday: “Given the considerable uncertainty about the inflation outlook, monetary policy should not commit to its current very expansionary stance for too long.”His comments jarred with those by Christine Lagarde a few hours earlier, when the ECB president told the same event that rate-setters should remain “patient” to avoid tightening policy prematurely, despite soaring eurozone inflation that is “unwelcome and painful”.“We must not rush into a premature tightening when faced with passing or supply-driven inflation shocks,” said Lagarde, indicating she expects the ECB to maintain a sizeable stimulus at its meeting next month even as other central banks reduce support.Their speeches laid bare divisions among ECB rate-setters ahead of their meeting next month when they are due to decide how many bonds to buy next year and to publish new inflation forecasts that will give investors a crucial clue about how close they are to raising rates. The ECB is increasingly diverging from other major central banks, such as the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England, which have responded to the recent surge in inflation by promising to tighten policy.Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, told a banking conference in Germany: ‘We must not rush into a premature tightening when faced with passing or supply-driven inflation shocks’ © Kai Pfaffenbach/ReutersInflation in the euro area hit a 13-year high of 4.1 per cent in October, well above the ECB’s 2 per cent target, prompting some investors to bet that the ECB would raise rates next year. But Lagarde said many of the drivers of higher inflation, such as soaring energy prices and supply chain bottlenecks, were “likely to fade over the medium term”, which meant “conditions to raise rates are very unlikely to be satisfied next year”.“At a time when purchasing power is already being squeezed by higher energy and fuel bills, an undue tightening would represent an unwarranted headwind for the recovery,” she added.Lagarde’s remarks knocked the euro, which was already being hit by investor concerns about restrictions to counter record Covid-19 infections in parts of Europe. The euro fell 0.7 per cent against the US dollar to trade at $1.284, close to a 16-month low, and lost ground against other major currencies including sterling and the yen. Against the Swiss franc it hit a six-year low of SFr1.048.Eurozone government bonds rallied on the prospect of ECB policy staying accommodative for longer, and were given a further boost by news of fresh German and Austrian restrictions being implemented to contain the spread of coronavirus. The yields on German 10-year government bonds, a benchmark for assets across the euro area, fell 0.04 of a percentage point to minus 0.32 per cent, the lowest level in two months.“The market is understandably fearful of further Covid-related disruptions and the impact that could have on growth,” said Lee Hardman, a currency analyst at MUFG. “That certainly helps Lagarde’s efforts to push back on expectations for early ECB rate hikes.” 

The Bundesbank boss expressed doubt about ECB predictions for inflation to fall back below its 2 per cent target in the next couple of years. “The elevated inflation rates will probably take longer than previously projected to recede again,” said Weidmann, who last month announced he would step down in December, six years before his term expires, in part due to his frustration over ECB policy.“To keep inflation expectations well anchored, we need to reiterate over and over again: if required to safeguard price stability, monetary policy as a whole will have to be normalised,” he said.When the ECB meets next month it is widely expected to announce that its flagship €1.85tn bond-buying programme will expire in March 2022. Investors are expecting the central bank to cushion the potential impact on bond markets by stepping up its longer-standing asset purchase programme. Having committed not to raise rates before it stops primary bond purchases, next month’s decision will provide a vital signal on the potential timing of the first rate rise.Weidmann pointed out that the ECB had become the biggest creditor to eurozone governments after buying sovereign debt worth almost a third of the bloc’s gross domestic product. “Central banks will come increasingly under pressure from governments and financial markets to keep monetary policy expansionary for longer than the rationale of price stability would call for,” he said. More