Aurelia Butler

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The tropical storm is located about 25 miles (40.23 km) southeast of Belize City, packing maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour, according to the NHC.The Miami-based forecaster on Saturday said that Nadine will then move across Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern Mexico this afternoon through Sunday. Weakening is expected after the storm moves inland, and it will likely dissipate by late Sunday, the forecaster added. More

The regulations aim to improve transparency and standardization of export control policies and to boost export control capabilities of items that may be used either for civilian or military purposes, said Xinhua.The United States says Beijing is supporting Russia’s war effort in Ukraine by supplying dual use goods, including microelectronics, that can help it build weapons. China says it has not provided weaponry to any party, and that normal trade with Russia should not be interrupted.The new regulations put in place a permit system for the export of dual use goods and create a list of restricted goods. Exporters of such goods will have to disclose the ultimate user and the intended use of the exported goods.This week Washington sanctioned two Chinese companies and a Russian affiliate involved in making and shipping attack drones and warned the two countries to halt cooperation boosting the Ukraine war effort. More

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Four accounts on crypto-based prediction market Polymarket that placed large bets on former President Donald Trump winning the 2024 election, and have been the subject of much online speculation, are owned by non-Americans or a non-American, according to a source familiar with the matter on Friday.Opinion polls indicate a likely close match between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in the vote on Nov. 5. However, the odds have diverged on Polymarket, with Trump pulling strongly ahead at a 60% chance of winning versus Harris on 40%.The trade was driven by four accounts that placed more than $30 million worth of bets, according to the source, confirming an earlier story in the Wall Street Journal.Political pundits and social media users have questioned whether specific high-profile Americans could be behind the moves.But Polymarket does not allow Americans to make U.S. election bets on the exchange, and the source confirmed that Polymarket’s users are international. The source said the company certifies all of its large traders to ensure they are not logging in via VPNs to obscure which country they are in.Reuters could not immediately determine if the four accounts represent a single trader or many.Given the size and impact of the bets, Polymarket is investigating the activity in partnership with outside experts, the person said, confirming the Wall Street Journal’s reporting. A $30 million bet on Trump on Polymarket would be equivalent to about 1% of trading volume on the platform related to the presidential race.Americans have faced steep restrictions on betting on U.S. elections online. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has previously rejected applications to offer contracts or derivatives that allow Americans to bet on elections.CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam said in a September 2023 statement that such event contracts would effectively turn the agency into an “election cop,” a duty for which the CFTC lacked a mandate.”It makes sense for the CFTC to have authority to combat fraud, manipulation, and false reporting in underlying commodity markets,” Behnam said at the time. “But it is impractical for the CFTC to combat them in the underlying market here – a political contest.”Proponents argued the contracts could be a valuable new financial tool to provide insight on the future.In November 2023, Kalshi, another betting exchange, sued the CFTC over its ban on U.S. election betting. A federal appeals court sided with Kalshi on Oct. 2, paving the way for Americans to start trading on political races just one month ahead of the election.Kalshi has Trump at 57% and Harris at 43%.In an emailed statement, Kalshi said: “Our stance on Trump’s surge in odds is that it’s all part of normal market activity. Trump is simply gaining popularity, and prediction markets aggregate information from a wider audience at a faster pace than polls.” The CFTC did not respond to requests for comment. More

In the note, the analysts say that with recent positive economic data pushing the 10-year Treasury yield into what they define as the “Soft Landing Zone,” investors may see stabilization in yields even as the economy avoids recession.The “Soft Landing Zone” refers to a trading range between 3.80% and 4.83% for the 10-year yield. This range captures scenarios where inflation trends toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and unemployment stays near its current levels, reflecting neither overheating nor severe economic contraction. As BCA’s analysts note, in such a scenario, the Fed’s easing of monetary policy would continue, but without a full-blown recession requiring aggressive cuts.Looking ahead over the next year, BCA forecasts that Treasury yields will gradually decline if the economy follows the Fed’s projections. Specifically, the 2-year Treasury yield could fall to 3.33%, the 5-year to 3.52%, and the 10-year to 3.84%, with the 30-year settling around 4.27%. These projections assume moderate easing by the Fed, with the federal funds rate drifting down to 3.625% by the end of the period.A soft landing would provide some relief to bondholders by reducing the upward pressure on yields, which had climbed amid inflation concerns and uncertainty about the Fed’s trajectory. This scenario offers a favorable environment for bond investors, especially those maintaining positions with longer duration. As per BCA, positioning portfolios above the benchmark duration and holding steepener trades (such as the 2-year/10-year Treasury curve) could be advantageous in anticipation of a soft-landing outcome.However, the note underscores that risks remain. If the Fed adopts a hawkish approach even in a soft-landing environment—perhaps by pausing rate cuts after an initial easing—the upper end of the yield curve could remain elevated. In that case, the 10-year yield might touch 4.63%, and the 30-year yield could reach 4.96%, near the boundaries of what BCA refers to as the “Inflation Scare Zone.”The analysts stress on the importance of being prepared for different outcomes. While they assign a low probability to an inflation resurgence, they warn that any sign of persistent inflation could push yields higher. Similarly, if the labor market weakens more than expected, Treasury yields might fall into the “Recession Scare Zone,” where deeper Fed cuts would be necessary. More

While inflation has retreated in many economies, the bank argues that now is not the time to become complacent. Recent developments such as faster-than-expected central bank easing, rising commodity prices, and persistent inflationary pressures point to the possibility of higher inflation ahead.This has already been reflected in the markets, with the US 5-year inflation swap posting its largest rise since early 2023 and United States 10-Year yields climbing more than 50 basis points in just a few weeks.In a note released Monday, Deutsche Bank outlined five key reasons why inflation risks are still rising.1) Faster-than-expected monetary easing: Deutsche Bank highlights that major central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB), have been more aggressive in easing monetary policy than expected.The Fed, for instance, cut rates by 50 basis points in September, and the ECB is expected to follow suit in October.”Although these decisions are understandable in the context of lower headline inflation, historical experience says that this is precisely the time to be cautious on inflation, given policy is becoming less restrictive.”2) Geopolitical tensions driving commodity prices higher: The recent uptick in commodity prices, driven by the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East and China’s economic stimulus, has also contributed to mounting inflation risks.Brent crude prices, for example, surged after renewed missile attacks between Iran and Israel, while China’s stimulus measures have boosted the prices of industrial metals like copper.As a result, “this uptick in commodity prices has taken away a source of disinflationary pressure that had been in place over the summer,” Deutsche Bank notes.3) Stronger-than-expected US economic data: Contrary to fears of a slowdown, recent US economic data has been stronger than anticipated. Nonfarm payrolls jumped by 254,000 in September, while GDP growth is projected at 3.2% for Q3.“Much as the stronger news on growth is welcome, it also means that economic demand and inflation is likely to be stronger than it would otherwise have been,” Deutsche Bank’s team cautions.4) Persistent core inflation pressures: Last week’s US CPI report showed that core inflation was running at its fastest pace in six months, rising by 0.31%.More troubling is the rise in the “sticky” categories of inflation, which Deutsche strategists point out could lead to inflation staying higher for longer.For example, the Atlanta Fed’s ‘sticky CPI’ measure saw a 0.32% gain, the sharpest in five months.5) Rising money supply growth: Lastly, money supply growth has also picked up recently, with M2 in the US growing by 2% year-on-year in August, the highest rate since September 2022.In the Euro Area, M3 money supply growth hit 2.9%, the highest since January 2023.“Although money supply growth is not the only determinant of inflation and it is rising from a low level, we saw in the post-pandemic period that it was a strong leading indicator that offered an advance signal that inflation could move higher again,” strategists said.In sum, even though inflation has eased to target levels or below in some regions, the recent shift toward monetary easing means investors should stay vigilant, Deutsche Bank said in the note.Geopolitical tensions and rising commodity prices could push inflation higher again. Over the past six weeks, growing concerns among investors highlighted the increasing risk of inflation, which could have significant market implications if it resurfaces. More