Aurelia Butler

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Special introductory offerS$79 for 3 monthsThen S$99 every 3 months for the next 12 months. FT newspaper delivered Monday-Saturday, plus FT Digital Edition delivered to your device Monday-Saturday.What’s included Weekday Print EditionFT WeekendFT Digital EditionGlobal news & analysisExpert opinionSpecial featuresExclusive FT analysis More

The forecast for an inflation-adjusted contraction, which the ministry is due to publish on Wednesday, follows a previous government projection of 0.3% growth this year after a 0.3% contraction in 2023.Last month Germany’s leading economic institutes downgraded their forecast for 2024 to a contraction of 0.1%.The economy ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.The ministry, led by Robert Habeck of the Green party, also plans to issue a forecast for 2025 economic growth of 1.1%, up from 1% forecast previously, and for 1.6% growth in 2026, banking on a package of government measures to stimulate growth, Sueddeutsche reported without citing sources. More

While the current escalation between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon raises concerns about wider regional instability, the broader global market impact remains somewhat contained for now. However, in the event of further escalation, especially one that involves Iran and the U.S., disruptions to energy supplies could affect oil markets and heighten global financial volatility.”We highlight the importance of diversified portfolios to limit the exposure to individual risks, but recommend staying invested to benefit from an overall supportive macroeconomic backdrop,” said analysts at UBS in a note.Given the potential impact on oil supply routes like the Strait of Hormuz, exposure to oil-related assets can serve as a hedge against energy disruptions. While oil prices have remained stable so far, any major disruption could drive prices higher, “damage to critical oil infrastructure could see Brent crude prices break above USD 100/bbl for several weeks,” the analysts said.UBS also flags gold as a valuable asset to include in portfolios during times of geopolitical tension. With gold prices rising nearly 30% this year, further gains are expected, driven by a combination of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cuts, seasonal increases in jewelry demand, and ongoing central bank purchases. Gold is seen as a safe haven during market uncertainty, providing a stabilizing effect within a diversified investment portfolio.Analysts recommend maintaining exposure to high-quality credit assets, which can offer stability amidst market volatility. While the Israeli shekel has weakened due to the conflict, placing additional pressure on the country’s fiscal outlook, global markets should still focus on broader economic drivers, especially if the conflict remains regionally contained. More

The world’s power systems are undergoing a profound transformation as electrification expands, clean energy costs fall, and the investment landscape shifts toward greener, more sustainable alternatives. The cost of producing clean power has dropped, with a reduction of around a third since 2023, making renewable energy more competitive. This price deflation is most pronounced in Asia, where energy prices are now lower compared to Europe and the U.S., marking a global trend.Morgan Stanley predicts that the power markets are entering a ‘new normal,’ characterized by higher demand and sustained elevated prices. The tightening of power markets is not just a temporary situation but a structural shift. As the supply of conventional power generation has lagged, particularly after the COVID-19 pandemic, this has created an opportunity for renewables and hybrid power sources to step in and meet the growing demand. Hybrid systems that combine gas and renewable energy have been outperforming pure renewables as they are better suited to respond to tight energy markets, offering more reliable power generation and higher returns.Key to this tipping point is the rapid deflation of clean power equipment costs. Morgan Stanley notes that the cost of solar and wind technologies has fallen, surpassing expectations. Equipment prices for clean power have dropped by 20-50% in the past year alone, largely due to new localized supply chains and technological advancements, especially in regions like Southeast Asia and India. This deflationary trend is fueling greater investments in renewables, as lower costs improve the profitability of clean power generation.This shift in supply chains is also a critical aspect of the current market dynamics. While China has historically dominated the production of clean energy equipment, there are increasing signs of capacity growth in Southeast Asia and India, which could diversify global supply chains. This trend is seen as a response to trade barriers and the need for more resilient and regionally focused production capabilities.The analysts emphasize that investment in power grids is crucial to supporting this transition. Grid investments are at an inflection point, with capital being directed toward modernizing and expanding grids to handle the distributed generation profile of renewables. This shift is vital for ensuring that the increasing share of renewable energy can be efficiently integrated into the existing power infrastructure. Morgan Stanley flags that grid-related investments are ramping up across all major regions, with long backlogs for grid equipment orders reflecting the growing demand for infrastructure upgrades.Overall, Morgan Stanley suggests that the global clean power sector is poised for continued growth and potential revaluation. With power prices expected to remain higher for longer, alongside declining clean energy production costs, there is upside for renewable power generators, grid operators, and equipment suppliers. This tipping point in global clean power represents a structural shift rather than a cyclical one, marking a crucial moment for investors and stakeholders in the energy transition.As such, Morgan Stanley forecasts that companies operating in this space, particularly those with flexible generation capabilities and strong renewable portfolios, are likely to see improved returns on equity and stronger long-term growth prospects.  More

Historically, commodities have performed well following the first Fed interest rate cut, particularly in non-recessionary periods. In line with this historical trend, Wells Fargo expects that lower borrowing costs resulting from these rate reductions will stimulate demand, contributing to the ongoing commodity bull market.The Fed’s decision to reduce interest rates by 50 basis points in September marked a pivotal moment, as it was the first cut since the pandemic shock of 2020. The immediate response from commodity markets has been promising. Gold prices surged to all-time highs of over $2,600 per troy ounce, while the broader Bloomberg Commodity Index rose by 3.4% within a week of the Fed’s announcement​. Analysts at Wells Fargo believe that these price movements signal the beginning of a longer-term trend, bolstered by a combination of global liquidity increases and improved borrowing conditions.Wells Fargo’s analysts emphasize that the absence of a U.S. recession further strengthens the case for a commodity demand surge. Historically, when rate cuts have occurred in a non-recessionary environment, commodity prices have consistently risen over the subsequent 12-18 months.Analysts predict that the current cycle will follow this pattern, with the added benefit of the Fed’s aggressive rate-cutting approach providing a supportive monetary environment. Additionally, they argue that the combination of lower rates and the Fed’s moderate approach will prevent a sharp economic downturn, further fueling demand across key commodities like metals, energy, and agriculture.Wells Fargo expects this favorable backdrop for commodities to solidify, with a continued focus on global economic recovery. The easing cycle initiated by the Fed is likely to create a new liquidity wave, spurring investment and consumption across emerging and developed markets alike. Analysts maintain a positive outlook on the Bloomberg Commodity Index, targeting a range of 250 to 270 by 2025​. More