Aurelia Butler

LONDON (Reuters) -British pay growth cooled in the three months to July to a more than two-year low and employment shot higher, according to data on Tuesday which is likely to keep the Bank of England on track to cut interest rates again before the end of the year.British average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, were 5.1% higher than a year earlier in the three months to the end of July, the Office for National Statistics said, matching the consensus in a Reuters poll of economists. It was the lowest reading since the three months to June 2022.Sterling ticked higher against the dollar briefly on the back of the figures, which were broadly as expected, before settling back again.When it cut interest rates on Aug. 1 after keeping them at a 16-year high of 5.25% for nearly a year, the BoE said it would continue to keep a close eye on wage growth. Investors see a roughly one-in-four chance of a September BoE rate cut.”The slowdown in pay is quite clear now, despite the effects of awards in the public sector this summer. This should give confidence to the Bank on the future path for interest rates,” said Neil Carberry, chief executive of the Recruitment and Employment Confederation trade body.In July, Britain’s new finance minister Rachel Reeves approved pay rises of at least 5% for millions of public sector workers.Most economists polled by Reuters expect the next rate cut to take place in November, rather than on Sept. 19.The BoE is more focused on private sector pay, which it forecasts will slow to 5% in late 2024 and 3% in late 2025.Excluding bonuses, private sector pay growth cooled to 4.9% in the three months to July – putting it on track to meet the BoE’s forecast of 4.8% for the third quarter as a whole.EMPLOYMENT PICKS UPBritain’s economy added 265,000 jobs in the three months to July, the ONS said, far more than expected by economists in the Reuters poll which had pointed to a 123,000 increase.But the ONS repeated its warnings about the flaws of the Labour Force Survey, which produces employment and unemployment data, but not the headline wage figures. The methodology is due to be refreshed in December’s release.A different measure of employment based on tax data, which some economists say may give a better steer on the health of the labour market though it is prone to revision, showed the biggest drop in payrolled jobs during August since late 2020.The unemployment rate in the three months to July fell to 4.1%, slightly down from 4.2% in the three months to June, and its lowest since the three months to January 2024.The data pointed to progress in reducing the number of economically inactive people of working age – a priority for Britain’s new Labour government – which fell in the three months to July by 136,000 from the three months to April, the biggest such fall since mid-2022.The number of people who were inactive because of long-term sickness also fell.The BoE also looks at other inflation pressures such as labour shortages, which leapt during the COVID-19 pandemic.The number of unfilled job vacancies fell to a more than three-year low of 857,000 in the three months to July, down from 1.3 million in mid-2022 but still higher than in early 2020. More

Frigo-Trans network includes temperature-controlled warehousing and freight forwarding capabilities, as well as a pan-European cold chain transportation solution, UPS said.Under the deal, UPS will also buy Frigo-Trans’ sister company BPL. The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2025, the package delivery firm said. More

Investing.com – Bank of America  has adjusted its projections for Brazil’s basic interest rate and now expects the Selic rate to close the year at 11.75%. As such, the expectation is that the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) will increase the rate by 0.25 percentage points next week, initiating a tightening cycle, according to a report released to clients and the market on Monday.
“We expect Brazil to increase rates while other central banks are cutting, which may further reduce the pressure for future increases,” the bank stated in the report.
Besides the increase in September, the projection is for two subsequent half-point increases and a final 0.25 percentage point hike in January, reaching a peak of 12% in January 2025.
“As the Fed and other central banks are expected to cut interest rates, there is a risk of fewer increases for Brazil. We maintain the view that interest rates in Brazil are already above neutral,” highlighted economists David Beker, Natacha Perez, and Gustavo Mendes.
BofA estimates inflation at 3.9% in 2024 and 3.6% in 2025. Inflation expectations, the dollar being above R$5.50, higher-than-expected activity levels, and the pricing of the interest rate curve are among the reasons for the bank’s projection change. They believe that the tightening cycle “should help re-anchor inflation expectations and reinforce the credibility of the Brazilian Central Bank.”
The economists noted the robustness of economic activity, with a strong labor market, credit acceleration, and strong demand, in addition to the boost from fiscal policy.
“We believe that local interest rates above neutral, combined with less fiscal impetus, will lead to a slowdown in economic activity,” the economists added, mentioning upside risks to their growth estimate of 2.7% this year and downside risks to their 2.5% forecast for 2025.
On Monday, the Central Bank’s Focus Bulletin report showed that economists consulted by the monetary authority raised their expectations for the Selic basic interest rate at the end of 2024 from 10.50% to 11.25%. More

LONDON (Reuters) -UK fund managers Schroders (LON:SDR) and abrdn named new CEOs on Tuesday, appointing insiders to reboot performance at firms running nearly 1.3 trillion pounds ($1.7 trillion) in assets against a backdrop of skittish investor sentiment and industry-wide pressure on fees.Schroders appointed current chief financial officer Richard Oldfield to succeed Peter Harrison in November, while abrdn – which had faced calls to break up amid shrinking demand for its funds – separately announced interim boss and former CFO Jason Windsor would become its permanent CEO.Both take over at a testing time for the asset management industry.Mid-sized British firms like Schroders and abrdn focused on active funds have been particularly squeezed by competition from cheaper index-tracking products sold by giants such as BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) and State Street (NYSE:STT) Global Advisors, as well as inflationary pressures on costs.Analysts say these structural forces are largely out of any CEO’s control.The promotions were described as unanimous choices by the asset managers’ chairpersons.Shares in Schroders, a 224-year old fund firm which built its business on transatlantic trade, have tumbled 21% in 2024 and were little changed on Tuesday. Abrdn’s stock fell 0.3%, bringing year-to-date losses to 16%. Schroders’ former CEO Harrison announced his plan to retire in April after eight years in the top role, prompting the largest UK standalone fund manager, which manages 774 billion pounds of assets, to hunt for a successor.Oldfield, 53, a seasoned finance veteran, joined Schroders last October as its finance chief from PricewaterhouseCoopers, where he spent three decades in senior roles.Underwhelming half-year earnings from Schroders in August underscored the challenge, after the company missed profit forecasts and flagged pressure on its margins.The firm started out financing trade between America and Europe, railways, ports and power stations and today is focused on managing money for pension funds, wealthy families and rich entrepreneurs. But even the richest of investors are now looking to pay less for investment services.Senior equity analyst at CFRA Research Firdaus Ibrahim said Schroders’ problems were significant, but a decline in interest rates offered some hope if they encouraged investors to look for higher-return products.The new CEO should position Schroders “to take advantage when the tide finally turns” by prioritising cost-saving plans, improving its products and considering M&A, he told Reuters.In the run-up to Tuesday’s announcement, Schroders had been linked with a variety of external candidates by media reports, including former UBS chief Ralph Hamers.BREAK-UPAbrdn’s Windsor took on the role of interim CEO in May, after predecessor Stephen Bird abruptly stepped down from a firm with 506 billion pounds of assets under management and administration.Borne from a merger of Aberdeen Asset Management and Standard Life (LON:ABDN) in 2017, abrdn has come under particular strain in recent years, reporting more than 10 billion pounds of outflows over each of the last two years, although this year it beat performance forecasts and has been axing costs.Since the merger was announced, abrdn shares have lost more than half their value. Analysts have previously said that a change in leadership at abrdn could re-ignite calls for a break-up of the company, which spans traditional fund management through to retail investing platform interactive investor.Windsor has a background in dealmaking himself, having spent 15 years at Morgan Stanley, although he told reporters in August that strategic repositioning of the group was not a high priority.”(Windsor) has made a huge impression both internally and externally since he joined abrdn, particularly as someone whose actions evidence he cares deeply about our clients and customers and our people,” abrdn Chairman Douglas Flint said in a statement.Ian Jenkins will continue in the role of abrdn’s interim group CFO and a search process for a permanent appointment to this role will now begin, the company said.($1 = 0.7641 pounds) More

TOKYO (Reuters) -Shigeru Ishiba, the former Japanese defence minister running in the ruling party’s leadership race, said on Tuesday that a complete exit from deflation is a crucially important task for the country.”I don’t think private consumption has recovered strongly yet despite some signs of improvement,” Ishiba said at a press conference where he laid out his policy pledges for the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) leadership race.”I promise to achieve sustainable growth in real wages to realise a full exit from deflation, so that people can spend without worrying about the future,” he added.The LDP’s parliamentary control means its leader becomes the prime minister of Japan.Ishiba’s comments are meant to counter speculation that he is more focused on fiscal discipline than economic growth, a ruling party source close to Ishiba’s thinking said.Japan, saddled with the industrial world’s heaviest debt at more than twice the size of its economy, has pledged to deliver a primary budget surplus by the next fiscal year.But calls for more spending are expected to grow as the LDP leadership race is likely to be followed by a snap parliament election.Another candidate, former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi, reiterated in a separate press conference on Tuesday that economic growth should be prioritised over finance.”I believe we should aim to raise tax revenue by creating a strong economy, which would in turn result in a sustainable finance and social welfare system,” Kobayashi said.He said that he would compile a stimulus package by the end of this year to ease the pain of those affected by inflation, including small- and medium-sized companies, if he were to win the party leadership race. More